The public-to-private sector “revolving door” has crossed into the macabre twilight zone.
Moments ago an announcement by giant bond manager (technically, these days “merely above average height” bond manager, considering the collapse in the TRF’s AUM since Bill Gross’ departure over a year ago) revealed that public service cronyism is not only alive, but has never been better, when in a press release it reported that former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, ex-U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, and former ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet will form the backbone of a “global advisory board” at Pimco. Continue reading »
– Pimco Paid Gross, El-Erian Over Half A Billion Dollars In 2013 Bonuses (ZeroHedge, Nov 14, 2014):
And a stunner just out of of Bloomberg:
PIMCO PAID GROSS $290 MILLION BONUS FOR 2013, DOCUMENT SHOWS
PIMCO PAID FORMER CEO EL-ERIAN ABOUT $230 MLN BONUS IN 2013
More from the source:
Pacific Investment Management Co. paid its former Chief Investment Officer Bill Gross a bonus of about $290 million in 2013, a year in which his Total Return Fund trailed a majority of peers, according to documents provided to Bloomberg View by someone with knowledge of Pimco’s bonus policies. Continue reading »
– Why Everyone Should Be Watching PIMCO (In 2 Worrying Charts) (ZeroHedge, Oct 12, 2014):
By now it is clear to everyone that the force-feeding of free-money into financial markets by The Fed et al. has led to a scale of financial repression never before witnessed as bond yields for even the riskiest of risky names collapse to record lows and cheap-financed share buybacks raise leverage to record highs and support an ever more fragile equity wealth creation machine. As Blackrock (and many others) have recently proclaimed, the corporate bond market is “broken” and the risk posed by investors trying to dump bonds is”percolating right under” the noses of regulators; so it is with grave concern we suggest the following two charts – showing the massive out-sized holdings of PIMCO’s funds in the high-yield and emerging market debt markets leave a bond marketplace in fear that forced sales via redemptions are the straw that breaks the ‘central bank omnipotence’ narrative’s back…
PIMCO – simply put – dominates the market for high-yield and emerging market debt… Continue reading »
– PIMCO Liquidations Begin; And So Does The Retaliation: All Bill Gross Tweets Deleted (ZeroHedge, Sep 29, 2014):
The last few days have been hectic for PIMCO executives. As we already noted, expectations of outflows persist and today’s open in CDS markets suggested major concerns among market participants that PIMCO redemptions would force selling through an illiquid market. Sure enough, Bloomberg reports that PIMCO’s Total Return Fund ETF was behind the auction of more than $170m of Fannie Mae CMBS on Friday (and more BWICs were seen today). As one trader noted, “you’re going to sell your most liquid stuff first.” Additionally, PIMCO has seen fit to delete all Bill Gross’ tweets… so here are the last six months for the record.
As Bloomberg reports, the PIMCO liquidations have begun… Continue reading »
– Gross To Have Final Laugh? Whopping Two-Thirds Of PIMCO’s Flagship Fund May Be Withdrawn (ZeroHedge, Sep 29, 2014):
The reason why the first article we wrote on Friday after news hit that PIMCO co-founder was shockingly leaving the firm on Friday, was listing the massive bond fund’s biggest holdings, was because it was only a matter of time: it, being of course, the massive redemptions that would follow Gross’ departure by people that his 30+ tenure at the bond fund made very rich, and who couldn’t care less about a brief central planning-inspired flame out. After all Gross isn’t the first person who has lost the plotline due to the Fed’s manipulation of every market. Continue reading »
– PIMCO: Here’s What It Owns (ZeroHedge, Sep 26, 2014):
PIMCO is big. Scratch that, it’s massive: after all it holds over $2 trillion in global securities, mostly bond-related. It is so big, in fact, it takes two pages just to list the number of funds that comprise it, let alone the securities that these funds actually own. Which is a problem when trying to estimate the impact of what a possible asset-shift, if not outright liqudation of some/all of PIMCO’s holdings would have. Yet one has to start somewhere, and the somewhere probably should be with the list of the TRF’s biggest holdings as a % of NAV. Here it is.
– Bill Gross Quits PIMCO, Which He Co-Founded, Joining Janus (ZeroHedge, Sep 26, 2014):
After co-founding PIMCO in 1971, Bill Gross has called it quits…
- *WILLIAM H. GROSS JOINS JANUS CAPITAL
- *JANUS:GROSS TO START MANAGING FUND,RELATED STRATEGIES OCT.6,’14
“I look forward to returning my full focus to the fixed income markets and investing, giving up many of the complexities that go with managing a large, complicated organization,” said Mr. Gross.
Janus stock is +20% on the news. 40% now!) Continue reading »
– “You Can’t Fire Me, I Quit” – PIMCO Was Preparing To Fire Gross (ZeroHedge, Sep 26, 2014):
With more than $65 billion pulled from PIMCO’s funds since May 2013, Bill Gross’ firm had been struggling amid spotty performance and it seems, according to The Wall Street Journal, PIMCO (not Allianz) was set to fire the 70-year old bond king this weekend. It seems clear that Mr. Gross move was pre-emptive as sources cite his “increasingly erratic behavior” and ultimatums as factors in the move. Assumptions about Mohamed El-Erian returning to run the company have been denied. Some have estimated PIMCO could see a further 10-30% in fund outflows on the back of Mr. Gross’ departure.
