Infinite Unknown

See also:

- Anglo Irish Bank losses are the worst in the entire world

• Moody’s cuts Ireland’s sovereign bond rating by one notch

• Move will add to fears over Europe’s debt crisis

• IMF pulled €20bn finance deal for Hungary at the weekend

Moody’s cut Ireland’s credit rating this morning, citing weaker growth prospects and the cost of rebuilding the country’s crippled banking system (The Guardian)

Credit ratings agency Moody’s has downgraded Ireland’s debt rating, adding to investor jitters about the state of Europe’s heavily indebted economies.

The agency cut Ireland’s sovereign bond rating by one notch to Aa2 this morning, citing weaker growth prospects and the high cost of rebuilding the country’s crippled banking system. It added that the outlook was stable.

But the downgrade comes after the International Monetary Fund and the European Union pulled a €20bn (£17bn) financing deal for Hungary over the weekend. Talks broke down on Saturday after the European commission voiced concerns over the newly elected Hungarian government’s budget plans.

This means Hungary will not have access to remaining funds of €5.5bn in its €20bn credit line, agreed two years ago, until a review is completed. Hungary’s currency, the forint, plunged more than 2.5% against the euro on the news and bond yields surged by up to 30 basis points.

Ireland’s downgrade came ahead of a bond auction tomorrow. Continue reading »

Tags: Anglo Irish Bank, Bonds, Bundesbank, Debt, Economy, EU, Euro, Europe, GDP, Germany, Global News, Government, Hungary, IMF, Ireland, Moody's, Politics, Rating, Spain

- Hungary Warns of Greek-Style Crisis (New York Times):

PRAGUE — Fears that the debt crisis could migrate to central Europe were stirred Friday after a senior Hungarian government official said the previous government had manipulated budget figures and lied about the state of the economy, but most financial experts dismissed the remarks as a ham-handed negotiating ploy.

The official, Peter Szijjarto, a spokesman for Prime Minister Viktor Orban, was quoted by Bloomberg News and other news agencies as saying that the Hungarian economy was in a “very grave situation.” He even raised the specter of a default, saying such speculation “isn’t an exaggeration.”

His comments followed similar warnings on Thursday by Lajos Kosa, a vice president of the governing center-right Fidesz party, and other officials that Hungary was in danger of suffering a Greek-style crisis, with budget deficits — officially 4 percent of gross domestic product in 2009 — possibly reaching 7.5 percent of G.D.P. this year.

After the comments, the Hungarian currency slid and the yield on benchmark 10-year Hungarian bonds surged, to close at 8.1 percent from 7.4 percent on Thursday. The Budapest Stock Exchange Index closed down 3.4 percent, having fallen as much as 7.1 percent earlier in the day.

For all the alarmism by senior government officials in recent days, however, economists said the country was nowhere near the crisis level of Greece and emphasized that the comments appeared to have been politically motivated to tarnish the previous Socialist government and to give Mr. Orban a stronger negotiating position with the I.M.F.

Sovereign Credit-Default Swaps Surge on Hungarian Debt Crisis

St. Stephen’s Basilica stands above the rooftops in Budapest. (Bloomberg)

June 4 (Bloomberg) — Credit-default swaps on sovereign bonds surged to a record on speculation Europe’s debt crisis is worsening after Hungary said it’s in a “very grave situation” because a previous government lied about the economy.

The cost of insuring against losses on Hungarian sovereign debt rose 63 basis points to 371, according to CMA DataVision at 3:30 p.m. in London, after earlier reaching 416 basis points. Swaps on France, Austria, Belgium and Germany also rose, sending the Markit iTraxx SovX Western Europe Index of contracts on 15 governments as high as a record 174.4 basis points.

Hungary’s bonds fell after a spokesman for Prime Minister Viktor Orban said talk of a default is “not an exaggeration” because a previous administration “manipulated” figures. The country was bailed out with a 20 billion-euro ($24 billion) aid package from the European Union and International Monetary Fund in 2008.

“The comments out of Hungary have really spooked the market,” said Rajeev Shah, a credit strategist at BNP Paribas SA in London. “Investors are interpreting it as bad sign for trying to tackle Europe’s debt crisis.”

The euro dropped below $1.21 for the first time since April 2006, stocks tumbled and the cost of insuring against corporate default rose on speculation Hungary will weaken the EU’s willingness to rescue the region’s indebted nations.

