Jul 30

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An Expert That Correctly Called The Last Two Stock Market Crashes Is Now Predicting Another One (Economic Collapse, July 28, 2015):

What I am about to share with you is quite stunning.  A well-respected financial expert that correctly predicted the last two stock market crashes is now warning that we are right on the verge of the next one.  John Hussman is a former professor of economics and international finance at the University of Michigan, and the information in his latest weekly market comment is staggering.  Since 1970, there have only been a handful of times when a combination of market signals that Hussman uses have indicated that a major market peak has been reached.  In 1972, 2000 and 2007 each of those peaks was followed by a dramatic stock market crash.  Now, for the first time since the last financial crisis, all four of those signals appeared once again during the week of July 17th.  If Hussman’s analysis is correct, this could very well mean that the next great stock market crash in the United States is imminent.

It was an excellent article by Jim Quinn of the Burning Platform that first alerted me to Hussman’s latest warning.  If you don’t follow Quinn’s work already, you should, because it is excellent.

When someone is repeatedly correct about the financial markets, we should all start paying attention.  Back in late 2007, Hussman warned us about what was coming in 2008, but most people did not listen.

Now he is sounding the alarm again.  According to Hussman, when there is a confluence of four key market indicators, that tells us that the market has peaked and is in danger of crashing.  The following comes from Newsmax

He cited the metric among the indicators that foreshadowed declines after peaks in 1972, 2000 and 2007:

*Less than 27 percent of investment advisers polled by Investors Intelligence who say they are bearish.

*Valuations measured by the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio are greater than 18 times.

*Less than 60 percent of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving averages.

*Record high on a weekly closing basis.

The most recent warning was the week ended July 17, 2015,” Hussman said. “It’s often said that they don’t ring a bell at the top, and that’s true in many cycles. But it’s interesting that the same ‘ding’ has been heard at the most extreme peaks among them.”

It is quite rare for the market to set a new record high on a weekly closing basis and have more than 40 percent of stocks below their 200-day moving averages at the same time.  That is why a confluence of all these factors is fairly uncommon.  Hussman elaborated on this in his recent report

The remaining signals (record high on a weekly closing basis, fewer than 27% bears, Shiller P/E greater than 18, fewer than 60% of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day average), are shown below. What’s interesting about these warnings is how closely they identified the precise market peak of each cycle. Internal divergences have to be fairly extensive for the S&P 500 to register a fresh overvalued, overbullish new high with more than 40% of its component stocks already falling – it’s evidently a rare indication of a last hurrah. The 1972 warning occurred on November 17, 1972, only 7 weeks and less than 4% from the final high before the market lost half its value. The 2000 warning occurred the week of March 24, 2000, marking the exact weekly high of that bull run. The 2007 instance spanned two consecutive weekly closing highs: October 5 and October 12. The final daily high of the S&P 500 was October 9 – right in between. The most recent warning was the week ended July 17, 2015.

The following is the chart that immediately followed the paragraph in his report that you just read…

Hussman-Chart1

When I first took a look at that chart I could hardly believe it.

It appears that Hussman’s signals are able to indicate major stock market crashes with stunning precision.

And considering the fact that we just hit a new “ding” for the first time since the last financial crisis, what Hussman is saying is more than just a little bit ominous.

According to Hussman this is not just a recent phenomenon either.  Even though advisory sentiment figures were not available back in 1929, he believes that his indicators would have given a signal that a market crash was imminent in August of that year as well

Though advisory sentiment figures aren’t available prior to the mid-1960’s, imputed data suggest that additional instances likely include the two consecutive weeks of August 19, 1929 and August 26, 1929. We can infer unfavorable market internals in that instance because we know that cumulative NYSE breadth was declining for months before the 1929 high. The week of the exact market peak would also be included except that stocks closed down that week after registering a final high on September 3, 1929. Another likely instance, based on imputed sentiment data, is the week of November 10, 1961, which was immediately followed by a market swoon into June 1962.

Of course the past is the past, and what has happened in the past will not necessarily happen in the future.

So is Hussman wrong this time?  With all of the other things that are happening in the financial world right now, I certainly would not bet against him.

