Grant Williams is a portfolio and strategy adviser at Vulpes Investment Management in Singapore. He began his career in finance with Robert Fleming & Co. in London, where he traded Japanese equity warrants. Mr. Williams also worked at Jardine Fleming in Tokyo before returning to Flemings in London, where he helped establish the firm’s pan-Asian convertible trading business. He headed up Asian equity trading at UBS in London and then ran equity trading books at Credit Suisse in New York, Hong Kong, and Sydney. Mr. Williams has a strong focus on precious metals and miners and is a regular speaker at investment conferences around the world. He writes the Things That Make You Go Hmmm… column for Mauldin Economics’ weekly newsletter.
One final point: for all those who say the Fed’s QE has “been successful”, or the stock market is sufficiently strong and does not need any more forced liquidity injections, here is a simple suggestion: just end it.
The rapidity of gold’s drop is impressive, concerning, and disorderly. We have seen two other such instances of disorderly ‘hurried’ selling in the last five years. In July 2008, gold quickly dropped 21% – seemingly pre-empting the Lehman debacle and the collapse of the western banking system. In September 2011, gold fell 20% in a short period – as Europe’s risks exploded and stocks slumped prompting a globally co-ordinated central bank intervention the likes of which we have not seen before. Given the almost-record-breaking drop in gold in the last few days, we wonder what is coming?
While chart analogs provide optically pleasing (and often far too shockingly correct) indications of the human herd tendencies towards fear and greed, a glance through the headlines and reporting of prior periods can provide just as much of a concerning ‘analog’ as any chart. In this case, while a picture can paint a thousand words; a thousand words may also paint the biggest picture of all. It seems, socially and empirically, it is never different this time as these 1936 Wall Street Journal archives read only too well… from devaluations lifting stocks to inflationary side-effects of money flow and from short-covering, money-on-the-sidelines, Jobs, Europe, low-volume ramps, BTFD, and profit-taking, to brokers advising stocks for the long-run before a 40% decline.Things look eerily similar eh?
But when we look at the headlines in the Wall Street Journal from mid 1936 to mid 1937 as the market topped out (orange oval), dipped, was bought back, then collapsed 40% in 3 months, nothing ever changes…
Government Bailouts Repaid – Bullish Implications…
N.Y. Central Has Repaid All Government Loans The Wall Street Journal, 978 words Dec 1, 1936
WASHINGTON Numerous railroad developments here yesterday were climaxed by the announcement of RFC Chairman Jesse H. Jones that New York Central had repaid all of its government loans, totaling $16,858,950, most of which was not due until 1941. Continue reading »
Bob Janjuah may nt have rvrted to his RBS wrtng style of yore, yet, but the New Nrml appears to also fnly b getting to 1 of our fvrte strategists, who has finally gone bold, ALL CAPS.From Bob’s World: Are We There Yet?
I last wrote in November (Risk not on?) and since then markets have broadly continued to track the medium-term bigger picture outlook set out in that note, as well as the shorter-term tactical “S&P500 1450/1475 rule? that I also discussed in that piece and in my earlier September note (Stop Loss Update). I wanted to publish now to provide some extra clarity: Continue reading »
Despite the seemingly generational destruction to household and bank balance sheets and an entirely unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy reponse, investors would never know it given the market’s reactions from the 2009 lows relative to its rally from the 2003 lows. Different this time? hhmmm… Worried about gold prices falling also? Doesn’t look like we learned anything from the ‘Debt Ceiling’ debate either… S&P 500 – 2003-low rally vs 2009-low rally; unbelievable!
What is most shocking is the cataclysmic drop we suffered did nothing to quell the status quo’s belief that one more bubble will do it and save us all… This rally off the 2009 lows feels excessive (and is given the real backdrop) but is in reality not so different from the Greenspan-to-Bernanke handoff bubble that led to this idiocy… Continue reading »