Credit markets were also roiled after data showed U.S. employers hired fewer workers in May than forecast, signaling slowing economic growth.

‘Something Serious’ Continue reading »

Tags: Bonds, cds, Debt, Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Government, Greece, Hungary, IMF, Ireland, Italy, Politics, Spain, Stock Market

Hungary is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy with its citizens struggling to pay off mortages and personal loans taken out in foreign currency during one of the post-Communist era’s most exhuberant booms.

Hungary’s prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany Photo: BLOOMBERG

The birthplace of the Rubik’s Cube has provided its government with a multi-sided financial crisis that defies any ingenious solution.

The forint currency has plummeted and unemployment has ballooned, creating a voracious debt trap that is sucking down banks backed by Western taxpayers, particularly those of Switzerland and Austria.

Continue reading »

Tags: Economy, Government, Hungary, Mortgage crisis, Mortgages, Politics

Hungarian Forint notes of differing denominations sit on display in Budapest on Nov. 19, 2008. Photographer: Balint Porneczi/Bloomberg News

Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) — The slowing global economy is halting the spread of monetary union into eastern Europe and may lead to another year of losses for the Polish zloty, Hungarian forint and Czech koruna.

The zloty fell 21 percent against the euro from a record high in July as Poland headed for its biggest economic slowdown in almost a decade, while Hungary turned to the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and European Union for a bailout as the forint weakened 15 percent. Koruna volatility almost tripled as it depreciated 12 percent. The two-year mandatory trial period before adopting the euro allows swings of no more than 15 percent.

Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic joined the European Union in 2004, committing to enter the 10 trillion-euro ($12.7 trillion) economy of countries sharing a single currency. The dream faded since July as the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression drove investors from emerging markets. Now, New York-based Morgan Stanley and UBS AG in Zurich predict more foreign exchange losses in eastern Europe.

Continue reading »

Tags: Bailout, Czech Republic, Economy, EU, Hungary, IMF, Inflation, Poland, Politics, World Bank

The Hungarian National Bank stands in Budapest, Hungary, on Oct. 16, 2008. Photographer: Balint Porneczi/Bloomberg News

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) — Imre Apostagi says the hospital upgrade he’s overseeing has stalled because his employer in Budapest can’t get a foreign-currency loan.

The company borrows in foreign currencies to avoid domestic interest rates as much as double those linked to dollars, euros and Swiss francs. Now banks are curtailing the loans as investors pull money out of eastern Europe’s developing markets and local currencies plunge.

“There’s no money out there,” said Apostagi, a project manager who asked that the medical-equipment seller he works for not be identified to avoid alarming international backers. “We won’t collapse, but everything’s slowing to a crawl. The whole world is scared and everyone’s going a bit mad.”

Foreign-denominated loans helped fuel eastern European economies including Poland, Romania and Ukraine, funding home purchases and entrepreneurship after the region emerged from communism. The elimination of such lending is magnifying the global credit crunch and threatening to stall the expansion of some of Europe’s fastest-growing economies.

Continue reading »

Tags: Banking, Credit Crisis, Credit Crunch, Economy, emerging markets, Hungary, IMF, Meltdown, Poland, Romania, Ukraine

The International Monetary Fund may soon lack the money to bail out an ever growing list of countries crumbling across Eastern Europe, Latin America, Africa, and parts of Asia, raising concerns that it will have to tap taxpayers in Western countries for a capital infusion or resort to the nuclear option of printing its own money.

IMF’s work in countries such as Turkey is only just beginning

The Fund is already close to committing a quarter of its $200bn (£130bn) reserve chest, with a loans to Iceland ($2bn), Ukraine ($16.5bn), and talks underway with Pakistan ($14.5bn), Hungary ($10bn), as well as Belarus and Serbia.

Neil Schering, emerging market strategist at Capital Economics, said the IMF’s work in the great arc of countries from the Baltic states to Turkey is only just beginning.

“When you tot up the countries across the region with external funding needs, you get to $500bn or $600bn very quickly, and that blows the IMF out of the water. The Fund may soon have to start calling on the West for additional funds,” he said.

Brad Setser, an expert on capital flows at the Council for Foreign Relations, said Russia, Mexico, Brazil and India have together spent $75bn of their reserves defending their currencies this month, and South Korea is grappling with a serious banking crisis.

“Right now the IMF is too small to meet the foreign currency liquidity needs of the larger emerging economies. We’re in a dangerous situation and there is the risk of extreme moves in the markets, as we have seen with the Brazilian real. I hope policy-makers understand how serious this is,” he said.

