The world’s biggest hedge fund, Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates got into some hot water in the past few months when it was accused by many members of the underperforming “hedge fund hotel” club for being the “risk parity” catalyst that sent the market tumbling in August, and perhaps for being the catalyst for the August 24 market crash.
And while the bulk of Bridgewater’s asset are in various commodities and futures, most of which are never reported to the public, earlier today it did disclose its long holdings in public equities when it filed its latest 13F. Perhaps those accusing Bridgewater of being the market-moving catalyst did have a point, because after posting a total AUM of $10.8 billion at June, this total declined by a whopping 31% to just $7.5 billion as of September 30.
Here is what Brigewater was dumping (and adding). Continue reading »
So many of the exact same patterns that we witnessed just before the stock market crash of 2008 are playing out once again right before our eyes. Most of the time, a stock market crash doesn’t just come out of nowhere. Normally there are specific leading indicators that we can look for that will tell us if major trouble is on the horizon. One of these leading indicators is the junk bond market. Right now, a closely watched high yield bond ETF known as JNK is sitting at 35.77. If it falls below 35, that will be a major red flag, and it will be the first time that it has done so since 2009. As you can see from this chart, JNK started crashing in June and July of 2008 – well before equities started crashing later that year. A crash in junk bonds almost always precedes a major crash in stocks, and so this is something that I am watching carefully.
And there is a reason why junk bonds are crashing. In 2015 we have seen the most corporate bond downgrades since the last financial crisis, and corporate debt defaults are absolutely skyrocketing. The following comes from a recent piece by Porter Stansberry… Continue reading »
Why won’t the American people listen to the warnings? David Stockman was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1977 to 1981, and he served as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan from 1981 to 1985. These days, he is running a website called “Contra Corner” which I highly recommend that you check out. Stockman believes that a global “debt super-cycle” that has been building for decades is now bursting, and he is convinced that the consequences for the U.S. and for the rest of the planet will be absolutely catastrophic. His findings are very consistent with what I have been writing about on The Economic Collapse Blog, and if Stockman is correct the times ahead of us are going to be exceedingly painful. Continue reading »
The 1st of October came and went without financial armageddon. Veteran forecaster Martin Armstrong, who accurately predicted the 1987 crash, used the same model to suggest that 1 October would be a major turning point for global markets. Some investors even put bets on it. But the passing of the predicted global crash is only good news to a point. Many indicators in global finance are pointing downwards – and some even think the crash has begun.
Let’s assemble the evidence. First, the unsustainable debt. Since 2007, the pile of debt in the world has grown by $57tn (£37tn). That’s a compound annual growth rate of 5.3%, significantly beating GDP. Debts have doubled in the so-called emerging markets, while rising by just over a third in the developed world. Continue reading »
Earlier this month, it was reported that less than two weeks before the economic collapse of 2008, several members of Congress took their money out of the stock market. Many high ranking government employees were given a heads-up about the impending market crash in secret meetings with the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. Then they used that information to engage in insider trading.
It was revealed that Senator Shelley Capito and her husband sold $350,000 worth of Citigroup stock at $83 per share, just one day before the stock dropped to $64 per share. Another shady trader was Congressman Jim Moran, who had his biggest trading day of the year days after the secret meeting, sellings stock in nearly 100 different companies. Continue reading »
Have you noticed that things have gotten eerily quiet in the month of October? After the chaos of late August and early September, many had anticipated that we would be dealing with a full-blown financial collapse by now, but instead we have entered a period of “dead calm” in which things have become exceedingly quiet in almost every way that you can possibly imagine. Other “watchmen” that I highly respect have made the exact same observation. Even though the economic numbers are screaming that we have entered a global recession, they aren’t really make any headline news. A whole host of major financial institutions around the planet are currently in danger of collapsing and creating the next “Lehman Brothers moment”, but none of them has imploded just yet. And of course Barack Obama seems bound and determined to start World War III. On Monday, it was announced that he is sending a guided missile destroyer into Chinese waters in the South China Sea. The Chinese have already stated that they might just start shooting if this happens, but Barack Obama doesn’t seem to care. But until the shooting actually begins, that is not likely to upset the current tranquility that we are enjoying either. Continue reading »
H/t reader squodgy:
“Beyond comprehension, is somebody extending the cliff edge on a daily basis?