… a well-paid blogger.
– Mohamed El-Erian Quits Pimco, Becomes A Blogger (ZeroHedge, April 14, 2014):
We realize the future for blogging was bright, but this bright? Moments ago, Bloomberg View, Bloomberg’s in house blogging operation, announced that El-Erian had joined it as a columnist. And just like that Mohamed has his own unedited venue in which to spill all the dirt on his former employer.
Bloomberg View today announced that Mohamed A. El-Erian is joining the opinion and analysis site as a daily columnist covering economic developments, policy and financial markets.
“Mohamed is one of the world’s most highly-regarded financial and economic observers – and he’s also a wonderful writer” said David Shipley, the senior executive editor of Bloomberg View. “We’re thrilled that he’s going to be sharing his insights with our readers on a daily basis.”
PIMCO is an autonomous subsidiary of Allianz.
Nobody in his right mind (let alone Bill Gross, ‘the king of bonds’) would by toxic European debt.
I highly doubt that PIMCO is a FOMO (aka Fear of Missing Out) buyer.
From the article:
“Recall that it was the IMF itself which said in October of 2012 that European banks needs to sell $4.5 trillion in assets until 2014.”
The elitists are intentionally running everything into the ground and there will be nothing left.
Again, prepare for total collapse.
– PIMCO To Buy Billions In European Toxic Debt (ZeroHedge, March 5, 2014)
Earlier today we were surprised when none other than uber central-planning skeptic, not to mention bond fund manager, Bill Gross threw in the towel and in his latest letter advocated the purchase of risk assets – and Bill Gross is the last person needing reminding that in a day and age when the 10 Year yields just barely over 2.5%, this means not bonds but stocks. The surprise, however, promptly disappeared when we realized that PIMCO is merely the latest entrant in the scramble for yield game following, with a substantial delay to all of its other “alternative” asset management peers, right into ground zero: European toxic debt.
– America’s Bubble Economy Is Going To Become An Economic Black Hole (Economic Collapse, May 22, 2013):
What is going to happen when the greatest economic bubble in the history of the world pops? The mainstream media never talks about that. They are much too busy covering the latest dogfights in Washington and what Justin Bieber has been up to. And most Americans seem to think that if the Dow keeps setting new all-time highs that everything must be okay. Sadly, that is not the case at all. Right now, the U.S. economy is exhibiting all of the classic symptoms of a bubble economy. You can see this when you step back and take a longer-term view of things. Over the past decade, we have added more than 10 trillion dollars to the national debt. But most Americans have shown very little concern as the balance on our national credit card has soared from 6 trillion dollars to nearly 17 trillion dollars. Meanwhile, Wall Street has been transformed into the biggest casino on the planet, and much of the new money that the Federal Reserve has been recklessly printing up has gone into stocks. But the Dow does not keep setting new records because the underlying economic fundamentals are good. Rather, the reckless euphoria that we are seeing in the financial markets right now reminds me very much of 1929. Margin debt is absolutely soaring, and every time that happens a crash rapidly follows. But this time when a crash happens it could very well be unlike anything that we have ever seen before. The top 25 U.S. banks have more than 212 trillion dollars of exposure to derivatives combined, and when that house of cards comes crashing down there is no way that anyone will be able to prop it back up. After all, U.S. GDP for an entire year is only a bit more than 15 trillion dollars.
But most Americans are only focused on the short-term because the mainstream media is only focused on the short-term. Things are good this week and things were good last week, so there is nothing to worry about, right?
Back in April 2012, in “How The Fed’s Visible Hand Is Forcing Corporate Cash Mismanagement” we first explained how despite its best intentions (to boost the Russell 2000 to new all time highs, a goal it achieved), the Fed’s now constant intervention in capital markets has achieved one thing when it comes to the real economy: an unprecedented capital mismanagemenet, where as a result of ZIRP, corporate executives will always opt for short-term, low IRR, myopic cash allocation decisions such as dividend, buyback and, sometimes, M&A, seeking to satisfy shareholders and ignoring real long-term growth opportunities such as R&D spending, efficiency improvements, capital reinvestment, retention and hiring of employees, and generally all those things that determine success for anyone whose investment horizon is longer than the nearest lockup gate. Today, one calendar year later, none other than Bill Gross, in his first investment letter of 2013, admits we were correct: “Zero-bound interest rates, QE maneuvering, and “essentially costless” check writing destroy financial business models and stunt investment decisions which offer increasingly lower ROIs and ROEs. Purchases of “paper” shares as opposed to investments in tangible productive investment assets become the likely preferred corporate choice.”
