* * *
“We do not expect the agreement on Feb. 16 between oil ministers from Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela to freeze oil output.”
Over the past week, Poland’s relations with Europe have gone from cordial to abysmal, when first Poland’s new Eurosceptic government compared the EU and Merkel to Nazis, with Polish weekly Wprost releasing the following cover saying “they want to supervise Poland again”…
… only for Brussels to retaliate and launch an “unprecedented” review of Polish media laws, a move which Poland angrily responded is far beyond the EU’s domain.
Well, as so often happens, whenever there is a political spat in Europe, the rating agencies are quickly involved (thing S&P and Moody’s downgrades and upgrades of Greece depending on how well the vassal nation is “behaving”), and moments ago S&P downgraded Poland from A- to BBB+ outlook negative, precisely due to Poland’s new media law which has been the topic of so much consternation over the past week.
Having told the world that it will borrow billions (and cut capex) to “return all free cash to investors,” it appears ratings agency S&P just needed to remind McDonalds that Shareholder-friendly releveraging no longer comes for free…
*S&P LWRS MCDONALD’S RTG TO ‘BBB+’ ON SHR BUYBACK PLANS
Who could have seen that coming?
Having watched the credit markets grow more and more weary of the major US financials, it should not be total surprise that ratings agency S&P just put all the majors on watch for a rating downgrade:
*JPMORGAN, CITIGROUP, GOLDMAN SACHS, STATE STREET CORP, MORGAN STANLEY MAY BE CUT BY S&P
Despite all the talking heads proclamations on higher rates and net interest margins and ‘strongest balance sheets’ ever, S&P obviously sees something more worrisome looming. This comes just hours after Moody’s put Bank of Nova Scotia on review also (blaming the move on concerns over increased risk appetite).
– S&P Dares To Go There: Downgrades European Union To Negative Outlook (ZeroHedge, Aug 3, 2015):
Just a few short years after they dared to downgrade the US, S&P has unleashed their worst on Europe:
- *EUROPEAN UNION OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEGATIVE FROM STABLE BY S&P
- *S&P: EU TO AA+/NEGATIVE FROM AA+/STABLE – FOREIGN CURRENCY LT
We are sure this will be met by S&P office raids throughout Europe, litigation over somethhing or other, and denials broadly from any and every unelected member of EU’s elite… because “when it’s serious you have to lie.”
As Bloomberg reports,
– S&P Downgrades Greece, Suggests Worst Case Scenario With Bank Runs And “Capital Controls”: Full Report (ZeroHedge, Feb 6, 2015):
And the hits keep coming. On the heels of a demand for repayment of ECB’s profits from GGB bond gains and to extend the T-Bill limit to give the nation time to negotiate with EU leaders (i.e. a Bridge Loan) which Jeroen Dijsselbloem already dismissed earlier in the day, S&P just piled on…
- GREECE RATINGS CUT TO B- FROM B BY S&P; MAY BE CUT FURTHER
This downgrade comes just 5 months after upgrading Greece because “risks to fiscal consolidation in Greece have abated.” EURUSD is not moving much (having already cratered after US payrolls) but Greek stock ETFs are sliding once again.
– S&P Downgrades Numerous European Banks, Warns Deutsche Bank May Be Next (ZeroHedge, Feb 3, 2015):
Just hours after apparently settling its suit with the USA (not at all retaliation for downgrading them), S&P has taken the big red marker out on a slew of European banks:
- Downgrades: Credit Suisse, Barclays, Lloyds, Bank of Scotland, RBS, HSBC, and Ulster Bank
- On Watch Negative: Raiffeisen Zentralbank, MBank, Unicredit, Commerzbank, and Deutsche Bank
The driver of the shift in perspective is the apparent removal of the ‘bailout put’, as the prospect of “extraordinary government support” appeared less likely under recently passed bail-in legislation.
– S&P Settles DOJ Lawsuit For $1.5 Billion; Agrees Not To Accuse Government Of Retaliation For US Downgrade (ZeroHedge, Feb 3, 2015):
As had been widely rumored in the past two weeks, and as the WSJ reported overnight, moments ago McGraw Hill, parent of disgraced rating agency S&P, entered into a $1.5 billion settlement to fully resolve the DOJ lawsuit regarding S&P ratings on RMBS and CDOs. As the WSJ reported overnight, In the “span of about 30 hours, the Justice Department lowered its asking price and backed off demands that S&P admit to violating laws when it issued rosy grades on risky mortgage deals, the people said.” But the bottom line: ‘S&P agreed to … withdraw its assertion that the Justice Department lawsuit was political retaliation for the ratings firm’s 2011 downgrade.”
