Apr 10

china russia flags

- It’s On: Gazprom Prepares “Symbolic” Bond Issue In Chinese Yuan (ZeroHedge, April 10, 2014):

Curious what the fate of the petrodollar is? Look no farther than this Interfax update blasted moments ago by Bloomberg: “Gazprom Considers ‘Symbolic’ Yuan Bond Issue, Interfax Says.”

Bloomberg adds that the gas giant is considering proposals from potential organizers to market bonds in yuan, Interfax reports, citing people with knowledge of the matter.

  • Gazprom unlikely be able to gain more than $300m due to mkt volume, newswire reports
  • No mandates, deal timeline yet
  • Issue may add new investors, become a “topical” public relations act amid tensions with U.S., EU

Well, yes. It’s called “symbolic” for a reason. More importantly, it is a symbol of what happens when one can “create” money de novo without the presence of the world’s increasingly defunct reserve currency, either secured by gas or by future cash flows, i.e., unsecured.

Confused? Read: Continue reading »

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Apr 09

- 40 Central Banks Are Betting This Will Be The Next Reserve Currency (ZeroHedge, April 8, 2014):

As we have discussed numerous times, nothing lasts forever – especially reserve currencies – no matter how much one hopes that the status-quo remains so, in the end the exuberant previlege is extorted just one too many times. Headline after headlines shows nations declaring ‘interest’ or direct discussions in diversifying away from the US dollar… and as SCMP reports, Standard Chartered notes that at least 40 central banks have invested in the Yuan and several more are preparing to do so. The trend is occurring across both emerging markets and developed nation central banks diversifiying into ‘other currencies’ and “a great number of central banks are in the process of adding yuan to their portfolios.” Perhaps most ominously, for king dollar, is the former-IMF manager’s warning that “The Yuan may become a de facto reserve currency before it is fully convertible.”

The infamous chart that shows nothing lasts forever…

Nothing lasts forever… (especially in light of China’s recent comments)

Reserve Currency Status

As The South China Morning Post reports, Jukka Pihlman, Standard Chartered’s Singapore-based global head of central banks and sovereign wealth funds (who formerly worked at the International Monetary Fund advising central banks on asset-management issues), notes that:

At least 40 central banks have invested in the yuan and several others are preparing to do so, putting the mainland currency on the path to reserve status even before full convertibility

The US dollar remains in charge (for now)…but Continue reading »

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Mar 29

group

- The PBOC and Bundesbank Sign Pact to Turn Frankfurt into Yuan Hub….Meanwhile Obama Heads to Saudi Arabia (Liberty Blitzkrieg, March 28, 2014):

I haven’t paid too much attention as of late to agreements between China and other nations intended to expand the use of the yuan (renminbi) internationally, because the near-term implications always seem to be exaggerated by many market commentators. That said, this deal between the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and Germany’s Bundesbank seems quite significant given the importance of Germany within the global economy generally and the E.U. specifically.

From Bloomberg via BusinessWeek:

Germany’s Bundesbank and the People’s Bank of China agreed to cooperate in the clearing and settling of payments in renminbi, paving the way for Frankfurt to corner a share of the offshore market.

Continue reading »

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Mar 26

- China’s Yuan Drops Most In A Week As Property Developers Tumble (ZeroHedge, March 25, 2014):

When we left China last night, it was all shits and giggles that bad news is great news and a Chinese stimulus plan will be here any minute to save the day. Having realized the sad fact that is not going to happen (as we explained here most recently) and the specter of banks runs looming, this evening’s session has seen property developer stocks tumble – retracing all of last night’s losses – the Yuan plunges by the most in a week back above 6.2150. Copper is holding in for now at the magic $300 level but corporate bond prices are falling once again (worst run in 4 months).

The Yuan is dumping at its fastest rate in a week…erasing all the hope-strewn gains from yesterday

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Property Developers are taking it on the chin…

20140325_CHIN2

And it’s no wonder, as Bloomberg notes… Continue reading »

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Mar 23

- Russia Returns Favor, Sees Chinese Yuan As World Reserve Currency (ZeroHedge, March 23, 2014):

Following China’s unwillingness to vote against Russia at the UN and yesterday’s news that China will sue Ukraine for $3bn loan repayment, it seems Russia is returning the favor. Speaking at the Chinese Economic Development Forum, ITAR-TASS reports, the Chief Economist of Russia’s largest bank stated that “China’s Yuan may become the third reserve currency in the in the future.”

