Nov 20

The End Of The Recovery, In One Chart:

One of the questions on analysts’ minds lately is whether stock prices can keep moving up when corporate sales and profits are falling. But the same can be asked about the overall economy. Why would companies hire more people if they’re selling less stuff? The answer is that they probably won’t. As the chart below — put together by good friend Michael Pollaro — illustrates, business sales and employment have tracked closely since at least the 1990s. When sales have fallen, companies have responded with less hiring and more firing.

But for the past year sales have declined while reported employment has risen.


Unless this relationship no longer holds, one of these lines will have to change course very soon. And since sales are beyond anyone’s control, it’s a safe bet that employment will be the one to give.

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Oct 23

Draghi Speaks, Euro Falls Off Chart, Stocks Soar Despite Layoffs, Shrinking Revenues, and Evil “Strong Dollar” that just Got a Heck of Lot Stronger:

There has been a litany of layoff announcements recently: Biogen said yesterday that it would axe 11% of its people. ESPN would lay off 4% of its people. Twitter a couple of days ago said it would slash its workforce by 8%. Microsoft and HP are currently very busy shedding tens of thousands of workers.

Caterpillar announced over 10,000 layoffs last month. Intuit kicked off a new round of layoffs this summer. Permanently troubled former highflyer Groupon is laying of 1,100 folks. Even startups. Zomato, based in India, is laying of 300 folks, many of them in the US. Flipagram laid off 20% of its workers. And on and on. Even Snapchat. Continue reading »

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Oct 08


According To Bernanke, This Was The “Biggest Impact Of QE”:

Are you ready for this… are you sitting down… you better be sitting down. Here it comes


just :0

From “hope” to “nope”…


“Peak Self-Delusion” or just another Big Lie?

Charts: Bloomberg

Continue reading »

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Oct 04


Right Now There Are 102.6 Million Working Age Americans That Do Not Have A Job:

The federal government uses very carefully manipulated numbers to cover up the crushing economic depression that is going on in this nation.  For the month of September, the federal government told us that 142,000 jobs were added to the economy.  If that was actually true, that would barely be enough to keep up with population growth.  Sadly, the truth is that the real numbers were actually far worse than that.  The unadjusted numbers show that the U.S. economy actually lost 248,000 jobs in September and the government added more than a million Americans to the “not in the labor force” category.  When I first saw that number I truly believed that it was inaccurate.  But you can find the raw figures right here.  According to the Obama administration, there are currently 7.9 million Americans that are “officially unemployed” and another 94.7 million working age Americans that are “not in the labor force”.  That gives us a grand total of 102.6 million working age Americans that do not have a job right now.

That is not an economic recovery – that is an economic depression of an almost unbelievable magnitude. Continue reading »

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Sep 15

Behold The European Recovery: Deutsche Bank To Fire 25% Of All Workers

Deutsche Bank has witnessed an exodus of executives this year in what’s been a tough stretch for the German lender. Here’s a brief recap of the bank’s recent trials and travails for those who need a refresher:

The bank, which has paid out more than $9 billion over the past three years alone to settle legacy litigation, has become something of a poster child for corrupt corporate culture.

In April, Deutsche settled rate rigging charges with the DoJ for $2.5 billion (or about $25,474 per employee) and subsequently paid $55 million to the SEC (an agency that’s been run by former Deutsche Bank employees and their close associates for years) in connection with allegations it deliberately mismarked its crisis-era LSS book to the tune of at least $5 billion.
Continue reading »

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Sep 07

domestic vs foreign August 2015

698K Native-Born Americans Lost Their Job In August: Why This Suddenly Is The Most Important Jobs Chart (ZeroHedge, Sep 7, 2015):

After the Fed admitted over a year ago that the US unemployment rate (which in 2012 was supposed to be a rate hike “threshold” once it hit 6.5% and is now at 5.1%) has become irrelevant in a country where a record 94 million people have left the labor force, and with the Fed poised to hike rates even though US hourly wages have not only not increased for the past 7 years, but for the vast majority of the labor force continue to decline, some have asked – is there any labor-related chart that matters any more?