Other financial professionals are concerned that a market crash could be imminent as well.  The following comes from a piece authored by Andrew Adams

More than 13% of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are at 52-week lows, which is about 6 standard deviations above the average over the last three years (1.62%) and an extreme only seen one other time during said period (last October when the S&P 500 was percentage points away from a 10% correction).

This dichotomy has created what I believe to be the biggest question about the stock market right now – have we already experienced a stealth correction in the majority of stocks that will soon come to an end or will the market leaders finally succumb to the weight of the laggards and join in on the sell-off? The answer to this could end up being worth at least $2.2 trillion, which is how much money would essentially be wiped out of the stock market if we finally get the much-discussed 10% correction in the overall market (the total U.S. stock market capitalization was $22.5 trillion as of June 30, according to the Center for Research in Security Prices).

Sometimes, a picture is worth more than a thousand words.  I could share many more quotes from the “experts” about why they are concerned about a potential stock market collapse, but instead I want to share with you a “bonus chart” that Zero Hedge posted on Tuesday

Bonus-Chart-Zero-Hedge

Do you understand what that is saying?

In 2007 and 2008, junk bonds started crashing well before stocks did.

Now, we are witnessing a similar divergence.  If a similar pattern holds up this time, stocks have a long, long way to fall.

Like Hussman and so many others, I believe that a stock market crash and a new financial crisis are imminent.

The month of August is usually a slow month in the financial world, so hopefully we can get through it without too much chaos.  But once we roll into the months of September and October we will officially be in “the danger zone”.

Keep an eye on China, keep an eye on Europe, and keep listening for serious trouble at “too big to fail” banks all over the planet.

The next several months are going to be extremely significant, and we all need to be getting ready while we still can.

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Jul 28

Wall Street Still Didn’t Get The Memo—–China’s Done, Tops In! (David Stockamn’s Contra Cormner, July 28, 2015):

Bubblevision’s Scott Wapner nearly split a neck vessel today denouncing the US stock market sell-off. It was completely unwarranted, he thundered, because China don’t have nothin’ to do with anything.

The collapse of red capitalism in China is exporting gale force deflation to the global economy, meaning that the already evident rollover of world trade is just beginning its descent.

So S&P profits are not immune, not by a longshot. One of these days, perhaps soon, even Scott Wapner will get the memo.

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Jul 22

– Wall Street Prepares To Reap Billions From Another Main Street Wipe Out (ZeroHedge, July 21, 2015)

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Jul 21

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– The “Smartest Money” Used Last Week’s Surge To Dump Even More Stock (ZeroHedge, July 21, 2015):

Moments ago we got the latest BofA client flow update in which we were expecting to find that the “smart money”, flush with cash, and taking advantage of the Greek “deal” would jump in on last week’s biggest weekly market surge since October 2014 when Bullard hinted at QE4 and unleashed a buying surge. To our surprise we find that not only did “smart” money continue selling, but they were joined by the “smartest” money of all, hedge funds.  And who did they sell to? Why retail investors of course… and corporate buybacks but that should go without saying.

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Jul 08

Is This What The First World Cyber War Looks Like: Global Real Time Cyber Attack Map (ZeroHedge, July 8, 2015): 

After a series of cyber failures involving first UAL, then this website, then the NYSE which is still halted, then the WSJ, some have suggested that this could be a concerted cyber attack (perhaps by retaliatory China unhappy its stocks are plunging) focusing on the US. So we decided to look at a real-time cyber attack map courtesy of Norsecorp which provides real time visibility into global cyber attacks.

What clearly stands out is that for some reason Chinese DDOS attacks/hackers seem to be focusing on St. Louis this morning.

norse big_2_0

Whether this is related to the series of suspicious cyber failures today, is so far unclear, although if there is a connection at least there is a way to keep track of the first global cyberwar in real-time.

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Jul 08

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–  All Trading Halted On NYSE, White House Monitoring Outage, Software “Glitch” Blamed (ZeroHedge, July 8, 2015)

 

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Jun 26

Bank of America Trolls The Middle Class, Or How Wall Street Destroyed Main Street (ZeroHedge, June 26, 2015):

While the punchline of this post is well-known by everyone, and even the Federal Reserve finally admits that its own actions have led to record inequality and a world in which the rich have never been richer and poor, never been poorer (over the objections of some certifiable lunatics), we find it amazing that even the banks – those ultimate beneficiaries of every action by the Fed in the past 7 years – are now openly trolling what little is left of the middle class.

