Here We Go Again: Greece Will Be In Default Within 15 Months, S&P Warns

greece-athens
Athens, Greece, Nov. 2012

Here We Go Again: Greece Will Be In Default Within 15 Months, S&P Warns (ZeroHedge, Oct 4, 2014):

Remember Greece: the country that in 2010 launched Europe’s sovereign solvency crisis and the ECB’s own helpless attempts at intervention, which later was “saved”, only to default shortly thereafter (but without triggering CDS as that would end the Eurozone’s amusing monetary experiment and collapse the Deutsche Bank $100 trillion house of derivative cards), which later was again “saved” when every single global central bank made sure Greek bonds became the only yield-generating securities in the world? Well, the country which at last count was doing ok, is about to not be ok. Because according to none other than S&P, at some point over the next 15 months, Greek debt is about to be in default when the country is no longer able to cover its financing needs. In other words, back to square one.

As Bloomberg reports, citing Real News, S&P analyst Marie-France Raynaud said Greece can’t cover its own financing needs.

How is that possible? Isn’t Europe so fixed, it no longer has anything to worry about except deflation, pardon, inflation?

Guesst not. According to Bloomberg, S&P estimates Greek financing needs for the next 15 months to be at EU43 billion.

This is a problem because even if Greece sells bonds this year and next, sales won’t be enough to cover net financing needs. So maybe Greece will sell more bonds? Well, the problem with that is that the second the LIFO paradigm of bond investing no longer works, and the last guy in may be stuck holding the bag, nobody will want to buy 1 penny in debt issued by Greece.

The specifics: S&P estimates Greece will draw EU5 billion from intl bond sales, EU20 billion from internal mkt, EU12 billion from official lenders inluding the IMF in next 15 mos. S&P also forecasts Greece will repay EU3 billion in bonds held by investors who refused to participate in 2012 debt writedown, and if it doesn’t then Greece will following Argentina in being held in “contempt to court” fo cramming down foreign law covenants. Just kidding: that would mean the global legal system actually works instead of serves merely to make the rich richer.

As for Greece, it appears that suddenly the idyllic image of its recovery is about to be torn to shreds and the Syntagma riotcam will have to come out of hibernation.

Or maybe it won’t. In a case of populist pandering that Obama himself would be proud, at the same time as the S&P report hit, the Greek premier Antonis Samaras said in a Kathimerini op-ed that if political stability isn’t threatened, Greece won’t need emergency loans in few months, and will achieve final settlement on public debt. He added that liquidity in Greece will be restored after ECB stress tests on country’s lenders and that in stark contrast to what S&P just said, Greece doesn’t need new bailout agreement, no new loans.

Actually, it will. The backdoor left open by Samaras is that “achievements will be endangered in case of political instability, and if parliament has to elect president” adding tbat the “government will not allow those who want country to commit suicide to have it their way.”

In other words, Greece will default the second the people start protesting the crushing, and very simple math, and they decide they have had enough of the technocrat and appoint another president. Because, you see, it is not that Greece implemented zero reform, and rooted out the pervasive cooruption that saw billions in foreign “aid” end up in offshore bank accounts of the political oligarchy, or the simple math of sources and uses of funds: it is the danger of the Greek people returning to what they did best in those days of 2010 and 2011 when every other day saw a riot in the center of Athens, that will be the straw that finally breaks the camel’s back.

And thus we go back to square one, as we always said we would, when only timing was a matter of debate. Well, we now know the timing: T minus 15 months and counting to yet another Eurozone collapse.

5 thoughts on “Here We Go Again: Greece Will Be In Default Within 15 Months, S&P Warns

  1. Another very strong reason the EU will bend to Putin’s will and dump the dollar. Putin has been focused on a single goal……….regain the strength of Russia, including all the real estate. The EU needs Russia’s fuel, and that is going to be one of the reasons the EU will bend to Russia and dump the dollar.

    Russia has been waging financial war on the US because the US won’t stop interfering with every nation in the east. The war is about over, the US has lost, and the only ones who don’t seem to realize it are the leaders. The EU is the one structure keeping the dollar afloat.

    The EU made a huge mistake when they joined together. They did not make members open their books to forensic accountants. Had they done so, Greece would not be in the EU, and the EU would not be saddled with this mess.
    If it were just Greece, perhaps they might have been able to handle it, but it is Greece, Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Belgium, and Italy…….they are all in financial trouble.

    Germany initially thought they could help these nations out and gain great power over the EU using finances. All they got was over 200% debt to GDP. They finally gave that idea up. They are leaders in the EU, but their debt level is too high to do much more.

    DEBT. That is the inherent weakness of the west, the EU and the US, and this is why Putin is going to win. Who in the EU can save Greece? Had all these countries done what Iceland did initially, they would be better off.

