Infinite Unknown

- Ron Paul On Bitcoin: “If I Can’t Put It In My Pocket, I Have Reservations” (ZeroHedge, April 23, 2013):

“You will not see economic growth until you liquidate the debt and liquidate the malinvestment out there,” is the hard truth that former Congressman Ron Paul lays on Bloomberg TV in this wide-ranging interview. Paul is concerned at “the erraticness of the dollar… and its devaluation,” explaining that, “people think the gold price up and down is a reflection of something wrong with gold; no, I say it is something wrong with the dollar.” The topic gravitates to inflation, which Paul explains is far from missing as, “Bond prices go up. Stocks are going up. Housing prices are starting to go back up again. Education costs are going up,” adding that, “CPI is not reliable.” Paul is buying gold, believes “we are in as much trouble as Greece,” and while fascinated by the free market nature of Bitcoin, he notes that while he doesn’t fully understand it, “if I can’t put it in my pocket, I have some reservations about that.”

Paul on whether he’s concerned about the drop in gold: Continue reading »

Tags: Ben Bernanke, Bitcoin, Bonds, Debt, Deflation, Dollar, Economy, Fed, Federal Reserve, Global News, Gold, Government, Inflation, Politics, Ron Paul, U.S.

- Food Inflation Everywhere, But Not A Bit In CPI (Yet) (ZeroHedge, April 10, 2013):

Reported U.S. food inflation has been a paltry 1.6% over the last 12 months, one of the lowest growth rates in food & beverage CPI since late 2010. However, ConvergEx’s Nick Colas notes that the severe drought in the Midwest over the summer of 2012 will likely drive up food costs this year 3-4% across the board, by the USDA’s estimates. These headline numbers, however, don’t accurately reflect the prices of the real “basket of goods” that we bring to the checkout counter every week at the grocery store. Consequently, Colas warns, the CPI report doesn’t necessarily mirror the increase in our grocery bill. Nor does it take into accountdifferent food choices (e.g. healthy vs. junk food), farm prices, or demographics, all of which the USDA publishes separately. The actual, visible inflation at the checkout counter may lead the American consumer to think – perhaps inaccurately – that overall CPI is rising or falling at a similar pace. For a more detailed, accurate reflection of food CPI, then, we have to aggregate all of these indicators to see how they compare to overall CPI. In short, inflationary expectations may well be set to rise dramatically in 2013: “shopping cart inflation” was upwards of 1.3% last month, almost double the 0.7% overall CPI.
Continue reading »

Tags: Economy, Food, Global News, Inflation, USDA

- Kyle Bass: “Japan Will Implode Under Weight Of Their Debt” (ZeroHedge, April 4, 2013):

As the fast-money flabber-mouths stare admiringly at the rise in nominal prices of Japanese (and the rest of the world ex-China) stock prices amid soaring sales of wheelbarrows following Kuroda’s ‘shock-and-awe’ last night, it is Kyle Bass who brings these surrealists back to earth with some cold-hard-facting. Out of the gate Bass explains the massive significance of what the Japanese are embarking on, “they are essentially doubling the monetary base by the end of 2104.”

It is a “Giant Experiment,” he warns, but when you are backed into a corner and your debts are north of 20 times your government tax revenue, “you’re already insolvent.” Simply put, Bass says they have to do something and they have to something big because they are “about to implode under the weight of their debt.” For a sense of the scale of the BoJ’s ‘experimentation’, Bass sums it up perfectly (and concerningly), “the BoJ is monetizing at a rate around 75% of the Fed on an economy that is one-third the size of the US!”

What they are trying to do is devalue the currency to attempt to become more competitive while holding their rates market flat – the economic zealots running the world’s central banks believe they can live in that Nirvana – and Bass believes that is not the case, as they will lose control of rates, since leaving the zone of insolvency is impossible now. His advice, “if you’re Japanese, spend! or take it out of your country. If you’re not, borrow in JPY and invest in productive assets.” Do not be long JPY or Japanese assets as he concludes with the reality of Japan’s “hollowed out” manufacturing industry and why USDJPY is less important that KRWJPY.

