Jul 23

- Portugal President Admits Espirito Santo Failure Could Be Systemic As Another HoldCo Goes Bankrup (ZeroHedge, July 22, 2014):

As RioForte joins its parent ESI in bankruptcy, in a strangely honest turn of events from a European leader, Portugal’s President Anibal Cavaco Silva warned on Monday that fallout from the financial troubles of the founding family of Banco Espirito Santo (BES) could affect the wider economy. With Portugal’s hope-strewn GDP growth expectations at only 0.9% for 2014, they do not have much room for disappointment before the nation (whose yields remain near record lows) double- or triple-dips back into recession. Silva concluded, “We cannot ignore that there will be some impact on the real economy,” which is odd given every talking-head has explained it is “contained” and “priced-in.”

Rioforte joins ESI in bankjruptcy…

  • *RIOFORTE SAYS IT SEEKS PROTECTION FROM CREDITORS
  • *RIOFORTE SAYS FILING IS LINKED TO DIFFICULTIES AT ESI

Just another default in the chain Continue reading »

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Jul 19

- World GDP Hopes Are Collapsing (ZeroHedge, July 18, 2014):Share27

Presented with no comment (except to note how different the “fact” in this chart is from the “fantasy” we hear spewed day after day about ‘recovery’ in the world’s economy)

20140718_gdp

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Jul 08

facepalm

- China Prepares To “Boost” Economy By Also Revising Its GDP Definition (ZeroHedge, July 8, 2014):

Now that even that bedrock of the Keynesian voodoo religion, the Gross Domestic Product calculation, has become a ridiculous farce, with everyone in Europe suddenly adding the uncalculable “contribution” from drug dealers and hookers all in a mad dash to make debt/GDP ratios appear better than they are, it is truly time to unleash the clowns as none other than the country which has taken fabricating economic data to an artform, no not the US for those confused but China, is preparing to change the way its calculates its GDP, with the biggest contribution coming from, hold on to your hats, R&D. One wonders if “reverse engineering” of pirated products and services is covered in this “non-GAAP GDP” category. The end result? GDP for the country which cumulatively will be several percentage points higher once the entire fudging/recasting exercise is completed. Continue reading »

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Jun 26

GDP Disaster: Final Q1 GDP Crashes To -2.9%, Lowest Since 2009, Far Below The Worst Expectations (ZeroHedge, June 25, 2014):

Remember when in January 2014, Q1 GDP was expected to rise 2.6%? Well, here comes the final Q1 GDP revision and it’s a doozy: at -2.9%, far below the -1.8% expected and well below the -1.0% second revision, it is an absolute disaster, and is the worst print since Q1 2009.

And while a bad GDP print was largely expected, the driver wasn’t: personal consumption expenditures somehow crashed from 3.1% to just 1.0%, far below the 2.4% expected, meaning that all hope of a consumer recovery is dead. Finally, as a reminder, US GDP has never fallen more than 1.5% except during or just before an NBER-defined recession since quarterly GDP records began in 1947. Good luck department of truth propaganda machine, because even assuming 3% growth every other quarter in 2014 means 2014 GDP will be 1.5% at best!

 

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Jun 14

- 12 Numbers About The Global Financial Ponzi Scheme That Should Be Burned Into Your Brain (Economic Collapse, June 11, 2014):

The numbers that you are about to see are likely to shock you.  They prove that the global financial Ponzi scheme is far more extensive than most people would ever dare to imagine.  As you will see below, the total amount of debt in the world is now more than three times greater than global GDP.  In other words, you could take every single good and service produced on the entire planet this year, next year and the year after that and it still would not be enough to pay off all the debt.  But even that number pales in comparison to the exposure that big global banks have to derivatives contracts.  It is hard to put into words how reckless they have been.  At the low end of the estimates, the total exposure that global banks have to derivatives contracts is 710 trillion dollars.  That is an amount of money that is almost unimaginable.  And the reality of the matter is that there is really not all that much actual “money” in circulation today.  In fact, as you will read about below, there is only a little bit more than a trillion dollars of U.S. currency that you can actually hold in your hands in existence.  If we all went out and tried to close our bank accounts and investment portfolios all at once, that would create a major league crisis.  The truth is that our financial system is little more than a giant pyramid scheme that is based on debt and paper promises.  It is literally a miracle that it has survived for so long without collapsing already. Continue reading »

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Jun 07

- “Same Stuff, Different Year” (ZeroHedge, June 4, 2014):

How many more of these annual disappointments does it take before the world gets the joke…

The History of consensus expectations for US GDP…(notice they all go from the upper left to the lower left…)

20140604_GDPSSDY

Source: Bloomberg h/t @M_McDonough

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Jun 02

- Obamanomics Simplified (ZeroHedge, May 30, 2014):

The Godzilla of incompetence…

obamanomics

Source: Investors.com via The Burning Platform blog

“weather?…”

Continue reading »

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May 31

FYI.


trumanshow

- The Truman Show US Economy: Real GDP Numbers Show -9% Annualized Drop (Activist Post, May 31, 2014):

Watching all aspects of the US economy from outside of the propaganda zone sometimes feels like you are watching The Truman Show.

