JPM estimates that if the ECB just focused on reserves equivalent to 2% of gross domestic product it could slice the rate it charges on bank deposits to minus 4.5%. In Japan, JPM calculates that the BOJ could go as low as -3.45% while Sweden’s is likely -3.27%. Finally, if and when the Fed joins the monetary twilight race, it could cut to -1.3% and the Bank of England to -2.69%.
Before abdicating his post at the Minneapolis Fed to former Goldmanite/TARP architect Neel Kashkari, Kocherlakota was the voice of Keynesian “reason” for the FOMC.
Although his pronouncements never measured up to the power of the Bullard, Kocherlakota did call on a number of occasions for MOAR dovishness, noting that if the US economy were to decelerate (which it has), more asset purchases may be warranted. Continue reading »
The current melt-down of the world’s debt bubble is likely to continue in the course of the next months. The secular trend to expansion of credit has morphed into contraction and liquidation. It is my opinion that the new trend is now established and no action by any of the Central Banks (CB) that issue reserve currencies will do anything at all to reverse that trend.
Sandeep Jaitly thinks that the desperate reserve-issuing CBs – the US Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England and the Japanese CB – may resort to programs of QEP, by which he means “Quantitative Easing for the People”. This quantitative easing will mean putting money into the hands of the populations by rebates on taxes, invented make-work schemes or any other excuse to furnish the people with the famous “helicopter money”, to get them to spend. Continue reading »
Two weeks ago we, in collaboration with several readers, requested an official response from the Fed through a Freedom Of Information Act submission. Surely if the Fed would go so far as to call us liars, it would have no problem either responding or providing the required information. This is what we got back.
During the calendar year to December 2015, the Bundesbank claims to
have transported 210 tonnes of gold back to Frankfurt, moving circa 110
tonnes from Paris to Frankfurt, and just under 100 tonnes from New York
to Frankfurt. Continue reading »
CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin and Becky Quick, donning their finest goose down bubble coats to remind viewers they’re reporting live from scenic Davos, generously took some time out of their busy schedules to chat with Ray Dalio on Wednesday and unsurprisingly, the “zen master” again predicted the Fed will reverse course and embark on more QE.
Dalio begins by noting that the Fed’s move to inflate financial assets by pumping money into the system means there’s an “asymmetric risk on the downside.”
The rationale is simple: the trillions in fungible, excess cash the Fed unleashed in the wake of the crisis has driven asset prices into bubble territory and at this juncture, there’s essentially nowhere to go but down. Continue reading »
Over the weekend, we gave the Dallas Fed a chance to respond to a Zero Hedge story corroborated by at least two independent sources, in which we reported that Federal Reserve members had met with bank lenders with distressed loan exposure to the US oil and gas sector and, after parsing through the complete bank books, had advised banks to i) not urge creditor counterparties into default, ii) urge asset sales instead, and iii) ultimately suspend mark to market in various instances.
Moments ago the Dallas Fed, whose president since September 2015 is Robert Steven Kaplan, a former Goldman Sachs career banker who after 22 years at the bank rose to the rank of vice chairman of its investment bank group – an odd background for a regional Fed president – took the time away from its holiday schedule to respond to Zero Hedge.
We thank the Dallas Fad for their prompt attention to this important matter. After all, as one of our sources commented, “If revolvers are not being marked anymore, then it’s basically early days of subprime when mbs payback schedules started to fall behind.” Surely there is nothing that can grab the public’s attention more than a rerun of the mortgage crisis, especially if confirmed by the highest institution. Continue reading »
You don’t have to listen very hard to hear the bears growling on Wall Street, London, or Paris these days. Indeed, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down another 300 points on Wednesday to just under 16,200
With the U.S. stock market sagging, oil off to its worst start ever, and the China’s economy continuing to deteriorate, bearish analysts have a wealth of evidence to point to.