Tags: Bank of Japan, Bonds, Central Bank, Collapse, Debt, Economy, Global News, Government, Hyperinflation, Inflation, Japan, Politics, Quantitative Easing, Yen

YouTube

Description:

In this interview with investor Kyle Bass from Day 1 at AmeriCatalyst 6th of November 2011, in Austin, Texas, Bass discloses his discussion about the economic crisis with a senior from the Obama Administration. According to Kyle Bass the basic solution coming from this senior was: “We’re Just Going to Kill the Dollar”.

Killing the US Dollar in this context means keep printing more US Dollars in order to weaken the dollar to make exports cheaper through inflation. Massive inflation might be the answer for the Obama Administration, but in the process your purchasing power will be destroyed. And because the US Dollar is the world’s reserve currency the eventual impact of inflation would have an impact that would reach far beyond those holding US Dollar assets.

Thousands of paper currencies has come and gone over the years and there is no question if the dollar, or the euro for that sake, will have its value go to zero; the question is when?

Tags: Barack Obama, Economy, Fed, Federal Reserve, Global News, Government, Hedge Funds, Hyperinflation, Inflation, Kyle Bass, Obama administration, Politics, Quantitative Easing, U.S.

- Reality Check: The Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. Bananas (Sovereign Man, March 8, 2013):

Reporting from Santiago, Chile

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the key benchmarks of the US stock market, has soundly surpassed its all-time high. And most of the investing world is toasting their collective success and celebrating the recovery.

It’s a funny thing, really. Most investors only think in terms of ‘nominal’ numbers, i.e. Dow 14,000+ is 40% higher than Dow 10,000 (back in November 2009). But few think in terms of ‘real’ numbers… inflation-adjusted averages.

Everyone knows that inflation exists. We can all look back on prices from the past and realize instantly how much more expensive things have become. Conversely, though, most people don’t think about the stock market like this.

The reality is, though, that when you adjust for inflation, the Dow is well below its highs from over a decade ago. Continue reading »

Tags: Bananas, Beef, Dow Jones, Economy, Food, Food Prices, Global News, Inflation, Stock Market

- Humor: Greek ‘Inflation’ (ZeroHedge, March 8, 2013):

According to the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), Greek inflation eased in January to +0.1% – its lowest in 45 years. However, as ekathimerini notes, the prices for certain goods (like food, energy, phones, medicine) rose just a little more than that, leaving us with a simple question: ‘what’s Greek for hedonics?’

Tags: Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Government, Greece, Inflation, Politics

- Druckenmiller: “When You Get This Kind Of Rigging, It Will End Badly” (ZeroHedge, March 5, 2013):

When even Home Depot’s Ken Langone is questioning the reality of this rally (CEO of one of the best performing stocks since the Dow last traded here), you have to be a little concerned. However, it is Duquesne’s Stanley Druckenmiller’s point that with QE4EVA it is impossible to know when this will end but warns that “all the lobsters are in the pot” now as he notes that “if you print enough money, everything is subsidized – bonds, stocks, real estate.” He dismisses the notion of any sell-off in bonds for the same reason as the Fed is buying $85 bn per month (75-80% all off Treasury issuance). The Fed has cancelled all market signals (whether these are to Congress or market participants) and just as we did in the 1970s, we will find out about all the mal-investments sooner or later. “This is a big, big gamble,” he notes, “manipulating the most important price in all of free markets,” that ends one of only two ways, a mal-investment bust (as we saw in 2007-8) or full debt monetization and “off we go into inflation.”

“The Fed is printing a lot of money. They are forcing people into markets. You shouldn’t be buying securities because you’re forced to buy them by zero rates. you should buy them because you think they’re great value. They’re great value only relative to zero interest rates. they’re not great value on an absolute basis.”

“I don’t know when it’s going to end, but my guess is, it’s going to end very badly; and it’s going to end very badly because, again, when you get the biggest price in the world, interest rates, being manipulated you get a misallocation of resources and this is going to end in one of two ways – with a malinvestment bust which we got in ’07-’08 (we didn’t get inflation). We got a malinvestment bust because of the bubble that was created in housing. Or it could end with just monetizing the debt and off we go in inflation. So that’s a very binary outcome. they’re both bad.” Continue reading »

Tags: Barack Obama, Ben Bernanke, Bonds, Collapse, Debt, Economy, Fed, Federal Reserve, Global News, Government, Inflation, Obama administration, Politics, Quantitative Easing, U.S.

