Sep 26

“You Can’t Compare Deutsche Bank To Lehman”

… because Deutsche is much, much worse than Lehman.

So move along, there is nothing to see here.


Germany Goes There: “You Can’t Compare Deutsche Bank To Lehman”:

“When it’s important, you have to lie,” is the now well-known mantra from European leaders when the crisis hit. So when a German politician proclaims “you can’t compare Deutsche Bank with Lehman. The bank is in a position to get out of this situation on its own,” it’s time to panic. Just a week after the 8th anniversary of Lehman’s collapse, the multi-trillion dollar derivative book of Deutsche Bank dwarfs that of Lehman… and the credit markets are starting to wake up again.

lehman-deutsche-bank

Following government exclamations that there will be no bailout for Deutsche Bank, Hans Michelbeck – from Merkel’s Christian Democrat-led bloc and a member of German lower house’s finance committee – confirms it is “unimaginable” that the German government would support Deutsche Bank AG with taxpayers’ money. Continue reading »

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Sep 26

A Crashing Deutsche Bank Scrambles To Assure Markets That It Is “Fine”

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Sep 26

Deutsche Bank Stock Plunges To All Time Low After Merkel Rules Out State Bailout; Default Risk Surges

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Sep 22

$195 Billion Asset Manager: “The Time Has Come To Leave The Dance Floor”:

When the supposed solutions to the Fed’s dilemma are merely new “problems,” you know you are approaching the cycle’s end… long-term investing is predicated on not just knowing where the happening parties are during the reflationary parts of the cycle but more importantly, knowing when the time has come to leave the dance floor. In our view, that time has already come.”

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Sep 22

Multi-Billion Tiger Cub Says “The Biggest Correction Since The 2008 Crisis” Has Begun:

Tiger cub Robert Citrone said “we believe we are in the midst of the market correction we have been expecting,” adding “It will likely persist over the next 3-4 months and be the largest correction since the 2008 crisis.”

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Sep 20

Microsoft Announces $40BN Share Buyback 1 Month After Its Largest Bond Offering Ever:

Just 1 month after completing its largest bond offering ever, Microsoft has announced the approval of an incremental $40BN share repurchase equal to roughly 9% of its outstanding shares.

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Sep 19

Deutsche Bank Extends Losses Near Record Lows: “Significantly Undercapitalzied… Even Without Bad Outcomes”

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Sep 17

The SEC’s Former Head HFT Expert Joins HFT Titan Citadel:

Last April, we commented on the most blatant (pre) revolving door we had ever seen at the SEC (and there have been many): the departure of the SEC’s head HFT investigator, Gregg Berman, who during his tenure at the agency (whose alleged purpose is to keep the “market” fair, efficient and unmanipulated) did everything in his power to draw attention away from HFTs. He did that, for example, by blaming Waddell and Reed for the May 2010 flash crash. This is what Berman, whose full title was the SEC’s “Associate Director of the Office of Analytics and Research in the Division of Trading and Markets” said in the final version of the agency’s Flash Crash report: Continue reading »

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Sep 17

Deutsche Bonds “Dropping Like A Stone” As ‘Most Dangerous Bank In The World’ Plummets:

“They are dropping like a stone,” warns one European credit strategist as signals from the bottom of Deutsche Bank’s capital structure signal a “huge increase in the potential for a coupon skip.” With DB stock tumbling towards record lows again (EUR 11 handle), Bloomberg reports, the bank’s 1.75 billion euros ($2 billion) of 6% additional Tier 1 bonds, the first notes to take losses in a crisis, are crashing… as the world’s most systemically dangerous bank faces existential problems once again.

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Sep 17

FYI.


Goldman Downgrades S&P 500, Stoxx 600 To Sell, Cites “Elevated Valuations And The Risk Of Shocks”:

After tactfully warning clients for months that staying invested in US stocks and bonds is an unacceptable risk, overnight Goldman’s Peter Oppenheimer finally changed Goldman’s official “tactical” bias, and as of this moment recommends selling not only bonds, as well as the S&P500 and Europe’s Stoxx 600 “due to elevated valuations across assets and the risk of shocks.