Managing Director and Chief Economist of investment company Sberbank Yevgeny Gavrilenkov said at the 15th governmental Chinese economic development forum in the Chinese capital on Sunday (via ITAR-TASS): Continue reading »

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Mar 21

- Kiwi starts direct trading with renminbi from today (The National Business Review, March 19, 2014):

Direct trading in the Chinese and New Zealand currencies starts today after a joint announcement in Beijing by Premier Li Keqiang and Prime Minister John Key as he began an official visit.

The long-awaited move means the kiwi joins the Australian and US dollars and the Japanese yen as the four market-making currencies that can be converted directly into renminbi (RMB) or yuan.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) says a reference rate for the currencies will be announced daily at 9:15am in Shanghai, with yuan moves limited to 3% on either side of the fixing.

Continue reading »

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Mar 18

- Yuan Tumbles To 11-Month Lows As China Home Price Growth Slows (ZeroHedge, March 17, 2014):

It would appear that the widening of the daily trading bands (we discussed last night) are having a directional effect on USDCNY as the devaluation continues on the back of forced carry-trade unwinds. At 6.19, CNY is its weakest in 11 months (2.5% weaker than its lows in January) and the last 2 months have seen by far the biggest weakening in the currency on record. This ‘implied’ easing is modestly supporting the stock market and copper for now (though we suspect that is more spillover from risk-on squeezes post-Ukraine). While Goldman and BofA are adamant that widening the bands will not mean a change in trend overall, it seems clear that hot money is outflowing and driving a trend change anyway as corporate bond prices are not rising and home-price appreciation is slowing in the major cities.

USDCNY drops 100 pips to 6.19 – lowest in 11 months…

20140117_cny

Continue reading »

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Feb 28

- China Currency Plunges Most In Over 5 Years, Biggest Weekly Loss Ever: Yuan Carry Traders Crushed (ZeroHedge, Feb 27, 2014):

And just like that the Chinese yuan devaluation has shifted away from the merely “orderly.”

In the past few hours of trading, China, which as we reported two days ago has started intervening aggressively in the Yuan market (for the reasons why, read this), has seen its currency crash by nearly 0.9%, which may not seem like much, but is in fact the largest drop since December of 2008, and at last check was trading at around 6.18, even as the PBOC fixed the CNY reference rate 0.02% higher from the last official close to 6.1214, erasing pivot support point at 6.1346 and 6.1408.  Naturally this means that the obverse, the CNYUSD, has crashed to as low as 0.1620. Should this move sustain without reverting, this will be the biggest weekly loss ever!

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Feb 25

- Welcome To The Currency Wars, China (Yuan Devalues Most In 20 Years) (ZeroHedge, Feb 25, 2014)

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Jan 28

- Nigeria Central Bank Diversifies Reserves: Sells Dollars, Buys Chinese Yuan (ZeroHedge, Jan 28, 2014):

It seems the “dollar is a reserve currency for ever and ever” propaganda has not reached Africa, also known as Southern China as explained here two years ago, where moments ago the Central Bank of Nigeria issued the following surprise announcement:

  • CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA TO SELL DOLLARS TO DIVERSIFY RESERVES
  • NIGERIA CENTRAL BANK TO RAISE SHARE OF YUAN TO 7% FROM 2%
  • NIGERIA CENTRAL BANK TO DIVERSIFY RESERVES INTO YUAN
  • NIGERIA CENTRAL BANK CONSIDERING DIM SUM BOND: MOGHALU

But why would anyone buy Yuan when there are so many ever-more diluted dollars available? And now, let’s open it up for the most creative Nigerian email scam involving Chinese Yuan…

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Dec 16

crash-dollar

- Yet Another Massive Nail In The Dollar’s Coffin (ZeroHedge, Dec 14, 2013):

Two years ago, the CME announced USD/CNH futures trading enabling speculation (and hedging or risk transfer) of offshore Chinese Renminbi. On the other side of the world this week, a couple of gentlemen that few people have ever heard of signed an agreement that has massive consequences for the global financial system. It was a Memorandum of Understanding signed by representatives of the Singapore Exchange and Hong Kong Exchange. Their aim – to combine their forces in rolling out more financial products denominated in Chinese renminbi. This is huge…

Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

Hong Kong and Singapore are THE two dominant financial centers in Asia. For years they’ve been locked in competition with one another, much like New York and London. So their public partnership is a very big deal… indicative of the clear objective they have in front of them.