It is this that should be the focus of economists, and not what the level of the S&P is, as it is no longer indicative of any underlying market fundamentals, but merely how large, in nominal terms, the global balance sheet is. And as long as the impact of peak central-planning on “business models” is ignored, there can be no hope of economic stabilization, let alone improvement. All this and much more, especially his admissions that yes, it is flow, and not stock, that dominates the Fed market impact (think great white shark – must always be moving), if not calculus, in Bill Gross’ latest letter.
From PIMCO: Continue reading »
FT: ‘Wages Have To Be Slashed By 30-40% In the UK’
YouTube Added: 04.12.2012
In this episode, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert investigate the black hole of debt sucking in our economies, jobs and wealth like strings of spaghetti past the economic event horizon. In the second half, Max Keiser talks to Ned Naylor-Leyland of Cheviot Asset Management about the fishy smoke signals blowing at the LBMA regarding silver contracts and about the debate between inflation, deflation, hyperinflation actually being a debate about the final denouement of paper currencies. Ned also reveals that BBC’s flagship programme, Panorama, had interviewed him and Andrew Maguire about silver manipulation and yet have never aired the episode.
Tags: Bank of England, Banking, Ben Bernanke, Bill Gross, Bonds, Bubble, Collapse, Debt, Economy, EU, Europe, Fed, Federal Reserve, Global News, Gold, Government, Hyperinflation, Inflation, Mark Carney, Max Keiser, Obama administration, PIMCO, Politics, Quantitative Easing, Silver, U.K., U.S.
– Bill Gross Preemptively Summarizes Today’s Election Result In 22 Words (ZeroHedge, Nov 6, 2012):
Presented without comment – adding anything to this concise summation of the state of the union is superfluous…
– Bill Gross: “Ours Is A Country Of The SuperPAC, By The SuperPAC, And For The SuperPAC” (ZeroHedge, Nov 1, 2012):
Curious why we dedicate precious virtual real estate to periodically bring to you the “billionaires behind the best presidents money can buy“? Bill Gross explains why?
Time To Vote, from PIMCO’s Bill GrossSo I pulled out my magic lamp that for some reason works only every October 22nd, and rubbed until the Genie appeared in his red and white checkered cloak with a 10-inch diameter Flavor Flav clock hanging ceremoniously around his neck. Being a rather forward, although not disrespectful Genie, he immediately said, “Mr. G, instead of the yield on the 10-year Treasury, perhaps this year you should wish to know who is going to win the Presidential election?” After some thought I replied, “Nah, I need some breaking news, Mr. Genie, something that will make a difference, something that will shock the world, like when does the iPhone 6 come out?” Obama/Romney, Romney/Obama – the most important election of our lifetime? Fact is they’re all the same – bought and paid for with the same money. Ours is a country of the SuperPAC, by the SuperPAC, and for the SuperPAC. The “people” are merely election-day pawns, pulling a Democratic or Republican lever that will deliver the same results every four years. “Change you can believe in?” I bought that one hook, line and sinker in 2008 during the last vestige of my disappearing middle age optimism. We got a more intelligent President, but we hardly got change. Healthcare dominated by corporate interests – what’s new? Financial regulation dominated by Wall Street – what’s new? Continuing pointless foreign wars – what’s new?I’ll tell you what isn’t new. Our two-party system continues to play ping pong with the American people, and the electorate is that white little ball going back and forth over the net. This side’s better – no, that one looks best. Elephants/Donkeys, Donkeys/Elephants. Perhaps the most farcical aspect of it all is that the choice between the two seems to occupy most of our time. Instead of digging in and digging out of this mess on a community level, we sit in front of our flat screens and watch endless debates about red and blue state theologies or listen to demagogues like Rush Limbaugh or his ex-cable counterpart Keith Olbermann. To express my discontent, Genie, along with my continuing patriotism, I’ve created a modern-day version of our Pledge of Allegiance. Place your hand over your clock and recite after me: Continue reading »
Tags: Barack Obama, Ben Bernanke, Bill Gross, Collapse, Economy, Fed, Federal Reserve, GDP, Global News, Government, Great Depression, Mitt Romney, Obama administration, PIMCO, Politics, Society, U.S.
– Bill Gross Warns “Very Likely’ Central Banks Will Cause 1987-Like Crash (ZeroHedge, Oct 19, 2012):
What takes other Political Journalism majors (and CTRL-C/V minors) pages and pages of verbose essays full of acronyms and meaningless gibberish to refute, Bill Gross asserts in less than 140 characters.
– From Zero Interest Rate To Zero Retirement: How The Fed Doomed Elderly Americans To Endless Work (ZeroHedge, Oct 8, 2012):
Excerpted from PIMCO Viewpoints: What’s Your Number at the Zero Bound?
The math of what happens when assumed rates of return go down, driven by a pro-active ZIRP from the Fed, is pretty straightforward. To make up for this, PIMCO notes that those approaching retirement have three choices: a) save more, b) work longer, or c) tighten their belts in retirement. Each of these are clear, individual family choices, but what happens when the whole of society is faced with the same dilemma? What works for one household can be grossly sub-optimal for society.