The answer: a resounding yes, only it is none of the conventional charts that algos and sometimes humans look at. Continue reading »

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Sep 04

Record 94 Million Americans Not In The Labor Force; Participation Rate Lowest Since 1977 (ZeroHedge, Sep 4, 2015):

While the kneejerk headling scanning algos are focusing on the seasonally-adjusted headline monthly NFP increase which came in a worse than expected 173K, the presidential candidates – especially the GOP – are far more focused on another data point: the labor force participation rate, and the number of Americans not in the labor force. Here, they will have some serious ammo, because according to the BLS, the main reason why the unemployment rate tumbled to the lowest since April 2008 is because another 261,000 Americans dropped out of the labor force, as a result pushing the total number of US potential workers who are not in the labor force, to a record 94 million, an increase of 1.8 million in the past year, and a whopping 14.9 million since the start of the second great depression in December 2007 while only 4 million new jobs have been created.

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Sep 03

challenger by state

Total 2015 Job Cuts To Be Biggest Since 2009: Challenger (ZeroHedge, Sept 3, 2015):

Moments ago Challenger reported August job cuts, which at 41,186 were a 60% drop from the 115,730 reported last month (the highest since September 2011), which however was driven by a one-time mass layoffs last month in military staffing. Putting August in its correct perspective, the number was 2.9% higher than the same month a year ago, when 40,010 planned job cuts were announced.

What is troubling is that this marks the seventh month this year that the job-cut total was higher than the comparable month from 2014.

What is worse is that for all the euphoria about initial claims printing at or near record lows, the reality as measured from the bottom-up, is far different and as Challenger notes, so far in 2015 employers have announced 434,554 job cuts: that is up 31 percent from the 332,931 planned layoffs in the first eight months of 2014. Continue reading »

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Sep 01

ConocoPhillips Fires 10% Of Global Workforce, Warns Of “Dramatic Downturn” To Oil Industry (ZeroHedge, Sept 1, 2015):

Where the great oil crash hits close to home for most Americans, is when firms such as Houston based ConocoPhillips announce that the E&P giant is about to terminate 10%, or 1,800 people, of its global workforce, in the next several weeks as it copes with low oil prices. “Our industry is undergoing a dramatic downturn, which has caused us to look at our future workforce needs. As we have assessed the implications of lower prices on our business, we’ve made the difficult decision that workforce reductions will be necessary.”

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Aug 25


Brazil’s flagging economy, which is mired in stagflation and remains a slave both to China and to what looks like intractable political turmoil, has destroyed nearly 550,000 jobs YTD. As Barclays notes, ” [the July] print is compatible with 140,939 job eliminations, pretty close to the historical low of -154,355 in June.”

In more ways than one (or two, or three) Brazil is the poster child for the global emerging market unwind that, thanks to China’s yuan devaluation, has accelerated dramatically over the course of the last week.

To be sure, the combination of slowing demand from China, the (now lower) possibility of a Fed rate hike, and, perhaps most importantly, the Continue reading »

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Aug 14

Obamanomics – Union Pacific Cuts 100s Of Jobs On Coal Shipments Collapse (ZeroHedge, Aug 14, 2015):

There will be more Americans tonight newly questioning President Obama’s Clean Power Plan, as NBCNews reports, Union Pacific will cut hundreds of management jobs as the amount of coal shipped by railroads continues to plunge.

Coal carloads down YoY 25 weeks in a row…


As NBCNews reports,

 The Omaha company reported late last month that coal volume dropped 26 percent in its most recent quarter and said it believed that demand for coal would remain weak for the rest of the year. Continue reading »

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Aug 12


–  Uncle Warren Strikes Again: Kraft Heinz Cuts 2,500 Jobs (ZeroHedge, Aug 12, 2015):

Thanks, Uncle Warren.

The Kraft-Heinz merger engineered earlier this year by everyone’s favorite folksy octogenarian billionaire along with 3G will cost some 2,500 people their jobs, as the combined entity looks to cut costs.

CEO (and 3G partner) Bernardo Hees has already slashed jobs on the Heinz side of things, so now it’s apparently time for Kraft employees to do their part to facilitate merger “synergies.”