A 15% increase in motor vehicle inventories means only one think, nobody is buying.
But it’s ALL durables AND non-durables.
That means nobody is buying anything.
This is classic stagnation, but essential goods prices continue to rise, which is stagflation, the classic pre-cursor to a crash.
Why can’t they get it over with? What is their real agenda?
Are they waiting for something? It can only be a false flag big event as predicted by so many.”
This was a data set we didn’t need. Not one bit. It mauled our hopes. But the US Census Bureau dished it up anyway: wholesales declined again, inventories rose again, and the inventory-to-sales ratio reached Lehman-moment levels.
In August, wholesales dropped to $445.4 billion, seasonally adjusted. Down 1.0% from July and down 4.7% from August last year. Continue reading »
With VIX collapsing 10 days straight (for the first time since October 2010), one might be forgiven for thinking “everything is awesome.” However, as always, the real news is in the nuance that the mainstream often misses. As VIX has plunged (complacency about ‘normal’ risk), Skew (which measures extreme tail risk) has exploded to its highest ever…
Skew measures the perceived tail risk of the market via the pricing of out-of-the-money options
Generally, a rise in skew indicates that ‘crash protection’ is in demand among institutional investors (institutional/professional investors are the biggest traders in SPX options).
Sometimes less is more (less good data is moar good for stocks) and in the case of Marc Faber’s recent appearance on Bloomberg’s “What’d You Miss”, 66 seconds of honesty was all that the hosts could take.
The Gloom, Boom & Doom report editor notes “we have had a meaningful decline in many stocks already,” and warns it is far from over as market face two possibilities of “longer-term unattractiveness”: “a 1987-style collapse,” or a 1973-74-style slow “sliding slope of hope.”
Financial writer and analyst Bix Weir is not surprised by the Federal Reserve’s policies because it is all part of the long term plan. Weir explains, “The goal, since we went off the gold standard in 1971, has been to run the financial system as long and as hard as possible, sucking up all the benefits of fiat money, and there are very few attempts to slow this mess down. The idea is to put as much money as you can . . . until you have printed so much money the system implodes. This was a Nobel Prize winning paper in the 1960’s called “On the Road to the Golden Age.” It basically says if you have this freedom and flexibility with the monetary system, run it as hard as you can until people stop accepting the unbacked fiat money, then crash the system and go back to something safe and sound after it all blows up. . . . What they need is a big enough bubble so when it crashes, it take out all the derivatives, the malfeasance of the banks, the good guys and the bad guys and all the things going on behind the scenes. They need the bubble so big, and that’s what they are doing right now is blowing the bubble so big everybody feels the effect of a crash.”
When is the next crash coming? Weir says it will all unwind before “the end of this year.” Weir contends, “The decision will need to be made this year. The banks will, once again, come to Congress and say we need money for a bailout. That decision will be made by the U.S. people, not by Congress, not by the Fed and not by the banks. It’s going to come to the people, and I believe they will say no to bailouts.” Continue reading »
As Bloomberg reports, “JPMorgan Chase & Co. is set to pay almost a third of a $1.86 billion settlement to resolve accusations that a dozen big banks conspired to limit competition in the credit-default swaps market, according to people briefed on terms of the deal.”
