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Did you know that the number of working age Americans that do not have a job right now is far higher than it was during the worst moments of the last recession? For example, in January 2009 92.6 million working age Americans did not have a job, but we just found out that in May the number of working age Americans without a job increased to just a shade under 102 million. We’ll go over those numbers in more detail in a moment, but first I want to talk a bit about the difference between perception and reality. According to the bureaucrats in the federal government, the “unemployment rate” in May was the lowest that we have seen in 16 years. At just “4.3 percent”, we are essentially at “full employment”, and so according to them anyone that really wants a job should be able to find one pretty easily.
Of course that is a load of nonsense. John Williams of shadowstats.com tracks what our economic numbers would look like if honest numbers were being used, and according to his calculations the unemployment rate is currently 22 percent.
So what accounts for the wide disparity between those numbers?
Real unemployment rate at +- 23%, not 4.7% as mainstream news and government claims.
Monthly Labor Department jobs reports are phony. Paul Craig Roberts calls them “a bad joke,” saying America’s economy is a “house of cards.” A day of reckoning awaits.
Job numbers are inflated, manufactured out of thin air, partly based on a so-called birth-death model, estimating net non-reported jobs from new businesses minus losses from others no longer operating.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) admits misreporting, saying “(t)he confidence level for the monthly change in total employment is on the order of plus or minus 430,000 jobs.”
UniCredit announced on Tuesday a major restructuring plan to raise €13 billion in capital to return the Italian bank to profitability, hoping that a balance-sheet cleanup and cost cuts will persuade investors that Italy’s biggest bank can restore profitability even without much revenue growth. As part of the three-year strategy, the bank plans to shed an additional 6,500 jobs, bringing the total to 14,000, as it aims for 1.7 billion euros of annual cost savings. The bank is targeting 4.7 billion euros of net profit in 2019 with a return on tangible equity above 9%, Milan-based UniCredit laid out in a presentation this morning.
So much for that much anticipated rebound in the participation rate.
After it had managed to post a modest increase in the early part of the year, hitting the highest level in one year in March at 63%, the disenchantment with working has returned, and the labor force participation rate had flatlined for the next few month, ultimately dropping in November to 62.7%, just shy of its 35 year low of 62.4% hit last October. This can be seen in the surge of Americans who are no longer in the labor force, who spiked by 446,000 in November, hitting an all time high of 95.1 million.
As a result of this the US labor force shrank by 226,000 to 159,486K, down from 159,712K a month ago, and helped the unemployment rate tumble to 4.6%, the lowest level since August 2007.
H/t reader squodgy:
“This will speed up the Sino-Russian project.
If the US sanctions screw up sales of planes by both puppet aircraft manufacturers Boeing & Airbus, the US are cutting everyone’s noses to spite Iran.”
Airbus has announced plans to cut more than 1,100 jobs across Europe and close one of its sites in the Paris region, capping a year marked by a series of losses.
The company has been running into headwinds with its A350 passenger jet – Airbus’s answer to the Boeing 787 Dreamliner – which has missed several targets to take off commercially.
Airbus has also suffered losses of about two billion euros on its A400M military transporter while its helicopter division has suffered from a weak market.
According to Airbus spokesman Jacques Rocca, the layoffs will be spread across four countries, with 640 jobs cut in France, 429 in Germany, 54 in Britain and 39 in Spain.
Setting the mood ahead of tomorrow’s “critical” for the Fed’s September rate hike decision payrolls report, moments ago, WSJ reported that Wal-Mart Stores plans to cut 7,000 back office positions around the country, a restructuring move that in addition to seeking to improve its efficiency, will drastically alter the layout of its workforce, which as recently as a year ago was delighted by WMT’s minimum wage price hikes.
WSJ reports that the country’s largest private employer is eliminating about 7,000 U.S. store accounting and invoicing positions over the next several months, jobs mostly held by long-term employees, often some of the highest paid hourly workers in stores. The retailer wants those employees working with shoppers, not in backrooms, say company executives. Centralizing or automating much of those tasks is more efficient, they say.
With France calling for the EU’s budget limits to be lifted and everyone breaking every rule of fiscal responsibility – because Draghi has killed the market’s signal – the fear of ever deepening deficits is (for now) removed. Enabling governments to do “whatever it takes” to get re-elected, because reforms are vote-killers, has incentivized an ever-growing group of Europeans to simply give up the job search… with Italians at the top of the list…
Going from the final quarter of 2015 through March of this year, 37 percent of unemployed Italians gave up their job search, while only 13 percent landed new work and a full half found their status unchanged.
Based on a new report by Fathom Consulting, it appears that China is also dramatically misreporting what may be the one most critical for social stability metric, its unemployment rate, which when stripped away of the political propaganda, is more than three times greater than the officially reported rate. According to Fathom, China’s underemployment Indicator has tripled to 12.9% since 2012 even while the official jobless rate has hovered near 4% for five years.
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This is exactly what we have been expecting to happen. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the U.S. economy only added 38,000 jobs in May. This was way below the 158,000 jobs that analysts were projecting, and it is also way below what is needed just to keep up with population growth. In addition, the number of jobs created in April was revised down by 37,000 and the number of jobs created in March was revised down by 22,000. This was the worst jobs report in almost six years, and the consensus on Wall Street is that it was an unmitigated disaster.
How do you know the Fed is justified in hiking again, the economy is recovering, and the market are zooming higher? One hint is the just announced thousands in layoffs in both the energy and tech sector, among which are Shell, which announced it would layoff 2,200 jobs; Microsoft reporting it would cut 1,850; and Intel terminating up to 350 jobs in Germany.
In addition to the poor headline Establishment survey print which rose only 160,000 in April, coupled with a deplorable Household survey employment number which plunged by 316,000 for the month and below levels seen in February, an even more concerning development was the resumption in the deteriorating trend in the US labor force participation rate, which in recent months had been on a steady increase as far fewer workers were dropping out of the workforce (contrary to convention wisdom, this was not driven by new entrants into the labor force).
All that changed today, when the number of Americans not in the labor force soared by a whopping 562,000 in April, pushing the grand total of people not in the labor force back over 94 million and fast approaching the all time high of 94.6 million.
Full article here:
Watch as Carrier workers in Indiana discover who’s really “peddling fiction”…
During his victory speech last night in the New Hampshire Republican primary, Donald Trump exposed what everyone knows but doesnit dare admit: the “phony” unemployment numbers that Obama continues to crow about and The Fed is so focused on….
“Don’t believe those phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5% unemployment. The number’s probably 28%, 29%, as high as 35%, in fact, I even heard recently 42%,”
How does he justify such large estimates? Simple…
Continue to prepare for (total) collapse.