Via AP: Continue reading »

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Aug 07

which perfectly explains that

July Payrolls Rise 215K, Less Than Expected; Annual Earnings Growth Miss, Unemployment Remains At 5.3%

Americans Not In The Labor Force Rise To Record 93.8 Million, Participation Rate At 1977 Level (ZeroHedge, Aug 6, 2015):

While the Fed is digesting what the X-13 Arima seasonally adjusted payrolls number means for the future of US interest rates, the devastation of the US labor force continues.

In what was an “modestly” unpleasant July payrolls report, yet somewhat better than June’s flagrant disappointment, the fact is that the number of Americans not in the labor force rose once again, this time by 144,000 to a record 93,770,000 million, with the result a participation rate of 62.6% which remains at a level more indicative of the September 1977 economy.

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Aug 06

Explain This… (ZeroHedge, Aug 6, 2015):

Initial jobless claims rose modestly this week but remain near 40 year lows as hoarding continues, and job cuts are at 4-year highs. So, we ask, just what is going on in this chart?

Charts: Bloomberg

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Aug 06


Job Cuts Soar To Highest Since September 2011 After Mass Army Terminations, Highest YTD Layoffs Since 2009 (ZeroHedge, Aug 6, 2015):

While we await for the BLS to report another seasonally adjusted Initial Claims report which will be near multi-decade lows, a far more disturbing report was released moments ago by outplacement consultancy Challenger Gray, which has done a far better job of compiling true layoff data, and which reported that in July there was a whopping 105,696, up 136% from the 44,842 job cuts in June, and the highest in nearly four years, or since September 2011, which the last time there were more than more than 100,000 layoffs.

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Jul 31


Italy Youth Unemployment Hits Record High 44.2%, Concerns Rising “Recession Exit May Be Unsustainable” (ZeroHedge, July 31, 2015):

While the overall unemployment rate for the Eurozone also unchanged at 11.1%, it was renewed concern about what is going on in Italy, where unemployment rose from 12.5% to 12.7%, while Italy’s youth unemployment rate, which surprisingly jumped by nearly 2% to 44.2%, a record level.  As Bloomberg put it, “Italy’s jobless rate unexpectedly rose in June as businesses continue to dismiss workers amid concerns that the country’s exit from recession may not be sustainable.”



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Jul 29

The Layoffs Return: Energy Giants Chevron, Saipem To Fire Over 10,000 Workers (ZeroHedge, July 29, 2015):

In the beginning of 2015 the biggest threat to the economy as a result of the collapse in oil prices, both in the US and worldwide, was the surge in layoffs among highly-paid energy sector job. This was confirmed in April when we showed the Challenger layoffs data for the energy-heavy state of Texas, and the energy sector in general where the 37,811 job cuts in Q1 were some 3,900% higher than a year earlier.

layoffs by state_3

Then in Q2, after the price of oil staged a substantial rebound of about 50% from the year to date lows in the $40’s, energy-related layoffs trickled to a halt as corporations hoped the worst is behind them, and as a result would merely bide their time before redeploying their workforce toward exploration and production. Continue reading »

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Jun 24



–  French Unemployment Hits Record High: 80th Consecutive Month Of Rising Joblessness (ZeroHedge, June 24, 2015):

While French president Hollande is busy “grilling” (in the words of The Local) president Obama over the latest US “spying on its allies” snafu, the French economy continues to deteriorate and according to the latest French labor ministry data, in May the number of French jobseekers rose by another 0.5%, or 16,200, to 3.552 million, 10k more than expected, and a new all time high.

The number was 5%, or 168,500 greater, compared to a year ago as the so-called European recovery has yet to have a positive impact on what is supposed to be Europe’s second strongest economy.

Most troubling: this is the 80th consecutive month of increasing Y/Y unemployment, yet stocks are delighted of course.

Continue reading »

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Jun 16

Related info:

93 Million Americans Remain Out Of The Labor Force Despite Nearly 400K Work Pool Increase

What’s The Real Unemployment Rate In The US? (Of Two Minds, June 16, 2015):

By my reckoning, roughly 60% of the civilian work force is fully employed and 40% are marginally employed or unemployed.

