Jul 31

Related info:

- The Shocking Reason Putin Isn’t Worried About The $50 Billion Yukos Ruling:

“There is a war coming in Europe,” he said. “Do you really think this matters?”


- Top Financial Experts Say World War 3 Is Coming … Unless We Stop It (Washington’s Blog, July 30, 2014):

Nouriel Roubini, Kyle Bass, Hugo Salinas Price, Charles Nenner, James Dines, Jim Rogers, David Stockman, Marc Faber, Jim Rickards, Paul Craig Roberts, Martin Armstrong, Larry Edelson, Gerald Celente and Others Warn of Wider War

Paul Craig Roberts – former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President Reagan, former editor of the Wall Street Journal, listed by Who’s Who in America as one of the 1,000 most influential political thinkers in the world, PhD economist – wrote an article yesterday about the build up of hostilities between the U.S. and Russia titled, simply: “War Is Coming”.  In the article, Roberts notes: Continue reading »

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Apr 13

-The Entire Economy Is a Ponzi Scheme (ZeroHedge, April 13, 2013):

Bill Gross, Nouriel Roubini, Laurence Kotlikoff, Steve Keen, Michel Chossudovsky, the Wall Street Journal and many others say that our entire economy is a Ponzi scheme.

Former Reagan budget director David Stockman just agreed:


YouTube Added: 10.04.2013

So did a top Russian con artist and mathematician.

Even the New York Times’ business page asked, “Was [the] whole economy a Ponzi scheme?

In fact – as we’ve noted for 4 years (and here and here) – the banking system is entirely insolvent. And so are most countries. The whole notion of one country bailing out another country is a farce at this point. The whole system is insolvent.

As we noted last year: Continue reading »

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Feb 09

- Currency Wars Often Lead to Trade Wars … Which In Turn Can Devolve Into Hot Wars (ZeroHedge, Feb 8, 2013):

Currency War → Trade War → Hot War?

According to numerous high-level insiders, the global currency war is accelerating: Continue reading »

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Feb 24

- ‘Gold Bullion or Cash’ Shows Buffett, Roubini, Krugman Mistaken; Faber, Rogers, Bass, Einhorn, Gross Correct (ZeroHedge, Feb. 25, 2012)

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Dec 15

Update:

- The Gold Sell Off Is Likely Coming To An End As Negative Gold Lease Rates Collapse

Related info:

- JP Morgan Crashed MF Global to Avert COMEX Failure, They Stole All The Accounts That Were Going To Take Delivery – (Jim Rogers: QE Has Never Stopped – QE 3 Is Operation Twist)

- Jim Rogers: QE NEVER STOPPED – The Fed Is Lying About QE 3 – Rising Money Supply Proves There Is QE 3 – On MF Global (Video)


- Roubini Asks of ‘Goldbugs’ on Twitter “Where is 2,000?” – Ignores Academic Research (ZeroHedge/Gold Core, Dec. 14, 2011):

Gold is trading at USD 1,626.10, EUR 1,261.20, GBP 1,067.30, CHF 1,557.40, JPY 129,550 and AUD 1,643.0 per ounce.

Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1,635.00, GBP 1,055.32, and EUR 1,255.18 per ounce.

Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,665.00, GBP 1,068.75, and EUR 1,262.22 per ounce.


Gold in USD – 1 Yr (100, 144, 200 DMA – yellow line at $1,618/oz)

Gold is marginally higher in most currencies today and bargain hunters are beginning to buy after the recent price falls. The falls were due to recent dollar strength, liquidity issues in the financial system and weak technicals.

Continue reading »

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Jun 13

See also:

- Greece: Default Is Inevitable

- Germany’s Rating Agency Feri Downgrades US Government Bonds: AAA to AA!

- China’s Rating Agency: ‘In Our Opinion The United States Has Already Been Defaulting’

- St. Louis Federal Reserve President Sees US Default As Big Global Risk (Reuters)


- Roubini Says a ‘Perfect Storm’ May Converge on the Global Economy in 2013 (Bloomberg, Jun 13, 2011):

A “perfect storm” of fiscal woe in the U.S., a slowdown in China, European debt restructuring and stagnation in Japan may converge on the global economy, New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said.

There’s a one-in-three chance the factors will combine to stunt growth from 2013, Roubini said in a June 11 interview in Singapore. Other possible outcomes are “anemic but OK” global growth or an “optimistic” scenario in which the expansion improves.