The Truman Show, for those who haven’t seen the 1998 Jim Carrey film, centered around a completely false town.  In the movie everything about the town was fake except for one person, Truman Burbank, who wasn’t in on the plot.  In a sense your average person in the US, particularly when it comes to the economy, is akin to Truman.  They have grown up inside this completely false environment and don’t even know it is all fake.

Virtually everything in The Truman Show-esque US economy is misinformation and completely skewed in which the creators, the US government, the Federal Reserve and the mainstream media constantly propagate blatantly false and wrong information and the American public, like Truman, have no idea that anything is even amiss.

The latest hilarious plot twist, at least for those of us watching it as observers and not intimately tied into the story, were the latest GDP numbers released showing a -1% annualized rate in the first quarter of this year. Continue reading »

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May 31


Added: May 29, 2014
Description:

In this episode of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert discuss driving GDP high on cocaine, banking fraud and new-fangled derivatives products. In the second half, Max interviews Satyajit Das about China’s debt problems and central banks’ printing presses.

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May 30

- The Global Death Cross Just Got Deathier (ZeroHedge, May 30, 2014):

In the immortal words of Cher – “Do you believe in life after QE; I can feel something inside me say, “I really don’t think you’re strong enough, Now.”

The Global Death Cross Just Got Deathier

How does this end well?

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May 30

- Thursday Humor: GDP – Grossly Dubious Projections (ZeroHedge, May 29, 2014):

In the middle of the last great financial crisis, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) proclaimed that Q1 2008 was the US economy grow at a modest 0.6%. This was met with hockey-stick prognosticators looking to the heavens for the next few quarters and bleeting about transitory factors affecting the economy. However, as the following chart shows, five years later (and after numerous adjustments) the +0.6% growth for Q1 2008 had somehow morphed into a clench-worthy 2.7% collapse in the economy

Trade accordingly…

20140529_GDP

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May 29

- Excluding Obamacare, US Economy Contracted By 2% In The First Quarter (ZeroHedge, May 29, 2014):

As if the official news that the US economy is just one quarter away from an official recession (and with just one month left in the second quarter that inventory restocking better be progressing at an epic pace) but don’t worry – supposedly harsh weather somehow managed to wipe out $100 billion in economic growth from the initial forecast for Q1 GDP – here is some even worse news: if one excludes the artificial stimulus to the US economy generated from the Obamacare Q1 taxpayer-subsidized scramble, which resulted in a record surge in Healthcare services spending of $40 billion in the quarter, Q1 GDP would have contracted not by 1% but by 2%!

The history of healthcare spending’s contribution to GDP. The outlier needs no highlighting: Continue reading »

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May 29

- US Economy Shrank By 1% In The First Quarter: First Contraction Since 2011(ZeroHedge, May 29, 2014):

Weather 1 – Quantitative Easing 0.

Spot on the chart below just how high the culmination of over $1 trillion in QE3 proceeds “pushed” the US economy.

US Quarterly GDP

Joking aside, while the realization that nobody can fight the Fed except a cold weather front, is quite profound, in the first quarter GDP “grew” by a revised -1.0%, down from the +0.1% first estimate, and well below the -0.5%  expected, confirming that while economists may suck as economists, they are absolutely horrible as weathermen. This was the worst print since the -1.3% recorded in Q1 2011.

Bottom line: for whatever reason, in Q1 the US economy contracted not only for the first time in three years, but at the fastest pace since Q1 of 2011. It probably snowed then too.

The breakdown by components is as follows: Continue reading »

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May 22

From the article:

The punchline:

Therefore Renzi will have a greater margin this year to spend” without breaching the deficit limit, he said.