– PIMCO On Gold – The Simple Facts (ZeroHedge, Oct 1, 2012):
Via Nicholas Johnson and Mihir Worah of PIMCO,
GOLD – The Simple Facts
When it comes to investing in gold, investors often see the world in black and white. Some people have a deep, almost religious conviction that gold is a useless, barbarous relic with no yield; it’s an asset no rational investor would ever want. Others love it, seeing it as the only asset that can offer protection from the coming financial catastrophe, which is always just around the corner.
Our views are more nuanced and, we believe, provide a balanced framework for assessing value. Our bottom line: given current valuations and central bank policies, we see gold as a compelling inflation hedge and store of value that is potentially superior to fiat currencies.
We believe investors should consider allocating gold and other precious metals to a diversified investment portfolio. The supply of gold is constrained, and we see demand increasing consistent with global economic growth on a per capita basis. Regarding inflation in particular, we feel that the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin a third round of quantitative easing makes gold even more attractive.
– The “Bond King”: Buy Gold, Not Bonds (ZeroHedge, Sep 10, 2012):
The “Bond King” – Pimco boss Bill Gross – says:
[There’s] a diminished or dying cult of both bonds and stocks from the standpoint of a belief that they can return 10% ….
Gold can’t be reproduced. It could certainly be taken out of the ground in an increasing rate but there’s a limiting amount of gold.
And there has been an unlimited amount of paper money over the past 20 to 30 years and now – in this period of central bank expansion where it’s QE1 or QE2, or whether it’s the LTROs of the ECB or this potential new program … then central banks are at their leisure to basically print money.
Gold is a fixed commodity that has a considerable store of value that paper money has not….
When a central bank starts writing checks and printing money in the trillions of dollars, it’s best to have something tangible that can’t be reproduced, such as gold.
Gold … is a better investment than a bond or a stock, which probably will only return a 3 to 4 percent return over the next 5 to 10 years.
Gross doesn’t believe that gold is a crowded trade at this point.
Has Mr. Gross been reading Zero Hedge?
– The Scary Math Behind The Mechanics Of QE3, And Why Bernanke’s Hands May Be Tied (ZeroHedge, Sep 7, 2012):
When it comes to the NEW QE, everyone has an opinion, and most seem to believe that the NEW QE will come next week, now that the US economy added “just” 96,000 people (but, but, the unemployment rate ‘fell’). Certainly, and far more importantly, if the most recent FOMC minutes are any guide, the Fed shares this view. Sadly, as so often happens, most, and this includes the FOMC’s various voting members, have once again made up their minds without actually evaluating the limitations posed by simple math. After all it is far easier to form an opinion, and actually think about the underlying facts later. The math, for those who actually have looked at the numbers behind the scenes, is scary (in UBS’ words, not ours).Here is the math.
As part of its Operation Twist, the Fed is buying long-term bonds, and selling short-term (0-3 years) bonds. As we reported in April, the biggest limitation for the Fed is that it is rapidly running out of short-term bonds to sell. There is a fix to this: the Fed will simply have to sell longer dated bonds from its SOMA portfolio, first up to 5 years, then 7, and so on. Of course, this will also force the Fed to extend its ZIRP language by an appropriate amount of time, through 2017, then 2019, and so on (which also means all bets that the Fed will hike any time in the next 5 years will be immediately null and void, and one can position accordingly in the Eurodollar space).
This move, however, will simply permit the Fed to extend Twist 2 beyond its year-end maturity. As a reminder, the primary role of Twist, aside from that stated one which is to keep the curve as flat as possible (i.e., boost housing which as we showed yesterday is not working, as refis have plunged recently despite record low mortgage rates), is to absorb virtually all the long-end supply: after all, it is all about the funding of the US $1 trillion+ annual budget deficit.
Said otherwise, when it comes to the 10-30 year sector the Fed is already monetizing all new issuance. This is part of the entire flow argument which we have been discussing for the past 6 months, and why we, correctly, say that Operation Twist is really QE 3 and QE 3.5 (for the recent extension of Twist). So far so good.
Here comes the important part.
Three weeks ago we presented a video courtesy of Stone McCarthy which showed a timelapse of the “takeover” of the Fed as the primary holder of public debt. For those short on time, here is how the Fed’s holdings portfolio looked like then…
The shaded region is important for two reasons: this is where the Fed will be buying new bonds as part of any new QE Large Scale Asset Purchase program, and it tells us all there is to know about how big and how effective QE3 (really 4) will be. The bottom line, as calculated by UBS’ Michael Schumacher and confirmed by anyone with access to the detail behind the Fed’s SOMA holdings, which incidentally just hit a record 116 months two months ahead of Twist 2 schedule, is that “the Fed owns all but $650 billion of 10-30 year nominal Treasuries.” Also as pointed out above, Twist 2, aka QE 3.5 is already absorbing all of the long end supply. And herein lies the rub. To quote UBS: “Taking out, say, $300 billion in long-end Treasuries almost certainly would put tremendous pressure on liquidity in that market….Ploughing ahead with a large, fixed size QE program could cause liquidity to tank.”