Officially, the unemployment rate in the U.S. is 5.6%, meaning 5.6% of the work force is temporarily out of a job and actively seeking another one. This low number reflects nearly full employment, as 3% to 4% of the work force is typically in the process of quitting/being laid off and finding another job. Continue reading »

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Jun 05

“The Job Numbers Literally Do Not Add Up” (ZeroHedge, June 5, 2015):

The last time the Establishment Survey was as robust as the past year or so was 1999; then, the average productivity was 3.7%! That number actually makes sense intuitively, since businesses would have good reason to go on a hiring spree. Porting that to the current period, as in the mathematical construction of productivity here, would mean, holding output constant, that total hours in the past five quarters would have been not +2.7% but -1.7%. These numbers literally do not add up.


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Jun 01


HSBC Joins JPMorgan: Prepares To Unveil Up To 20,000 Job Cuts (ZeroHedge, June 1, 2015):

The banking system must be doing great… just days after JPMorgan announced mass layoffs, SkyNews reports that HSBC is preparing to announce a revised headcount target, which insiders said that it was likely to be between 10,000 and 20,000 job cuts.

As Sky News reports,

HSBC will next week set out plans to cut thousands more jobs across its global workforce as it tries to reassure shareholders that its focus on costs remains undiminished after a series of reputational crises.

Continue reading »

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Jun 01


French Unemployment Surges By Most In 7 Months To New Record High (ZeroHedge, June 1, 2015):

Is it any wonder Marin Le Pen’s Front National Party is a) leading in the polls, and b) pushing for an EU in/out referendum? Whatever it is that France (and/or Europe) is doing, is not working. Despite all the promises, French unemployment has risen practically non-stop for 4 years and just hit a new all-time record…

Hollande #Fail


But of course none of that matters… the CAC 40 is surging… Continue reading »

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May 07

The Texas Job Recession Is Now Literally “Off The Chart” (ZeroHedge, May 7, 2015):

The paradoxical, utterly nonsensical “data” releases continue.

On one hand, the government’s Department of Labor reported earlier today that in the past week just 265K people were laid off: the lowest number since early 2000. On the other, private data aggregator Challenger reported that in April, there were a whopping 61,582 job cuts, a 68% surge from March, and up 53% from a year ago. This was the highest monthly total since May 2012 and the highest April total since 2009! Continue reading »

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May 03

H/t reader M.G.:

“Article on disparity of true joblessness with the current mendacious 5.5% US figures……Who believes these numbers?”

Related info:

Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar To Record 93.2 Million As Participation Rate Drops To February 1978 Levels


Official ‘unemployment’ rate understates true U.S. joblessness (Al Jazeera, May 2, 2015):

Discouraged workers, stagnant wages and underemployment mean labor force has less participation than formally indicated

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Apr 30

–  European Unemployment By Country: Youth Unemployment In Greece, Spain Remains Over 50% (ZeroHedge, April 30, 2015):

But the scariest data, once again, is revealed in the table of European youth unemployment. Here we see that both Spain and Greece now share the same youth unemployment figure of 50.1%, while Italy has reversed its recent improving trend, and is now at 43.1% and rising.

youth unemployment_0

For anyone asking why Europe’s politicians are terrified at the anti “austerity” wave that is just over the horizon, the table above should have all the answers.

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Apr 03

Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar To Record 93.2 Million As Participation Rate Drops To February 1978 Levels (ZeroHedge, April 3, 2015):

So much for yet another “above consensus” recovery, and what’s worse it is, well, about to get even worse, because while the Fed keeps baning some illusory drum that slack in the economy is almost non-existent, the reality is that in March the number of people who dropped out of the labor force rose by yet another 277K, up 2.1 million in the past year, and has reached a record 93.175 million.

Indicatively, this means that the labor force participation rate dropped once more, from 62.8% to 62.7%, a level seen back in February 1978, even as the BLS reported that the entire labor force actually declined for the second consecutive month, down almost 100K in March to 156,906.


