Mar 08

Chinese Exports Collapse Leading To 2nd Largest Trade Deficit On Record (ZeroHedge, March 8, 2014):

Plenty of excuses out there for this evening’s collosal miss in Chinese exports (-18.1% YoY vs an expectation of a 7.5% rise) mainly based on timing issues over the Lunar New Year (but didn’t the 45 economists who forecast this data know the dates before they forecast?) This is a 6-sigma miss and plunges China’s trade balance to its biggest miss on record and 2nd largest deficit on record. Combining Jan and Feb data (i.e. smoothing over the holiday), exports are still down 1.6% YoY – not good for the much-heralded global recovery. Exports to the rest of the BRICs were all down over 20% but no there is no contagion from an emerging market crisis.

Even when the trade deficit was last this large, economists were more accurate – this is the biggest miss on record…

20140307_chinatrade1

Seasonally-adjusted the data is stunningly bad…

  • *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXPORTS FALL 34% MOM
  • *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED IMPORTS FALL 0.4% MOM

and non-seaonally-adjusted Continue reading »

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