In other words, anyone expecting a full blown LSAP focusing only on US Treasurys will very likely be disappointed as the Fed will certainly realize, quite soon we hope, that it has only $650 billion in total 10 year + bonds available in the entire private market!
Well, perhaps the Fed will just monetize MBS, as Bill Gross has been betting on for nearly a year now. It could do that… but when once factors in “math“, the results are once again quite startling. Quote UBS again: Continue reading »
– Market rumor: Pimco and JP Morgan halt vacations to prepare for economic crash (Examiner, June 3, 2012):
On June 1, market rumors were coming out of a hedge fund luncheon stating that Pimco, JP Morgan, and other financial companies were cancelling summer vacations for employees so they could prepare for a major ‘Lehman type’ economic crash projected for the coming months. These rumors came on a day when the markets nearly came to capitulation, with the DOW falling more than 274 points, and gold soaring over $63 as traders across the board fled stocks and moved into safer investments.
Todd Harrison tweet: Hearing (not confirmed) @PIMCO asked employees to cancel vacations to have “all hands on deck” for a Lehman-type tail event. Confirm?
Todd M. Schoenberger tweet: @todd_harrison @pimco I heard the same thing, but I also heard the same for “some” at JPM. Heard it today at a hedge fund luncheon.
Todd Harrison is the CEO of the award winning internet media company Minyanville, while Todd Shoenberger is a managing principal at the Blackbay Group, and an adjunct professor of Finance at Cecil College.
Pimco and JP Morgan Chase are not the only financial institutions worried about a potential repeat of the 2008 credit crisis. On May 31, one day before Pinco rumors began to spread around the markets, World Bank President Robert Zoellick issued the same warnings of a potential ‘rerun of the great panic of 2008’. Continue reading »
– By The Time Operation Twist 1 Is Over, The Fed Will Have Quietly Completed 40% Of Operation Twist 2 As Well (ZeroHedge, May 20, 2012):
By the time Operation Twist (1) ends in just over 40 days time, on June 30, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, according to his previously announced “loose” target, will hope to have extended the average maturity of all bonds in the System Open Market Account (SOMA) to a record of roughly 100 months from 75 month at the onset of the program in October 2011. After all the sole purpose of Twist was to load up the Fed’s portfolio with duration, forcing the rest of the market to shift its investing curve even further into risky assets, as the Fed will have effectively onboarded the bulk of securities in the 3-4% return interval. Now as we showed back in early April, hopes that the Fed will simply continue with Operation Twist 2 after the end of “season” 1, as suggested by some clueless “access journalists” who merely relay what they are told by higher powers, are completely misguided as the Fed simply does not have enough short-term securities (1-3 years) to sell, and would have at most 2 months of inventory for a continued sterilized operation. Which however, does not mean that the Fed can not be quietly ramping up its operations in the ongoing Twisting episode. Because as Stone McCarthy demonstrates, as of the past week, the Fed has already surpassed its 100 month maturity target of 100 months, and is at 102.82 months as of May 16. And this is with 6 more weeks of Twist to go: at the current rate of SOMA purchases, the Fed will have a total portfolio average maturity of just shy of 110 months by June 30! Which means that contrary to market expectations of what the Fed’s own stated goal may have been, Bernanke will have gobbled up nearly 40% more long-dated Flow relative to estimates! In other words, Ben does not need to do a full blown Operation Twist 2 episode: by the time Twist 1 is over, he will have attained nearly 40% of the goals of the next potential sterilized operation.
Why is this important? Well, recall that over a month ago Goldman Sachs itself admitted what we have been saying for over 3 years: it is not stock that matters… it is flow. Recall the Goldman punchline:
…we have found some evidence that at the very long end of the yield curve, where Operation Twist is concentrated, it may be not just the stock of securities held by the Fed but also the ongoing flow of purchases that matters for yields…
And there you have it. Continue reading »
– Gold Bug Bill Gross Will Gladly Pay You Tuesday For A Hamburger Today, Hoping “Tuesday Never Comes” (ZeroHedge, May 1, 2012):
We will forgive Bill Gross for taking the chart that Zero Hedge first presented (oddly enough correctly attributed by his arch rival Jeff Gundlach) as the centerpiece of his just released monthly musings, and wrongfully misattributing it, for the simple reason that everything else in his latest monthly letter “Tuesday Never Comes” is a carbon copy of the topics covered and discussed extensively on these pages both recently and over the past 3 years. However something tells us that the man who manages over $1 trillion in bonds in the form of the world’s largest bond portfolio will be slowly in getting branded a gold bug by the idiot media even with such warnings as “real assets/commodities should occupy an increasing percentage of portfolios.” Neither will his warnings that an inflationary spike courtesy of the tens of trillions in loose money added to the system will be inflationary: “inflation should creep higher. Do not be mellowed by the affirmation of a 2% target rate of inflation here in the U.S. or as targeted in six of the G-7 nations. Not suddenly, but over time, gradually higher rates of inflation should be the result of QE policies and zero bound yields that were initiated in late 2008 and which will likely continue for years to come.” Finally, since Zero Hedge is the only venue that has been pounding the table on the whole “flow” vs “stock” debate which is at the heart of it all (see here), we were delighted to see this topic get a much needed mention by the world’s now most influential gold bug: “The Fed appears to have a theory that is somewhat incomprehensible to me, stressing the “stock” of Treasuries as opposed to the “flow.” And there you have it. In summary: to anyone who has read Zero Hedge recently, don’t expect much new ground covered. To anyone else, this is a must read.
