Aug 25

Services PMI Tumbles To 6-Month Lows: “GDP Growth Is Failing To Accelerate In Q3”:

Following Manufacturing PMI’s drop from a two-month bounce, Services PMI also tumbled. Against expectations of a rise from 51.4 to 51.8, Services dropped to 50.9 – lowest since Feb 2016. With the lowest jobs data in 20 months, new orders at their weakest since May, as Markit warns, “GDP growth is failing to accelerate in the third quarter from the weak 1.2% pace seen in the second quarter.”

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Aug 24

angela-merkel


German GDP Growth Slows Dramatically In Second Quarter:

(AFP) – Germany’s economy, Europe’s largest, grew by 0.4 percent in the second quarter, federal statistics office Destatis said in data released on Wednesday.

Gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.4 percent between April and June, adjusted for seasonal, calendar and price effects — slower than the unexpectedly strong 0.7 percent expansion in the first quarter.

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Aug 05

Only In China: Companies Become Banks To ‘Solve’ Financial Difficulties:

China is desperate to solve several problems it has due to its debt to GDP ratio being north of 300 percent. It may have found a pretty unconventional one by letting companies become banks…

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Jul 29

GDP Shocker: US Economy Grew Only 1.2% In Second Quarter; Q1 Revised To 0.8%

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Apr 29

The U.S. Economy Officially Joins The Global Economic Slowdown – 1st Quarter GDP Comes In At 0.5%:

Even the government is admitting that the U.S. economy is slowing down.  On Thursday, we learned that U.S. GDP grew at just a 0.5 percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2016.  This was lower than analysts were anticipating, and it marks the third time in a row that the GDP number has declined compared to the previous quarter.  In other words, GDP growth has been declining for close to a year now, and this lines up perfectly with what I have been saying about how the second half of last year was a turning point that plunged us into the early chapters of a brand new economic crisis.  And as you will see below, the official GDP number is highly manipulated, and the way that it is calculated has been changed numerous times over the years.  So the bad number that is being reported by the government is actually the best case scenario. Continue reading »

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Mar 27

H/T reader squodgy:

“I’ve been advocating the principles of “THE GROWTH ILLUSION” by the late Richard Douthwaite for a few years now,
GDP GROWTH benefits nobody but the Banksters.

They use it to push businesses to expand. The businesses can only expand using loans/overdrafts/bonds. Who benefits from this????Doh!”


Full article here:

To Save The Economy, We Have To Break Its One Sacred Rule:

We must stop worshiping the false god of GDP growth.

Scholars are still trying to figure out why the society on Easter Island collapsed, ending the people famed for their construction of towering stone heads. One interesting theory holds that it had to do with the heads themselves. Somehow, the islanders decided that the giant heads represented power and success, so different groups competed to build as many heads as possible. But because there was only one quarry, to move the stones around the island required felling trees to use as rollers. To feed their lust for heads, they felled the trees so eagerly that, over just a few generations, what was once a tropical forest was reduced to barren scrubland.

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Jan 04

Atlanta Fed Just Slashed Q4 GDP Forecast To Barely Positive 0.7%, Down 1.2% In Ten Days:

Moments ago, in its latest Q4 GDP revision, the Atlanta Fed just pulled the rug from under the economy (and the market now that bad news for the economy is bad news for stocks), and slashed its latest quarterly forecast by another 50%, from 1.3% to a barely positive 0.7%.  In other words, according to the Atlanta Fed, Janet Yellen launched a rate hike cycle in a quarter when GDP will be just 0.7%, and which when averaged across the prior 3 quarters, would mean that the US will have grown at just 1.8% in 2015, a 25% drop from the 2.4% GDP growth in 2014.

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Oct 31

“The conditions in the economies of the rest of the world have undoubtedly proved weaker compared with a few months ago, in particular in the emerging economies. Global growth forecasts have been revised downwards. This slowdown is probably not temporary.”


Draghi Satan

Mario Draghi Admits Global QE Has Failed: “The Slowdown Is Probably Not Temporary”:

Undoubtedly, the most amusing this about the prospect of more easing from the ECB (as telegraphed by Mario Draghi last week) and the BoJ (where Haruhiko Kuroda just jeopardized his status as monetary madman par excellence by failing to expand stimulus) is that both Europe and Japan both recently slid back into deflation despite trillions in central bank asset purchases. 

In other words, the market expects both Draghi and Kuroda to double- and triple- down on policies that clearly aren’t working when it comes to altering inflation expectations and/or boosting aggregate demand. Indeed, both Goldman and BofAML said as much last week. For those who missed it, here’s Goldman’s take Continue reading »

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Sep 28

Chinese GDP Propaganda Full Frontal: Plunge In Key Data Points Pitched As Bullish:

“The discrepancy between economic growth and the two key indicators’ growth in the first six months did not fit with previous patterns, but industrial restructuring is a new factor, and should be taken into account when analyzing the new situation.”

