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– The Fate of The Tech Bubble Is In The Hands Of Just One Company (ZeroHedge, April 24, 2015):
With the Nasdaq sitting at new highs having finally eclipsed the previous record of 5,048 set in March of 2000 and with consumers not-so-eagerly awaiting their chance to get in on the supposed wave of the wearables future by purchasing their very own Apple Watch, we learn that the fate of the tech bubble now rests entirely on the shoulders of Tim Cook because as FactSet notes, “blended Q1 Y/Y EPS growth for the Information Technology sector is 0.7% [but] excluding Apple, the blended earnings growth rate for the sector would fall to -5.1%.”
That rather disconcerting statistic makes this the scariest chart in the world for tech investors:
And as it turns out, it’s not just the tech space. Y/Y EPS growth for the entire S&P 500 is expected to come in at -2.8% — excluding Apple knocks more than a full percentage point off the already negative results: “The blended earnings decline for the entire S&P 500 is -2.8%. Excluding Apple, the blended earnings decline for the S&P 500 would increase to -3.9%.”
In other words, the market better hope there are a lot of these people out there:
– Dow Drops 1500 Points In 3 Weeks, Nasdaq Enters ‘Correction’ As VIX Breaks 30 (ZeroHedge, Oct 15, 2014):
From 17,350 intraday highs “proving the recovery is here,” we are 1500 points down just 3 weeks later. The Nasdaq just fell 10.5% from its highs, officially in correction. VIX broke above 30. Perhaps, just perhaps, the gap to fundamentals is finally about to be filled…
– And The Nasdaq Breaks (Again) … (ZeroHedge, Oct 13, 2014):
Last night it was the Australian stock exchange’s trade-reporting system that broke… today, amid minimal liquidity, the Nasdaq’s trade-reporting system has glitched…
- *NASDAQ TRADE REPORTING FACILITY MAY BE HAVING SOME DELAYS
From the article:
When one fund’s liquidation of a part of their portfolio can drop the Nasdaq by 2%, it should be clear to everyone (including Janet and here friends at The Eccles Building) that the stock market ‘stability’ is anything but “contained.”
– Was This The Selloff Catalyst: $10+ Billion BlueCrest Capital Unwinding Positions, Fires PMs (ZeroHedge, Sep 26, 2014):
Yesterday’s plunge in stocks (and credit markets) was pinned on several catalysts from Russia to Fed speak, but the ‘liquidations’ explanation appeared to make most sense and now we have a candidate for the culprit. As The Wall Street Journal reports, $10.6 billion BlueCrest Capital Management LLP, one of Europe’s largest hedge-funds (and best known for its credit market expertise), laid off several stock traders in the U.S. Thursday and began liquidating their investments, according to people familiar with the matter, not long after it aggressively expanded into equities.
– NASDAQ: Classic Head-and-Shoulders and Blow-Off Top? (Washington’s Blog, May 3, 2014)
– Russell 2000 Loses Critical Support As MoMo Massacre Accelerates (ZeroHedge, April 28, 2014):
Momentum, or high-growth hope, stocks are making fresh lows of the February Tarullo Top as this morning’s mysterious buying panic sparked by housing data has relapsed into aggressive selling pressure. The Pharma frenzy is fading fast also. The Russell 2000 has broken below its 200DMA once again – a critical support level – and Nasdaq and Trannies are making new lows from Friday. All US equity indices are now in the red for April.
Biotechs not getting a bounce from the Pharma frenzy as momos just keep tumbling from Tarullo’s top…
– What In The World Is Happening To The Nasdaq? (Economic Collapse, April 7, 2014):
All of a sudden, the Nasdaq is absolutely tanking. On Monday, it fell more than 1 percent after dropping 3.6 percent on Thursday and Friday combined. At this point, the Nasdaq is off to the worst start to a year that we have seen since 2008, and we all remember what happened back then. So why is this happening? In recent years, the Nasdaq has been ground zero for “dotcom bubble 2.0”. The hottest stocks in the entire world are on the Nasdaq – we are talking about stocks like Yahoo, Netflix, Apple, Tesla, Google and Facebook. Those stocks have gone to absolutely incredible heights, but now they are starting to fall. Some are blaming insider selling, and without a doubt the “smart money” is starting to flee the stock market. Just check out this chart. Others are blaming low expectations for first-quarter earnings or the tapering of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve. But whatever is causing this decline, it is starting to get alarming. The Nasdaq just experienced its largest three day fall since November 2011.
