May 29

From the article:

What is disturbing is that as noted before, inventories contributed the biggest component of Q1 GDP growth, adding $106 billion in nominal “growth.” Without that contribution, annualized GDP would have been worse than -3%!

In short: welcome to the recession, which however will soon be double seasonally adjusted into another flourishing, of only stiatistically, “recovery.”


“Welcome To The Contraction”: Q1 GDP Drops By 0.7%, Corporate Profits Crash (ZeroHedge, May 29, 2015):

And you thought the preliminary 0.2% Q1 GDP print from last month was bad. Moments ago, just as we warned, the BEA released its latest, first, revision of Q1 GDP (pre second-seasonal adjustments of course), and we just got confirmation that for the third time in the past four years, the US economy suffered a quarterly contraction, with the Q1 GDP revised drastically from a 0.2% growth to a drop of -0.7%: the worst print since snow struck, so very unexpectedly, last winter.

US Q1 GDP

Incidentally, there has not been a US “expansion” with three negative quarters in it in the past 60 years. Continue reading »

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May 29

GDP Report Confirms Global Trade Is Crashing, And Why That Is Good News For Some (ZeroHedge, May 29, 2015):

We did not actually need confirmation that global trade is slowing to a crawl (and has in fact reversed): after all, we have been showing just that for the past year, most recently earlier this week but it is important to note that in today’s negative GDP print, it was net trade (exports less imports) that subtracted -1.9% from the final GDP print, driven by a -1.03% annualized drop in exports. This was the biggest hit to US trade since thegreat financial crisis.

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May 18

The Debt To GDP Ratio For The Entire World 286 Percent

The Debt To GDP Ratio For The Entire World: 286 Percent (EconomicCollapse, May 17, 2015):

Did you know that there is more than $28,000 of debt for every man, woman and child on the entire planet?  And since close to 3 billion of those people survive on less than 2 dollars a day, your share of that debt is going to be much larger than that.  If we took everything that the global economy produced this year and everything that the global economy produced next year and used it to pay all of this debt, it still would not be enough.  According to a recent report put out by the McKinsey Global Institute entitled “Debt and (not much) deleveraging“, the total amount of debt on our planet has grown from 142 trillion dollars at the end of 2007 to 199 trillion dollars today.  This is the largest mountain of debt in the history of the world, and those numbers mean that we are in substantially worse condition than we were just prior to the last financial crisis. Continue reading »

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May 07


Apr 30, 2015

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May 05

US Trade Deficit Soars To Worst Since Financial Crisis; Will Push Q1 GDP Negative (ZeroHedge, May 5, 2015):

After shrinking notably in Feb, March’s US Trade deficit exploded. Against expectations of a $41.7bn deficit, the US generated a $51.4bn deficit – the worst since Oct 2008 and the biggest miss on record. Exports rose just $1.6bn while imports soared $17.1bn with the goods deficit with China soaring from $27.3bn to $37.8bn in March. Ironically, just as the “harsh winter” was found to lead to a GDP boost due to a surge in utility spending, so the West Coast port strike which was blamed for the GDP drop, was actually benefiting the US economy as it lead to a plunge in imports. In March, however, the pipeline was cleared, and US imports from China soared by over $10 billion to $38 billion.  End result: prepare for upcoming Q1 GDP downgrades into negative territory.

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May 01

16 Signs That The Economy Has Stalled Out And The Next Economic Downturn Is Here (Economic Collapse, April 29, 2015):

If U.S. economic growth falls any lower, we are officially going to be in recession territory.  On Wednesday, we learned that U.S. GDP grew at a 0.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2015.  That was much lower than all of the “experts” were projecting.  And of course there are all sorts of questions whether the GDP numbers the government feeds us are legitimate anyway.  According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if honest numbers were used they would show that U.S. GDP growth has been continuously negative since 2005.  But even if we consider the number that the government has given us to be the “real” number, it still shows that the U.S. economy has stalled out.  It is almost as if we have hit a “turning point”, and there are many out there (including myself) that believe that the next major economic downturn is dead ahead.  As you will see in this article, a whole bunch of things are happening right now that we would expect to see if a recession was beginning. 

The following are 16 signs that the economy has stalled out and the next economic downturn is here: Continue reading »

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Apr 29

From the article:

“In other words, if US inventories, already at record high levels, and with the inventory to sales rising to great financial crisis levels, had not grown by $121.9 billion and merely remained flat, US Q1 GDP would not be 0.2%, but would be -2.6%.

Oh heck, just round it down to -3.0%


Q1 GDP in Context

–  Biggest Inventory Build In History Prevents Total Collapse Of The US Economy (ZeroHedge, April 29, 2015):

While we already observed that in Q1, US GDP rose by an appalling 0.2%, far, far below the consensus Wall Street estimate (in case you missed it, here again is the one thing every Wall Street economist desperately needs) and precisely in line with the Atlanta Fed forecast which we brought attention to in early March, confirming yet again that US stocks no longer reflect any fundamentals but merely Fed and global liquidity injections, there is something far more disturbing under the surface of today’s GDP report.