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Sep 02

Uploaded on Feb 12, 2010

Mish’s website:

Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Sep 01

Not “Unequivocally Good” – Canada Enters Recession (ZeroHedge, Sept 1, 2015):

It appears low oil prices are not awesome for everyone. For the second quarter in a row, Canadian GDP dropped (-0.5%) pushing America’s northern neighbor back into recession. What is ironic is that this was better than the 1% drop that was expected and so CAD is strengthening.

20150901_gdp

and the kneejerk is a strengthening of CAD against the USD as the drop was less than expected… Continue reading »

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Aug 26

CHINA REAL GDP

China Stunner: Real GDP Is Now A Negative -1.1%, Evercore ISI Calculates (ZeroHedge, Aug 26, 2015):

With Chinese data now an official farce even among Wall Street economists, tenured academics, and all others whose job obligation it is to accept and never question the lies they are fed, the biggest question over the past year has been just what is China’s real, and rapidly slowing, GDP – which alongside the Fed, is the primary catalyst of the global risk shakeout experienced in recent weeks.

One thing that everyone knows and can agree on, is that it is not the official 7% number, or whatever goalseeked fabrication the communist party tries to push to a world that has realized China can’t even manipulate its stock market higher, let alone its economy. Continue reading »

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Aug 06

Imagine my absence of shock.


GDP Shocker: Atlanta Fed Sees Q3 Growth At A Laughable 1% (ZeroHedge, Aug 6, 2015):

The Atlanta Fed’s Q1 and Q2 GDP forecasts were virtually spot on with what the BEA ultimately reported. Which is why if its accuracy persists, not only the Fed, but Wall Street strategists suddenly have a very big headache on their hands. Moments ago, the Atlanta Fed just released its much anticipated first estimate for Q3 GDP. It was a doozy, at just 1.0%, or more than 2% below the consensus sellside estimate.

 

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May 29

From the article:

What is disturbing is that as noted before, inventories contributed the biggest component of Q1 GDP growth, adding $106 billion in nominal “growth.” Without that contribution, annualized GDP would have been worse than -3%!

In short: welcome to the recession, which however will soon be double seasonally adjusted into another flourishing, of only stiatistically, “recovery.”


“Welcome To The Contraction”: Q1 GDP Drops By 0.7%, Corporate Profits Crash (ZeroHedge, May 29, 2015):

And you thought the preliminary 0.2% Q1 GDP print from last month was bad. Moments ago, just as we warned, the BEA released its latest, first, revision of Q1 GDP (pre second-seasonal adjustments of course), and we just got confirmation that for the third time in the past four years, the US economy suffered a quarterly contraction, with the Q1 GDP revised drastically from a 0.2% growth to a drop of -0.7%: the worst print since snow struck, so very unexpectedly, last winter.

US Q1 GDP

Incidentally, there has not been a US “expansion” with three negative quarters in it in the past 60 years. Continue reading »

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May 29

GDP Report Confirms Global Trade Is Crashing, And Why That Is Good News For Some (ZeroHedge, May 29, 2015):

We did not actually need confirmation that global trade is slowing to a crawl (and has in fact reversed): after all, we have been showing just that for the past year, most recently earlier this week but it is important to note that in today’s negative GDP print, it was net trade (exports less imports) that subtracted -1.9% from the final GDP print, driven by a -1.03% annualized drop in exports. This was the biggest hit to US trade since thegreat financial crisis.

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May 18

The Debt To GDP Ratio For The Entire World 286 Percent

The Debt To GDP Ratio For The Entire World: 286 Percent (EconomicCollapse, May 17, 2015):

Did you know that there is more than $28,000 of debt for every man, woman and child on the entire planet?  And since close to 3 billion of those people survive on less than 2 dollars a day, your share of that debt is going to be much larger than that.  If we took everything that the global economy produced this year and everything that the global economy produced next year and used it to pay all of this debt, it still would not be enough.  According to a recent report put out by the McKinsey Global Institute entitled “Debt and (not much) deleveraging“, the total amount of debt on our planet has grown from 142 trillion dollars at the end of 2007 to 199 trillion dollars today.  This is the largest mountain of debt in the history of the world, and those numbers mean that we are in substantially worse condition than we were just prior to the last financial crisis. Continue reading »

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May 07


Apr 30, 2015

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May 05

US Trade Deficit Soars To Worst Since Financial Crisis; Will Push Q1 GDP Negative (ZeroHedge, May 5, 2015):