“There are already elements of fragility,” he said. “Everybody’s kicking the can down the road of too much public and private debt. The can is becoming heavier and heavier, and bigger on debt, and all these problems may come to a head by 2013 at the latest.”

Continue reading »

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Mar 13

See also:

- Gasoline Cost to Jump $700 For Average US Household

- Speculators Anticipate Even More Powerful Move In Oil Prices Than In Summer Of 2008 When Crude Hit $150


Nouriel Roubini, the economist who correctly predicted the global financial crisis, warned on Thursday that some advanced economies could experience a double dip recession if the price of oil climbs to $140 a barrel.

“It the turmoil in the Middle East becomes much worse and the price of oil reaches $140-150 a barrel then the risk of a double dip recession increases,” Roubini said in a keynote speech here at MIPIM, the world’s annual gathering of real estate professionals.

World oil prices fell back Thursday after spiking sharply higher a day earlier, with New York’s main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in April, dropped 32 cents to $104.06 a barrel. Brent North Sea crude for April shed 51 cents to $115.43.

Several analysts have forecast oil could again reach the record $147 it set July 2008 before the onset of the global financial crisis if unrest spreads through the Middle East.

Continue reading »

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Mar 08

Washington’s Blog strives to provide real-time, well-researched and actionable information.  George – the head writer at Washington’s Blog – is a busy professional and a former adjunct professor.



I heard a recent talk by Richard Wolff – Professor of Economics Emeritus at the University of Massachusetts in Amherst (PhD in Economics from Yale) – where Wolff said that 97% of all U.S. mortgages are either written or guaranteed by the government.

As Bloomberg explained last August:

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-controlled companies that issued and guaranteed more than 71 percent of mortgage-backed bonds last year. Between those companies and Ginnie Mae, which guarantees loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration, the government backed nearly 97 percent of U.S. mortgages in 2009.

There are supposedly plans in Washington to wind down Fannie and Freddie. Critics say that would destroy the “recovery” in housing.

If continuing to throw money at Fannie and Freddie would stabilize the economy, I might be for it – even though it is not free market capitalism. I am not wed to either liberal or conservative ideologies, and am instead simply motivated to do whatever will work to stabilize the economy and help the most people.

But as I noted in January:

Most independent experts say that the government’s housing programs have been a failure. That’s too bad, given that the housing slump is now – according to Zillow’s – worse than during the Great Depression.

Indeed, PhD economists John Hussman and Dean Baker, fund manager and financial writer Barry Ritholtz and New York Times’ writer Gretchen Morgenson say that the only reason the government keeps giving billions to Fannie and Freddie is that it is really a huge, ongoing, back-door bailout of the big banks.

Many also accuse Obama’s foreclosure relief programs as being backdoor bailouts for the banks. (See this, this, this and this). Continue reading »

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Mar 05

Related info:

- $2 Trillion Debt Crisis Threatens to Bring Down 100 US Cities Next Year

- Meredith Whitney: US Government Will Have to Bailout States in Next 12 Months


Buyers of bonds issued by US states and local authorities are being ‘Pollyannaish’ in ignoring the state of their finances


Nouriel Roubini’s consulting firm predicts substantial, but not system-threatening, defaults in the US municipal bonds market. Photograph: Sony Pics/Everett/Rex Features

US states and local governments could default on $100bn (£60bn) of their debts over the next five years, according to a report from the consulting firm founded by economist Nouriel Roubini.

The report follows dire predictions of a wide-scale collapse in the US’s $2.7tn municipal bonds market by Meredith Whitney, the analyst who was among the first to warn of the 2008 banking crisis.

Roubini Global Economics’ forecast is less gloomy than Whitney’s, but it warns that investors are being “Pollyannaish” in dismissing the serious problems in the market.

“The municipal bond market has generated tremendous debate in the past months, with Cassandras predicting another ‘sub-prime’ disaster, while apologists (often with vested interests) claim there is little justification for these warnings,” write the authors of the Roubini report, David Nowakowski and Prajakta Bhide. They conclude that while investors do face $100bn in defaults, the problems will not prove “systemic in nature” and will not “infect the financial system, though they will dampen economic recovery.”