Inventories.

Specifically, the $121.9 billion increase in private, mostly nonfarm, inventories in the first quarter.

Cutting to the punchline, this was the biggest inventory build in history.

Change In Inventories

Another punchline: in Q1 2015, the US economy rose by a paltry $6.3 billion in nominal terms to $17.710 trillion.

Here is how the total GDP growth compares to just the increase in inventories, which as we wrote earlier this week, is the primary reason why the world is now gripped in a global deflationary wave. Continue reading »

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Apr 29

US Economy Grinds To A Halt, Again: Q1 GDP Tumbles Below Expectations, Rises Paltry 0.2% (ZeroHedge, April 29, 2015):

And so the Atlanta Fed, whose “shocking” Q1 GDP prediction Zero Hedge first laid out nearly 2 months ago, with its Q1 GDP 0.1% forecast was spot on. Moments ago the BEA reported that Q1 GDP was far worse than almost everyone had expected, and tumbled from a 2.2% annualized growth rate at the end of 2014 to just 0.2%, in a rerun of last year when it too “snowed” in the winter.  This was well below the Wall Street consensus of a print above 1.0%.

US-GDP

In other words, in the quarter in which the S&P rose to unseen highs, the economy ground to a near halt. Continue reading »

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Apr 28

From the article:

“… the studies found the cost of a ‘Brexit’ would outweigh the benefits.”

Sure!

And better not take a look at what happened in Iceland and Greenland:

Why is Greenland so rich these days? It said goodbye to the EU!


brexit-cost

​EU exit would cost Britain up to £215 billion, German study predicts (RT, April 27, 2014):

A British exit from the European Union could cost the UK billions of pounds, a report published by two German institutes predicts.

The study by Bertelsmann Stiftung and Ifo Institute calculates if the UK leaves the EU the country could lose 14 percent of its GDP – equivalent to £215 billion.

Germany and other EU member states would also lose out financially, although not as much as Britain.

Even if Britain was successful in negotiating a trade agreement with the EU, the studies found the cost of a ‘Brexit’ would outweigh the benefits. Continue reading »

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Apr 05

“GDP Now” Reaches Blutarsky Average (The Burning Platform, April 2, 2015):

We’ve been in recession since at least December. Retail sales, which account for 67% of GDP have sucked for the last four months. Obamacare spending is the only thing that kept the 4th quarter GDP from being negative. Factory orders have crashed and it is clear to anyone with a functioning brain (disqualifies politicians, CNBC bimbos and boobs, and Ivy League trained economists) we are in recession. We’ve crossed the Blutarsky line.

Factory Orders Fed_1_0

GDP Now in Dangerous Waters

The Atlanta Fed has posted today that its GDP Now measure has reached exactly the same level as a certain Mr. John Blutarsky’s mid-term grade average. This is to say, it has declined to 0.0%.

gdpnow-forecast-evolution

GDP Now goes Blutarsky – via Atlanta FED

Continue reading »

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Mar 05

NFIB Chief Economist Warns “Bubble In US Net Worth Has Reached Unsustainable Heights” (ZeroHedge, March 4, 2015):

“The relationship of U.S. net worth to GDP appears to have reached unsustainable heights,” warns NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg, adding that a massive decline in the value of assets is “more likely” than a massive increase in GDP. Logically this seems unavoidable, unless you believe that we are truly wealthier now, even with an economy that is delivering a rather poor performance (historically weak output and sales growth) in real terms. It would seem not to be ‘whether’ we will adjust but when.

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Mar 04

GDP Shocker: Atlanta Fed Calculates Q1 Growth Of Only 1.2% (ZeroHedge, March 3, 2015):

While every other word from talking-heads and policy-makers relates various anecdotes (or simple lies) about US economic growth, The Atlanta Fed appears to have taken a ‘data-dependent’ perspective on the real economy (as opposed to smoke and mirrors). Based on their GDPNow “nowcasting” model, The Atlanta Fed projects Q1 2015 GDP growth os just 1.2% (less than half current sell-side economist consensus) and getting weaker…

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Mar 03

Related info:

This Is The Biggest Problem Facing The World Today: 9 Countries Have Debt-To-GDP Over 300%


Global Debt Is MORE THAN TWICE AS BIG As the Entire World Economy … What Does It Mean? (Washington’s Blog, March 3, 2015):

Global Debt Is Almost 3 Times As Big As the World Economy

The Guardian reports that global debt has grown by $57 trillion dollars – to $199 trillion dollars – since the 2008 financial crisis. Continue reading »

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Feb 21

The Global Death Cross Just Got “Deathier” (ZeroHedge, Feb 19, 2015):

“X” continues to mark the spot of the death of global investor rationality…

19 “policy easings” since the start of the year have surged global equity prices to record highs but has sent expectations for global GDP growth to cycle lows…

Global Death Cross

 When does the foundation of faith in central planners start to break?

