For all the scaremongering and threats of an imminent financial apocalypse should Brexit win, including dire forecasts from the likes of George Soros, the Bank of England, David Cameron (who even invoked war), and even Jacob Rothschild, something “unexpected” happened yesterday: the UK was the best performing European market following the Brexit outcome.
This outcome was just as we expected three days ago for reasons that we penned in “Is Soros Wrong“, where we said “in a world in which central banks rush to devalue their currency at any means necessary just to gain a modest competitive advantage in global trade wars, a GBP collapse is precisely what the BOE should want, if it means kickstarting the UK economy.”
On Friday, the market started to price it in too, and in the process revealed that the biggest sovereign losers from Brexit will not be the UK but Europe. Continue reading »
Has the next Lehman Brothers moment arrived? Late Thursday night we learned that the British people had voted to leave the European Union, and this could be the “trigger event” that unleashes great financial panic all over the planet. Of course stocks have already been crashing all over the globe over the past year, but up until now we had not seen the kind of stark fear that the crash of 2008 created following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The British people are certainly to be congratulated for choosing to leave the tyrannical EU, and if I could have voted I would have voted to “leave” as well. But just as I warned 10 days ago, choosing to leave will “throw the entire continent into a state of economic and financial chaos”. And “Black Friday” was just the beginning – the pain from this event is going to continue to be felt for months to come.
The shocking outcome of the Brexit vote caught financial markets completely off guard, and the carnage that we witnessed on Friday was absolutely staggering… Continue reading »
Early this morning we laid out the thoughts of RCB’s Charlie McElligott on today’s dramatic market action, which discussed not the blow up of “fat tail” quant stategies (something we touched upon later and which is likely to unleash even more quant-driven selling next week) and the “forced out” liquidations across the curve coupled with a rush into safety, but also the biggest question of all for today’s trades – which macro funds are quietly blowing up? Now, we follow it up with a second piece by the RBC trader, one which those worried about being caught long risk over the weekend, are urged to read. Continue reading »
Brexit was the right decision to make, but the elitists will make money and let the people pay & suffer anyway (no matter what outcome the referendum had).
The price to pay for Brexit is still very small, compared to the price the people would have to pay for Bremain (seen long-term).
Final update to this historic post, just to make it official :
- BREXIT VOTE-LEAVE HAS WON MORE THAN 16.784 MLN VOTES, ENOUGH TO GUARANTEE VICTORY IN EU REFERENDUM – BBC FIGURES
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Lord Rothschild ordered as expected …
… the market ‘crashing’ button to be pressed…
… and his elite puppet financiers are getting rewarded for their ‘great work’ …
… because …
Soros Fund Management LLC, which manages $30 billion for Mr. Soros and his family, sold stocks and bought gold and shares of gold miners, anticipating weakness in various markets. Investors often view gold as a haven during times of turmoil.
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Sorry but seriously!!
The average forward price-earnings ratio for the Energy sector has been 15.8x.
At the current 97x forward P/E, S&P Energy stocks trade 20 standard deviations rich to history!!
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Jun 16, 2016
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Tags: Banking, Bonds, Collapse, Debt, ECB, Economy, EU, Europe, Fed, Federal Reserve, Gerald Celente, Global News, Gold, Government, Mario Draghi, Military, Obama administration, Politics, Society, Stock Market, U.S., Wall Street, WW III
Merger monday is back with a bang, when moments ago Microsoft announced that it would buy LinkedIn for $196/share, a massive 50% premium to the Friday closing price of $131. The total deal size is $26.2 billion and according to the press release, MSFT will finance the transaction primarily through the issuance of new debt. Indicatively, almost exactly one year ago, LNKD was trading at $300.
Microsoft, which will pay a $725 million termination fee if the deal does not go through, warns that the deal will only become accretive in 2019. This means many synergies are coming for the tech company.
Microsoft also reiterated its intention to complete its existing $40 billion share repurchase authorization by Dec. 31, 2016. Continue reading »
“I can’t tell you how long it’s going to take but I’m anticipating an 80% drop or 70% drop, something in that neighborhood. Tobin’s Q got down to 0.54 in 2009…The reason it didn’t go lower is because we had the biggest fucking bailout ever orchestrated in the history of the banking system…”
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Why is George Soros selling stocks, buying gold and making “a series of big, bearish investments”? If things stay relatively stable like they are right now, these moves will likely cost George Soros a tremendous amount of money. But if a major financial crisis is imminent, he stands to make obscene returns. So does George Soros know something that the rest of us do not? Could it be possible that he has spent too much time reading websites such as The Economic Collapse Blog? What are we to make of all of this?
The recent trading moves that Soros has made are so big and so bearish that they have even gotten the attention of the Wall Street Journal…
Worried about the outlook for the global economy and concerned that large market shifts may be at hand, the billionaire hedge-fund founder and philanthropist recently directed a series of big, bearish investments, according to people close to the matter.
Soros Fund Management LLC, which manages $30 billion for Mr. Soros and his family, sold stocks and bought gold and shares of gold miners, anticipating weakness in various markets. Investors often view gold as a haven during times of turmoil. Continue reading »
“A $68 trillion ‘Biblical’ collapse is poised to wipe out millions of Americans…”
Submitted by Jeff Berwick, The Dollar Vigilante:
Last year, we were the first financial site to explain how the Shemitah seven-year cycle would have an important and disastrous effect on the markets. The Shemitah ended in the third quarter of last year and just as we predicted, it was the worst quarter in worldwide stock markets since the last Shemitah in 2008.