– Russia Slams S&P Downgrade For “Excessive Pessimism” (ZeroHedge, Jan 26, 2015):
Well that didn’t take long. Russian Finance Minister Siluanov has responded to S&P’s “junk” downgrade of The Russian Federation:
- *SILUANOV: S&P DOWNGRADE OF RUSSIA SHOWS ‘EXCESSIVE PESSIMISM’
- *SILUANOV: NO REASON TO EXPECT `MASS’ DEBT REDEMPTION REQUESTS
Adding in his statement that he “sees no reason to dramatize” the situation, Siluanov adds that the cut should not have any serious effect on Russia’s capital markets. We assume by “dramatize,” he means – they wil not be ‘visiting’ the local ratings agencies offices for a chat anytime soon.
H/t reader squodgy:
“If a an IMF/Fed puppet ratings agency classes one as junk….it must be good news.”
– S&P downgrades Russia’s sovereign credit rating to below investment grade (CNBC, Jan 26, 2015):
Standard & Poor’s on Monday downgraded Russia’s sovereign credit rating to below investment grade, as the country’s economy continues to weaken.
S&P slashed Russia’s sovereign credit rating to BB+ from BBB- and said the outlook is negative, reflecting its view that Russia’s monetary policy flexibility could diminish further.
This is the first time in more than 10 years that Russian sovereign debt has been rated below investment grade, in what some call “junk” territory.
Deceiving and lying to the American people is OK:
– Welcome to the Recovery (New York Times, by Timothy Geithner, August 2, 2010)
– Downgrading The US Will Cost S&P $1.5 Billion (ZeroHedge, Jan 20, 2015):
Remember when S&P forgot for a second that it lives in a world of pretend free speech, and where telling the truth would promptly result in a lawsuit by none other than the US government under false pretenses (and from which Buffett darling Moody’s was excluded) after it downgraded the US from AAA to AA+ in the summer of 2011? A downgrade which as Bloomberg previously reported led to this exchange with then Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner: “S&P’s conduct would be looked at very carefully,” Geithner told McGraw according to the filing. “Such behavior would not occur, he said, without a response from the government.”
Well, S&P will never make the same mistake again, because according to Reuters, it will cost it $1.5 billion to settle with the government and put the whole “downgrade” episode in the past.
- S&P SAID IN SETTLEMNT TALKS WITH WITH DOJ,STATES: RTRS
- S&P SAID IN SETTLEMNT TALKS FOR $1.5B: REUTERS
- SEC SAID TO BAN S&P FROM RATING PART OF CMBS MARKET FOR A YEAR
- S&P SETTLEMENT WITH SEC SAID TO INCLUDE $60 MILLION FINE
- S&P SETTLEMENT ON CMBS SAID TO BE ANNOUNCED AS SOON AS TOMORROW
And let that be a lesson to anyone else who thinks the First Amendment is anything but window dressing.
– Italy’s credit rating lowered by S&P (The Local, Dec 6, 2014):
Standard & Poor’s on Friday lowered Italy’s credit rating by one notch on concerns about weak growth and increasing debt while maintaining a stable outlook.
S&P dropped Italy’s long and short-term sovereign credit rating to ‘BBB-/A-3’ from ‘BBB/A-2’, the ratings agency said in a statement.
– Here We Go Again: Greece Will Be In Default Within 15 Months, S&P Warns (ZeroHedge, Oct 4, 2014):
Remember Greece: the country that in 2010 launched Europe’s sovereign solvency crisis and the ECB’s own helpless attempts at intervention, which later was “saved”, only to default shortly thereafter (but without triggering CDS as that would end the Eurozone’s amusing monetary experiment and collapse the Deutsche Bank $100 trillion house of derivative cards), which later was again “saved” when every single global central bank made sure Greek bonds became the only yield-generating securities in the world? Well, the country which at last count was doing ok, is about to not be ok. Because according to none other than S&P, at some point over the next 15 months, Greek debt is about to be in default when the country is no longer able to cover its financing needs. In other words, back to square one.
– Standard & Poor’s Warns on Germany Triggering the Next Debt Crisis, Investors Would Lose their Shirts (Wolf Street, Sep 24, 2014):
A true debacle happened. Just when we thought the euro was safe, that ECB President Mario Draghi had single-handedly duct-taped the Eurozone back together in the summer of 2012 with his magic words, “whatever it takes.” Markets assumed that they were backed by the ECB’s printing press, and they loved their assumption. Spanish, Italian, even highly dubious Greek debt, some of it with a fresh haircut, soared. And hedge funds and banks gorged on it and loved it. The debt crisis was over! Stocks soared even more. Money was being made.