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Feb 17

The Last Time This Happened, US GDP Crashed By 5% (ZeroHedge, Feb 16, 2015):


The last time US weather was this bad, annualized US GDP crashed from 2.3% to -2.9%.

Or perhaps this time will be different, and the laughable cadre of propaganda sycophants known as tenured and/or Wall Street economists finally admits that cold weather in the winter had nothing to do with the economic plunge a year ago, and everything to do with the fact that when it comes to integrity and accuracy of economic data and estimations, the US now ranks pari passu with the Chinese department of truth?

Unless, of course, just like last year economists discover that it was “really cold” post hoc once again, and none other than the Fed decides to blame, drumroll, the weather for crushing its best laid plans (of central planners and men) to hike rates some time in the summer of 2015.

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Feb 16

David Stockman: The Global Economy Has Entered The Crack-Up Phase (PeakProsperity, Feb 15, 2015):

Few people understand the global economy and its (mis)management better than David Stockman — former director of the OMB under President Reagan, former US Representative, best-selling author of The Great Deformation, and veteran financier.

David is now loudly warning that events have entered the crack-up phase, which he predicts will be defined by the following 4 developments: Continue reading »

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Jan 30

Obamacare

– Thanks Obamacare: This Is What Americans Spent The Most Money On In Q4 (ZeroHedge, Jan 30, 2015):

If readers need clarification on what was the primary source of spending-based “growth” for the US economy in the fourth quarter, the same source that bumped up final Q3 GDP from 3.9% to 5.0%, please ping us: we will gladly explain the chart below.  And just in case it is still unclear what Americans are spending their “gas sasvings” on, here it is one more time.

Q4 spending GDP

And just in case the fading impact of Obamacare is not already priced in, here is what Q4 inventories did: rising by $113.1 billion in Q4, this was the second highest quarterly increase in the 21st century, second only to September 2010. It’s all GDP-crushing liquidations from here. Continue reading »

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Dec 29

Brazil’s Economy Just Imploded (ZeroHedge, Dec 29, 2014):

China may have mastered the art of fabricating economic data to a level unmatched by anyone except the US Department of Labor, but its derivative countries have much to learn. And none other more so than one of China’s favorite sources of commodities over the past decade: Brazil. It is here that things are going from worse to catastrophic, as disclosed in today’s update of Brazil’s fiscal picture.

Here are the disturbing facts showing that behind the world’s propaganda growth facade, it is all hollow: Brazil’s consolidated public sector primary fiscal balance, which posted a significantly worse than expected R$8.1bn primary deficit in November driven by the R$6.7bn deficit of the Central Government, dipped into negative territory: -0.18% of GDP, driven by the significant deterioration of the Central Government finances.

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Dec 23

From the article:

“In short, two-thirds of the “boost” to final Q3 personal consumption came from, drumroll, the same Obamacare which initially was supposed to boost Q1 GDP until the “polar vortex” crashed the number so badly, the BEA decided to pull it completely and leave this “growth dry powder” for another quarter. That quarter was Q3.”


Here Is The Reason For The “Surge” In Q3 GDP (ZeroHedge, Dec 23, 2014):

Back in June, when we were looking at the final Q1 GDP print, we discovered something very surprising: after the BEA had first reported that absent for Obamacare, Q1 GDP would have been negative in its first Q1 GDP report, subsequent GDP prints imploded as a result of what is now believed to be the polar vortex. But the real surprise was that the Obamacare boost was, in the final print, revised massively lower to actually reduce GDP!

This is how the unprecedented trimming of Obamacare’s contribution to GDP looked like back then.

Healthcare Contribution Continue reading »

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Nov 12

Hopeless!


Brazilian butt lift

America’s Next Economic Bonanza: Bigger Butts (ZeroHedge, Nov 11, 2014):

The U.S. booty business is getting a big bump, as AP reports companies are cashing in on growing demand from women seeking the more curvaceous figures of their favorite stars. While Millennials may spend most of their day sitting on their Minaj-esque “big fat butts” playing Kardashian, the business of boosting butts is bursting. From padded panties and gym classes that promise plumper posteriors to the “Brazilian butt lift,” in which fat is sucked from a patient’s stomach, love handles or back and put into their buttocks and hips, French sociologist Jean-Claude Kaufmann says “there’s a trend to show off the buttocks in place of breasts due to the rise of Beyonce,” Jennifer Lopez, and more recently Meghan Trainor. The bottom line – butt lifts and implants are the fastest growing plastic surgery, helping GDP at a cost of $10-13k each.

As AP reports,

Gym classes that promise a plump posterior are in high demand. A surgery that pumps fat into the buttocks is gaining popularity. And padded panties that give the appearance of a rounder rump are selling out. Continue reading »

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