Infinite Unknown

A string of countries face the risk of “going bust” as financial panic sweeps Asia, Eastern Europe, and Latin America, raising the spectre of a strategic crisis in some of the world’s most dangerous spots.

Nuclear-armed Pakistan is bleeding foreign reserves at an alarming rate leading to fears that it could default on its loans.

There are mounting fears that Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Argentina could all now slide into a downward spiral towards bankruptcy, while western banks exposed to property bubble across Eastern Europe have seen their share price crushed.

The markets are pricing an 80pc risk that Ukraine will default, based on five-year credit default swaps (CDS) - an insurance policy on a country being able to pay its debts.

The country’s banking system has begun to break down after years of torrid credit growth; its steel mills are shutting as demand collapses; and the political crisis is going from bad to worse.

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Tags: Argentina, BNP Paribas, Brazil, China, Commodities, Derivatives, Derivatives market, Economy, financial crisis, IMF, India, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Politics, Russia, Standard & Poor's, Stock Market, Treasury, U.S., Ukraine

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) — Federal regulators directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to start purchasing $40 billion a month of underperforming mortgage bonds as the Bush administration expands its options to buy troubled financial assets and resuscitate the U.S. economy, according to three people briefed about the plan.

Fannie and Freddie began notifying bond traders last week that each company needs to buy $20 billion a month in mostly subprime, Alt-A and non-performing prime mortgage securities, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the plans are confidential. The purchases would be separate from the U.S. Treasury’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which placed the two companies in conservatorship on Sept. 7, directed them last month to start increasing their purchases of loans and mortgage-backed securities as the Treasury seeks to absorb underperforming and illiquid assets from financial companies.

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Tags: Bush administration, Credit Crisis, credit crunch, Economy, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Government, Henry Paulson, mortgage crisis, Mortgages, Politics, taxpayers, Treasury, U.S.

By PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS

Readers have been pressing for a solution to the financial crisis. But first it is necessary to understand the problem. Here is the problem as I see it. If my diagnosis is correct, the solution below might be appropriate.

Let’s begin with the fact that the financial crisis is more or less worldwide. The mechanism that spread the American-made financial crisis abroad was the massive US trade deficit. Every year the countries with which the US has trade deficits end up in the aggregate with hundreds of billions of dollars.

Countries don’t put these dollars in a mattress. They invest them. They buy up US companies, real estate, and toll roads. They also purchase US financial assets. They finance the US government budget deficit by purchasing Treasury bonds and bills. They help to finance the US mortgage market by purchasing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds. They buy financial instruments, such as mortgage-backed securities and other derivatives, from US investment banks, and that is how the US financial crisis was spread abroad. If the US current account was close to balance, the contagion would have lacked a mechanism by which to spread.

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Tags: Alan Greenspan, bailout, Credit Crisis, credit crunch, debt, Economy, Fed, Federal Reserve, financial crisis, Foreclosures, Government, Henry Paulson, Military, mortgage crisis, Mortgages, Paul Craig Roberts, Politics, Recession, Stock Market, Treasury, U.S., Unemployment, Wall Street

Lehman Brothers, the bust investment bank, triggered one of the biggest corporate debt defaults in history yesterday as it emerged that the US Federal Reserve is harbouring grave concerns about whether Washington’s $700 billion (£413 billion) bailout fund will avert a financial meltdown.

An auction of Lehman’s bonds yesterday determined that the bank’s borrowings were worth only 8.625 cents on the dollar. The valuation leaves the insurers of the debt a bill of about $365 billion. It is not clear whether the insurers, which are required to settle the bill in the next two weeks, will be able to pay - a development that could further undermine increasingly stressed capital markets.

The $365 billion default came as stock markets around the world suffered one of their worst days since the crash of 11 years ago. Panicking about the prospect of global recession, the FTSE 100 index of leading shares in London crashed within seconds of opening, losing 8.9 per cent of its value, its worse fall since October 1987.

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Tags: Banks, Economy, Fed, Federal Reserve, Government, Henry Paulson, Lehman Brothers, Meltdown, Politics, Stock Market, Treasury, U.S., Wall Street

Stock markets across the world are in a state of hysteria. The tidal wave of sell-offs, which began when Henry Paulson announced the Bush administration’s $700 billion bailout plan for the sinking banking system, has swelled into a global tsunami racing round the globe.

Shares fell sharply across Europe and Asia for the fifth straight day following a 679 drop on the Dow Jones.  Nearly $900 billion was wiped off the value of U.S. equities in just one trading day. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, the “fear index”, soared to a record 64.

Credit markets remain frozen. Libor, the London interbank offered rate, nudged up slightly on Thursday night, signaling even greater resistance to lending between the banks. Until there is relief in the credit markets, stocks will continue to slide. But trust has vanished. The 50 basis points rate cut that was coordinated with foreign central banks has had no effect. The market is being driven by fear and pessimism.

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Tags: Bush administration, Credit Crisis, credit crunch, Depression, Economy, FDIC, George Bush, Government, Great Depression, Henry Paulson, Liquidity, Nouriel Roubini, Politics, Stock Market, Treasury, U.S., Wall Street, Warren Buffett

Stocks closed a volatile week with the widest intraday swing on record, in a fitting end to one of the most turbulent five-day periods in financial history.

For the first time in its 112-year existence, the Dow Jones Industrial Average swung in a range of more than one thousand points on an intraday basis. The blue-chip gauge had dropped sharply in early trading, falling more than 600 points and dropping through the 8000 level for the first time in five years. But stocks quickly came off their lows, and by the afternoon the industrials jumped more than 300 points.