From Bill GrossTuesday Never Comes
- The current acceleration of credit via central bank policies will likely produce a positive rate of real economic growth this year for most developed countries, but the structural distortions brought about by zero bound interest rates will limit that growth and induce serious risks in future years.
- Not suddenly, but over time, gradually higher rates of inflation should be the result of QE policies and zero bound yields that will likely continue for years to come.
- Focus on securities with shorter durations – bonds with maturities in the five-year range and stocks paying dividends that offer 3%–4% yields. In addition, real assets/commodities should occupy an increasing percentage of portfolios.
– Bill Gross Explains The European Ponzi (ZeroHedge, Feb. 8, 2012):
Not like it is news, but… Out of one pocket, into another, and in the mean time “things get better” as Gross explains below. That said, we hope Bill knows where Allianz of A&G fame (which just happens to be the closest comp to our own AIG) falls in the pecking order of the European house of cards.
– ‘King Of Bonds‘ Bill Gross Explains Why “We Are Witnessing The Death Of Abundance” And Why Gold Is Becoming The Default “Store Of Value” (ZeroHedge, Feb. 1, 2012):
While sounding just a tad preachy in his February newsletter, Bill Gross’ latest summary piece on the economy, on the Fed’s forray into infinite ZIRP, into maturity transformation, and the lack thereof, on the Fed’s massive blunder in treating the liquidity trap, but most importantly on what the transition from a levering to delevering global economy means, is a must read. First: on the fatal flaw in the Fed’s plan: “when rational or irrational fear persuades an investor to be more concerned about the return of her money than on her money then liquidity can be trapped in a mattress, a bank account or a five basis point Treasury bill. But that commonsensical observation is well known to Fed policymakers, economic historians and certainly citizens on Main Street.” And secondly, here is why the party is over: “Where does credit go when it dies? It goes back to where it came from. It delevers, it slows and inhibits economic growth, and it turns economic theory upside down, ultimately challenging the wisdom of policymakers. We’ll all be making this up as we go along for what may seem like an eternity. A 30-50 year virtuous cycle of credit expansion which has produced outsize paranormal returns for financial assets – bonds, stocks, real estate and commodities alike – is now delevering because of excessive “risk” and the “price” of money at the zero-bound. We are witnessing the death of abundance and the borning of austerity, for what may be a long, long time.” Yet most troubling is that even Gross, a long-time member of the status quo, now sees what has been obvious only to fringe blogs for years: “ Recent central bank behavior, including that of the U.S. Fed, provides assurances that short and intermediate yields will not change, and therefore bond prices are not likely threatened on the downside. Still, zero-bound money may kill as opposed to create credit. Developed economies where these low yields reside may suffer accordingly. It may as well, induce inflationary distortions that give a rise to commodities and gold as store of value alternatives when there is little value left in paper.” Let that sink in for a second, and let it further sink in what happens when $1.3 trillion Pimco decides to open a gold fund. Physical preferably…
From PIMCO’s Bill Gross:
Life – and Death Proposition
- Recent central bank behavior, including that of the U.S. Fed, provides assurances that short and intermediate yields will not change, and therefore bond prices are not likely threatened on the downside.
- Most short to intermediate Treasury yields are dangerously close to the zero-bound which imply limited potential room, if any, for price appreciation.
- We can’t put $100 trillion of credit in a system-wide mattress, but we can move in that direction by delevering and refusing to extend maturities and duration. Continue reading »
– Bill Gross’ Explains The FOMC Decision: “QE 2.5 Today, QE 3, 4, 5 … Lie Ahead” (ZeroHedge, Jan. 25, 2012):
Pimco just saved you lots of garbage sellside “research” “analysis” on the topic.
– Bill Gross: Enjoy The Santa Rally – The Hangover Is Coming As “US Is Not An Island” (ZeroHedge, Dec. 20, 2011):
Just tweeted from the bond titan who is getting more and more concerned about those asset management fees in a world in which fixed income is increasingly becoming risk free, courtesy of central planning, until Gresham’s law unwind destroys everyone.