And they don’t come much more bearish than Albert Edwards, strategist at Société Générale. He’s not had much nice to say about the global economy in years, and recent events have only hardened his convictions that the world is headed for disaster, and will take the prices of equities down with it. How much? Edwards predicts the U.S. stock market could plunge as much as 75%. That would be worse than during the financial crisis, in which stocks from their peak to trough dropped a brutal 62%. Continue reading »
Remember when the Fed’s dots – less than a month ago – suggested there would be 4 rate hikes in 2016? Ah, the memories. Well, you can not only forget that (now that the market is estimating the next rate hike will come in October if ever), but it appears that the Fed will follow Kocherlakota’s advice after all and not only cut rates (the possibility of a January rate cut now is 10%), but will pass go, and collect negative rates:
DUDLEY: IF ECONOMY WEAKENED, WOULD CONSIDER NEGATIVE RATES
After today’s atrocious, recessionary data, one can be certain that the Fed is furiously considering negative rates.
Rand Paul’s signature “Audit the Fed” legislation failed to garner the 60 votes needed in the Senate to move the measure forward. Of course, this is merely the latest in a never-ending series of banker victories, and a truly devastating blow against liberty, free markets, transparency and any hope for government by the people and for the people. Ensuring that light is never shined on the Fed’s shady, corrupt and unaccountable bailout activities has always been a key goal of the American oligarchy, and they succeeded once again. Continue reading »
As Wall Street axioms (Santa rally, January effect, as goes January etc.) are rapidly falling by the wayside at the start of 2016, following a chaotic but return-less 2015, the UBS analysts who correctly forecast last year’s volatility are out with their forecast for 2016. It’s simple – Sell Stocks, Buy Gold… expect a Fed u-turn.
“We had a hard landing in the stock market already. We had a hard landing in commodities. [So yes], we could have a hard landing in the economy. China has a colossal credit bubble and no one knows how it’s going to unwind.”
A little over a week ago, Marc Faber dialed in from Thailand to chat with Bloomberg TV about the outlook for US equities, the American economy, and USTs in the new year.
The US is “already in a recession,” the incorrigible doomsayer said.
Stocks will head lower in 2016, Faber continued, taking the opportunity to mock the sellside penguin brigade for adopting a universally bullish take on markets going forward. “Well, I don’t think that the U.S. will continue to increase interest rates,” he concluded, before predicting what we’ve been saying for years, namely that in the end, the Fed may be forced to do an embarrassing about-face and return to ZIRP and eventually to QE. “In fact, given the weakness in the global economy and the deceleration of growth in the U.S., I would imagine that by next year the Fed will cut rates once again and launch QE4.” Continue reading »
In perhaps the most shocking of mea culpas seen in modern financial history, former Dallas Fed head Richard Fisher unleashed some seriously uncomfortable truthiness during a 5-minute confessional interview on CNBC. While talking heads attempt to blame China for recent US market volatility, Fisher explains “It is not China,” it is The Fed that is at fault: “What The Fed did, and I was part of it, was front-loaded an enormous rally market rally in order to create a wealth effect… and an uncomfortable digestive period is likely now.” Simply put he concludes, there can’t be much more accomodation, “The Fed is a giant weapon that has no ammunition left.”
Must watch, when a shocked Simon Hobbs (at 5:10) is unforgettable: “Will The Fed come on and say ‘we’re sorry, we over-inflated the market’ when it crashes?” We doubt it.
Here is CNBC’s higher quality video, which for some reason seems to have edited out some of the more informative parts of the interview. Continue reading »
Moments ago, in its latest Q4 GDP revision, the Atlanta Fed just pulled the rug from under the economy (and the market now that bad news for the economy is bad news for stocks), and slashed its latest quarterly forecast by another 50%, from 1.3% to a barely positive 0.7%. In other words, according to the Atlanta Fed, Janet Yellen launched a rate hike cycle in a quarter when GDP will be just 0.7%, and which when averaged across the prior 3 quarters, would mean that the US will have grown at just 1.8% in 2015, a 25% drop from the 2.4% GDP growth in 2014.
If the stock market crash of last Thursday and Friday had all happened on one day, it would have been the 7th largest single day decline in U.S. history. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 367 points after finishing down 253 points on Thursday. The overall decline of 620 points between the two days would have been the 7th largest single day stock market crash ever experienced in the United States if it had happened within just one trading day. If you will remember, this is precisely what I warned would happen if the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. But when news of the rate hike first came out on Wednesday, stocks initially jumped. This didn’t make any sense at all, and personally I was absolutely stunned that the markets had behaved so irrationally. But then we saw that on Thursday and Friday the markets did exactly what we thought they would do. The chief economist at Gluskin Sheff, David Rosenberg, is calling the brief rally on Wednesday “a head-fake of enormous proportions“, and analysts all over Wall Street are bracing for what could be another very challenging week ahead. Continue reading »
In the end, the Fed did not surprise, and raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade in a widely telegraphed move while signaling that the pace of subsequent increases will be “gradual” and in line with previous projections. The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to set the new target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, up from zero to 0.25 percent.