After shrinking notably in Feb, March’s US Trade deficit exploded. Against expectations of a $41.7bn deficit, the US generated a $51.4bn deficit – the worst since Oct 2008 and the biggest miss on record. Exports rose just $1.6bn while imports soared $17.1bn with the goods deficit with China soaring from $27.3bn to $37.8bn in March. Ironically, just as the “harsh winter” was found to lead to a GDP boost due to a surge in utility spending, so the West Coast port strike which was blamed for the GDP drop, was actually benefiting the US economy as it lead to a plunge in imports. In March, however, the pipeline was cleared, and US imports from China soared by over $10 billion to $38 billion.  End result: prepare for upcoming Q1 GDP downgrades into negative territory.

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May 01

16 Signs That The Economy Has Stalled Out And The Next Economic Downturn Is Here (Economic Collapse, April 29, 2015):

If U.S. economic growth falls any lower, we are officially going to be in recession territory.  On Wednesday, we learned that U.S. GDP grew at a 0.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2015.  That was much lower than all of the “experts” were projecting.  And of course there are all sorts of questions whether the GDP numbers the government feeds us are legitimate anyway.  According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if honest numbers were used they would show that U.S. GDP growth has been continuously negative since 2005.  But even if we consider the number that the government has given us to be the “real” number, it still shows that the U.S. economy has stalled out.  It is almost as if we have hit a “turning point”, and there are many out there (including myself) that believe that the next major economic downturn is dead ahead.  As you will see in this article, a whole bunch of things are happening right now that we would expect to see if a recession was beginning. 

The following are 16 signs that the economy has stalled out and the next economic downturn is here: Continue reading »

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Apr 29

From the article:

“In other words, if US inventories, already at record high levels, and with the inventory to sales rising to great financial crisis levels, had not grown by $121.9 billion and merely remained flat, US Q1 GDP would not be 0.2%, but would be -2.6%.

Oh heck, just round it down to -3.0%


Q1 GDP in Context

–  Biggest Inventory Build In History Prevents Total Collapse Of The US Economy (ZeroHedge, April 29, 2015):

While we already observed that in Q1, US GDP rose by an appalling 0.2%, far, far below the consensus Wall Street estimate (in case you missed it, here again is the one thing every Wall Street economist desperately needs) and precisely in line with the Atlanta Fed forecast which we brought attention to in early March, confirming yet again that US stocks no longer reflect any fundamentals but merely Fed and global liquidity injections, there is something far more disturbing under the surface of today’s GDP report.

Inventories.

Specifically, the $121.9 billion increase in private, mostly nonfarm, inventories in the first quarter.

Cutting to the punchline, this was the biggest inventory build in history.

Change In Inventories

Another punchline: in Q1 2015, the US economy rose by a paltry $6.3 billion in nominal terms to $17.710 trillion.

Here is how the total GDP growth compares to just the increase in inventories, which as we wrote earlier this week, is the primary reason why the world is now gripped in a global deflationary wave. Continue reading »

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Apr 29

US Economy Grinds To A Halt, Again: Q1 GDP Tumbles Below Expectations, Rises Paltry 0.2% (ZeroHedge, April 29, 2015):

And so the Atlanta Fed, whose “shocking” Q1 GDP prediction Zero Hedge first laid out nearly 2 months ago, with its Q1 GDP 0.1% forecast was spot on. Moments ago the BEA reported that Q1 GDP was far worse than almost everyone had expected, and tumbled from a 2.2% annualized growth rate at the end of 2014 to just 0.2%, in a rerun of last year when it too “snowed” in the winter.  This was well below the Wall Street consensus of a print above 1.0%.

US-GDP

In other words, in the quarter in which the S&P rose to unseen highs, the economy ground to a near halt. Continue reading »

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Apr 28

From the article:

“… the studies found the cost of a ‘Brexit’ would outweigh the benefits.”

Sure!

And better not take a look at what happened in Iceland and Greenland:

Why is Greenland so rich these days? It said goodbye to the EU!


brexit-cost

​EU exit would cost Britain up to £215 billion, German study predicts (RT, April 27, 2014):

A British exit from the European Union could cost the UK billions of pounds, a report published by two German institutes predicts.

The study by Bertelsmann Stiftung and Ifo Institute calculates if the UK leaves the EU the country could lose 14 percent of its GDP – equivalent to £215 billion.

Germany and other EU member states would also lose out financially, although not as much as Britain.