Since then we have been the leader in explaining further Shemitah trends embedded in the once-every-49-year, Jubilee Year. The Jubilee Year ends on October 2nd of this year, and we expect even worse events to occur as October approaches.
Now, famous investor, Jim Rogers, has just released a new warning saying the same. He is even using biblical references to warn of a financial tsunami that could take place either this year or next. He has just said, “A $68 trillion ‘Biblical’ collapse is poised to wipe out millions of Americans.” Continue reading »
After making over $1 billion in one day last August, and warning that “the markets are overvalued to the tune of 50%,” Mark Spitznagel knows a thing or two about managing tail risk.
The outspoken practitioner of Austrian economic philosophy tells The FT, “Markets don’t have a purpose any more – they just reflect whatever central planners want them to,” confirming his fund-management partner, Nassim Taleb’s perspective that “being protected from fragility in the financial system is a necessity rather than an option.”
“This is the greatest monetary experiment in history. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable.” Continue reading »
The STOXX Europe 600 is trending below declining and bearishly positioned 26 and 40-week moving averages, and as BofAML’s Stephen Suttmeier warns, ECB quantitative easing has not reversed this bearish trend.
The 2016 set-up is similar to early 2001 and early 2008 with important resistance at 350 and important support at 300. Both 2001 and 2008 saw rebounds into bearishly positioned and falling 26/40-week MAs that formed important lower tops in May.
Over the past year, based on his increasingly more dour media appearances, billionaire Carl Icahn had been getting progressively more bearish. At first, he was mostly pessimistic about junk bonds, saying last May that “what’s even more dangerous than the actual stock market is the high yield market.” As the year progressed his pessimism become more acute and in December he said that the “meltdown in high yield is just beginning.” It culminated in February when he said on CNBC that a “day of reckoning is coming.”
Some skeptics thought that Icahn was simply trying to scare investors into selling so he could load up on risk assets at cheaper prices, however that line of thought was quickly squashed two weeks ago when Icahn announced to the shock of ever Apple fanboy that several years after his “no brainer” investment in AAPL, Icahn had officially liquidated his entire stake.
As it turns out, Icahn’s AAPL liquidation was just the appetizer of how truly bearish the legendary investor has become. Continue reading »
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos sold about a million shares of Amazon, around 1% of his stake, and netted $671 million, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission spotted by Fortune.
This is the biggest sale Bezos has ever made of the stock. He sold $534 million of shares last August, according to GeekWire.
After the sale, Bezos owns 81.91 million shares (~17% of Amazon). Continue reading »
And just like that the “no brainer” party’s over. Remember when in January 2014 Carl Icahn laid out his extensive thesis on why being long AAPL is the best investment out there? Or when a little over a year later, hoping for even more stock buybacks (even as he was decrying short term activism) he boosted his price target on AAPL to $240? All that is now over and moments ago Carl Icahn admitted that the hedge fund hotel holding AAPL stocks, which consisted of 163 hedge funds as of December 31, has one less member, and he has sold his entire Apple position.
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As BofA reported overnight when looking at the latest trading activity by its smart money clients, “BofAML clients were net sellers of US stocks for the thirteenth consecutive week last week—making it the longest uninterrupted selling streak in our data history (since 2008) as clients continued to doubt the market rally.”
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The latest shocking example of just how intertwined central banks have become in all capital markets, comes courtesy of the Bank of Japan which days ahead of a move which may see it double its ETF purchases from the current run rate of JPY3.3 trillion to JPY7 trillion or more (if Goldman is correct), is revealed to be a top 10 holder in about 90% of all Japanese stocks. Crazier still, if as Goldman predicts the BOJ doubles its purchases of ETFs, the central bank could become the No. 1 shareholder in about 40 of the Nikkei 225’s companies by the end of 2017,
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With the Dow Jones industrial average near its record high, slightly more than half of Americans (52%) say they currently have money in the stock market, matching the lowest ownership rate in Gallup’s 19-year trend. And the worst news for Yellen: “although Americans in all income groups are less likely to have stock investments now than before the Great Recession, middle-class Americans have been the most likely to flee the market”
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Eric Hunsader, founder of Nanex, has been at the vanguard of warning about the dangers and the rampant fraud that the rise of high-frequency trading (HFT) algorithims have let loose in today’s financial markets.
While he usually feels like a lone voice in a world happy to deceive itself, he was shocked to receive a $750,000 whistleblower award from the SEC for his efforts. He’s been sadly less shocked to see that since the award was publicly announced, the abuses he reported have only become more extreme and frequent. Continue reading »
And since stocks follow junk bonds….
Junk bonds started to decline in June 2014, and earlier this year threatened to implode. Contagion was spreading from the collapsing energy sector to the brick-and-mortar retail sector, telecom (Sprint), the media (iHeartMedia), and other sectors. It was really ugly out there. Continue reading »
Was it ever in doubt?
Oh just one thing…
Earnings expectations have plunged over 6% since the last time The Dow was here.
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