I was absolutely stunned to learn that the Baltic Dry Shipping Index had plummeted to a new all-time record low of 504 at one point on Thursday. I have written a number of articles lately about the dramatic slowdown in global trade, but I didn’t realize that things had gotten quite this bad already. Not even during the darkest moments of the last financial crisis did the Baltic Dry Shipping Index drop this low. Something doesn’t seem to be adding up, because the mainstream media keeps telling us that the global economy is doing just fine. In fact, the Federal Reserve is so confident in our “economic recovery” that they are getting ready to raise interest rates. Of course the truth is that there is no “economic recovery” on the horizon. In fact, as I wrote about yesterday, there are signs all around us that are indicating that we are heading directly into another major economic crisis. This staggering decline of the Baltic Dry Shipping Index is just another confirmation of what is directly ahead of us. Continue reading »
“The UK’s remaining coal-fired power stations will be shut by 2025 with their use restricted by 2023,” says this article from the BBC.
Relying on “polluting” coal is “perverse,” says Energy Secretary Amber Rudd.
Instead, she will recommend that gas become “central” to the UK’s future, with building new gas-fired power stations an “imperative”. Continue reading »
H/t reader squodgy:
“Brexit a non event. YES!!!
So let’s escape while we still can.”
French investment bank Natixis sides with rebellious islanders.
The UK will hold a referendum by the end of 2017 on whether or not to stay in the EU. No country has ever left the EU. The fact that the now second largest economy in the EU is threatening to do so because its people may want out has set off a bout of hot-and-heavy scaremongering. Continue reading »
One of the World’s largest independent sustainable agriculture medias, Sustainable Pulse, has been banned by the Chinese government in all of mainland China, shortly after ChemChina launched a failed $ 42 billion bid to buy the largest Global pesticide company – Syngenta.
The ban on Sustainable Pulse has been reacted to with anger by Chinese GMO-Free activists, who have used the media as a source of independent GMO and pesticide news over the last 4 years. Chinese sustainable agriculture expert Xie Xuren stated; “This is a disaster for freedom of information for all those who care about safe food and pesticide free agriculture in China.” Continue reading »
From the article:
“We wonder how long until someone finally asks the all important question regarding the Islamic State: who is the commodity trader breaching every known law of funding terrorism when buying ISIS crude, almost certainly with the tacit approval by various “western alliance” governments, and why is it that these governments have allowed said middleman to continue funding ISIS for as long as it has?”
The question of how the Islamic State funds its sprawling caliphate has been discussed in the past: we first broke down the primary driver of ISIS revenue well over a year ago, in September 2014, when we explained that “ISIS uses oil wealth to help finance its terror operations.”
Daily Signal’s Kelsey Harkness explained the breakdown as follows: Continue reading »
Back in May we first introduced our readers to the FX manipulation practice known as “last look.” Wait, what’s that? This is what we said:
The last look practice is a legacy of over-the-phone currency trading, when traders would take a final check of the market before executing an order. It has survived even as foreign-exchange trading moved onto electronic platforms, leaving banks with the option to back out of an order after it was accepted by a client. Continue reading »
BlackRock Inc., the world’s largest asset manager, is winding down a global macro hedge fund after losses and investor redemptions eroded assets. The reason for the liquidation: losses of 9.4% this year, cited by Bloomberg according to an October investor document, leading to the worst year for the asset manager since inception in 2003. The fund, which had $4.6 billion in assets just two years ago, has shrunk to less than $1 billion as of Nov. 1.
AP reports today:
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is stressing the need to review the unconventional monetary policies that central banks around the world deployed in response to the 2008 global financial crisis.
She said Thursday that the post-crisis period offers policymakers an opportunity to assess the effectiveness of the tools and better understand the impact of new regulation. Continue reading »
H/t reader squodgy:
“It’s all been true, there is a recovery, the horizon is blue & all is well.”
Insolvency Index: capital and Wales enjoy largest decreases as key sectors show recovery
London and Wales showed large falls in company failures as insolvencies across the UK dropped year on year for the third quarter in a row.
