Aug 04

Factory Orders Plunge For 20th Month In A Row – Longest Streak In US History:

Despite a small beat in MoM data (-1.5% vs -1.9% exp), US factory orders plunged 5.6% YoY – the worst drop since September 2015. This extends the period of annual contraction to 20 months – a record streak of declines in US history and one which has always, without exception, coincided with recession…

The big drop was driven by a plunge in non-defense aircraft and parts… (even with a surge in car orders)

factory orders collapse

It’s probably nothing though…

factory orders collapse - stocks

Tags: , , , , ,

Jun 27

S&P 500 Plunges Below 2,000 Level, Biggest Drop Since August Crash

* * *

PayPal: Donate in USD
PayPal: Donate in EUR
PayPal: Donate in GBP

Tags: , , , , ,

Jun 22

Tuesday Humor: What’s Wrong With This Chart?:

Sorry but seriously!!



The average forward price-earnings ratio for the Energy sector has been 15.8x.

At the current 97x forward P/E, S&P Energy stocks trade 20 standard deviations rich to history!!

* * *

PayPal: Donate in USD
PayPal: Donate in EUR
PayPal: Donate in GBP

Tags: , , , , ,

Mar 15


S&P Loses Key Technical Support As Bears Battered Brazil & Black-Gold

* * *

PayPal: Donate in USD
PayPal: Donate in EUR
PayPal: Donate in GBP

Tags: , , , , ,

Jan 15

S&P 500 Worst Start To A Year ... EVER


Tags: , , , ,

Aug 24

Panic!! All Major US Equity Indices Halted (ZeroHedge, Aug 24, 2015):


Nasdaq was the first to be halted at 0758ET.

The Dow is now down 850 points from Friday’s close and halted…

The S&P 500 Futures is halted for the first time in history.

Continue reading »

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Aug 21

S&P 500 Breaks Below 2,000, Crashes Into Red Year-Over-Year (ZeroHedge, Aug 21, 2015):

The S&P 500 index has broken below the crucial psychological 2,000 level for the first time since late January. This is the biggest collapse in stocks since June 2013 (bigger than October’s plunge – which was only rescued by Bullard’s threat of QE4). What is perhaps most worrisome for the trend-followers – the S&P is now down year-over-year for the first time since May 2012… which once again brought The Fed out with moar QE.

The S&P 500 has broken below the crucial 2,000 level…


And The S&P 500 is now down YoY for the first time since May 2012… Continue reading »

Tags: , , ,

Aug 07


– S&P 500 Tumbles Into Red For 2015, Breaks Below Key Technical Support (ZeroHedge, Aug 7, 2015):

The S&P 500, having broken below its 200-day moving average again, has joined The Dow Transports, Dow Industrials, and Russell 2000 (small caps) in negative territory year-to-date


Tags: , , , , ,

Aug 03

30Y Treasury Yield Plunges To 3-Month Lows As S&P Breaks Key Technical Support (ZeroHedge, Aug 3, 2015):

The carnage is contagious. The S&P 500 just broke down below its 50- and 100-day moving averages unable to hold the ubiquitous pre-EU-close ramp highs. Treasury yields have plunged since the weak spending and ISM data with the 5Y breaking below its 200-day moving average and 30Y yields testing 3-month lows


Tags: , , , , , , ,

Apr 18

For your entertainment.

When will the “market” crash?

Directly after Lord Rothschild has given orders to press the sell button.


This Technical Signaled The Last Two Market Crashes And It Just Happened (ZeroHedge, April 17, 2015):

So the fundamental case for a 20 year bull run as BMO is calling for and  certainly many other banks seem to be onboard with that is not looking great YTD.  In fact, most perma bulls have shy’d away from even mentioning fundamentals other than to say that generally they aren’t looking great but don’t worry the Fed is still engaged.   And so I feel its a worthwhile exercise to have a look at the technicals.  Thing about the technicals is that you can cherry pick any baseline point to really make any case, good or bad.  But if we take a look at a time period that encompasses several cycles we negate our ability to cherry pick the baseline and we can be much more confident in our overall analysis. Continue reading »

Tags: , , , , ,

Mar 16

11 Economic Crashes That Are Happening RIGHT NOW

Guess What Happened The Last Two Times The S&P 500 Was Up More Than 200% In Six Years? (Economic Collapse, March 11, 2015):