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Sep 12

More like a 50% plus decline.


Deutsche Warns Of 10% Decline as Market Reaches “Mania” Level

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Sep 08

Eye on Social Mood: Stock Market Bubble Will Pop, Social Mood Will Get Extremely Ugly

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Sep 06

Prepare for the coming crash. (It could already happen this month.)


bettingnew

Betting on Crazylegs in the Final Race:

Since the early 2000s, I’ve been describing a coming economic depression that will dwarf the one that began in 1929. But this is by no means guesswork or crystal ball gazing. Whenever a country (or countries) creates debt that is beyond the level that they can ever repay, an economic collapse is a near-certainty. Today, many jurisdictions, particularly, the US, EU, UK, Canada, etc. have created debt that is far beyond anything the world has ever seen. This assures us that the corresponding collapse will be of epic proportions.

Of course, I’m frequently asked, “When will it happen?” This is all but impossible to predict, but to be perfectly honest, back around 2006, I was guessing, “probably by 2012.” Although I predicted the minor crash of 2008, I felt that the bigger jolt that’s still coming would have been on our doorstep by now. Again, it’s not all that hard to predict the events if you do your homework, but predicting the timing is another matter.

However, I’ve continued to repeat my general principle that when an economic unraveling of major proportions is coming, significant events increase in frequency and severity. Continue reading »

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Sep 02

Mario-Draghi-Just-Evil

Reuters Floats Disturbing Trial Balloon: “The ECB May Be Forced To Buy Stocks”

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Aug 30

You know it’s bad, when …


Kuroda

QE, End of the Private Sector? Japanese Government Now Largest Shareholder of 474 Big Companies:

The two biggest buyers of Japan Inc. are flying blind and don’t care.

The Bank of Japan and the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) have been buying stocks to inflate the market, create some kind of “wealth effect,” and bamboozle regular Japanese into pouring once again into stocks, after many of them lost a big chunk of their savings when the prior bubble imploded without ever recovering.

In 2014, the GPIF – buckling under the pressure from the Abe administration – decided to plow about 25% (“±9%”) of its assets into Japanese stocks. With assets at the time of still about $1.4 trillion, 25% would amount to about $350 billion. So the fund has been buying a lot! And it has been a disaster! [Read…  Japan Mega-Pension Fund Dives into Stocks, Foreign Assets, Loses Shirt. People Not Amused] Continue reading »

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Aug 26

Japanese Government Squanders Pension Funds On Failed Stocks As Losses Reach $130 Billion In Past Year:

Nearly two years ago we wrote about how the largest pension fund in the world had been hijacked by political hacks in what would be a futile effort to prop up stocks in the “first failed Keynesian state, Japan.”  Today’s announcement of $52 billion of losses in 2Q 16 kind of confirms our point.

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Aug 24

marc-faber1

Marc Faber Rings the Alarm Bell, Predicts a 50% Near Term Correction in Stocks:

Volatility is the name of the game. Stocks are acting up, but standing strong. Oil is propelling higher and the US dollar is falling. Turmoil around the world has never been higher and an ominous shadow is lurking in the background, ready to strike.

The situation that we now face is ultimately going to end in a collapse of epic proportion. The financial world is now a ticking bomb that is just waiting to explode – I know this, you know this and even if the masses don’t, they can feel it in their bones. Continue reading »

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Aug 21

Jeffrey Snider: All Signs Point To Systemic Reset:

“… what’s happened in stocks is more a myth than actual reality. Investors in stocks are buying at ridiculous valuations based on the premise that the Fed can create a recovery through liquidity. And what 2014 and 2015 show us is that this simply wasn’t true! …the longer the earnings recession lingers, the higher the risk that stock investors will realize that they’ve been following the wrong story all along!”

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Aug 19

Paul Tudor Jones Emerges As Latest Mega Bear With Record Surge In S&P Puts:

It appears that Paul Tudor Jones is even more bearish than George Soros, based on the surge in the fund’s S&P puts, which rose from $490 million notional to $1.7 billion notional, a nearly four-fold increase, and making it the biggest such position in the fund’s history. In fact, as of this moment, PTJ’s gross put exposure amounts to 37% of his entire disclosed long equity exposure of just over $4.7 billion.