So bank bailouts continued, and the Eurozone recession proved to be a nasty long-term affair, but no problem, everything seemed to be guaranteed by the ECB. Debt-sinner countries, as Germans like to call them, could suddenly borrow for nearly free, and neither deficits nor debts mattered to financial markets.
But now comes ratings agency Standard & Poor’s and douses our illusions, because that’s all they were, with a bucket of ice water. The soaring popularity and electoral successes of Germany’s anti-euro party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), could push Chancellor Angela Merkel and her party, the conservative CDU, to take a harder line against bailouts, hopes of QE, and all manner of other ECB miracles that financial markets had been counting on. And it could spook them. And the nearly free money could suddenly dry up. So S&P warned:
– The Cost Of Downgrading The US: $1 Billion (ZeroHedge, July 16, 2014):
Back in the summer of 2011 during the debt ceiling debacle, S&P did the unthinkable: it dared to speak the truth when it downgraded the US from its pristine AAA rating, setting off a stock market selloff and paradoxically sending bonds to record low yields. This resulted in a vindictive Tim Geithner promptly warning the Chairman of McGraw-Hill the US would retaliate (which it did), the termination of then CEO Devan Sharma (and his replacement with the all too friendly COO of Citibank), and most importantly, a still ongoing legal fight in which the DOJ sued S&P (and only S&P, not Moody’s, not Fitch) allegedly for rating improprieties during the first housing bubble, but even 5 year olds knew it was just to teach S&P a lesson.
Today we learn just what the cost is for anyone who dares to downgrade the US. The answer: $1,000,000,000. That is the amount that S&P has decided it will agree to pay in a settlement with the DOJ to put all this “truthiness” unpleasantness behind it.
Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services decided to settle a pending lawsuit with the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) and is open to paying about $1 billion to settle it, the Wall Street Journal reported citing people familiar with the matter.
– Furious Russia, Downgraded To Just Above Junk By S&P, Proposes “Scorched Earth” Retaliation Against NATO Countries (ZeroHedge, April 25, 2014):
Cyprus and Russia – what’s the difference (aside from the fact that the former was a money laundering offshore center of the latter until last year of course)?
If you said one is a lackey to statist, selfish banker interests, and after having its economy thoroughly destroyed by the great doomed European sociopolitical (and pathological) experiment, came crawling back to its Eurozone masters, while the other couldn’t care one bit about Pax Petrodollariana and the global central bank cabal, you are right. In which case it will also be clear why a few hours ago that joke of a rating agency, Standard & Poor’s, which also earlier announced it was “affirming” France at an AA rating making it very clear it will no longer accept being sued for telling the truth and downgrading sovereigns or otherwise have its offices abroad raided, not only upgraded Cyprus from B- to B (please deposits your funds in Cyprus banks now: they are safe, S&P promises), but – far more importantly – delivered a political message to the Kremlin, and downgraded Russia from BBB to BBB-, one short notch away from junk status. This was the first downgrade of Russia by S&P since December 2008.
– S&P Brings Out The Big Policy Guns – Downgrades Russia To Outlook Negative (ZeroHedge, March 20, 2014):
S&P, still deep in the mire of a legal battle with the US government, has decided now is an opportune time to cut the ratings outlook on Russia:
- *RUSSIAN FEDERATION OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE FROM STABLE BY S&P
- *S&P SEES EU-U.S. IMPOSING FURTHER SANCTIONS
Russia remains a BBB credit (but with the outlook shift remains open to a downgrade with 24 months). S&P has cut 2014 GDP forecast to 1.2% and 2015 to 2.2%. Of course, we are sure, this would have nothing to do with currying favors with the US government (who threatened them when they downgraded the USA). Full report below.
S&P Reduces Russian Federation outlook to Negative from Stable.
Below is the full report:
– Ukraine May Or May Not Have A Deal As S&P Warns Of Sovereign Default (ZeroHedge, Feb 21, 2014):
Several hours ago, and a day after the latest truce lasted about a few minutes before the the shooting returned and resulted in the bloodiest day of Ukraine’s protests so far, there was hope that the situation in Ukraine may finally be getting resolved, when Ukraine’s President Viktor Yanukovich announced plans for early elections in a series of concessions to his pro-European opponents. As Reuters reported earlier, Russian-backed Yanukovich, under pressure to quit from mass demonstrations in central Kiev, promised a national unity government and constitutional change to reduce his powers, as well as the presidential polls. He made the announcement in a statement on the presidential website without waiting for a signed agreement with opposition leaders after at least 77 people were killed in the worst violence since Ukraine became independent 22 years ago. This comes in the aftermath of S&P’s announcement overnight that the Ukraine will default in absence of favorable changes.