Even if Britain was successful in negotiating a trade agreement with the EU, the studies found the cost of a ‘Brexit’ would outweigh the benefits. Continue reading »

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Apr 05

“GDP Now” Reaches Blutarsky Average (The Burning Platform, April 2, 2015):

We’ve been in recession since at least December. Retail sales, which account for 67% of GDP have sucked for the last four months. Obamacare spending is the only thing that kept the 4th quarter GDP from being negative. Factory orders have crashed and it is clear to anyone with a functioning brain (disqualifies politicians, CNBC bimbos and boobs, and Ivy League trained economists) we are in recession. We’ve crossed the Blutarsky line.

Factory Orders Fed_1_0

GDP Now in Dangerous Waters

The Atlanta Fed has posted today that its GDP Now measure has reached exactly the same level as a certain Mr. John Blutarsky’s mid-term grade average. This is to say, it has declined to 0.0%.

gdpnow-forecast-evolution

GDP Now goes Blutarsky – via Atlanta FED

Continue reading »

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Mar 05

NFIB Chief Economist Warns “Bubble In US Net Worth Has Reached Unsustainable Heights” (ZeroHedge, March 4, 2015):

“The relationship of U.S. net worth to GDP appears to have reached unsustainable heights,” warns NFIB Chief Economist William Dunkelberg, adding that a massive decline in the value of assets is “more likely” than a massive increase in GDP. Logically this seems unavoidable, unless you believe that we are truly wealthier now, even with an economy that is delivering a rather poor performance (historically weak output and sales growth) in real terms. It would seem not to be ‘whether’ we will adjust but when.

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Mar 04

GDP Shocker: Atlanta Fed Calculates Q1 Growth Of Only 1.2% (ZeroHedge, March 3, 2015):

While every other word from talking-heads and policy-makers relates various anecdotes (or simple lies) about US economic growth, The Atlanta Fed appears to have taken a ‘data-dependent’ perspective on the real economy (as opposed to smoke and mirrors). Based on their GDPNow “nowcasting” model, The Atlanta Fed projects Q1 2015 GDP growth os just 1.2% (less than half current sell-side economist consensus) and getting weaker…

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Mar 03

Related info:

This Is The Biggest Problem Facing The World Today: 9 Countries Have Debt-To-GDP Over 300%


Global Debt Is MORE THAN TWICE AS BIG As the Entire World Economy … What Does It Mean? (Washington’s Blog, March 3, 2015):

Global Debt Is Almost 3 Times As Big As the World Economy

The Guardian reports that global debt has grown by $57 trillion dollars – to $199 trillion dollars – since the 2008 financial crisis. Continue reading »

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Feb 21

The Global Death Cross Just Got “Deathier” (ZeroHedge, Feb 19, 2015):

“X” continues to mark the spot of the death of global investor rationality…

19 “policy easings” since the start of the year have surged global equity prices to record highs but has sent expectations for global GDP growth to cycle lows…

Global Death Cross

 When does the foundation of faith in central planners start to break?

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Feb 17

The Last Time This Happened, US GDP Crashed By 5% (ZeroHedge, Feb 16, 2015):


The last time US weather was this bad, annualized US GDP crashed from 2.3% to -2.9%.

Or perhaps this time will be different, and the laughable cadre of propaganda sycophants known as tenured and/or Wall Street economists finally admits that cold weather in the winter had nothing to do with the economic plunge a year ago, and everything to do with the fact that when it comes to integrity and accuracy of economic data and estimations, the US now ranks pari passu with the Chinese department of truth?

Unless, of course, just like last year economists discover that it was “really cold” post hoc once again, and none other than the Fed decides to blame, drumroll, the weather for crushing its best laid plans (of central planners and men) to hike rates some time in the summer of 2015.

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Feb 16

David Stockman: The Global Economy Has Entered The Crack-Up Phase (PeakProsperity, Feb 15, 2015):

Few people understand the global economy and its (mis)management better than David Stockman — former director of the OMB under President Reagan, former US Representative, best-selling author of The Great Deformation, and veteran financier.

David is now loudly warning that events have entered the crack-up phase, which he predicts will be defined by the following 4 developments: Continue reading »

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Jan 30

Obamacare

– Thanks Obamacare: This Is What Americans Spent The Most Money On In Q4 (ZeroHedge, Jan 30, 2015):

If readers need clarification on what was the primary source of spending-based “growth” for the US economy in the fourth quarter, the same source that bumped up final Q3 GDP from 3.9% to 5.0%, please ping us: we will gladly explain the chart below.  And just in case it is still unclear what Americans are spending their “gas sasvings” on, here it is one more time.

Q4 spending GDP

And just in case the fading impact of Obamacare is not already priced in, here is what Q4 inventories did: rising by $113.1 billion in Q4, this was the second highest quarterly increase in the 21st century, second only to September 2010. It’s all GDP-crushing liquidations from here. Continue reading »

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