Bottom line – finance executives in Asia see the writing on the wall. They can see that the dollar is in a period of terminal decline, and it’s clear that the Chinese renminbi is going to take tremendous market share away from the dollar. They want a big piece of the action.

The renminbi has already surpassed the euro to become the #2 most-used currency in the world when it comes to trade settlement, according to a report released yesterday by the Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT). Continue reading »

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Sep 14

- ‘China is taking a leap forward to control world currency’ (RT, Sep 11, 2013):

It is obvious that China is up to something hoarding gold like a dragon. In fact, it is taking a leap forward to control the world currency and to replace it with the yuan, Dr. Thorsten Pattberg, China expert at the Peking University, told RT.

China is vowing to make more reforms, among them cutting red tape and establishing the yuan as a world currency. The 7th Annual Meeting of the New Champions is opening in the Chinese city of Dalian, the gathering has become known as a ‘summer Davos’. RT has talked to Dr. Pattberg about China’s prospects for introducing a new world currency. Continue reading »

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Jul 06

- Bundesbank Warns China’s Currency “On Its Way To Becoming Global Reserve Currency” (ZeroHedge, July 6, 2013):

Following the most recent shift ‘away’ from a USD-centric world (with the China-Australia direct currency convertibility), it seems the possibility of China’s Yuan as the next global reserve currency is getting closer. The Brits, Germans, and now the Swiss (who just signed a free-trade-agreement with China) are all actively vying to become Europe’s Yuan trading hub as it seems the long line of developments to internationalize the currency over the past two years. As Bundesbank board member Joachim Nagel noted in a speech entitled “Reniminbi as a potential reserve currency” this week, “the Chinese currency is well on its way to becoming one of the future global reserve currencies.” He noted that, although the USD is still the most commonly-used currency for settling trade with China; from virtually zero in 2010, the Yuan is used to settle over 12% of trading transactions now – and is likley to increase further.

Remember, nothing lasts forever: Continue reading »

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Jun 06

- Does China Plan To Back The Yuan With Gold And Make It The Primary Global Reserve Currency? (Economic Collapse June 4, 2013):

What in the world is China up to?  Why are the Chinese hoarding so much gold?  Does China plan to back the yuan with gold and turn it into a global reserve currency?  Could it be possible that China actually intends for the yuan to eventually replace the U.S. dollar as the primary reserve currency of the planet?  Most people in the western world assume that China just wants a “seat at the table” and is content to let the United States run the show.  But that isn’t the case at all.  The truth is that China doesn’t just want to compete with the United States.  Rather, China actually plans to replace the United States as the dominant economic power on the planet.  In fact, China already accounts for more global trade than the United States does.  So what would happen one day if China announced that it was backing the yuan with gold and that it would no longer be using the U.S. dollar in international trade?  It would cause a financial shift so cataclysmic that it is hard to even imagine.  Most of those that write about the “death of the U.S. dollar” usually fail to point out that China is holding a lot of the cards as far as the fate of the dollar is concerned.  China owns about a trillion dollars of our debt, China is the second largest economy on the planet, and nobody uses the dollar in international trade more than China does except for the United States.  Up until now, China has had to use the U.S. dollar in international trade because there has not been an attractive alternative.  But a gold-backed yuan would change all of that very rapidly.

And without a doubt, the Chinese government has already been very busy promoting the use of the yuan in international trade.  In a recent note, John McCormick of RBS Group stated the following…

Financial crises in the US and Europe mean the world needs a new, more stable global reserve currency, and trade in RMB is growing rapidly. In the FX market, for example, our figures show that volumes are now worth around USD 5-6 billion daily – double what they were a year ago.

A number of factors suggest that the Chinese authorities want to make RMB internationalisation happen by 2015.

For China, having a global reserve currency is not just about economics.  It is also about power.

McCormick ended his recent note this way… Continue reading »

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Apr 15

- China Takes Another Stab At The Dollar, Launches Currency Swap Line With France (ZeroHedge, April 13, 2013):

One more domino in the dollar reserve supremacy regime falls. Following the announcement two weeks ago that Australia And China will Enable Direct Currency Convertibility, which in turn was the culmination of two years of Yuan internationalization efforts as summarized by the following: “World’s Second (China) And Third Largest (Japan) Economies To Bypass Dollar, Engage In Direct Currency Trade“, “China, Russia Drop Dollar In Bilateral Trade“, “China And Iran To Bypass Dollar, Plan Oil Barter System“, “India and Japan sign new $15bn currency swap agreement“, “Iran, Russia Replace Dollar With Rial, Ruble in Trade, Fars Says“, “India Joins Asian Dollar Exclusion Zone, Will Transact With Iran In Rupees“, and “The USD Trap Is Closing: Dollar Exclusion Zone Crosses The Pacific As Brazil Signs China Currency Swap, China has now launched yet another feeler to see what the apetite toward its currency is, this time in the heart of the Eurozone: Paris. According to China Daily, as reported by Reuters, “France intends to set up a currency swap line with China to make Paris a major offshore yuan trading hub in Europe, competing against London.” As a reminder the BOE and the PBOC announced a currency swap line back in February, in effect linking up the CNY to the GBP. Now it is the EUR’s turn.