Just a few days ago, the bull market for the S&P 500 turned six years old.  This six year period of time has been great for investors, but what comes next?  On March 9th, 2009 the S&P 500 hit a low of 676.53.  Since that day, it has risen more than 200 percent.  As you will see below, there are only two other times within the last 100 years when the S&P 500 performed this well over a six year time frame.  In both instances, the end result was utter disaster. And as you take in this information, I want you to keep in mind what I said in my previous article entitled “7 Signs That A Stock Market Peak Is Happening Right Now“.  What we are witnessing at this moment is classic “peaking behavior”, and there is a long way to go down from here.  So if historical patterns hold up, those with lots of money in the stock market could soon be in for a whole lot of trouble. Continue reading »

Tags: , , ,

Jan 30


– January Jitters Jolt Stocks – S&P Loses Key 2,000 Level; Bonds’ Best Month Since June 2010 (ZeroHedge, Jan 30, 2015):

Tags: , , , , , ,

Jan 14

S&P Down 5% From Highs, Dow Drops Almost 700 Points In 27 Hours (ZeroHedge, Jan 14, 2015):

Things are escalating… Energy credit markets are pushing back towards record high spreads, copper is pushing back to the overnight lows and gold and silver are flat. US equity markets are the big movers with The Dow down well over 300 points today (and nearly 700 points in the last 27 hours) and the S&P now down almost 5% from its highs. Treasury yields are 8-10bps lower on the day with 30Y yields at record lows and 10Y close.

Tags: , , , ,

Jan 06

Worst Start To A Year Ever, Stocks Down 5 Days In A Row

Worst Start To A Year Ever, Stocks Down 5 Days In A Row (Zerohedge, Jan 6, 2015):

How many are feeling after the worst 3-day start to a year EVER…

Market internals triggered a 2nd Hindenburg Omen…

Hindenburg Omen

The S&P 500 is down 5 days in a row – the first time since Sept 2013… with the biggest 5-day decline since Jim Bullard saved the world… (finding support at its 100DMA for now)

Tags: , , , , ,

Dec 26

Blackrock Stunner: S&P 500 Profits Are 86% Higher Than They Would Be Without Accounting Fudges (Zerohedge, Dec 26,  2014):

“It becomes tempting to take on too much leverage, use financial wizardry to reward shareholders or even stretch accounting principles. S&P 500 profits are 86% higher than they would be if accounting standards of the national accounts were used, Pelham Smithers Associates notes. And the gap between the two measures is widening, the research firm finds.” – Blackrock

Tags: , , , , ,

Oct 23

WTI Crude Slides Below $81 (ZeroHedge, Oct 22, 2014):

It appears some of the ‘fundamental’ legs of the face-ripping ramp in stocks are fading. Broken Markets – nope; Fed Speakers – nope (blackout period); Crude rising – nope (WTI back under $81)


Why it matters… Continue reading »

Tags: , , , ,

Oct 18

And The Market Breaks Again… (ZeroHedge, Oct 17, 2014)

Tags: , , ,

Oct 16

A Stunned Wall Street Reacts To Today’s Epic Move (ZeroHedge, Oct 15, 2014):

The first report summarizing today’s stunning market action comes from FBN’s Jeremy Klein, who is out with this blurb:

In the first 15 minutes of trading the S&P 500 E-Minis traded below the S&P 500 cash index despite a fair basis, according to Bloomberg, of -6.72.  This is unheard of and something I have never witnessed in my near fourteen year career on the Street.  I can only conclude that many large institutions threw in the towel on the Open in wake of the dislocations in not only stocks but also treasuries.  Continue reading »

Tags: , , , , ,

Oct 11


Did Today’s “Satan Signal” In S&P Futures Give The ‘All-Clear’ For Selling To Begin? (ZeroHedge, Oct 9, 2014):

Even Bob Pisani knows by now that the European Close seems to create a trend-reversal moment intraday that few machines (and even fewer humans) are willing to fight. Whether this is remnants of short-term cycles found due to POMO or just a drop in liquidity is unclear; but what is clear, it happens, and all too regularly… except today. After a notably weak start to the day, the machines were just getting revved up for the 1130ET reversal to kick in and lift the market back to VWAP when a curious thing happened… “someone” canceled-and-replaced orders for 666 contracts 26 times in the 1130ET to 1200ET period… and selling accelerated lower, no reversal, to close at the lows on heavy volume.