The Exaro Insolvency Index reveals that London enjoyed the largest fall, as the number of companies that filed one or more insolvency notices dropped in the three months to September by 22.2 per cent compared to the same period in 2014, decreasing from 1,742 to 1,355. Continue reading »
With new and pending sales tumbling and lumber prices down, yesterday’s drop in homebuilders sentiment – from 10 year highs! – appears justified entirely now as Housing Starts collapsed 11% in October to the weakest level since March. This is the biggest miss (and MoM drop) since Feb. Multi-family unit starts plunged 25.5% MoM as single-family dropped just 2.5%. Starts in The West and South plunged as The Midwest saw a 30.8% collapse in housing completions. Building Permits rose 4.1% after tumbling 4.8% in September but SAAR remains notably below the Q2 cycle peak levels (1.337mm) at around 1.15mm homes (with multi-family permits rising 6.8% MoM).…
The Baltic Dry Index staged a recovery mid-year, hopefully rising amid promises of stability in China and an ‘escape’ velocity USA. All that centrally-planned hope and hype faith has been eviscerated on the altar of economic reality. With no ability to directly manipulate the Baltic Dry Index to ‘pretend’ everything is awesome, it remains among the best ‘real’ indicators of the state of the global economy… and it’s in the toilet…
From hope to nope…
The Batlc Dry nears all-time record lows once again…
In fact, for this time of year, it has never been lower… Continue reading »
Earlier this morning, as I was just minding my own business reading what appeared to be an uneventful Wall Street Journal article titled, Justice Department Gets Tougher on Corporate Crime, I came across a stunning revelation. Continue reading »
Donald Trump catapulted himself into the spotlight with his gilded real estate ventures and vibrant personality. The latter is what has made his show “The Apprentice” such a huge success.
And over the years, he’s had an opinion or two about the business world.
“In the end, you’re measured not by how much you undertake but by what you finally accomplish,” Trump once said.
But like any successful business person, Trump has had his share of setbacks. Here, we present to you 12 Trump businesses that went belly up or no longer exist.
Yesterday, just before the open, to help allay any confusion about what the market would do and how to trade it, we provided the perspective of the biggest fade in market history, Dennis Gartman, who was quite bearish.
Clearly we wish that we had had the presence of mind to have been aggressively net short of equities, but we did not, nor are we that lucky. We shall, however, look upon any intra-day rally in the market as a point at which to become modestly shorter of the market. That is, given the range thus far with the low in the S&P futures just below 2000 in early trading, and given that the futures are now 2015, this is sufficient to sell into to become slightly net shorter of the market. This shall be especially worthy of selling into given that the futures “gapped” lower of course and given that the “gap” has been closed on this modest rally from the lows.
As we further said, “we note this just in case the BOJ needed one more reason to buy a few yards of USDJPY and send the S&P right back up to 2100.” Continue reading »
I think you would do well to watch this video below.
Too big to fail is a seven-year phenomenon created by the most powerful central banks to bolster the largest, most politically connected US and European banks. More than that, it’s a global concern predicated on that handful of private banks controlling too much market share and elite central banks infusing them with boatloads of cheap capital and other aid.
Synthetic bank and market subsidization disguised as ‘monetary policy’ has spawned artificial asset and debt bubbles – everywhere. The most rapacious speculative capital and associated risk flows from these power-players to the least protected, or least regulated, locales. Continue reading »
China and Russia too are run by TPTB.
To them this is a big game of chess and the people are the pawns that will be sacrificed.
While the world was following the tragic events unfolding on Friday night in France where hundreds of innocent civilians were killed or injured, an important economic development took place at the IMF, whose staff and head Christine Lagarde, officially greenlighted the acceptance of China’s currency – the Renminbi, or Yuan – into the IMF’s foreign exchange basket, also known as the Special Drawing Rights.
As Reuters summarizes, the recommendation paves the way for the Fund’s executive board, which has the final say, to place the yuan on a par with the U.S. dollar Japanese yen, British pound and euro at a meeting scheduled for November 30. At this point only an explicit veto by US political interests deep behind the stage can derail the CNY’s ascension into the SDR. The United States, the Fund’s biggest shareholder, has said it would back the yuan’s inclusion if it met the IMF’s criteria, a U.S. Treasury spokesperson said, adding: “We will review the IMF’s paper in that light.” Continue reading »
For the latest bit of evidence that global trade is indeed in free fall, look no further than the container terminals at the ports of Los Angeles, Long Beach, Calif. and around New York harbor which handle more than 50% of seaborne freight coming into the US. As it turns out, “peak” season turned out to be anything but.
Roughly 21 tonnes, or 685,652 troy ounces of gold in .999 fine kilo bars, was withdrawn, net of a small deposit of 27,328 ounces, from the Brinks warehouse in Hong Kong yesterday.
To put that into some perspective, that is the same amount of all gold in the entire JPM warehouse in the US.
Brutal news is pouring in from pretty much everywhere.
US retail sales are flat and wholesale prices are falling. Big retail chains are missing on earnings and seeing their shares plunge.
Chinese nonperforming loans are soaring while imports, car sales and steel production are way down. Continue reading »
The world’s biggest hedge fund, Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates got into some hot water in the past few months when it was accused by many members of the underperforming “hedge fund hotel” club for being the “risk parity” catalyst that sent the market tumbling in August, and perhaps for being the catalyst for the August 24 market crash.