More on this curious move by the Bank of France and the PBOC from Reuters: Continue reading »

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Mar 31

- PM set to sign China currency deal in boost to exporters (The Australian, March 30, 2013):

A CURRENCY deal enabling the Australian dollar to be converted directly into Chinese yuan, slashing costs for thousands of businesses, is set to be the centrepiece of Julia Gillard’s mission to China next weekend.

Australia would become the third country, after the US and Japan, to secure such an arrangement from China, which is Australia’s top trading partner, with exports and imports totalling $120 billion last financial year.

At present, companies doing business with China must pay the added cost of converting their Australian dollars into US dollars or yen, and then into yuan.

Continue reading »

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Mar 10

FYI.


- Jim Rogers: We’re Wiping Out The Savings Class Globally, To Terrible Consequence (Peak Prosperity, March 9, 2013):

Jim Rogers decries the growing uncertainty and recklessness of global central planners as the world enters unchartered financial markets:

For the first time in recorded history, we have nearly every central bank printing money and trying to debase their currency. This has never happened before. How it’s going to work out, I don’t know. It just depends on which one goes down the most and first, and they take turns. When one says a currency is going down, the question is against what? because they are all trying to debase themselves. It’s a peculiar time in world history.

Continue reading »

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Feb 19

- The Reflation Party Is Ending As China Withdraws Market Liquidity For First Time In Eight Months (ZeroHedge, Feb 19, 2013):

Since institutional memories are short, it is time to remind readers that it was the threat, and subsequent reality, of China overheating in the spring and summer of 2011 (when record high food prices sent the entire North African region in a state of coordinated revolt and gradually moved far east), when even the Great firewall of China could not block news of frequent break outs of localized violence from hungry and angry mobs, that halted and broke the spine of the great reflation trade then (and yes, 2013 has so far been a carbon copy replica of 2011 as we summarized in “It’s Deja Vu, All Over Again: This Time Is… Completely The Same“).

Furthermore, as only Zero Hedge forecast back in mid-2012, when ever other commentator was shouting over the rooftops that an RRR or interest rate cut out of Beijing was imminent, the PBOC would be the last to stimulate the market with monetary easing as it was well-aware that an entire developed world reflating at the same time would hit none other than China the fastest as the hot money flew straight into Shanghai. Just as it did in 2011. So instead China proceeded to engage in a series of daily reverse repos, or ultra-short term liquidity injections that prevented the advent of wholesale inflation: after all the Fed, the BOJ, the ECB and soon, the BOE, were doing it for them. And the last thing the country with the highest allotment of CPI, or book inflation, to food and energy can afford, is to let foreign central banks dictate its price level. After all, it has more than enough of its own.

Well, the Chinese New Year celebration is now over, the Year of the Snake is here, and those following the Shanghai Composite have lots to hiss about, as two out of two trading days have printed in the red. But a far bigger concern to not only those long the SHCOMP, but the “Great Reflation Trade – ver. 2013″, is that just as two years ago, China appears set to pull out first, as once again inflation rears its ugly head. And where the PBOC goes, everyone else grudgingly has to follow: after all without China there is no marginal growth driver to the world economy.

End result: China’s reverse repos, or liquidity providing operations, have ended after month of daily injections, and the first outright repo, or liquidity draining operation, just took place after eight months of dormancy.

From the WSJ:

Chinese authorities took a step to ease potential inflationary pressures Tuesday by using a key mechanism for the first time in eight months.

The move by the central bank to withdraw cash from the banking system is a reversal after months of pumping cash in. That cash flood was meant to reduce borrowing costs for businesses as the economy slowed last year—but recent data has shown growth picking up, along with the main determinants of inflation: housing and food prices.