The man who made a billion dollars on Black Monday sums up his strategy perfectly in this excellent FOX Business clip with the money-honey, “I’m a hedge fund manager that actually hedges for his clients. This is something of an old fashioned idea in this day of just gambling on the next Fed bailout.” Spitznagel, who is wholly unapologetic in his criticism of The Fed (and any central planner), unleashes eight minutes of awful truthiness on what is going on under the surface of the so-called ‘market’, concluding ominously, “if August was scary for people, they ain’t seen nothin’ yet.” Continue reading »
Normally when the world needs an equity market boost, a broken market suffices to slam VIX and save the world. This time not so much.. and the carnage that this will cause into quad witch is frightening…
The Market Breaks…
But it doesn’t work…
And… Continue reading »
– We Now Know What Happened At 6:12 AM This Morning (ZeroHedge, Sep 10, 2015):
In summary: what we do know: a nearly 1% move up and down in the S&P due to blatan – and illegal – spoofing manipulation; what we don’t know: the identity of the spoofer.
What is certain: if the culprit is a central bank or one of its trading agents like Citadel, the CFTC will never follow up. If it is some Indian living in his parents’ basement in a London suburb, you can run but you can’t hide.
– This Is EXACTLY What The Early Phases Of A Market Meltdown Look Like (Economic Collapse, Sep 9, 2015):
There is so much confusion out there. On the days when the Dow goes down by several hundred points, lots of people pat me on the back and tell me that I “nailed” my call for the second half of this year. But on the days when the Dow goes up by several hundred points, I get lots of people contacting me and telling me that they are confused because they thought the stock market was supposed to go down. Well, the truth is that if there is going to be a full-blown market meltdown, we would expect for there to be wildly dramatic swings in the market both up and down.
A perfect example of this is what we experienced during the financial crisis of 2008. 9 of the 20 largest single day declines in stock market history happened that year, but 9 of the 20 largest single day increases in stock market history also happened that year. If we are moving into another great financial crisis, there should be massive ups and massive downs, and that is precisely what we are witnessing right now. Continue reading »
Sep 5, 2015
In this special episode of the Keiser Report from New York, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss the never seen before triple category four hurricanes heading for global financial markets caused by injection of too much hot air from central bankers. In the second half, Max interviews Gerald Celente about Rule 48, volatility and invasions.
Tags: Banking, China, Collapse, Economy, Fed, Federal Reserve, Gerald Celente, Global News, Government, Janet Yellen, Max Keiser, Obama administration, Politics, Ponzi schemes, Stock Market, U.S., Wall Street
– IF YOU THINK THAT WAS A CRASH…. (The Burning Platform, Sep 7, 2015):
Last week’s volatility to the downside was entirely predictable, as the first leg down during this ongoing market crash reached the correction stage of 11%. The technical bounce was a given, as the 30 year old HFT MBAs on Wall Street have been trained like rats to BTFD. In their lemming like minds, it has worked for the last six years of this Federal Reserve created “bull market”, so why wouldn’t it work now. Last week was their first lesson in why it doesn’t work during bear markets, and we’ve entered a bear market. John Hussman seems amused at the shallowness of the arguments by Wall Street shills and CNBC cheerleaders about the future of the stock market in his weekly letter. After this modest pullback from all-time highs, the S&P 500 is still overvalued by 92%: Continue reading »
– Stock Market Crash 2015: The Dow Has Already Plummeted 2200 Points From The Peak (Economic Collapse, Sep 4, 2015):
Those that watched their stocks steadily increase in value for years are now seeing all of that “wealth” disappear at a staggering pace. The only way you actually make money in the stock market is if you get out in time, and many Americans are discovering that all or most of their gains have already been wiped out. At this point, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dipped below where it was at the end of the 2013 calendar year. That means that nearly two years of gains have already been obliterated. On Friday, the Dow was down another 272 points, and it is now down more than 2200 points from the peak of the market back in May. For months, I have been detailing how things were setting up for this kind of financial crash in textbook fashion, and now events are playing out just as I warned. But this is just the beginning – what is coming next is going to shock the world. Continue reading »
– JPM Head Quant Is Back With New Warning: “Only Half The Selling Is Done; Expect More Downside” (ZeroHedge, Sept 3, 2015):
“… we estimate that only about half (or slightly more than half) of total technical selling was completed to-date (mostly completed by VT funds, half by CTAs, and a smaller fraction by RPs). We estimate that a further ~$100bn of selling remains to be completed over the next 1-3 weeks. As a result, we expect elevated volatility and downside price risk to persist.”