Continue reading »

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Feb 18


Prof. Nouriel Roubini

- Roubini’s Next Crisis Is Scary Food for Thought (Bloomberg):

Yet the economic consequences of food prices pale in comparison with the social ones. Nowhere could the fallout be greater than Asia, where a critical mass of those living on less than $2 a day reside. It might have major implications for Asia’s debt outlook. It may have even bigger ones for leaders hoping to keep the peace and avoid mass protests.

It’s not hyperbole when Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economist who predicted the U.S. financial crisis, says surging food and energy costs are stoking emerging-market inflation that’s serious enough to topple governments. Hosni Mubarak over in Egypt can attest to that.

Side Effects

It’s important to begin considering the side effects. The United Nations reckons countries spent at least $1 trillion on food imports in 2010, with the poorest paying as much as 20 percent more than in 2009. These increases are just getting started. In January, world food prices rose to another record on higher dairy, sugar and grain costs.

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Jan 28

Stewardship of the global economy is in disarray due to a vacuum of leadership, senior economists have warned.

Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University, and Sir Martin Sorrell, chief executive of the media group WPP, lamented a lack of joined-up global leadership, describing co-ordinated efforts to address trade imbalances, capital flows, water resources, immigration and climate change as “G Zero”.

“There is complete disagreement and disarray. That’s the sense of the G Zero,” Mr Roubini said, explaining the new buzzword at the World Economic Forum’s annual conference in the Swiss resort of Davos.

“There is no agreement on anything. We are in a world where there is no leadership,” he added.

Continue reading »

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Sep 05

Just that there never was a defense. This entire financial crisis has been engineered.

This will also not be a double-dip recession, but the Greatest Depression ever.


The United States, Japan and large parts of Europe have exhausted their policy arsenal, leaving them defenceless against a double-dip recession as recovery slows to ‘stall speed’.

Nouriel Roubini said the US growth rate was likely to fall below 1pc in the second half of the year
Nouriel Roubini said the US growth rate was likely to fall below 1pc in the second half of the year Photo: BLOOMBERG

“The US has run out of bullets,” said Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University, and one of a caste of luminaries with grim forecasts at the annual Ambrosetti conference on Lake Como.

“More quantitative easing (bond purchases) by the Federal Reserve is not going to make any difference. Treasury yields are already down to 2.5pc yet credit spreads are widening again. Monetary policy can boost liquidity but it can’t deal with solvency problems,” he told Europe’s policy elite.

Dr Roubini said the US growth rate was likely to fall below 1pc in the second half of the year, despite the biggest stimulus in history: a cut in interest rates from 5pc to zero, a budget deficit of 10pc of GDP, and $3 trillion to shore up the financial system.

The anaemic pace compares with rates of 4pc-6pc at this stage of recovery in normal post-war recoveries.

Continue reading »

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May 18

nouriel-roubini
Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business. (Bloomberg)

May 18 (Bloomberg) — The crisis engulfing the euro area is not over yet as Greece remains the “tip of an iceberg,” New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said.

“It’s not over,” Roubini said in an interview with BBC radio broadcast today. “What we’re facing right now in the eurozone is a second stage of a typical financial crisis.”

The European Union’s 750 billion-euro ($931 billion) rescue package to stop contagion from Greece hasn’t calmed the markets while questions remain about whether governments are strong enough to implement the austerity measures required, Roubini said. The European Union said today it has transferred the first instalment of emergency loans to Greece, one day before 8.5 billion euros of bonds come due. Continue reading »

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Apr 28

‘Spain is worse than Greece.’

nouriel-roubini-001
Prof. Nouriel Roubini

- Roubini on Greece (Reuters):

Meanwhile, Tony Barber has already come to the conclusion that as far as Greece is concerned, “the political conditions for extra financial help from Germany just do not exist”.

Nouriel, of course, takes that kind of thinking to its logical conclusion, and kicked off the panel by announcing that it was just in time: “in a few days,” he said, “there might not be a eurozone for us to discuss.” There’s no way that Greece can implement the 10% spending cut it needs to do in order to stop its debt spiralling out of control at current interest rates — and even if it did, the economic effects would be disastrous.

Nouriel’s base case, then, is Argentina 2001: after all, Greece has a much higher debt-to-GDP ratio, much higher deficit-to-GDP ratio, and much higher current-account deficit than Argentina had back then. And if that’s the base case, there’s no way that Greek debt should be trading anywhere near its current levels.