- Hookers And Blow: How Changing The Definition Of GDP Officially Jumped The Shark (ZeroHedge, May 22, 2014):

A year ago it was the US which first “boosted” America’s GDP by $500 billion – literally out of thin air – when it arbitrarily decided to include “intangibles” to the components that ‘make up’ GDP (in the process cutting over 5% from the US Debt/GDP ratio). Then Spain joined the fray. Then Greece. Then the UK. Then Nigeria, which showed those deveoped Keynesian basket cases how it is really done, when it doubled the size of its GDP overnight when it decided to change the base year of its GDP calculations. Now it is Italy’s turn, and like everything else Italy does, this latest “revision” of the definition of GDP easily wins in the style points category. As Bloomberg reports, “Italy will include prostitution and illegal drug sales in the gross domestic product calculation this year.” Yup: blow and hookers. And that, ladies and gents, how it’s done. Continue reading »

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May 02

Where is Al Gore when we desperately need him?


- Do You Believe In Miracles?

Pray to the god of hockey-sticks…

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Apr 30

- If It Wasn’t For Obamacare, Q1 GDP Would Be Negative (ZeroHedge, April 30, 2014):

Here is a shocker: for all the damnation Obamacare, which according to poll after poll is loathed by a majority of the US population, has gotten if it wasn’t for the (government-mandated) spending surge resulting from Obamacare, which resulted in the biggest jump in Healthcare Services spending in the past quarter in history and added 1.1% to GDP …

Healthcare Quarterly

… real Q1 GDP (in chained 2009 dollars), which rose only $4.3 billion sequentially to $15,947 billion, would have been a negative 1.0%!

Continue reading »

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Apr 30

- GDP Shocker: US Economic Growth Crashes To Just 0.1% In Q1 (ZeroHedge, April 30, 2014):

Despite consensus at 1.2% growth QoQ, the “weather” destroyed the fragile stimulus-led economy of the US which managed only a de minimus +0.1% QoQ growth (the lowest since Q1 2011). However, as Steve Liesman noted on the heels of Mark Zandi’s comments “basically ignore this number” – ok then. Spending on Services, however, surged by the most since 2000 – heralded as great news by some talking heads – but is merely a reflection of the surge in healthcare and heating costs (imagine if it had not been cold and if Obamacare hadn’t saved us). As a reminder – this is the growth that is occurring as QE has run its course, as stimulus ends, and as escape velocity nears… if the “weather” can do this much damage to the US economy, should stocks really be trading at the multiple of exuberant future hope that they are?

Oops!

20140430_GDP

The full breakdown of GDP components: Continue reading »

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Mar 31

- Capital Controls and 200% Price Hikes in Ukraine – And Ukraine Is In Better Shape Than The US! (Activist Post, March 31, 2014):

In a TV address to a torn nation, Ukraine’s PM Yatsenyuk first implied heating prices would rise incrementally, and then later confirmed a plan to increase prices 100% in the next two years (and nearly 200% by 2017) as the cost of imported Russian gas is expected to rise to $500 from the current $84.

Not only did the Ukrainians have the hard rug of the consequences of statism pulled out from underneath them, but the move was followed with tougher capital controls, which restricted cash purchases to $1,300 per person per day after the Central Bank said “amid a tense situation in money markets” it is now broke. (We covered a reported shipment of gold out of Ukraine a couple of weeks ago) Continue reading »

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Mar 28

- Moody’s Puts Russia On Downgrade Review; Cites Event Risk, Investor Sentiment, And Weakening Economy (Zerohedge, March 28, 2014):

Hot on the heels of what S&P said was not a “politically motivated” shift to rating watch, Moody’s (who did not downgrade the USA and are not currently in a lawsuit over such terrible misrepresentations) has decided now is the time to put Russia on rating downgrade watch. The decision was triggered by 3 key factors: the weakening of Russia’s economic strength, potential shifts in investor sentiment, and susceptibility to event risk.

Full report below… Continue reading »

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Mar 20

- S&P Brings Out The Big Policy Guns – Downgrades Russia To Outlook Negative (ZeroHedge, March 20, 2014):

S&P, still deep in the mire of a legal battle with the US government, has decided now is an opportune time to cut the ratings outlook on Russia:

  • *RUSSIAN FEDERATION OUTLOOK TO NEGATIVE FROM STABLE BY S&P
  • *S&P SEES EU-U.S. IMPOSING FURTHER SANCTIONS

Russia remains a BBB credit (but with the outlook shift remains open to a downgrade with 24 months). S&P has cut 2014 GDP forecast to 1.2% and 2015 to 2.2%. Of course, we are sure, this would have nothing to do with currying favors with the US government (who threatened them when they downgraded the USA). Full report below.

S&P Reduces Russian Federation outlook to Negative from Stable.

Below is the full report: Continue reading »

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