Continue reading »

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Feb 10

- “China Accounts For Nearly Half Of World’s New Money Supply” (ZeroHedge, Feb 8, 2013):

When it comes to the creation of money in China, and specifically the asset side of the ledger, or loans, there is much more confusion than consensus, primarily because nobody knows who it is that is creating the money: private or public entities, SOEs, the PBOC, regional banks, shadow banks, or your next door neighbor.Another thing that is largely misreported: what the actual assets pledged as collateral to new loans are. Because while it is well-known that corporate debt in China is now greater as a percentage of GDP than in any other country, the comprehensive picture is still confusing (albeit GMO did a fantastic summary recently of what is known) as reporting standards are still non-existent, and the government flat out lies about its balance sheet.

Yet one very simple shortcut to get a sense of what is truly happening in monetary China is to peek at the liability side of the consolidated balance sheet, and one line in particular, namely deposits. Because unlike in the US, where the vibrant equity Ponzi scheme has rarely been stronger, in China it is still all about the cash and as a result the bulk of the newly created money once again return back to the banking sector in the form of a deposit. Ironically, that is what banking should be about (instead of the entire industry being a glorified hedge fund) although in China even this practice has gone on way too far, and like in Europe, has long passed the point where there is real collateral value backing up the new money created (which explains the emergence of various letters of credit collateralized by copper still not dug out of the ground which reappear every time Chinese inflation spikes above 5%).

So how do deposits look when comparing the US and China? Well, after having less than half the total US deposits back in 2005, China has pumped enough cash into the economy using various public and private conduits to make even Ben Bernanke blush: between January 2005 and January 2013, Chinese bank deposits have soared by a whopping $11 trillion, rising from $4 trillion to $15 trillion! We have no idea what the real Chinese GDP number is but this expansion alone is anywhere between 200 and 300% of the real GDP as it stands now. Continue reading »

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Oct 23

- Asian economies turn to yuan (China Daily, Oct 24, 2012):

A “renminbi bloc” has been formed in East Asia, as nations in the region abandon the US dollar and peg their currency to the Chinese yuan — a major signal of China’s successful bid to internationalize its currency, a research report has said.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics, or PIIE, said in its latest research that China has moved closer to its long-term goal for the renminbi to become a global reserve currency.

Since the global financial crisis, the report said, more and more nations, especially emerging economies, see the yuan as the main reference currency when setting their exchange rate.

And now seven out of 10 economies in the region — including South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand — track the renminbi more closely than they do the US dollar. Only three economies in the group — Hong Kong, Vietnam, and Mongolia — still have currencies following the dollar more closely than the renminbi, said the report, posted on the institute’s website.

The South Korean won, for example, has appreciated in sync with the renminbi against the dollar since mid-2010.

Continue reading »

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Sep 12

- China And Russia Are Ruthlessly Cutting The Legs Out From Under The U.S. Dollar (Economic Collapse, Sep 10, 2012):

The mainstream media in the United States is almost totally ignoring one of the most important trends in global economics.  This trend is going to cause the value of the U.S. dollar to fall dramatically and it is going to cause the cost of living in the United States to go way up.  Right now, the U.S. dollar is the primary reserve currency of the world.  Even though that status has been chipped away at in recent years, U.S. dollars still make up more than 60 percent of all foreign currency reserves in the world.  Most international trade (including the buying and selling of oil) is conducted in U.S. dollars, and this gives the United States a tremendous economic advantage.  Since so much trade is done in dollars, there is a constant demand for more dollars all over the globe from countries that need them for trading purposes.  So the Federal Reserve is able to flood our financial system with dollars without it causing a tremendous amount of inflation because the rest of the world ends up soaking up a lot of those dollars.  But now that is changing.  China and Russia have been spearheading a movement to shift away from using the U.S. dollar in international trade.  At the moment, the shift is happening gradually, but at some point a tipping point will come (for example if Saudi Arabia were to declare that it will no longer take U.S. dollars for oil) and the entire global financial system is going to change.  When that tipping point comes the global demand for U.S. dollars is going to absolutely plummet and nightmarish inflation will come to the United States.  If such a scenario sounds far out to you, then you have not been paying attention.  In fact, China and Russia have been working very hard to move us toward exactly such a scenario.

China and Russia are not the “buddies” of the United States.  The truth is that they are both ruthless competitors of the United States and leaders from both nations have been calling for a new global currency for years.

They don’t like that the United States has a built-in advantage of having the reserve currency of the world, and over the past several years both countries have been busy making international agreements that seek to chip away at that advantage.

Just the other day, China and Germany agreed to start conducting an increasing amount of trade with each other in their own currencies.