Presenting: Bank of America’s chart showing who the undisputed victor in that age-old war between Wall Street and Main Street, truly is.

wall vs main street

“So what chu gonna do about it?”

– Bank of Countrywide Lynch (already bailed out once by Main Street)

 

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Jun 08

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Dow Red In 2015 As S&P Takes Out Key Support: Trannies Tank, Crude Clipped, Dollar Dumped (ZeroHedge, June 8, 2015)

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Jun 01

“By Almost Every Measure Stocks Are Overvalued” Warns Goldman After Slamming Corporate Buybacks (ZeroHedge, June 1, 2015):

Over the weekend, we first reported that none other than Nobel prize winner Robert Shiller said that in his opinion, unlike 1929, this time everything – stocks, bonds and housing – was overvalued. Curiously, none other than Goldman’s chief equity strategist, David Kostin echoed this sentiment when in his latest weekly note to clients he said that “by almost any measure, US equity valuations look expensive. The typical stock in the S&P 500 trades at 18.1x forward earnings, ranking at the 98th percentile of historical valuation since 1976. For the overall index, the aggregate forward P/E multiple equals 17.2x, a rise of 63% since September 2011, compared with the median expansion of 48% during 9 previous P/E expansion cycles. Financial metrics such as EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales, and P/B also suggest that US stocks have stretched valuations. With tightening on the horizon, the P/E expansion phase of the current bull market is behind us.

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Jun 01

You are here


Stock-Market-Overvalued

Is The Stock Market Overvalued? (Economic Collapse, May 31, 2015):

Are stocks overvalued?  By just about any measure that you could possibly name, stocks are at historically high prices right now.  From a technical standpoint, the stock market is more overvalued today than it was just prior to the last financial crisis.  The only two moments in U.S. history that even compare to our current state of affairs are the run up to the stock market crash of 1929 and the peak of the hysteria just before the dotcom bubble burst.  It is so obvious that stocks are in a bubble that even Janet Yellen has talked about it, but of course she will never admit that the Federal Reserve has played a key role in creating this bubble.  They say that hindsight is 20/20, but what is happening right in front of our eyes in 2015 is so obvious that everyone should be able to see it.  Just like with all other financial bubbles throughout our history, someday people will look back and talk about how stupid we all were. Continue reading »

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May 06

FYI.


Martin Armstrong The System Will Crack And One World Currency Is Coming

Related info:

Martin Armstrong: Big Losses Coming In The Bond Market – Fall 2015 Turning Point – European Banks Will Collapse – Civil Unrest And Riots Globally – Gold To ‘Max Out At $5000 Per Ounce’ (Video)

Martin Armstrong Warns ‘Abandon The UK Before You Can’t’

 

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Apr 30

FOMC Is Bluffing; Prepare for QE4 and No Rate Hike (Video) (SchiffGold, April 28, 2015):

The Federal Reserve has a two-day meeting this week. CNBC World asked Peter Schiff what he expects the results of the meeting will be. Peter argued that the Fed will continue to bluff about raising interest rates. He believes a fourth round of quantitative easing is more likely in the next year.
Follow along with this transcript:

Peter: The bigger problem for the US market is the softening US data that came out today. And now the weakening US dollar, which I think is about to get a lot weaker as people get their arms around the real predicament that the US economy is in. Continue reading »

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Apr 27

7-yr-cycle

Is This a Blow-Off Top? Four Ways to Tell (Of Two Minds, April 27, 2015):

Those who lived through the last two speculative blow-off tops know the impossibility of predicting the final top.

How can we tell if stocks are in the final blow-off stage of a bubble? There are four basic give-aways: Continue reading »

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Apr 25

Just 6 Charts (ZeroHedge, April 25, 2015)

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Apr 24

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Why Nav Sarao Had To Be Destroyed: He Found A Way To Beat The HFTs At Their Own Game (ZeroHedge, April 24, 2015):

Now that the confusion and the initial smoke following the stunning CFTC/DOJ/FBI allegation that the entire Flash Crash was the result of just one high latency UK trader’s actions has cleared, several critical things have emerged.

