Feb 17

Poll: Merkel Eclipsed By Arch-Federalist Schulz in Race For Chancellor

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Feb 16


The German ‘Anti-Trump’ That Could Beat Merkel

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Feb 06

As predicted.


Shock Poll Shows Merkel Losing Chancellorship If Elections Held Today; JPMorgan Stunned:

Overnight we reported that Germany’s default swaps spiked to the highest level since Brexit as a recent poll showed that Merkel’s lead in the polls had slid to multi-year lows ahead of Germany’s elections later in the year, provoking some concerns that a formerly unthinkable “tail risk” outcome was becoming more likely. However, according to new data unveiled today, Merkel’s headaches are only just starting, because in a brand new poll released this afternoon, the CDU would get 30% of the vote, while the suddenly resurgent SPD would get 31%. This means that the SPD’s new head, Martin Schulz, would enter any coalition talks as the leader of the largest party, hence becoming Chancellor, leading to a stunned reaction by JPMorgan.

Overnight we reported that Germany’s default swaps spiked to the highest level since Brexit as a recent poll showed that Merkel’s lead in the polls had slid to multi-year lows ahead of Germany’s elections later in the year, provoking some concerns that a formerly unthinkable “tail risk” outcome was becoming more likely. However, according to new data unveiled today, Merkel’s headaches are only just starting, because in a brand new poll released this afternoon, the CDU would get 30% of the vote, while the suddenly resurgent SPD would get 31%. This means that the SPD’s new head, Martin Schulz, would enter any coalition talks as the leader of the largest party, hence becoming Chancellor, leading to a stunned reaction by JPMorgan.

In a note released this afternoon by JPM’s Greg Fuzesi, the strategist writes that following the recent resignation of Sigmar Gabriel as leader and chancellor candidate of the SPD, there has been much attention on how his replacement Martin Schulz would perform. Having spent most of his career in the European Parliament, most recently as its president, and being relatively unknown in Germany, this is not easy to predict. In his first major TV interview, he was recently pressed to explain how exactly he differs from his predecessor Gabriel and also from Chancellor Merkel, and what his focus on fairness would mean in practice. This was not entirely straightforward for him. Continue reading »

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Feb 02


Angela Merkel Faces Challenge For Chancellorship

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Feb 22

European “Democracy” Full Frontal – EU Parliament Head Tells Italians Not To Vote For Silvio (ZeroHedge, Feb 21, 2013):

To say that Germany does not love Silvio Berlusconi would be an understatement. But not even we thought European “democracy” would stoop so low as to tell Italians not to bring Bunga back or else. As Reuters reports, the German president of the European Parliament, once compared to a Nazi concentration camp guard by former Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi, warned Italians on Thursday not to back the scandal-ridden media tycoon at the ballot box. Martin Schulz is the latest in a line of German politicians to express fears about a possible Berlusconi comeback largely due to worries he will halt Rome’s reform drive that has helped to lift investor confidence in the euro zone. “Silvio Berlusconi has already sent Italy into a tailspin with irresponsible behavior in government and personal escapades,” Schulz was quoted as saying in German daily Bild.

Ironically, as today’s PMI data confirm, it is somewhat hypocritical of Germany to accuse Italy of anything since in the Zero-Sum mercantilist union, it is only Germany, now that France has careened off the cliff, that benefits from everyone else’s misfortune. The irony is that Germany should be rooting for Silvio – after all they need that EURUSD some 1000 pips lower to boost German exports, and when all hell breaks loose with Italian bond spread, Germany will simply inject another €500 billion in current account liquidity via Target2 (even if it means crushing PIMCO and their long Italy bond position). To pretend that anything in Europe at this moment is about solidarity is hypocrisy of the nth degree. Continue reading »

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