- Bernanke’s ‘Inflation’ Record (ZeroHedge, Feb 27, 2013):

Addressing a question yesterday, from Senator Bob Corker, on his “being the biggest dove since World War II” and the “degrading effects that he’s having on society,” Bernanke responded proudly that be believed his “inflation record is the best of any Federal Reserve Chairman in the post-war period.” Of course that is by his measure. We suggest, he and few of his transitory colleagues look at the chart below for a sense of just what his ‘dovishness’ looks like to the rest of the food- and energy-consuming world… or perhaps by ‘best’ he means ‘most’.

CORKER: So I think that, you know, I don’t think there’s any question that you would be the biggest dove, if you will, since World War II. I think it’s something you’re rather proud of…. Just wondering if you — if ya’ll talk at all in your meetings about the degrading effect that’s having on our society.

BERNANKE: You called me a dove. Well, maybe in some respects I am, but on the other hand, my inflation record is the best of any Federal Reserve Chairman in the post-war period, or at least one of the best, about two percent average inflation.

The Bernanke Era Inflation…

Tags: Economy, Fed, Federal Reserve, Global News, Government, Inflation, Politics, U.S.

- The Reflation Party Is Ending As China Withdraws Market Liquidity For First Time In Eight Months (ZeroHedge, Feb 19, 2013):

Since institutional memories are short, it is time to remind readers that it was the threat, and subsequent reality, of China overheating in the spring and summer of 2011 (when record high food prices sent the entire North African region in a state of coordinated revolt and gradually moved far east), when even the Great firewall of China could not block news of frequent break outs of localized violence from hungry and angry mobs, that halted and broke the spine of the great reflation trade then (and yes, 2013 has so far been a carbon copy replica of 2011 as we summarized in “It’s Deja Vu, All Over Again: This Time Is… Completely The Same“).

Furthermore, as only Zero Hedge forecast back in mid-2012, when ever other commentator was shouting over the rooftops that an RRR or interest rate cut out of Beijing was imminent, the PBOC would be the last to stimulate the market with monetary easing as it was well-aware that an entire developed world reflating at the same time would hit none other than China the fastest as the hot money flew straight into Shanghai. Just as it did in 2011. So instead China proceeded to engage in a series of daily reverse repos, or ultra-short term liquidity injections that prevented the advent of wholesale inflation: after all the Fed, the BOJ, the ECB and soon, the BOE, were doing it for them. And the last thing the country with the highest allotment of CPI, or book inflation, to food and energy can afford, is to let foreign central banks dictate its price level. After all, it has more than enough of its own.

Well, the Chinese New Year celebration is now over, the Year of the Snake is here, and those following the Shanghai Composite have lots to hiss about, as two out of two trading days have printed in the red. But a far bigger concern to not only those long the SHCOMP, but the “Great Reflation Trade – ver. 2013″, is that just as two years ago, China appears set to pull out first, as once again inflation rears its ugly head. And where the PBOC goes, everyone else grudgingly has to follow: after all without China there is no marginal growth driver to the world economy.

End result: China’s reverse repos, or liquidity providing operations, have ended after month of daily injections, and the first outright repo, or liquidity draining operation, just took place after eight months of dormancy.

From the WSJ:

Chinese authorities took a step to ease potential inflationary pressures Tuesday by using a key mechanism for the first time in eight months.

The move by the central bank to withdraw cash from the banking system is a reversal after months of pumping cash in. That cash flood was meant to reduce borrowing costs for businesses as the economy slowed last year—but recent data has shown growth picking up, along with the main determinants of inflation: housing and food prices.

Continue reading »

Tags: Bank of China, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Central Bank, China, ECB, Economy, Fed, Federal Reserve, Food, Food Prices, Global News, Government, Inflation, Politics, Yuan

- Forex Flash: The British pound is the next big devaluation story – UBS (Nasdaq, Feb 17, 2013):

Sterling is likely to be the next major currency that depreciates strongly, says Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy at UBS Macro Research.

“As central banks tolerate higher levels of inflation, the pound is set to weaken further across the board particularly against our favourite G4 currency, the US dollar” Mr. Mohi-uddin adds.

He concludes: “The GBP seems clearly at risk of following the yen and suffering the next large scale devaluation. As a result, we issued a recommendation that clients buy a six-month sterling put/US dollar call option with a strike of 1.4800.”

Tags: Bank of England, Central Bank, Currency War, ECB, Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Inflation, U.K.