No stock can resist gravity forever. What goes up must eventually come down. This is especially true for stock prices that become grotesquely distorted.
– The Day That BTFD Failed (Zerohedge, April 6, 2014):
We noted on Friday that something happened in the US stock market that day that has not been seen since the Fed unveiled QE4EVA. It went quietly under the radar of the mainstream media; talking-heads did not mention it; and strategists shrugged it off. What happened? BTFD Failed… and, as BofAML’s Macneil Curry warns, popular trades are in trouble (bad news for equity bulls and treasury bears).
As a gentle reminder, the main investing thesis of the last few years has been BTFD (because buying the fucking dip has worked every time in the past, it will continue to work – therefore BFTD, BTFATH, and BTFWWIII)…
But – for the first time in 18 months… BTFD failed on Friday… (each dip was met with higher highs)…
Until Friday.. when the Nasdaq, having “dipped” to the 100DMA was “bought” back above the 50DMA but failed to make new highs and in fact made new lows…
– High Frequency Trading: All You Need To Know (ZeroHedge, April 6, 2014):
In the aftermath of Michael Lewis’ book “Flash Boys” there has been a renewed surge in interest in High Frequency Trading. Alas, much of it is conflicted, biased, overly technical or simply wrong. And since we can’t assume that all those interested have been followed our 5 year of coverage of a topic that finally has earned its day in the public spotlight, below is a simple summary for everyone.
– Momos Mauled: Nasdaq Crashes Most Since 2011, Stocks Tumble From Record High (Zerohedge, April 4, 2014):
The jobs number expectation had been falling for a few days into the print this morning and despite the desperate efforts of every status-quo-hugging TV talking-head’s Goldilocks scenario, it was not a good report – it missed low expectations and it seems the market is realizing (having been told the bar is very high for an un-taper) that the Fed will not rescue it any time soon. GDP expectations are also tumbling and thus the hope-driven hyper-growth stocks have been monkey-hammered. This is the worst swing for the Nasdaq since Dec 2011 (with Russell, Dow, and Nasdaq -1% YTD). Momos and Biotechs were blamed but this was broad-based selling as JPY carry was unwound in a hurry. Gold rallied above $1300 (+8.1% YTD) as bond yield ripped lower for 5Y’s biggest daily drop in 10 weeks (short-end -4bps on the week). VIX pushed back above 14 (but it was clear derisking exposure – as opposed to hedging positions – was the order of the day).
“Not” Off The Lows…
But gold winning Year-to-Date…
– First Nasdaq Stock Flash-Crashes, Now The Nasdaq Index Is Crashing (Zerohedge, April 4, 2014):
UPDATE: Nasdaq negative year-to-date; Biotechs 3-month lows. AMZN, FB, TWTR, NFLX, P all in Bear market territory
Shortly after 946amET, the stock of The Nasdaq OMX Group suddenly dropped in a mini-flash-crash from from 35.98 to 35.00 in just over 2 seconds on approximately 100,000 shares. As Nanex notes, this is what high-frequency-trading liquidity looks like. But now, an hour or so later, the Nasdaq index and most especialy its Biotech and high-growth names are being crushed. Biotechs are near 3-month lows, Momos are down 16 to 18% since FOMC, and Nasdaq is about to go negative for the year.
– Who Just Dumped $220 Million Nasdaq Futures In 1 Second? (ZeroHedge, March 21, 2014):
At 10:27:21 ET, the Nasdaq 100 e-mini futures contract suddenly dropped on extreme activity as someone decided it was an opportune time to dump 3000 contracts or around $220 million notional. As Nanex notes, the ETF – QQQ – also collapsed (with over 1200 trades in 1 second) as bids and offers were crossed and markets went flash-crashy for a few tenths of a second. The questions is – who was it? Waddell & Reed?
YouTube Added: 22.08.2013
– Nasdaq market paralyzed by three-hour shutdown (Reuters, Aug 22, 2013):
Trading in thousands of U.S. stocks ground to a halt for much of Thursday after an unexplained technological problem shut down trading in Nasdaq securities, the latest prominent disruption in U.S. markets.