It’s 2:00:01 pm and the Fed has just announced it will hike rates by 25 bps while using very dovish language to convey that just like “tapering was not tightening” in 2013, so “tightening isn’t really tightening”, and unleashing a massive buying order.
So far so good. But the real question is what does this mean for post-kneejerk market dynamics, and the one most important variable of all: liquidity. Continue reading »
Are we about to witness widespread panic in the global financial marketplace? This week is shaping up to be an absolutely critical week for global stocks. Coming into December, more than half of the 93 largest stock market indexes in the world were down more than 10 percent year to date, and last week stocks really started to slide all over the world. Here in the United States, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 600 points over the past week or so, and at this point it is down more than 1000 points from the peak of the market. That brings us to this week, during which the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the very first time since the last financial crisis. If that happens, that could potentially be enough to accelerate this “slide” into a full-blown crash.
They are going to layer their post-meeting statement with a steaming pile of if, ands & buts. It will exude an abundance of caution and a dearth of clarity.
Having judged that a 25 bps pinprick is warranted, the FOMC will then plant itself firmly in front of the great flickering dashboard in the Eccles Building. There it will repose to a regimen of “watchful waiting”, scouring the entrails of the “incoming data” to divine its next move. Continue reading »
“While funding continued to be available, such a large negative basis indicates potential market dislocations. And this may call into question how smoothly US dollar funding conditions will adjust in the event of an increase in US onshore interest rates. Similar pricing anomalies have also emerged in interest rate swap markets recently, raising related concerns.”
“QE2 moved Repo rates, on average, 2.7 basis points for every $100B in QE. So, one very rough estimate moved GC 8 basis points and the other 2.7 basis points per hundred billion. In order to move GC 25 basis points higher, in a very rough estimate, the Fed needs to drain between $310B and $800B in liquidity.”
After today’s market plunge, the result of what even Goldman admitted may have been a major policy error by the ECB, suddenly the Fed’s determination to hike rates in two weeks lies reeling on the ropes. After all, what the ECB did was an implicit tightening of reverse QE1 proportions (it is no accident that the EURUSD is soaring as much as it did in March 2009 when the Fed unleashed QE). Continue reading »
Trader and analyst Gregory Mannarino says the governments and bankers want war. Mannarino explains, “War is the goal. People need to understand here the goal of the world central banks is to bring us to war. So, they have a big, big reason to borrow cash into existence. This is it. The debt based economic model has got to be the most corrupt, evil and dastardly mechanism to be pushed down the throats of the entire world. They are going to do what they need to do and that means bring us to a full blown war, nuclear or whatever they need to do to keep this going. If they do not find the reasons to borrow cash into existence, creating refugee problems, leaving all the borders open, war, you name it. . . . The world central banks have created a situation where they have to borrow cash into existence in perpetuity. They can never stop. If they do stop, it will cause a loss of human life greater than a nuclear exchange. So, they are stuck here. The lessor of the two evils here is to bring us to war. As horrible as that sounds, that is where we’re at.” Continue reading »
Financial expert Catherine Austin Fitts has long said before there is another big financial crash, there will be a big war. Fitts explains, “If you look at how fragile the geopolitics are, the danger, as I have always said, is that we go to violence, and then things really come unhinged. So, I’m worried about violence and war and kind of situation getting out of hand. That’s when you get the really dangerous scenarios.” Continue reading »
“We’re headed for a very severe monetary crisis and period of great instability — the very opposite of what has been experienced for the last six or seven years, when these markets have been effectively tranquilized by the central banks and their massive quantitative easing and intrusion into financial markets..
But it’s going to change because we’re reaching the point where they (central banks) are out of dry powder. I don’t think the central banks have infinite power. I don’t think they can keep interest rates suppressed forever if confidence is lost.
Remember, there are trillions of dollars of bonds out there. There is something like $225 trillion of total debt in the world (public and private), and $90 trillion of that is traded in one form or another. Continue reading »