Continue reading »

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Sep 08

- Name The New Reserve Currency: China Imports More Gold In 2012 Than All ECB Holdings (ZeroHedge, Aug 8, 2012):

The last time we looked at monthly Chinese imports of gold from Hong Kong in 2012, the comparable country in question was Portugal (whose citizens, if not central bank, incidentally have run out of gold to sell), because that is whose total gold holdings (at 382.5 tons) Chinese imports had just surpassed. Fast forward a month later, and the update is even more disturbing. In July, Chinese gold imports from HK, after two months of declines, have picked up once more and hit a 3-month high of 75.8 tons. While it is notable that this number is double the 38.1 tons imported a year prior, and that year-to-date imports are now a record 458.6 tons, well over four times greater than the seven month total in 2011 which was 103.9 tons, what is far more important is that in the first seven months of 2012 alone China has imported nearly as much gold as the total holdings of the hedge fund at the heart of the Eurozone, elsewhere known simply as the European Central Bank, and just as importantly considering the import run-rate has hardly slowed down in August, which data we will have in a few weeks, it is now safe to say that in 2012 alone China has imported more gold than the ECB’s entire official 502.1 tons of holdings.

What is most amusing is that China, via the IMF, still wants the world to believe that total Chinese official holdings are just 1040 tons (double the ECB’s), when it has imported half this amount in 2012 alone. Continue reading »

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Jul 16

- After Creating Dollar Exclusion Zones In Asia And South America, China Set To Corner Africa Next (ZeroHedge, July 15, 2012):

By now it really, really should be obvious. While the insolvent “developed world” is furiously fighting over who gets to pay the bill for 30 years of unsustainable debt accumulation and how to pretend that the modern ‘crony capitalist for some and communist for others‘ system isn’t one flap of a butterfly’s wings away from full on collapse mode, China is slowly taking over the world’s real assets. As a reminder: here is a smattering of our headlines on the topic from the last year: World’s Second (China) And Third Largest (Japan) Economies To Bypass Dollar, Engage In Direct Currency Trade“, “China, Russia Drop Dollar In Bilateral Trade“, “China And Iran To Bypass Dollar, Plan Oil Barter System“, “India and Japan sign new $15bn currency swap agreement“, “Iran, Russia Replace Dollar With Rial, Ruble in Trade, Fars Says“, “India Joins Asian Dollar Exclusion Zone, Will Transact With Iran In Rupees“, ‘The USD Trap Is Closing: Dollar Exclusion Zone Crosses The Pacific As Brazil Signs China Currency Swap“, and finally, Chile Is Latest Country To Launch Renminbi Swaps And Settlement“, we now get the inevitable: Central bank pledges financial push in Africa.” To summarize: first Asia, next Latin America, and now Africa.

Yep: the Yuan may not be the reserve currency by default, but at this rate China will have bilateral, read USD-bypassing relations, with all countries in Asia, South America and shortly Africa (where none other than Goldman Sachs has been pushing harder than anyone). Once the entire world is trading in CNY, it will be merely a matter of flipping the switch and all those fancy three-letter economic theories that explain why the uber-welfare state works just becayse the US can print an infinity+1 in debt, will all suddenly find themselves completely and totally bidless.

From China Daily:

China is to promote the yuan’s use in settling trade and investment with Africa, and encourage the more active development of Chinese financial institutions across the continent, a senior central bank official said on Friday.

Li Dongrong, assistant governor of the People’s Bank of China, said Africa has the capability of becoming a new hub of international capital flow, and the yuan’s use there should be further improved in accordance with rising demand for the currency there.

“We will continue to encourage domestic financial institutions to increase their presence and business across the continent,” Li told delegates at the Forum on China-Africa Financial Cooperation in Beijing, adding that the cooperation potential between the two sides is huge, as Africa’s economy continues to take off. Continue reading »

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Jul 14

- Forget China’s Goal-Seeked GDP Tonight; This Is The Chart That Keeps The PBOC Up At Night (ZeroHedge, July 12, 2012):

As we wait anxiously for the not-too-hot and not-too-cold but just right GDP data from China this evening, we thought it instructive to get some sense of the reality in China. From both the property bubble perspective (as Stratfor’s analysis of the record high prices paid just this week for Beijing property – by an SOE no less – and its massive ‘microcosm’ insight into the bubbliciousness of the PBOC’s attempts to stave off the inevitable ‘landing’); to the rather shocking insight that Diapason Commodities’ Sean Corrigan offers that ‘Hot Money Flows’ have left China at a rates exceeding that during the worst of the Lehman crisis; take a range of key indicators – from electricity usage, to Shanghai container throughput, to nationwide rail freight ton-miles, to steel output – and you will notice that none of these shows a rate of growth during the second quarter of more than 4% from 2011, and some are as low as 1%. Whatever fictive GDP number we are presented with this week, the message is clear: “Brace! Brace! Brace!”