Nasdaq resumed trading at around 3:25 p.m. EDT (1925 GMT), after a roughly 3-hour, 11-minute shutdown of trading in Apple, Google, Microsoft and more than 3,000 other U.S. companies. The shutdown was the longest in recent memory.
“Any brokerage firm gets paid by executing orders,” said Sal Arnuk, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. “So yes, we are frustrated, and this hurts us, it hurts the market and it hurts public confidence.”
All traffic through Nasdaq stopped abruptly at 12:14:03 p.m. (1614 GMT). Trading in a single stock resumed at 3 p.m., and other stocks soon followed.
– In Case The Mainstream Media Didn’t Get The Memo, I Crush The Apple Reality Distortion Field On CNBC (ZeroHedge, Feb 13, 2013)
– Apple’s Flash Dump In The Last Second Of Trading Caught On Tape (ZeroHedge, Jan 25, 2013):
Sure, the retail “investors” are coming back into the “markets”… They are coming back in shifts. And just so they know what to expect, here is what happened to Apple stock in the last second of regular trading today, courtesy of Nanex. Unlike traditional flash crashes where the trade is an HFT error, or a few shares traded through the entire bid or offer stack, in this case it looks like a very premeditated unloading of some 800K shares (some $350 million worth) of AAPL in the last second, with the full knowledge it was shake the market. Why anyone would want (or wait until the very last second) to do that, while covering the offsetting ES short in the pair trade, to ramp the market into the close, is anyone’s guess.
– Apple Is No Longer The World’s Most Expensive Company (ZeroHedge, Jan 25, 2013):
Irony of all ironies; on the 1-year anniversary of AAPL replacing XOM as the world’s most-expensive market capitalized company, the incessant fall of the formerly invincible has dragged it back below XOM once again. This one-year of glory is disappointing as when MSFT managed to top XOM in 1998, it held on to the top-spot for almost 3 years before relinquishing it back to the company that runs the world’s most valuable limited resource.One-year on – and AAPL is now less than XOM once again…
– Goldman Sachs And The Big Hedge Funds Are Pushing Leverage To Ridiculous Extremes (Economic Collapse, Jan 14, 2013):
As stocks have risen in recent years, the big hedge funds and the “too big to fail” banks have used borrowed money to make absolutely enormous profits. But when you use debt to potentially multiply your profits, you also create the possibility that your losses will be multiplied if the markets turn against you. When the next stock market crash happens, and the gigantic pyramid of risk, debt and leverage on Wall Street comes tumbling down, will highly leveraged banks such as Goldman Sachs ask the federal government to bail them out? The use of leverage is one of the greatest threats to our financial system, and yet most Americans do not even really understand what it is. The following is a basic definition of leverage from Investopedia: “The use of various financial instruments or borrowed capital, such as margin, to increase the potential return of an investment.” Leverage allows firms to make much larger bets in the financial markets than they otherwise would be able to, and at this point Goldman Sachs and the big hedge funds are pushing leverage to ridiculous extremes. When the financial markets go up and they win on those bets, they can win very big. For example, revenues at Goldman Sachs increased by about 30 percent in 2012 and Goldman stock has soared by more than 40 percent over the past 12 months. Those are eye-popping numbers. But leverage is a double-edged sword. When the markets turn, Goldman Sachs and many of these large hedge funds could be facing astronomical losses.
Sadly, it appears that Wall Street did not learn any lessons from the financial crisis of 2008. Hedge funds have ramped up leverage to levels not seen since before the last stock market crash. The following comes from a recent Bloomberg article entitled “Hedge-Fund Leverage Rises to Most Since 2004 in New Year“…
– AAPL Trades Under $500 For First Time In 11 Months (ZeroHedge, Jan 14, 2013):
While the furious defense of $500 the second AAPL crossed under the psychological barrier – the first time it did so in regular trading since February 15, 2012 – was promptly launched as otherwise the hedge fund community, which as we reported two weeks ago, and as Bloomberg caught on today, is more levered and long than at any moment in the past 9 years and is mostly invested in AAPL, we expect this intervention to eventually succumb to the inevitable French military campaign conclusion, as not even every HFT algo programmed to lift every offer under $500 can delay the inevitable arrival of a very sad cashflow reality. As for the Bank of Israel which is now about 5% underwater on its AAPL cost basis: don’t worry – Ben will bail you out too.