We are sure this is nothing… just pure coincidence that on the 4th most active trading day in history and on following a huge surge day in stocks not trusted by any other asset class, someone would send 26 separate times in a few minutes orders for 666 contracts.

Only a tin-foil-hat-wearing digital dickweed would see anything odd about that: for everyone else this is merely yet another market anomaly that is best left unmentioned. Continue reading »

Tags: , , , ,

Sep 19


The Dow And S&P 500 Soar To Irrational Heights While The Ultra-Wealthy Rush To Buy Gold Bars (Economic Collapse, Sep 18, 2014):

Did you know that the number of gold bars being purchased by ultra-wealthy individuals has increased by 243 percent so far this year?  If stocks are just going to keep soaring, why are they doing this?  On Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 both closed at record highs once again.  It is a party that never seems to end, and there are a lot of really happy people on Wall Street these days.  But those that are discerning realize that we witnessed the exact same kind of bubble behavior during the dotcom boom and during the run up to the last financial crash in 2007.  The irrational exuberance that we are witnessing right now cannot go on forever.  And the bigger that this bubble gets, the more painful that it is going to be when it finally bursts.  Those that get out at the peaks of the market are the ones that usually end up making lots of money.  Those that ride stocks all the way up and all the way down are the ones that usually end up getting totally wiped out. Continue reading »

Tags: , , , ,

Sep 05

Obviously Not A Bubble (ZeroHedge, Sep 4, 2014):

Just two charts…

Via John Hussman… no bubble, no consequences…


and Via NewEdge’s Brad Wishak… realized volatility has only been lower once since 2006… Continue reading »

Tags: , , ,

Aug 31

It’s Settled: Central Banks Trade S&P500 Futures (ZeroHedge, Aug 30, 2014):

Based on the unprecedented collapse in trading volumes of cash products over the past 6 years, one thing has become clear: retail, and increasingly, institutional investors and traders are gone, probably for ever and certainly until the Fed’s market-distorting central planning ends. However, one entity appears to have taken the place of conventional equity traders: central banks.

Courtesy of an observation by Nanex’s Eric Hunsader, we now know, with certainty and beyond merely speculation by tinfoil fringe blogs, that central banks around the world trade (and by “trade” we mean buy) S&P 500 futures such as the E-mini, in both futures and option form, as well as full size, and micro versions, in addition to the well-known central bank trading in Interest Rates, TSY and FX products. Continue reading »

Tags: , , , , ,

Apr 14

From the article:

“Because one can just as easily make the case that as the global financial house of cards, teetering since the great financial crisis of 2008, and upright only thanks to the explicit “wealth effect” support of the final backstop – the world’s money printers – any protracted downward move which implicitly crushes the faith in the monetary religion, and crushes the uber-leveraged smart money community, will make the “drawdown” in both momo and S&P500 stocks in March 2000 seem like a pleasant walk in the part compared to what may be coming.”

“Shadows Of March 2000” – Goldman On The Great Momo Crash Of 2014 (Zerohedge, April 14, 2014):

Behold the great momo basket which after being the source of so much joy for momentum chasers over the past year, has mutated into the source of so much sorrow over the past two weeks.

Momo basket

We have bad news for hedge funds who, like Hugh Hendry in December of last year, threw fundamentals and caution to the wind and, with great reservations, jumped into this momo bandwagon in which mere buying beget more buying until nobody knew why anyone bought in the first place… and then everything crashed, leading to the worst day for hedge funds in a decade: according to Goldman’s David Kostin, whose job is to be a cheerleader for the intangible “wealth effect” leading to all too tangible Goldman bonuses: “The stock market will likely recover during the next few months… but not momentum stocks.”

Behold the (not so) great Momo crash of 2014:

SPX momo GS

First the bad news: according to Goldman not only will the momo stocks not rebound to previous highs and resume their leadership role, but clients increasingly are wondering if this is the second coming of the dot com bubble burst.

Conversations we are having with clients: Momentum reversal and the shadow of 2000

Our client discussions this week focused on two topics: Momentum reversal and comparisons between today and March 2000. Two questions dominated: “When will the reversal end?” and “Will the sell-off in momentum stocks drive a market-wide price decline as occurred in 2000?”

