A friend who had been in military intelligence many years ago told me that he heard the following on the news yesterday:
According to the IEC (Independent Electoral Commission), 1 million voters “disappeared” from the voters rolls in the period 2004-2006.
Then he saw a news item about new statistics released from Stats SA. (NB: Stats SA is also not shy to hide and downplay figures to some degree – so their figures tend to be very conservative). According to Stats SA 40,000 people between the ages 25-49 die in South Africa per month, MOSTLY FROM HIV/AIDS AND RELATED DISEASES.
So, a quick calculation shows that that means close to 480,000 people die each year in South Africa from AIDS related diseases.
My friend wondered whether the 1 million people who disappeared off the voters roll in a period of 2 years had done so because they had died of AIDS??? That’s a pretty interesting observation. And most of those who die, we must remember, also vote for the ruling party.
So the two of us mused that based on those numbers, it would mean that approximately 2.5 million people will have died of AIDS between the 2004 and the 2009 elections. At least 1.6 million of those would have voted for the current ruling party, the ANC.
My friend wondered if it would affect the elections. I said to him that even the dead vote for the ANC and I’m sure it would not affect them. Like Mugabe they will see to it that the corpses vote for them.
These numbers are interesting though, and they prove a lot true that I’ve mentioned before.
Years ago on AfricanCrisis, I mentioned that by 2003, 370,000 people would die from AIDS in South Africa annually. That is more than 1,000 people PER DAY! But this number is now exceeded. It is now in excess of 1,300 per day.
In 2006, I spotted a CIA Factbook estimate on AIDS in SA. The CIA also goes with the estimate that 370,000 people died of AIDS in SA in 2003. The CIA estimated that South Africa’s population would eventually start declining by 0.4% per annum. See: AIDS in S.Africa according to the CIA Fact Book
In 2007, I revisited the CIA Fact Book. I guessed that the actual death rate must be much higher by now, perhaps 700,000. Perhaps I guessed too high? Well, we’ll see in the future what statistics come up. See: Shocker: The CIA Factbook on AIDS in S.Africa, Zimbabwe, etc
In South Africa they downplay the actual figures. In May 2008, in this story they claimed 370,000 people would die from AIDS this year. See: New stats show millions more HIV positive This is nonsense because if the figure was 370,000 5 years ago, then by now it must be much higher.
The Actuarial society also released very downplayed figures. They said 5.6 million were HIV+. But I recall, about 5-6 years ago, speaking to my doctor. He said that there were probably 8-9 million HIV+ people in SA then already! The Actuarial society says that 510,000 will be infected with HIV this year. Their figures can be seen here: HIV estimated at 5,6m
Stats SA is now already using the figure of 480,000 per annum, and that too is most probably conservative too.
Everyone is trying to downplay and lie about the real stats. Chances are, my thumb-suck guess of 700,000 might not be all that far off the mark. I’d guess that if Stats SA says 480,000 – then don’t be surprised if the real figure is 600,000.
I checked the CIA Fact Book again. Here is the link: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-…
According to the CIA Fact book, 5.3 million people were HIV+ in South Africa back in 2003 – the same figures the Actuarial society is now giving out – 5 years later! And the death rate estimated by the CIA for 2003 is the same death rate (370,000) that the Actuarial society gives out now.
So in all, it seems as if these “new” figures are really very out of date.
So… don’t be surprised if 600,000 people are dying of AIDS now. We will revisit this issue in the future.
Posted By: Jan, AfricanCrisis Webmaster
Date Posted: Sunday 31-Aug-2008