Of course, this being Nouriel, it goes downhill from there: if Greece is worse than Argentina, he says, then Spain is worse than Greece. Its housing bubble and bust has left the banking sector much weaker than Greece’s; its unemployment situation, especially with the under-30 crowd, is much worse than Greece’s; and the cost of any Spain bailout would be so much more enormous than the cost of a Greek bailout as to be almost unthinkable. The only thing that Spain has going for it is that it isn’t quite at the edge of the abyss yet; if it gets its political act together and implements tough fiscal and structural reforms now, it can save itself. But clearly no one saw that happening, given Spain’s political history over the past 20 years.

Apr 27, 2010 22:14 EDT

See also:

- Greece: Bondholders May Lose $265 Billion as S&P Sees 70% Loss (Bloomberg)

- Standard & Poor’s Downgrades Greece’s Credit Rating to Junk (Bloomberg)

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Jan 30

Related article:

- US: GDP Mirage – The Last Hurrah:

Digging beneath the surface there is nothing to cheer about in the GDP numbers. Moreover, this weakness is in the face of the largest stimulus measures the world has ever seen, not just in the US, but globally. Money supply in China is growing at 30% and housing bubbles are likely to pop in Australia, Canada, and the UK. Problems in Greece, Spain, and Iceland continue to mount.

GDP is a mirage of sand blowing in the wind. So is global growth. It is a mistake to believe government spending can possibly provide a solid foundation for a lasting recovery.


nouriel-roubini

Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) — New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who anticipated the financial crisis, called the fourth quarter surge in U.S. economic growth “very dismal and poor” because it relied on temporary factors.

Roubini said more than half of the 5.7 percent expansion reported yesterday by the government was related to a replenishing of inventories and that consumption depended on monetary and fiscal stimulus. As these forces ebb, growth will slow to just 1.5 percent in the second half of 2010, he said.

“The headline number will look large and big, but actually when you dissect it, it’s very dismal and poor,” Roubini told Bloomberg Television in an interview at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “I think we are in trouble.”

Roubini said while the world’s largest economy won’t relapse into recession, unemployment will rise from the current 10 percent, posing social and political challenges. Continue reading »

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Nov 28

Update:

- Dubai World Unit Faces Default Test Monday With Bond Payment (Wall Street Journal):

DUBAI (Zawya Dow Jones)–Debt-laden Dubai World’s unit Jebel Ali Free Zone Authority, or Jafza, faces on Monday a coupon payment on a 7.5 billion U.A.E dirham ($2.04 billion) Islamic bond in the first key test of whether it will default.

- Abu Dhabi to aid Dubai “case by case”: official (Reuters):

ABU DHABI (Reuters) – Abu Dhabi, capital of the United Arab Emirates and one of the world’s top oil exporters, will “pick and choose” how to assist its debt-laden neighbor Dubai, a senior Abu Dhabi official said on Saturday.

“We will look at Dubai’s commitments and approach them on a case-by-case basis. It does not mean that Abu Dhabi will underwrite all of their debts,” the official told Reuters by telephone.

- Japanese banks’ exposure to Dubai at JPY100 bln -Nikkei (Reuters):

Nov 28 (Reuters) – Japanese financial institutions, including three major banks, face loan exposures of about 100 billion yen ($1.16 billion) in Dubai, the Nikkei business daily said.

- Dubai debt woes may hit U.S. property market (Reuters):

“This downturn has had more of a global impact,” said Tony Ciochetti, chairman of Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for Real Estate in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

“Dubai may have to unload some very prestigious properties at distressed prices and this will drive the price of all commercial real estate lower,” wrote Richard Bove, a banking analyst at Rochdale Securities in Lutz, Florida.


the-atlantis-hotel-in-dubai
The Atlantis hotel in Dubai.

Dubai or not Dubai — that is the question. Dubai’s sorta-kinda default (a state-owned enterprise seeking a rescheduling of its debts) is, by itself, not that big of a deal. But who else looks like Dubai? What kind of omen is this for the next stage in the financial crisis?

As far as I can tell, there are three ways to look at it — three stories, if you like, about what Dubai means.

First, there’s the view that this is the beginning of many sovereign defaults, and that we’re now seeing the end of the ability of governments to use deficit spending to fight the slump. That’s the view being suggested, if I understand correctly, by the Roubini people and in a softer version by Gillian Tett.

Alternatively, you can see this as basically just another commercial real estate bust. Either you view Dubai World as nothing special, despite sovereign ownership, as Willem Buiter does; or you think of the emirate as a whole as, in effect, a highly leveraged CRE investor facing the same problems as many others in the same situation.