The IMF, led by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, has the power to raise money on the capital markets by issuing `AAA’ bonds under its own name. It has never resorted to this option, preferring to tap members states for deposits.

The nuclear option is to print money by issuing Special Drawing Rights, in effect acting as if it were the world’s central bank. This was done briefly after the fall of the Soviet Union but has never been used as systematic tool of policy to head off a global financial crisis.

“The IMF can in theory create liquidity like a central bank,” said an informed source. “There are a lot of ideas kicking around.”

Continue reading »

Tags: Bank for International Settlements, Bankruptcy, Belarus, Bonds, Central Bank, Debt, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, Economy, Financial Crisis, GDP, Government, Hungary, Iceland, IMF, Liquidity, Pakistan, Politics, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Taxpayers, Turkey, Ukraine

The crisis in Hungary recalls the heady days of the UK’s expulsion from the ERM.

The financial crisis spreading like wildfire across the former Soviet bloc threatens to set off a second and more dangerous banking crisis in Western Europe, tipping the whole Continent into a fully-fledged economic slump.

Currency pegs are being tested to destruction on the fringes of Europe’s monetary union in a traumatic upheaval that recalls the collapse of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992.

“This is the biggest currency crisis the world has ever seen,” said Neil Mellor, a strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

Experts fear the mayhem may soon trigger a chain reaction within the eurozone itself. The risk is a surge in capital flight from Austria – the country, as it happens, that set off the global banking collapse of May 1931 when Credit-Anstalt went down – and from a string of Club Med countries that rely on foreign funding to cover huge current account deficits.

The latest data from the Bank for International Settlements shows that Western European banks hold almost all the exposure to the emerging market bubble, now busting with spectacular effect.

They account for three-quarters of the total $4.7 trillion £2.96 trillion) in cross-border bank loans to Eastern Europe, Latin America and emerging Asia extended during the global credit boom – a sum that vastly exceeds the scale of both the US sub-prime and Alt-A debacles.

Continue reading »

Tags: Argentina, Austria, Banking, Brazil, Credit Crisis, Credit Crunch, Dollar, Economy, Euro, GDP, Hedge Funds, Hungary, IMF, Meltdown, Poland, Romania, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, U.K., U.S.

Russia’s financial crisis is escalating with lightning speed as foreigners pull funds from the country and the debt markets start to price a serious risk of sovereign default.

S&P has cut its outlook for Russia, which has been propping up the rouble: a man on a phone passes a board displaying currency exchange rates in Moscow Photo: Reuters

Russia’s financial crisis is escalating with lightning speed as foreigners pull funds from the country and the debt markets start to price a serious risk of sovereign default.

The cost of insuring Russian bonds against bankruptcy rocketed to extreme levels yesterday. Spreads on credit default swaps (CDS) reached 1,123, higher than Iceland’s debt before it sought a rescue from the International Monetary Fund.

Moves by Hungary, Ukraine and Belarus to seek emergency loans from the IMF have now set off a dangerous chain reaction across Eastern Europe.

Romania had to raise overnight interest rates to 900pc on Wednesday to stem capital flight, recalling the wild episodes of Europe’s ERM crisis in 1992. The CDS spreads on Ukraine’s debt have topped 2,800, signalling total revulsion by investors.

Rating agency Standard & Poor’s issued a downgrade alert on Russian bonds yesterday, warning that a series of state rescue packages worth $200bn (£124bn) could start to erode the credit-worthiness of the state.

Continue reading »

Tags: Debt, Derivatives, Derivatives market, Dmitry Medvedev, Financial Crisis, Hungary, IMF, Romania, Russia, Standard & Poor's, Ukraine

Ukraine, Hungary, and Serbia are all in emergency talks with the International Monetary Fund, raising fears that an exodus of foreign investors will set off a systemic crisis across Eastern Europe.

A team of IMF trouble-shooters rushed to Kiev on Wednesay to draw up a possible standby loan to help Ukraine stabilize its bank after a panic run on deposits this month. Continue reading »

Tags: Argentina, Bailout, BNP Paribas, Bulgaria, Credit Crisis, Credit Crunch, Derivatives, Derivatives market, Economy, Ecuador, Financial Crisis, Government, Hungary, IMF, Mortgage crisis, Mortgages, Pakistan, Politics, Romania, Serbia, Turkey, Ukraine