First: Nav Sarao not a typical massively funded, connected and lobby-protected High Frequency Trader, such as Citadel or Virtu, using countless algos across numerous fragmented markets to frontrun size order blocks, but an old-school “point and click” prop trader. This is how he described his trading style in a response to the UK regulator:

I am an old school point and click prop trader. To this day I am still using the mouse to trade. That is how I trade, that is how I always have traded, admittedly very very fast because I have always been good with reflexes and doing things quick. My trading is for the most part very short term and for very small profits, a large proportion of my profits are 1 price movements, which in the eminiSP’s case would be a quarter of a tick. I have also take longer term positions In the past and my biggest day was actually made for the most part whilst I was sleeping!  Continue reading »

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Apr 24

Collapse

11 Signs That We Are Entering The Next Phase Of The Global Economic Crisis (Economic Collapse, April 23, 2015):

Well, the Nasdaq finally did it.  It has climbed all the way back to where it was at the peak of the dotcom bubble.  Back in March 2000, the Nasdaq set an all-time record high of 5,048.62.  On Thursday, after all these years, that all-time record was finally eclipsed.  The Nasdaq closed at 5056.06, and Wall Street greatly rejoiced.  So if you invested in the Nasdaq at the peak of the dotcom bubble, you are just finally breaking even 15 years later.  Unfortunately, the truth is that stocks have not been soaring because the U.S. economy is fundamentally strong.  Just like the last two times, what we are witnessing is an irrational financial bubble.  Sometimes these irrational bubbles can last for a surprisingly long time, but in the end they always burst.  And even now there are signs of economic trouble bubbling to the surface all around us.

The following are 11 signs that we are entering the next phase of the global economic crisis: Continue reading »

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Apr 24

traders brokers hands on face stock market collapse

“I’m Not Crazy, I’m Scared” – Why For One Trader, This Time It Is Different (ZeroHedge, April 24, 2015):

Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow, author of “Trader’s Notes” is painfully accurate with his latest take on the “markets.”

I’m Not Crazy, I’m Scared Continue reading »

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Apr 23

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Worst Macro Data in 6 Years Sends Stocks Soaring To Record Highs (ZeroHedge, April 23, 2015)

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Apr 23

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Why Sarao Is The Flash Crash Patsy: He Threatened To Expose The “Mass Manipulation Of High Frequency Nerds” (ZeroHedge, April 23, 2015):

There are several notable items in Bloomberg’s comprehensive overnight summary of the epic humiliation America’s market regulators are about to undergo, complete with yet another round of theatrical Congressional kangaroo courts, which will lead to a lot of red faces, a wrist slap or two and maybe even the termination of one or two lowly employees and… nothing else.

Because what difference does it make?

At this point only a bottom-up overhaul can “fix” the fragmented, broken market which by definition can only come after the next market crash, one which will promptly be blamed on HFTs (which leaving the central bankers unscathed).

Back to the Bloomberg piece in which we first discover that it wasn’t even the CFTC that, 5 years later, “figured out” the flash crash was one person’s fault: Continue reading »

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Apr 23

“Fed has created abnormal market conditions by printing money and keeping interest rates low. Investors are looking for growth anywhere they can find it and tech companies are good targets – at these values, however, all tech stocks are expensive – even looking at 5+ years of revenue growth down the road. This means that most value-driven investors have left the market and the remaining 5-10%+ increase in market value will be driven by momentum investors. At some point there won’t be any momentum investors left buying at higher prices, and the market begins to tumble. May be 10-20% correction or something more significant, especially in tech stocks.”


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How The Second Tech Bubble Will Burst, In The Words Of Silicon Valley’s “Poster Child” And World’s Youngest Billionaire (ZeroHedge, April 23, 2015):

Back in December, following the Sony email leak, the world was granted a second (again uninvited) glimpse into the private life and thoughts of the person who had previously suffered another email leak, this time exposing his fraternity days explots: Snapchat founder and CEO Evan Spiegel.

And while many have been quick to mock Spiegel for some of his boyish ways, the reality is that the not only is the 24-year-old the world’s youngest billionaire, but he has quickly won the admiration of Silicon Valley’s brand names like Twitter CEO Dick Costolo who has said “I really think he is one of the best product thinkers out there right now.” Continue reading »

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