Why is this important? Because as long as the true employment rate, that of the civilian employment to total population, remains at depression levels, there will be no incrases in average hourly earnings. Continue reading »

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Mar 20

How Many Shale Oil Plays Make Money At $37 Per Barrel? (Spoiler Alert: None) (The Burning Platform, March 18, 2015):

I’m tossing you a softball. Now think carefully. The choices are:

A. Zero

B. Zero

C. Zero

D. Zero

I know Americans are math challenged and need a calculator to subtract 10 from 20, but I think even a CNBC bimbo or Princeton economic professor could get this one right.

Last year there was much banter from the Wall Street shysters and Bakkan shale oil experts about the true breakeven price for shale oil not being $80 (which is the truth) but actually being as low as $58 a barrel. They were spreading this lie in order to keep idiot investors buying the stocks and bonds of these fly by night shale oil companies.

bakkan-shale-oil Continue reading »

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Mar 14

From the article:

“That the manner in which we live today is about to drastically change, and that this coming change is being hidden from us deliberately by those who wish to use a tactic of financial shock and awe to their ultimate advantage.”

Related info:

One Last Look At The Real Economy Before It Implodes – Part 1

debt slave1

One Last Look At The Real Economy Before It Implodes – Part 2 (ALT-MARKET, March 11, 2015):

Consumer spending in the U.S. accounts for approximately 70 percent of gross domestic product, though it is important to note that the manner in which “official” GDP is calculated is highly inaccurate. For example, all government money used within the Medicare coverage system to pay for “consumer health demands,” as well as the now flailing Obamacare socialized welfare program, are counted toward GDP, despite the fact that such capital is created from thin air by the Federal Reserve and also generates debt for the average taxpayer. Government debt creation does not beget successful domestic production. If that was a reality, then all socialist and communist countries (same thing) would be wildly enriched today. This is simply not the case.

That said, the swift decline in manufacturing jobs in the U.S. over the past two decades, including a considerable 33 percent overall decline in manufacturing jobs from 2001 to 2010, leaves only the consumer and service sectors as the primary areas of employment and “production.” The service sector provides about three out of every four jobs available in America, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Continue reading »

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Mar 09

Nearly At ‘Full Employment’? 10 Reasons Why The Unemployment Numbers Are A Massive Lie (Economic Collapse, March 8, 2015):

On Friday, we learned that the official “unemployment rate” has fallen to 5.5 percent. Since an unemployment rate of 5 percent is considered to be “full employment” by many economists, many in the mainstream media took this as a sign that the U.S. economy has almost fully “recovered” since the last recession.  In fact, according to the Wall Street Journal, some Federal Reserve officials believe that “the U.S. economy is already at full employment“.  But how can this possibly be?  It certainly does not square with reality.  Personally, I know people that have been struggling with unemployment for years and that still cannot find a decent job.  And I get emails from readers all the time that are heartbroken because they are suffering through extended periods of unemployment.  Continue reading »

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Feb 25

This Is Why Hewlett-Packard Is Firing 58,000 (ZeroHedge, Feb 24, 2015):

The biggest scandal in today’s release of Hewlett Packard Q1 earnings was not that, just as the Nasdaq is knocking on 5000’s door, it reported revenues of $26.8 billion missing consensus expectations of $27.3 billion, while beating non-GAAP EPS by 1 cent to $0.92 (up from $0.90 a year ago) entirely due to a massive reduction in outstanding stock and some truly gargantuan non-GAAP addbacks (GAAP EPS declined from $0.74 a year ago to $0.73) pushing the stock down 7% after hours.

The biggest scandal was the company announced that having cut 44,000 workers so far, it will cut 58,000 jobs by the end of 2015.

From Bloomberg:


Incidentally, just 10 years ago Hewlett Packard employed a total of 58,000 people in the entire US.

So why is the company axing 58 thousand workers? Simple: so it can cut enough costs on top and continue to fund its now exponential surge in stock buybacks, which in the just concluded quarter was a record $1.6 billion, an increase of 178% from a year ago, and 66% more than the company spent on CapEx, in the process making its shareholders even richer while its management team get massive equity-linked bonuses.

Rinse. Repeat.

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