During the past month, momentum has plunged by 7%, a 10th percentile ranking of all monthly momentum returns since 1980. We define “momentum” as the relative performance of the best vs. worst performing S&P 500 stocks during the prior 12 months. We identified 46 similar distinct 10th percentile “drawdowns” with an average one-month return of -8% and a cumulative -10% return during six months.

Historical experience suggests the S&P 500, but not momentum, will likely recover during the next few months. Following the drawdowns, S&P 500 posted a 6-month return averaging +5% and delivered a positive return 70% of the time. Momentum declined by a further 4% on average, and 60% of the time the stocks posted a negative return.

Analysis of historical trading patterns around momentum drawdowns shows: (a) roughly 70% of the reversal is behind us following a 7% unwind during the last month; (b) an additional 3% downside exists to the momentum reversal during the next three months if the current episode follows the average historical experience; (c) if the pattern followed the path of a 25th percentile event a further 7% momentum downside would occur, or about double the reversal that has taken place so far; and (d) whenever the drawdown ends, momentum typically does NOT resume leadership. The best performing stocks during the 12 months leading up to the start of the drawdown do not subsequently outperform (see Exhibit 2).

MOMO performance after momo crash_0

So what are the good news? Well, Goldman is bullish on the non-MOMO stocks, which it sees as rising during the next 6 months by, if history is any precedent, 5%. Of course, the market merely regaining its all time highs by October will hardly please the investor community which is used to 20%+ return year after year. After all someone must benefit from the Fed’s ludicrous actions.

S&P 500 Index performance during 46 momentum reversals since 1980 suggests the broad market will likely rise steadily during the next six months by an average of 5%. Based on a current S&P 500 index level of 1815, a 5% rise would lift the index to just above 1900 which is our year-end 2014 forecast. A 25th percentile trajectory implies a flat equity market during the next six months while tracking at the 75th percentile would see S&P 500 climb by 15% to 2090 by the end of 3Q (see Exhibit 3).

S&P performance after momo crash

But most interesting is Goldman’s attempt to deny that this is the second coming of March 2000:

One historical momentum drawdown has come up repeatedly in recent conversations with clients: March 2000. The current sell-off in high growth and high valuation stocks, with a concentration in technology subsectors, has some similarities to the popping of the tech bubble in 2000.

Veteran investors will recall S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq peaked in March 2000. The indices eventually fell by 50% and 75%, respectively. It took the S&P 500 seven years to recover and establish a new high but Nasdaq still remains 25% below its all-time peak reached 14 years ago.

We believe the differences between 2000 and today are more important than the similarities and the recent momentum drawdown is unlikely to
precipitate a more extensive fall in share prices:

  • Recent returns are less dramatic. Although the trailing 12-month returns are similar (22% today versus 18% in 2000), the trailing 3-year and 5-year returns are much lower (51% vs. 107% and 161% vs. 227%, respectively).
  • Valuation is not nearly as stretched. S&P 500 currently trades at a forward P/E of 16x compared with 25x at the peak in 2000. The price/book ratio is 2.7x versus 6.Xx. The EV/sales is currently 1.8x compared with 2.7x in 2000.
  • More balanced market. The reason it is called the “Tech Bubble” is that 14% of the earnings of the S&P 500 came from Tech in 2000 but it accounted for 33% of the equity cap of the index. Today Tech contributes 19% of both earnings and market cap. Top five stocks in 2000 were 18% vs. 11% today.
  • Earnings growth expectations are far less aggressive. Bottom-up 2014 consensus EPS growth currently equals 9%, close to our top-down forecast of 8%. In 2000, consensus expected EPS growth equaled 17%.
  • Interest rates are dramatically lower. 3-month Treasury yields were 5.9% in 2000 vs. 0.05% today while ten-year yields were 6.0% vs. 2.7% today. The yield curve was inverted by 47 bp. Today the slope equals +229 bp.
  • Less new issuance. During 1Q 2000, 115 IPOs were completed for proceeds of $18 billion. In 1Q 2014, 63 completed deals raised $11 billion.