– Bill Gross Has Record $60 Billion Short Cash Bet Fed To Proceed With MBS Monetization (ZeroHedge, Dec. 12, 2011):
Following the release of its November fund statistics, Pimco’s Total Return Fund has once again reaffirmed it is betting on imminent QE by the Fed in the form of MBS monetization, a trend it started two months ago as we pointed out. And with a record $60 billion short cash position, or 25% of the entire fund $242 billion AUM, they better be right this time (he did the same thing in Jan-Feb… that did not work out too well). It is amazing to consider that back in April, Gross was long $90 billion in cash: a $150 billion swing! The TRF’s 43% holdings of MBS is an increase of 5% compared to October, the most since December 2010, but still just half of the 86% held in February 2009 in expectation sof MBS monetizations by the Fed as part of QE 1. Just as notable is the near record effective fund duration, which at 7.46 was the second highest ever, just a modest drop from the 7.58 in October. What is most curious is that Gross, for the first time as far as our records go, is completely out of the 0-3 year maturity range. Which makes sense: after all the Fed has telegraphed there will be no money made in that band of rates until mid-2013, a deadline which will likely soon be extended.
- Bill Gross Sends Out Big Apology To Investors, And Then Declares That The Economy Is Doomed (Business Insider, Oct. 15, 2011):
Funny, just yesterday afternoon we pointed out the irony of nobody caring about the fact that Bill Gross had loaded up the boat on the long end of the yield curve, a gamble that obviously meant one thing: He sees no growth or inflation ahead — essentially an economy that’s doomed.
Now he might get more attention, because he just put that in writing.
– Greek cabinet approves austerity budget (Telegraph, June 22, 2011):
Pimco, the world’s biggest bond fund, shrugged off last night’s vote of confidence in the Greek government warning that it expects Greece and other European economies to default on their debts to resolve their problems.
“For the next three years, we’re going to see different economies work out different problems. For European economies, especially Greece, it would be through default,” Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of Pimco, said in Taipei on Wednesday in a video conference.
“Nothing has been done to enhance growth,” he said. “No single (Greek) indicator has shown strength. They are afraid a restructuring would hurt European banks.”
However, he doubted a Greek default could trigger another global financial crisis: “Ireland, Portugal, Italy and Spain would have to be involved. But Greece is too small in terms of economic impact.”
Horacio Valeiras, chief investment officer of fund firm Allianz Global Investors Capital (AGIC), predicted that Ireland and Portugal, countries that also received financial bailouts in the wake of the global credit crisis, will have to restructure their debts.
“We are not investing in Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal,” he said at the press briefing. He sees default in Greece as “inevitable”.
California-based Pimco (Pacific Investment Management Company), is based in California and is the world’s biggest bond fund manager with nearly $1.3 trillion in assets under management.
Don’t blame American appetites, rising oil prices, or genetically modified crops for rising food prices. Wall Street’s at fault for the spiraling cost of food.
It took the brilliant minds of Goldman Sachs to realize the simple truth that nothing is more valuable than our daily bread. And where there’s value, there’s money to be made. In 1991, Goldman bankers, led by their prescient president Gary Cohn, came up with a new kind of investment product, a derivative that tracked 24 raw materials, from precious metals and energy to coffee, cocoa, cattle, corn, hogs, soy, and wheat. They weighted the investment value of each element, blended and commingled the parts into sums, then reduced what had been a complicated collection of real things into a mathematical formula that could be expressed as a single manifestation, to be known henceforth as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI).
Tags: Agriculture, AIG, Banking, Barclays, Bear Stearns, Commodities, Derivatives, Derivatives market, Deutsche Bank, Economy, Financial Crisis, Food, Global News, Goldman Sachs, Inflation, JP Morgan Chase, Lehman Brothers, PIMCO, Wall Street
A month ago, Zero Hedge first reported that Bill Gross had taken the stunning decision to bring his Treasury exposure from 12% to 0%: a move which many interpreted as just business, and not personal: after all Pimco had previously telegraphed its disgust with US paper, and was merely mitigating its exposure.
This time, in another Zero Hedge first, we discover that it is no longer business for Bill – it has now become personal (and with an attendant cost of carry).
In March, Pimco’s flagship Total Return Fund (TRF) has now taken an active short position in US government debt: -3% on a Market Value basis (or $7.1 billion), and a whopping -18% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis.
And confirming just what PIMCO thinks of US-related paper is the fact that the world’s largest “bond” fund now has cash, at a stunning $73 billion, or 31% of all assets, as its largest asset class on both a relative and absolute basis.
We repeat: cash is more than PIMCO’s holdings of Treasurys and Mortgage securities ($66 billion) combined. To paraphrase: in March PIMCO was dumping everything related to US rates (see chart below).
Captain Obvious strikes again.
More from Bill Gross:
In a letter focusing on what has been well known to Zero Hedge readers for about two years now, Bill Gross’ latest investment outlook does the usual attack of Beltway stupidity (as if Congress is in any way competent of making math-related decisions – they do what Wall Street – that’s you Bill! – tell them to do, and you know it), emphasizing the impossible math of total US entitlement liabilities (on a net present value basis), which Gross estimates at $75 trillion. That Gross conclusion is predetermined from the onset is not surprising: “Unless entitlements are substantially reformed, I am confident that this country will default on its debt; not in conventional ways, but by picking the pocket of savers via a combination of less observable, yet historically verifiable policies – inflation, currency devaluation and low to negative real interest rates.”