    This started decades ago. I remember my late partner saying he didn’t understand the market any longer, all the players did was to pass funny money (stock, ie: debt) back and forth as if it were money. Yet, they kept making money……….The dot com crash was bailed out with a real estate boom, then in 2007, it all came crashing down. Regardless of all the happy horseshit talk, the US has never recovered. The money is gone, so all that was left were cheap and illegal ways to create money out of nothing…..more debt.
    This time, it won’t work. All the money is moving east. Go to USdebtclock.org, and click on world. Look at the debt levels of the UK nations, then, look at Russia’s. Their debt is about 36% of GDP, and they are the only ones, along with their business partners, to clean up some of the EU’s debt mess.
    But, one of the conditions will be to dump the dollar.
    The US cannot help, they are mired in debt, and the bankers are raising interest rates on all of them, including the government.
    The world is going to look very different in a few months.
    It does not bode well for the US.
    The US was the world power for a while, and they became the world bully. We have no friends left, and with good reason.

  2. The truth is nothing has changed in the 4 years. EU loans with IMF cover, only fudged the mess and prolonged it.

    This economic recovery all the bullshitters tell us about are classic examples of

    ‘The Emperor’s New Clothes’

    They know the truth, the BDI is still rock bottom, National Debt is just out of control and unpayable,ideal, unfiddled inflation is running at 10% in most western countries and unfiddled unemployment figures are running at between 10-25% in all industrialised countries as demand falls through the floor.

    It is a tangled web which is based on the established principles of borrowing funds created from thin air by spies called banisters, whose greed has now overwhelmed them and we must continue to scrutinise them.

  3. To friend Squodgy: Perhaps the EU is suffering from 10% inflation. The US is experiencing no growth to cause inflation, yet prices are going through the roof. This is due to the falling value of the dollar. It is falling like a stone.
    Simple household items are skyrocketing. Paper products, aspirin, vitamins……food, all are going far higher as fewer nations use the dollar.
    Today, 33% of the world nations now use the dollar, down from 100% less than four years ago.
    The only things going up are interest rates and the rigged stock market, although the stock market is starting to crack. When 85-90% are high frequency trades, skim and sell, that leaves real investors at 10-15%.
    In the years between 1929-1933, the market lost 90% of its value due to the rigged games they are playing again…..it will happen again, and it is October.

  4. Marilyn, when I studied economics at Grammar School & Uni, the term ‘inflation’ was used to explain the increase in price of any commodity, resulting from added costs, be they raw material, wages, tax or middle man add-ons. From what you say, it seems they’ve now fudged that definition to muddy those waters.
    I can’t speak for EU because they are such accomplished liars, having had the audited accounts ‘Qualified’ for 15 consecutive years, which means the auditors don’t believe a word of what they’ve been fed.
    Consequently one must dig to get the truth, as you know. But increasingly, as all fiddling, lying Governments adjust figures to create smiley images for the non thinkers, by excluding mortgage interest, value added tax adjustments, food prices and gasoline, it is easy to see the deliberately adjusted smokescreen to hide the obvious and minimise unrest, it is increasingly difficult to find the truth.
    Growth, on the other hand is a bankster created ‘Happy Flag’ based on increased economic activity as indicated by demand and flow of ‘money’ and calculated using total sales, wages, exports, imports and Uncle Tom Cobbly, in other words, as a true indicator of the health of a country, it is absolutely worthless. To emphasise that point, one need look no further than UK and Italy, where, to shore up absolutely dismal reality, they have now decided to include DRUG money and PROSTITUTION in the indicators of economic growth. Both were and still are ILLEGAL activities. You just can’t make this shit up, can you?
    Like I said many times before, we are in a slump. I am presently sightseeing, staying in motels offering B&B for 50USD for two or even a family with kids, unheard of! But they have to get income. It’s already dropping to 40USD for near future bookings.
    Growth is an economic illusion created by banksters for banksters. To achieve what banksters call growth, a business must increase its activity, or productivity, and to do this it MUST borrow…….from the banksters, on which the borrower gives them interest on the loan they created literally from thin air, and for which the bankster will take the borrower’s house deeds as security. The businessman is in a pincer trap, because if he doesn’t comply with the bankster’s next tranche of demands for growth, they start to withdraw support, and that leads to the downward spiral resulting in him losing his home….nice.
    The late Richard Dowthwaite was absolutely right, when he labelled Growth an Illusion, and he was understandably trashed by the establishment (read banksters) for doing so. Just like Andrew Wakefield was for outing MMR problems. Sickening, bloody sickening.

  5. we only saved Germany. Samaras, actually signed off some shitty deal so as to help the German banks not face some toxic derivatives and Greek debt, not “exploding” in their hands and “we” bought it back, in exchange for them lending us for a few more months with some crazy “interest rates” like 5 % ? why would thy just issue us credit cards really …. i really don’t care, you know what. $#$# em – i ‘ll go fishing and they can all kiss me #@$%#$# ! you can have your wars. the financial system is set to fail altogether soon. Too much greed. it’s irreversible. it’s unsustainable.

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