– “It’s A Tipping Point” Marc Faber Warns “There Are No Safe Assets Anymore” (ZeroHedge, Sept 2, 2015):
Markets have “reached some kind of a tipping point,” warns Marc Faber in this brief Bloomberg TV interview. Simply put, he explains, “because of modern central banking and repeated interventions with monetary policy, in other words, with QE, all around the world by central banks – there is no safe asset anymore.” The purchasing power of money is going down, and Faber “would rather focus on precious metals because they do not depend on the industrial demand as much as base metals or industrial commodities,” as it’s now “obvious that the Chinese economy is growing at nowhere near what the Ministry of Truth is publishing.”
Faber explains more… “I have to laugh when someone like you tries to lecture me what creates prosperity”
Some key exceprts… Continue reading »
H/t reader sqoudgy:
“I really believe the debt burdened financial system is unsustainable, is collapsing and its final death throes will be smoke screened by an event to be used to for increased state control of the ordinary sheeple.”
– US Equities Are Crashing Again – Dow Futures Down 430, AAPL -2.75%; NYSE Unleashes Rule 48 (Again) (ZeroHedge, Sept 1, 2015):
*NYSE AND NYSE MKT CASH EQUITIES MARKETS WILL INVOKE RULE 48
US equity futures markets have just pushed to fresh overnight lows, with the last leg down seemingly triggered by the CAD recession print. Let’s hope Cramer and Cook have another email up their sleeves as weakness in AAPL is notable – down 2.75% in the pre-market. Lastly, we noted US equities are rapidly catching back down to the XIV-implied lows as the last few days bounce evaporates.
– In The Month Of September 2015 We Officially Enter The Danger Zone (Economic Collapse, Aug 31, 2015):
Is September 2015 going to be one of the most important months in modern American history? When I issued my first ever “red alert” for the last six months of 2015 back in June, I was particularly concerned with the months of September through December, and not just for economic reasons. All of the intel that I have received is absolutely screaming that big trouble is ahead. So enjoy these last few days of relative peace and quiet. I mean that sincerely. In fact, that is exactly what I have been doing – over the past week I have not posted many articles because I was spending time with family, friends and preparing for the national call to prayer on September 18th and 19th. But now as we enter the chaotic month of September 2015 I have a feeling that there is going to be plenty for me to write about. Continue reading »
– Ron Paul Rages “Blame The Fed, Not China” For The Stock Market Crash (The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity, Aug 30, 2015):
Following Monday’s historic stock market downturn, many politicians and so-called economic experts rushed to the microphones to explain why the market crashed and to propose “solutions” to our economic woes. Not surprisingly, most of those commenting not only failed to give the right answers, they failed to ask the right questions.Many blamed the crash on China’s recent currency devaluation. It is true that the crash was caused by a flawed monetary policy. However, the fault lies not with China’s central bank but with the US Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies distort the economy, creating bubbles, which in turn create a booming stock market and the illusion of widespread prosperity. Inevitably, the bubble bursts, the market crashes, and the economy sinks into a recession. Continue reading »
– Video of the Day – Bernie Sanders Says “I Think the Business Model of Wall Street is Fraud” (Liberty Blitzkrieg, Aug 30, 2015):
During a recent interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, Bernie Sanders exclaimed: “I think the business model of Wall Street is fraud.”
Basically. Unfortunately, it will never change until serious jail sentences are handed out for the serious fraud, as opposed to taxpayer bailouts.
Watch the interview here. Is it really surprising that he’s close to catching Wall Street handler Hillary Clinton?
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