Then again, that America is bankrupt is not really news to anyone. Neither is it news, that Gross, as we first reported, no longer has any US bonds to dispose of. What will be news is the inflection point at which Gross starts purchasing Treasuries once again. And after all with $220 billion in AUM in the Total Return Fund, what else will he do: hold on to cash? Buy Netflix? Then the only question will be how Gross spins the inevitable capitulation of the re-hypocrisy trade, validating that he, in a narrow sense, and PIMCO in a broad one, is perhaps the biggest cog in the very system that Bill spends so many hours writing letters about and complaining against. But yes, even that won’t be all that surprising to us. After all, in this bizarro world absolutely everything is now priced in.
- Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security now account for 44% of total federal spending and are steadily rising.
- Previous Congresses (and Administrations) have relied on the assumption that we can grow our way out of this onerous debt burden.
- Unless entitlements are substantially reformed, the U.S. will likely default on its debt; not in conventional ways, but via inflation, currency devaluation and low to negative real interest rates.
The greatest financial (and economic) collapse in world history is well on its way.
The bankster bailouts, stimulus package and unprecedented deficit spending have caused the ultimate bubble and it is ready to burst.
This is the Greatest Depression.
Bill Gross’ decisions look certainly like common sense, BUT his ‘perfect timing history’ is pretty odd and he must be trading on insider information.
(Reuters) – The world’s largest bond fund has gone ultra bearish on the United States, dumping all of its U.S. government-related debt holdings.
The move by Bill Gross’s $236.9 billion PIMCO Total Return fund completed last month comes in the wake of a vicious Treasury market sell-off and just days after he questioned who will buy Treasuries once the Federal Reserve halts its latest round of bond purchases in June.
Gross, who also helps oversee a $1.1 trillion investment portfolio as PIMCO’s co-chief investment officer, has repeatedly warned against U.S. deficit spending and its inflationary impact, which undermine the value of government debt and push up yields as investors demand more compensation for risk.
Over the last five months, worries over the ballooning U.S. budget gap estimated at $1.645 trillion for 2011, political stalemate in Washington over how to narrow it and inflationary fears have all contributed to a steep sell-off in Treasuries. The benchmark 10-year note has seen its yield, which moves inversely to price, rise more than one percentage point since early October to 3.46 percent by Wednesday’s close.
Gross expects further carnage. Just last week, he told Reuters Insider that a 4.0 percent yield for 10-year notes is a “rational expectation” if the Fed “disappears as the buyer of last resort.”
DoubleLine’s Jeff Gundlach appeared on CNBC earlier, and among other things, the muni market was discussed. It appears that the fund manager whom many consider to be roughly in the same ballpark as Howard Marks when it comes to fixed income investing is very much in Meredith Whitney’s camp when it comes to his outlook on muni market prospects.
Asked by Faber if he believes that munis are ultimately going the way subprime securities did, Gundlach responds “If by that you mean lower, the answer is yes. If you mean crashing, I am agnostic on that.” And for all those who love taking out their actuarial tables and their historical default data to refute what is simply common sense, Gundlach has a few words as well: “I don’t think you need to know what the default rates are going to be, or need to know how low low is, munis are going to go down.
There are going to be other shoes to drop. There might be so many it looks like Imelda Marcos’ closet when all the shoes drop because all the states have to deal with this stuff.… Between here and the endgame lies the valley and the valley is full of fear. And I think the muni market is going to go down by at least 15 to 20%. At least.”
As for Kaminsky relentless advocacy of munis, this time coming out with the always disingenuous “hold to maturity” defense, Gundlach simply made a mockery of that whole spiel: “You know what the definition of an investor? It is a trader who is underwater. People say they hold to maturity until they get scared and sell. It gets scary when the prices start to drop. The fear factor here is going to be palpable.”
Treasuries “Most Overvalued” Bonds, Bill Gross Says: Beware End of QE2
This week marks the 2-year anniversary of the 2009 stock market bottom, but there’s little celebrating among retail investors. General speaking, individual investors fled from the stock market in 2008 and 2009 for the perceived safety of the bond market, a trend which didn’t abate until late 2010.
But with yields rising and concerns mounting about budget deficits at all levels of government, the question begs: Are bonds still safe?
If by “bonds” you mean U.S. Treasuries, the answer is a resounding “no”, according to Bill Gross, founder and co-CIO of PIMCO, which has about $1.2 trillion of assets under management.
“The Treasury market typifies perhaps the most overvalued area of the bond market,” Gross says.
In the accompanying video, Gross discusses the theme of his most recent monthly strategy piece: “Who will buy Treasuries when the Fed doesn’t?”
Specifically, Gross worries about the end of the Fed’s QE2 program, slated for June 30. “If someone has been buying $1.5 trillion worth of Treasuries and now doesn’t buy $1.5 trillion worth of Treasuries, it’ll affect yields on the upside.”
‘D-Day’ for Debt