Last April, we commented on the most blatant (pre) revolving door we had ever seen at the SEC (and there have been many): the departure of the SEC’s head HFT investigator, Gregg Berman, who during his tenure at the agency (whose alleged purpose is to keep the “market” fair, efficient and unmanipulated) did everything in his power to draw attention away from HFTs. He did that, for example, by blaming Waddell and Reed for the May 2010 flash crash. This is what Berman, whose full title was the SEC’s “Associate Director of the Office of Analytics and Research in the Division of Trading and Markets” said in the final version of the agency’s Flash Crash report: Continue reading »
Prepare for the coming crash. (It could already happen this month.)
Since the early 2000s, I’ve been describing a coming economic depression that will dwarf the one that began in 1929. But this is by no means guesswork or crystal ball gazing. Whenever a country (or countries) creates debt that is beyond the level that they can ever repay, an economic collapse is a near-certainty. Today, many jurisdictions, particularly, the US, EU, UK, Canada, etc. have created debt that is far beyond anything the world has ever seen. This assures us that the corresponding collapse will be of epic proportions.
Of course, I’m frequently asked, “When will it happen?” This is all but impossible to predict, but to be perfectly honest, back around 2006, I was guessing, “probably by 2012.” Although I predicted the minor crash of 2008, I felt that the bigger jolt that’s still coming would have been on our doorstep by now. Again, it’s not all that hard to predict the events if you do your homework, but predicting the timing is another matter.
However, I’ve continued to repeat my general principle that when an economic unraveling of major proportions is coming, significant events increase in frequency and severity. Continue reading »
Volatility is the name of the game. Stocks are acting up, but standing strong. Oil is propelling higher and the US dollar is falling. Turmoil around the world has never been higher and an ominous shadow is lurking in the background, ready to strike.
The situation that we now face is ultimately going to end in a collapse of epic proportion. The financial world is now a ticking bomb that is just waiting to explode – I know this, you know this and even if the masses don’t, they can feel it in their bones. Continue reading »
Continue to prepare for collapse.
99% of the people will get totally destroyed financially.
“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”
Aug 13, 2016
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Soros Fund Management has increased its bearish bet against US companies on the S&P 500 index. Its billionaire owner will make money if the index collapses.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 is an American stock market index based on market capitalization of 500 large US companies having common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange or on NASDAQ.
The 86-year-old investor’s fund has reported it had arranged ‘put’ options on roughly 4 million shares as of June 30. This is up from 2.1 million shares as of March 31. Continue reading »
Russia’s MICEX stock index rallied to all-time record highs today. This is likely very disconcerting for The White House as since the March 2014 lows when they issued the following statement: “If I were you, I wouldn’t invest in Russian equities right now,” Russian stocks are up 60% – tripling the 19% gains in the S&P off those lows… Continue reading »
In a historic trifecta, yesterday for the first time this century, all three US indexes posted concurrent record highs. The last time this had happened was on December 31, 1999.
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So there was renewed speculation if Icahn had given up on his record bearish bet. So when overnight IEP released its latest 10-Q, we were eager to find out if Carl had unwound his record short, or perhaps, added more to it. What we found is that one quarter after having a net short position of -149%, as of June 30, Icahn’s net position was once again -149%, or in other words, he has once again never been shorter the market.
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Despite a small beat in MoM data (-1.5% vs -1.9% exp), US factory orders plunged 5.6% YoY – the worst drop since September 2015. This extends the period of annual contraction to 20 months – a record streak of declines in US history and one which has always, without exception, coincided with recession…
The big drop was driven by a plunge in non-defense aircraft and parts… (even with a surge in car orders)
It’s probably nothing though…
Well, we are now almost exactly three months away from the November 8 election, and if Trump wants to really boost his chances, a market crash right now would be certainly most welcome by his campaign.
That may be why Trump on Tuesday urged his supporters holding 401-(k) to get out of equities as interest rates set by the Federal Reserve are inflating the stock market.
“I did invest and I got out, and it was actually very good timing,” the Republican presidential nominee said in a phone interview with Fox Business. “But I’ve never been a big investor in the stock market.” “Interest rates are artificially low,” Trump said. “The only reason the stock market is where it is is because you get free money.”
It’s earnings season once again and it looks as if, as a group, corporate America still can’t find the end of its earnings decline since profits peaked over a year ago. What’s more analysts, renowned for their Pollyannish expectations, can’t seem to find it, either.
So I thought it might be interesting to look at what the stock market has done in the past during earnings recessions comparable to the current one. And it’s pretty eye-opening. Over the past half-century, we have never seen a decline in earnings of this magnitude without at least a 20% fall in stock prices, a hurdle many use to define a bear market.
In other words, buying the new highs in the S&P 500 today means you believe “this time is different.” It could turn out that way but history shows that sort of thinking to be very dangerous to your financial wellbeing.
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The traditionally outspoken Steve Wynn continued doing what he does best during the quarterly WYNN earnings call, which is rage against what he sees as the problem du jour in the US economy. Recall that last quarter he set his sight on the manipulated US stock market, and HFT traders in particular:
“The other day I was watching the stock open up, and it went up on share volumes of a few thousand shares. I mean, every trade was a tick up. That’s not the way it should operate in an honestly or intelligently run exchange. But that’s the thing, all those guys sold their dark pools and their order flow and the positioning on the floors of the servers to the HFTs. And it’s made a couple of guys that I’m friendly with very rich because they are high-frequency traders. But I don’t respect the activity, and I’m severely critical of it. And don’t mind saying so, either.”
This time, during the July 28 Q2 earnings call, the 74 year old billionaire chimed in on the most important topic for the US economy over the next 4 months: the presidential election, and – in typical brutally frank fashion – he cuts right to the chase. Here is the key segment, with our highlights, responding to a question on what to expect from the US election. Continue reading »
This Jubilee Year is advancing just as I have predicted, with all the major elements of a worldwide catastrophe now in place.
On Monday, the markets continued to collapse, with every major European stock market down 2-3% and the Dow currently down 300 points following Black Friday which, we now know, was the worst sell-off in worldwide stock markets in history, losing a combined $2 trillion.
The previous largest sell-off in history occurred 7 years, 7 months, 7 weeks and 7 days prior, on the Shemitah end day of September 29, 2008, when $1.9 trillion was erased in one day. Continue reading »