Finally, you can see Dubai as sui generis. And really, there has been nothing else quite like it.

At the moment, I’m leaning to a combination of two and three. For what it’s worth (not much), US bond prices are up right now, suggesting that the Dubai thing hasn’t raised expectations of default.

Continue reading »

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Aug 31

Nouriel Roubini also said in May 13, 2009:
“Today, the United States is in a similar position. It is running huge budget and trade deficits, and is relying on the kindness of restless foreign creditors who are starting to feel uneasy about accumulating even more dollar assets. The resulting downfall of the dollar may be only a matter of time.” Source: The New York Times


nouriel-roubini
Nouriel Roubini is a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of RGE Monitor, an economic consultancy firm.

In a new essay in Forbes, Nouriel Roubini writes:

Net public debt is going to double as a share of GDP between 2008 and 2014. Even using the very optimistic forecasts of the Congressional Budget Office, which anticipate growth of around 4% over the next few years, the net debt burden will rise from 40% of GDP to 80%–that’s an increase in the debt stock of about $9 trillion. The interest charge alone on that increased debt will be in the region of $300 billion to $400 billion a year, which in turn may mean more borrowing to pay the interest if primary deficits are not reduced. When governments reach the point where they are borrowing to pay the interest on their borrowing they are coming dangerously close to running a sovereign Ponzi scheme.

Ponzi schemes have a way of ending unhappily…

Continue reading »

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May 15

The Chinese yuan is preparing to overtake the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, economist Nouriel Roubini has warned.

Professor Roubini, of New York University’s Stern business school, believes that while such a major change is some way off, the Chinese government is laying the ground for the yuan’s ascendance.

Known as “Dr Doom” for his negative stance, Prof Roubini argues that China is better placed than the US to provide a reserve currency for the 21st century because it has a large current account surplus, focused government and few of the economic worries the US faces.

In a column in the New York Times, Prof Roubini warns that with the proposal for a new international reserve currency via the International Monetary Fund, Beijing has already begun to take steps to usurp the greenback.

Continue reading »

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Mar 26

Yes, this is a bear-market rally and it will end.



Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University, pauses during an interview in Hong Kong, on March 3, 2009. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg News

March 26 (Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks will fall and the government will nationalize more banks as the economy contracts through the end of 2009, said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted last year’s economic crisis.

“The stock market is a bit ahead of the real macroeconomic and financial news,” Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business and the chairman of consulting firm Roubini Global Economics, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in London today. “We’ll have some major banks going belly up that will need to be taken over.”

The global equity rebound in March that sent the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its best monthly advance in 17 years is a “bear-market rally” and U.S. Treasury yields will “remain relatively low” as investors flock to the safest assets, Roubini said. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s new plan to remove toxic debt from financial companies won’t be enough for insolvent banks, he said.

Continue reading »

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Feb 16

Roubini is definitely not the only one that has forecasted the crisis and many others offered better solutions, but the government ignored them, because their solutions have been quite the opposite of the catastrophic policies favored by the government . Soon it will not matter anymore what the government and the Fed are doing, because it is too late. So far the government and the Fed have turned a recession, that would have healed the economy, into the Greatest Depression.


Tim Geithner must nationalise some of America’s biggest banks and take the total toll of the US bail-out to around $2 trillion, according to one of the world’s most prominent economists.

Nouriel Roubini – the man feted with having foreseen the financial crisis before almost any of his peers – has warned that the US Treasury Secretary must go significantly further than his detail-light bail-out plan delivered last week, and argues that the Obama administration should move swiftly to take public ownership of those major US banks which are failing.

Professor Roubini, who worked with Mr Geithner in the Clinton administration, told The Daily Telegraph: “Many US banks are insolvent, even the major ones.” While nationalisation is “a politically- charged decision” which needs to handled carefully, he said it needs to take place “sooner rather than later” for the sake of the wider economy.

Professor Roubini calculated that, on top of the existing $700bn (£491bn) of American taxpayers’ money allocated to solving the banking crisis, Mr Geithner may need to ask the US Congress for between $1,000bn and $1,250bn in extra funds. “Sooner rather than later, they’ll need more money,” he added.

Prof Roubini, professor of economics and international business at NYU Stern, New York University’s business school, is highly critical of Mr Geithner’s bail-out plan, which he unveiled to much market chagrin last Tuesday.

Continue reading »

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