All great points, yet one thing is conspicuously missing and perhaps Goldman can clarify:

  • how much debt as a percentage of global GDP was held by the world’s major central banks then and now, and
  • how much consolidated global leverage, including shadow banking in both the US and China, as well as how many hundreds of trillions of derivatives notional outstanding existed then… and now

Because one can just as easily make the case that as the global financial house of cards, teetering since the great financial crisis of 2008, and upright only thanks to the explicit “wealth effect” support of the final backstop – the world’s money printers – any protracted downward move which implicitly crushes the faith in the monetary religion, and crushes the uber-leveraged smart money community, will make the “drawdown” in both momo and S&P500 stocks in March 2000 seem like a pleasant walk in the part compared to what may be coming.

Tags: , , , , ,

Apr 04

Peak Bubble 2.0: The Market Is Now Exactly As Overvalued As It Was At The Last Bubble Peak (Zerohedge, April 4, 2014):

According to this chart from JPM the market’s forward P/E ratio now is precisely 15.2x. What was it at precisely the last bubble peak on October 9, 2007? 15.2x.

Everyone knows what happened next.


Source: JPM

Tags: , , ,

Mar 31

Check out these 8 new ‘record highs’. #6 is a real shocker. (Sovereign Man, March 31, 2014):

There’s nothing like a nice cup of reality first thing on Monday morning.

If you’ve been a reader for any length of time, you know one of the things I periodically do is scan headlines for phrases like “record high” or “all time high”.

The results can often given an interesting big picture perspective of what’s happening in the world. Continue reading »

Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

Mar 21

James Montier: “The Market Is Overvalued By 50%-70%” And “Nothing At All” Is Attractively Valued (ZeroHedge, March 21, 2014):

A month ago we presented a must read interview by Swiss Finanz und Wirtschaft with respected value investor Howard Marks, in which, when explaining the motives driving rational investing he summarized simply, “in the end, the devil always wins.” Today, we are happy to bring our readers the following interview with one of our favorite strategists, GMO’s James Montier, in which true to form, Montier packs no punches, and says that the market is now overvalued by 50% to 70%, adding that there is “nothing at all” that has an attractive valuation, and that he sees a “hideous opportunity set.”

Still, despite the clear bubble in stocks, he is unsure what to do since financial repression could last very long with “the average length of periods of financial repression in history is 22 years. We’ve only had five years so far.” Finally on the topic of Japan and Abenomics, “for me, there is too much hope and expectation embedded in Abe, not unlike Obama in 2009: There was so much hope projected into Obama that he could only disappoint.” He did, well… everyone but the 0.001% billionaires. Then again in a world in which there is only hope left, what happens when that too is removed?

james montier

From Finanz und Wirtschaft

James Montier is a full-blooded value investor. Pickings are slim these days, though, says the member of the asset allocation team at the Boston-based asset manager GMO. He sees a «hideous opportunity set» for investors, with the S&P-500 being overvalued by 50 to 70 percent.

James, are you able to find anything in today’s financial markets that still has an attractive valuation?

Continue reading »

Tags: , , , ,

Mar 11


Captain Obvious strikes again.

Hussman Warns S&P 500 Over-Valuation Now Higher Than Housing In 2006 (Zerohedge, March 10, 2014)

Tags: , , ,

Feb 23

Just 12 WTF Charts (ZeroHedge, Feb 22, 2014)

Tags: , , ,

Feb 05

Japan Is Re-Crisis-ing; Nikkei Plunges 300 Points From US Close; S&P’s Dead-Cat-Bounce Dead (ZeroHedge, Feb 4, 2014):

US and Japanese stocks began to fall the moment the bell rang in NYC on the end of the US day-session. By the times futures closed 15mins later, the S&P had already lost 6 points and the exuberance in the Nikkei had snapped back to USDJPY reality (100 points off its highs). As the evening progressed the dead-cat-bounce died with US and Japanese stocks tumbling to day-session lows. Dow futures are down 110 from the highs; S&P futures are down 16 points from the US session highs; and Nikkei futures – not helped by the 19th month in a row of falling YoY base wages – are testing 14,050, having dropped 300 points from the highs and removed all day-session gains. Stocks are re-crisis-ing as USDJPY tests back towards 101.

Continue reading »

Tags: , , , , , , ,

Jan 18

Terrifying Technicals: This Chartist Predicts An Anti-Fed Revulsion, And A Plunge In The S&P To 450 (ZeroHedge, Jan 17, 2014)

Tags: , , ,