Via Sean Corrigan of Diapason Commodities,

Indeed, there are clear signs that some of these dangers are beginning to be realised. Taking the difference between the reported size of China’s forex reserves and the sum of trade and FDI inflows (and making some best-guess reckoning of the effects of reval changes and interest gains), one gets an estimate of hot money movements being diffused across the porous barrier of capital controls – most famously via the metals L/C rehypothecation scam. Between March’09 and February of this year, such ‘unexplained’ flows amounted to no less than $560 billion – roughly two-fifths of China’s total reserve accumulation and a third of its coincident increase in M1.

The last four months of increasing angst about the state of the ‘landing’ have seen a dramatic reversal of these flows, to the point that the discrepancy in the books suggests that China may have lost no less than $128 billion – a flight which exceeds that suffered during the worst of the Lehman crisis.

Continue reading »

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Jun 29

- The Story That Got Bloomberg News Blocked In China (ZeroHedge, June 2,, 2012):

Bloomberg News may be the most read news source in the world, but as of today, it is no longer available in China. Why? According to Bloomberg TV News Editor Denise Pellegrini, all it takes is for some investigative reporting exposing the dirty laundry, or in this case the even dirtier assets of one Xi Jinping – “the man in line to be China’s next president.” In “Xi Jinping Millionaire Relations Reveal Fortunes of Elite” Bloomberg writes: “Xi warned officials on a 2004 anti-graft conference call: “Rein in your spouses, children, relatives, friends and staff, and vow not to use power for personal gain.” As Xi climbed the Communist Party ranks, his extended family expanded their business interests to include minerals, real estate and mobile-phone equipment, according to public documents compiled by Bloomberg. Those interests include investments in companies with total assets of $376 million; an 18 percent indirect stake in a rare- earths company with $1.73 billion in assets; and a $20.2 million holding in a publicly traded technology company.” That a country’s will seek to block the internet when the wealth of its humble leaders is exposed is expected. However, what is unexpected is that the hidden assets of China’s president in waiting are rather easily discovered is troubling: it means Goldman has still much work to do in China, and much more advisory work to the country’s elite over how to best hide its assets in various non-extradition locations around the world under assorted HoldCos. Just like in the US. The good news, for GS shareholders, however, is that this indeed provides a huge new potential revenue stream.

More from Bloomberg:

Xi has risen through the party over the past three decades, holding leadership positions in several provinces and joining the ruling Politburo Standing Committee in 2007. Along the way, he built a reputation for clean government.

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May 26

- China And Japan Dropping Dollar Cross Rate System, Will Transact Directly (ZeroHedge, May 26, 2012):

While various three letter economic schools of thought continue sprouting left and right, in an attempt to validate endless spending predicated on one simple thing: transitory reserve currency status, and we emphasize transitory, reality moves on, oblivious of what economic theoreticians believe it should be doing. As Yomiuri Shimbun reported last night, China and Japan are set to launch direct currency trading, bypassing the dollar, and the associated benefits and risks, entirely. “But how can that be?” dollar purists will scream. After all, when one bypasses the dollar, one commits blasphemy to a reserve currency. Somehow we think China gets that. From the AP: “Japan and China are expected to start direct trading of their currencies as early as June as part of efforts to boost bilateral trade and investment, according to reports. With the planned step, exchange rates between the yen and the yuan will be determined by their transactions, departing from the current “cross rate” system that involves the dollar in setting yen-yuan rates, Kyodo News said on Saturday.”

More specifics on how the world’s second and third largest economy will just say no to dollar hegemony:

The two governments are eyeing setting up markets in Tokyo and Shanghai, the Yomiuri Shimbun said.

The yen-yuan exchange system would help businesses in the world’s second- and third-largest economies reduce risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations in the dollar and cut transaction costs, Kyodo said.

It will be the first time that China has allowed a major currency except the dollar to directly trade with the yuan, Kyodo said.

As usual, why spend time commeting with words, when a simple chart will suffice.