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Aug 18

Prison Stock Prices Collapse After Feds Announce End to Private Prison Use

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Aug 18

Carl Icahn Turns Apocalyptic: “I Am More Hedged Than Ever, A Day Of Reckoning Is Coming”:

I have hedges on, I’m more hedged than I ever was. [The market] is way overvalued at 20 times the S&P and I’ll tell you why: a lot of it is a result of zero interest rates. That’s going to be hurtThere’s going to be a day of reckoning here.  I’ve seen it many times in my life.  When things look good, they look great.  You go into the sky.  But that’s when you have to really pull down and really stop buying.”

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Aug 18

Continue to prepare for collapse.

99% of the people will get totally destroyed financially.

“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”
-Benjamin Franklin


Aug 13, 2016

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The Global Financial System Is Here - Collapse

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Aug 16

Related info:

Warren Buffett Exits Entire Credit Default Swap Exposure, As Citi’s Appetite For Derivative Destruction Surges

SUPER SHEMITAH: Elite’s Jubilee Year Plan To Crash World Economy By October 2016 (Video)


George Soros As The Fighting Uruk-hai With Jacob Rothschild As Saruman

Billionaire Soros doubles bet against US stocks:

Soros Fund Management has increased its bearish bet against US companies on the S&P 500 index. Its billionaire owner will make money if the index collapses.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 is an American stock market index based on market capitalization of 500 large US companies having common stock listed on the New York Stock Exchange or on NASDAQ.

The 86-year-old investor’s fund has reported it had arranged ‘put’ options on roughly 4 million shares as of June 30. This is up from 2.1 million shares as of March 31. Continue reading »

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Aug 15

micex-record-high

Russian Stocks Soar To Record Highs – Up 60% Since White House “Sell” Order:

Russia’s MICEX stock index rallied to all-time record highs today. This is likely very disconcerting for The White House as since the March 2014 lows when they issued the following statement: “If I were you, I wouldn’t invest in Russian equities right now,” Russian stocks are up 60% – tripling the 19% gains in the S&P off those lowsContinue reading »

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Aug 12

“The Final Melt Up”, “A Blow Off Top”: Money Floods In As Investors Turn Euphoric At Triple Record High:

In a historic trifecta, yesterday for the first time this century, all three US indexes posted concurrent record highs. The last time this had happened was on December 31, 1999.

20160811_EOD16

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Aug 08

smartest teaser

“Sell Everything”… But Why: What Has The Smartest Investors So Spooked?

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Aug 05

Carl Icahn Has Never Been More Short The Market, Is Pressing For A Crash:

So there was renewed speculation if Icahn had given up on his record bearish bet. So when overnight IEP released its latest 10-Q, we were eager to find out if Carl had unwound his record short, or perhaps, added more to it. What we found is that  one quarter after having a net short position of -149%, as of June 30, Icahn’s net position was once again -149%, or in other words, he has once again never been shorter the market.

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Aug 05

Stocks Soar To Record Highs Thanks To Biggest Seasonal Jobs Adjustment In A Decade

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Aug 04

“Mystery” Buyer Revealed: Swiss National Bank’s US Stock Holdings Rose 50% In First Half, To Record $62BN:

In the second quarter, the Swiss National Bank added $7.3 billion to its US equity portfolio, and according to its just filed 13-F, is now long a record $61.8 billion in US stocks, up from $54.5 billion a month ago. In fact, rising from $41.3 billion in total US stock holdings as of December 2015, this means that the Swiss central bank increased its total US holdings by a record 50% in the first half of 2016.

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Aug 04

Factory Orders Plunge For 20th Month In A Row – Longest Streak In US History:

Despite a small beat in MoM data (-1.5% vs -1.9% exp), US factory orders plunged 5.6% YoY – the worst drop since September 2015. This extends the period of annual contraction to 20 months – a record streak of declines in US history and one which has always, without exception, coincided with recession…

The big drop was driven by a plunge in non-defense aircraft and parts… (even with a surge in car orders)

factory orders collapse

It’s probably nothing though…

factory orders collapse - stocks

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