In the end, the Dow industrials declined 128.00 points, or 1.5%, to 8451.19. It was helped by jumps of 9.1% for Citigroup and 13.5% for J.P. Morgan Chase. Other major market indexes were mixed. The S&P 500 sank by 10.70 points to 899.22 and the Nasdaq Composite Index gained 4.39 points to 1649.51.

Despite the late turnaround, the Dow tumbled 18% this week, worst in its 112-year history. The industrials also shed more points in a week — 1874.19 — than they ever had previously. The Nasdaq dropped 15% and the S&P 500 declined 18% on the week.

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Tags: Citigroup, Derivatives, Derivatives market, Economy, Fed, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, OPEC, Stock Market, Treasury, U.S., Wall Street

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — Investors pulled a record $52.1 billion from U.S.-managed stock and bond mutual funds in the past week, seeking the safety of government-insured bank deposits as the financial crisis worsened.

Shareholders took $43.3 billion from stock funds and $8.8 billion from bond funds in the week ended Oct. 8, according to data compiled by TrimTabs Investment Research in Sausalito, California. The exodus followed $72.3 billion of outflows in September, the most in a single month. Investors deposited $185.5 billion into bank accounts last month through Sept. 22, TrimTabs said, citing U.S. Federal Reserve data.

“People are scared,” Conrad Gann, TrimTabs’ chief operating officer, said in an interview. “This market is different from what we’ve seen before.”

The five largest diversified U.S. stock fund managers, including Fidelity Investments and Vanguard Group Inc., posted an average 28 percent loss this year through Oct. 6, about 2 percentage points worse than the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to Morningstar Inc. Investors mostly switched into fixed-income through August, putting $97 billion into bond funds while withdrawing $74 billion from stock funds, TrimTabs said.

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Tags: Credit Crisis, Economy, FDIC, Fed, Federal Reserve, financial crisis, Government, mortgage crisis, Standard & Poor's, Treasury

NEW YORK - Stocks plunged in the final hour of trading Thursday, sending the Dow Jones industrial average down 679 points - more than 7 percent - to its lowest level in five years after a major credit ratings agency said it might cut its rating on General Motors Corp.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index also fell more than 7 percent.

The declines came on the one-year anniversary of the closing highs of the Dow and the S&P. The Dow has lost 5,585 points, or 39.4 percent, since closing at 14,198 on Oct. 9, 2007. The S&P 500, meanwhile, is off 655 points, or 41.9 percent, since recording its high of 1,565.15.

U.S. stock market paper losses totaled $872 billion Thursday and the value of shares overall has tumbled a stunning $8.33 trillion since last year’s high. That’s based on preliminary figures measured by the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index, which tracks 5,000 U.S.-based companies’ stocks and represents almost all stocks traded in America.

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Tags: Bush administration, Dow Jones, Economy, General Motors, GM, NYSE, Standard & Poor's, Stock Market, Treasury, U.S., Wall Street

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — The government is planning to buy stakes in a wide range of banks within weeks as the credit freeze increasingly threatens to tip the U.S. economy into a deep recession.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and top aides are still considering options on how the purchases would work, including having the government acquire preferred stock, two officials informed of the matter said.

The move would be a shift in emphasis in Paulson’s original intention for the $700 billion bailout package passed by Congress last week. While the Treasury still aims to buy troubled mortgage-backed securities from financial institutions, a direct capital injection would offer more immediate relief by giving banks quick access to funds they could then lend out.

“The Treasury is no longer looking for one silver bullet,” said Steve Bartlett, president of the Financial Services Roundtable, which represents 100 of the biggest firms in the industry. “They have to proceed on all fronts.”

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Tags: Ben Bernanke, Credit Crisis, credit crunch, Economy, FDIC, Fed, Federal Reserve, Government, Henry Paulson, mortgage crisis, Mortgages, NYSE, Politics, Treasury

Paulson yesterday signaled he’s considering pumping capital (=Taxpayers’ Money) into U.S. financial institutions, saying “we will use all of the tools we’ve been given to maximum effectiveness” under the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program.
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Henry Paulson, secretary of the U.S. Treasury, left, and Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, testify before the House Financial Services Committee in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 24, 2008. Photographer: Joshua Roberts/Bloomberg News

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are discovering both the leeway and limits they have as policy makers as they struggle to combat the 14-month-old credit crisis.

The two have worked to come up with novel strategies, including a complex plan for the Fed to backstop the everyday finances of corporate America by buying commercial paper, and potential injections of capital into banks. So far, they’ve made scant progress in restoring calm to the markets and are turning abroad for help, including joint interest-rate cuts yesterday.

“The relative position of the U.S. in the world economy and the world of finance is much lower than it used to be,” said Allen Sinai, chief economist at Decision Economics in New York. “With markets so global, so interconnected, we need a more unified approach to fighting the world financial crisis.”

Which proves more important in the end — the continued creativity of Bernanke and Paulson in fashioning policies to tackle the turmoil or the intractability of the now global crisis facing them — will go a long way in determining whether a developing global recession turns into something even worse.

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Tags: Ben Bernanke, Credit Crisis, credit crunch, Economy, Fed, Federal Reserve, Government, Henry Paulson, mortgage crisis, Mortgages, Politics, taxpayers, Treasury, U.S., Wall Street