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Apr 14

Flashback:

- Mike Krieger: This Is The Last Dance:

They refuse to allow the yuan to strengthen because they know that once they do that it will mark the real end of the dollar era. So instead they are spending like crazy on infrastructure ahead of them allowing the dollar to plunge.  Then the strong yuan will be employed to purchase all the commodities they need to utilize their infrastructure and the OECD gets priced out. To those that talk about yuan devaluation, you need to be specific.  Devaluation versus what?  Versus commodities generally along with other currencies?  I can buy that argument very easily.  Versus the dollar, highly doubtful.  Why? The latest data says China owns $877.5 billion in U.S. treasuries. All they have to do is start dumping and the dollar is finished as the Fed will be forced to print so many dollars it will make Mugabe blush.  People need to wake up.

(Mike Krieger, formerly a macro analyst at Bernstein, and currently running his own fund, KAM LP, summarizies the pretend reality we are all caught in now, knowing full well America is set on a crash course with reality at some point, yet sticking our collective heads in the sand, as the collapse will be some time in the “indefinite” future. In the meantime, banks will continue to boost US GDP by peddling “financial innovation” and restructuring advice to countries like Greece… and nothing else.)

Ready for the greatest financial collapse in world history?

This is the ‘Greatest Depression.


- China moves on currency after growing US pressure (Telegraph, April 14, 2012):

China took a major step closer to turning its yuan into a fully tradable global currency today, by doubling the range by which it is allowed to rise or fall against the dollar.

The People’s Bank of China said that from Monday it will double the trading band, so that the yuan can fluctuate by 1pc every day from a mid-point, compared with its previous limit of 0.5pc.

The move demonstrates Beijing’s belief that the yuan is now stable enough to handle major structural reforms, despite slowing growth of the Chinese economy.

Analysts said the slowdown may have actually spurred Beijing to make the change, because the Chinese government knew it could introduce the larger band without causing a spike in the yuan’s value.

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Feb 20

- The Race To Debase In All Its Glory (ZeroHedge, Feb. 19, 2012):

Lest anyone forget what the real story is, here is a reminder. Thank you neo-Keynesian economics for making a mockery of non-scientific notation.

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Mar 04

In a surprising turn of events, today’s biggest piece of news received a mere two paragraph blurb on Reuters, and was thoroughly ignored by the broader media. An announcement appeared shortly after midnight on the website of the People’s Bank of China.

The statement, google translated as “Pragmatic and pioneering spirit to promote cross-border renminbi business cum on monitoring and analysis to a new level” is presented below:

Reuters provides a simple translation and summary of the announcement: “China hopes to allow all exporters and importers to settle their cross-border trades in the yuan by this year, the central bank said on Wednesday, as part of plans to grow the currency’s international role. In a statement on its website www.pbc.gov.cn, the central bank said it would respond to overseas demand for the yuan to be used as a reserve currency.It added it would also allow the yuan to flow back into China more easily.”

To all those who claim that China is perfectly happy with the status quo, in which it is willing to peg the Renmibni to the Dollar in perpetuity, this may come as a rather unpleasant surprise, as it indicates that suddenly China is far more vocal about its intention to convert its currency to reserve status, and in the process make the dollar even more insignificant.

International Business Times provides further insight:

This is all part of China’s plan for the internationalization of its currency, which may, in the decades to come, threaten the global ‘market share’ of other currencies like the US dollar.

Previously, China also announced that bilateral trades with Russia and Malaysia will begin to be conducted with the yuan and the ruble and ringgit, respectively.

Other moves on the part of China to internationalize its currency include allowing foreign companies to issue yuan-denominated bonds and relaxing rules for foreign financial institutions to access the yuan.

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Feb 26

BEIJING: Bank of India has become the first Indian bank to offer trade settlement facility between the rupee and the Chinese RMB from Hong Kong. This follows intense persuasion by the China Banking Regulatory Commission, which is trying to gain acceptance of the RMB as an international currency.

“We are the first Indian bank to offer real-time settlement facility in RMB to Indian exporters and importers. It will be save a lot of time because settlement in US dollars usually takes three working days,” Arun Kumar Arora, BoI’s chief executive in Hong Kong, said during a recent visit to meeting regulators in Beijing.

Indian buyers are at present making payments in US dollars, and they often have to convert rupee into the US currency for the purpose. The US dollars will no more be the intermediary currency as the BOI is offering direct settlement between the rupee and the Chinese money.

Chinese exporters want their money in the local currency, which is regarded as more stable compared to the US dollar. They are also in a position to have their way because Indian buyers do not have an alternative source of low-cost goods, sources said.

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