For all the groundless, starry-eyed optimism permeating Europe’s bureaucratic corridors of the fading oligarchy these days (because this time is not like every other time that, too, was different), there has always existed one sure, never-fail antidote: Germany, which without fail has managed to ground Europe any time its delusion of grandure hit escape velocity. Sure enough, while all the statist soothsayers who threatened with armageddon if the outcome of the Italian elections happened to be precisely the one that transpired, were stuck in backpedal mode, and scrambling to calm nerves that all shall be well after all, one person who refuses to play by the script is Lars Feld, member of panel of economic advisers to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who in an interview with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung tomorrow says the euro crisis is to return shortly and “with a vengeance” as capital loss will lead to higher risk premiums for Italy’s interest rates.
The Italian economy would not find their way out of the recession, according to the pessimistic assessment by Lars Feld: “The sustainability of Italian public finances is in jeopardy. The euro crisis will therefore return shortly with a vengeance.”
While little has been said in the mainstream western press about the ongoing fiasco surrounding Siena’s Banca Monte dei Pasci, Italy’s third largest bank and the world’s oldest which may get its third bailout in three years- or even be nationalized – as soon as today, for fears that it may break the thin veneer of “recovery” in the European financial system, the situation on the ground in Italy is getting more serious by the minute, and will have implications on both next month’s general election, on Mario Monti, on Silvio Berlusconi, on frontrunner for the Prime Minister post Pier Luigi Bersani, and reach as far up as the head of the ECB – Mario Draghi.Several hours ago, on Saturday morning, the four-member board of the Bank of Italy – this time without its prior president Mario Draghi – met to consider the position of scandal-hit bank Monte dei Paschi di Siena and decide whether to authorize its request for 3.9 billion euros ($5.3 billion) of state loans.
Yesterday, the man planted by Goldman to be Italy’s unelected leader in November 2011, officially stepped down and shortly thereafter his government was dissolved in advance of the February 25, 2013 elections. Yet Monti, under whose helm Italy has been in deep recession since the middle of last year, where consumer spending is falling at its fastest rate since World War Two and unemployment has risen to a record high above 11 percent, and whose candidacy is vastly unpopular with the Italian population, moments ago generously offered to continue being Italy’s unelected leader: just the way Europe’s political masterclass and its central bankers want it, if not so much Italy’s people.
After all, the only thing that has stabilized in Europe, however briefly, is its peripheral bond market, which is merely a function of Draghi’s willingness to risk future monetary instability and runaway inflation in order to bring sovereign bond yields under control: yields which are only hit record highs because the local governments have proven time and again unable and unwilling to make hard structural reforms (and where austerity continues to be a widely misused synonym for government corruption and incompetence). And as long as yields represent not reality but the motives of a few unelected central-planners, nothing will truly change for the better in Europe.
The rumors have been flying around all morning, but now it’s news…
ITALY PRIME MINISTER MONTI RESIGNS, PRESIDENT SAYS – BBG
Italian credit spreads leaked wider all morning and EURUSD lower though the correlation to losing a technocrat is perhaps a stretch. And so the great “Mark-to-Monti” Goldman rotation (as described previously) is complete, with Goldman losing a technocratic scribe, who is no longer needed thanks to yet another Goldmanite now in charge of the ECB, but far more importantly, Goldman has now gained control over that most prized of central planner jewels: the Bank of England.
Gerald Celente, the founder of the Trends Research Institute, at the Marriott Hotel in Munich, Germany, on November 3rd, 2012. Celente was holding a presentation later on on the Internationale Edelmetall- und Rohstoffmesse, the largest precious metals conference in Europe. You can find Gerald Celente at trendsresearch.com and trendsjournal.com.
First, it was Greece who failed to stick with the “do not rock the boat until the US election” script so meticulously crafted by Tim Geithner, and now it is Italy’s turn as Europe threatens to come unhinged precisely in the week when complete peace and quiet is needed to avoid deflecting attention from the peak season of the US presidential theater. As Reuters reports, “Tens of thousands of people marched through Rome in a “No Monti Day” on Saturday, some throwing eggs and spraying graffiti to protest against austerity measures introduced by Prime Minister Mario Monti’s government. Appointed in November when Italy risked being sucked into the euro zone debt crisis, Monti has pushed through painful austerity measures to cut the country’s massive debt, including tax hikes, spending cuts and a pension overhaul. “We are here against Monti and his politics, the same politics as all over Europe, that brought Greece to its knees and that are destroying half of Europe, public schools, health care,” said demonstrator Giorgio Cremaschi… In another demonstration in northern Italy, a small group of protesters scuffled with police near where Monti was addressing a rally on the theme of family values.” Continue reading »
Nigel Farage, looking tanned and refreshed, is back and as he tells FOX Business in this brief clip “nothing has changed” from his views of Europe as the Titanic and its unelected officials dragging it down to the depths of the ocean. Citing Mario Monti specifically with his concerns over allowing politicians to ‘decide’ anything he notes the leader’s demeanor is “We must not let democracy interfere with our great Grand Project.” With European GDP negative, and group-hugs all around as Europeans are herded towards a European social state, Farage analogizes that “we are living in Noddyland” where economic reality and day-to-day life are as distant as they could be as he warns that they are becoming part of something that is increasingly resembling Communism. He dismisses the growing belief that “the state and government creates jobs” noting that “it doesn’t, it destroys them!” With two wrongs (Spain ad Italy) not making a right; Farage is clear that breaking up the EU is necessary now and it is critical to recognize that “you don’t get something for nothing” as Europe is increasingly de-industrialized.
Just because Italy’s 2 Year bond yield has plunged, bringing its cost of short term funding to manageable levels, if only for a day or two, it is suddenly “obvious” that it will not need Germany’s goodwill ever again. Sure enough…
An Italian newspaper owned by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi has caused controversy by printing a front page headline which said ‘Fourth Reich’ above a picture of German chancellor Angela Merkel.