And while the bulk of Bridgewater’s asset are in various commodities and futures, most of which are never reported to the public, earlier today it did disclose its long holdings in public equities when it filed its latest 13F. Perhaps those accusing Bridgewater of being the market-moving catalyst did have a point, because after posting a total AUM of $10.8 billion at June, this total declined by a whopping 31% to just $7.5 billion as of September 30.
Here is what Brigewater was dumping (and adding). Continue reading »
What do you say to people that have completely lost all hope that things will ever get any better? The mountains of Appalachia stretch all the way from southern New York to northern Mississippi, and nestled within those mountains are dozens upon dozens of little towns that are so impoverished that they look like they have been through a war. Thanks to Barack Obama’s relentless assault on the coal industry and the ongoing collapse of our industrial infrastructure, Appalachia has lost millions of good paying jobs over the past several decades. Today, more than 40 percent of the population is living in poverty in some areas of eastern Kentucky, and addiction to “hillbilly heroin” (Oxycontin) is absolutely out of control throughout the region. Yes, poverty is on the rise all over America, but it has especially been cruel to those that make the mountains of Appalachia their home. Continue reading »
So many of the exact same patterns that we witnessed just before the stock market crash of 2008 are playing out once again right before our eyes. Most of the time, a stock market crash doesn’t just come out of nowhere. Normally there are specific leading indicators that we can look for that will tell us if major trouble is on the horizon. One of these leading indicators is the junk bond market. Right now, a closely watched high yield bond ETF known as JNK is sitting at 35.77. If it falls below 35, that will be a major red flag, and it will be the first time that it has done so since 2009. As you can see from this chart, JNK started crashing in June and July of 2008 – well before equities started crashing later that year. A crash in junk bonds almost always precedes a major crash in stocks, and so this is something that I am watching carefully.
And there is a reason why junk bonds are crashing. In 2015 we have seen the most corporate bond downgrades since the last financial crisis, and corporate debt defaults are absolutely skyrocketing. The following comes from a recent piece by Porter Stansberry… Continue reading »
Two months ago I published a piece titled, Luxury London Home Sales Plunge 26% – Has this Mega Real Estate Bubble Finally Burst?. I wrote:
It appears the music may have finally stopped for one of the world’s largest luxury real estate bubbles: London.
It’s well known that foreign oligarchs love London real estate as a means to launder funds, typically “earned” by soaking their host countries dry via corruption and fraud. This has caused absurd and irrational spikes in high-end residential real estate in the English capital, as well as a flood of new construction.
With emerging markets now completely collapsing, the seemingly endless flood of foreign money is drying up, and with it, London real estate.
So has the London real estate bubble popped? Probably.
“the seasonally adjusted labour force estimates from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for October sound incredible and they should be treated as just that: not credible. Don’t believe politicians as they gloat and claim credit. Don’t believe the wire services when they report the estimates as fact…. The former chief statistician recently said the data was not worth the paper it was written on.”
With the ‘paper’ price of gold are a somewhat unprecedented barrage of selling currently (down 9 of the last 11 days) to 4-month lows, one could be forgiven for thinking that demand for the precious metal is dropping. However, as almost every nation in the world (ex US) is devaluing their currency, The World Gold Council reports that physical gold demand has risen dramatically with US gold Eagle coin sales at the highest levels since the financial crisis.‘Physical’ Demand is exploding…
One thing that became abundantly clear after Alexis Tsipras sold out the Greek referendum “no” back in the summer after a weekend of “mental waterboarding” in Brussels was that the public’s perception of the once “revolutionary” leader would never be the same. And make no mistake, that’s exactly what Berlin, Brussels, and the IMF wanted.
By turning the screws on the Greek banking sector and bringing the country to the brink of ruin, the troika indicated its willingness to “punish” recalcitrant politicians who pursue anti-austerity policies. On the one hand, countries have an obligation to pay back what they owe, but on the other, the subversion of the democratic process by using the purse string to effect political change is a rather disconcerting phenomenon and we expect we’ll see it again with regard to the Socialists in Portugal. Continue reading »
Tim Cook, chief executive of Apple, makes bold prediction about the death of cash as he promotes Apple Pay alternative
The next generation of children born in Britain “will not know what money is”, the boss of Apple has predicted.
Tim Cook, the chief executive of technology giant, forecast the death of cash by the time current university students have a family. Continue reading »
Over the past year many have been focusing on the collapse in commodity prices and speculating how this will impact China’s rapidly slowing economy (and reflexively, how much of this is driven by China’s rapidly slowing economy). They may be focusing on the wrong thing.
Because while it is now a virtual certainly that China’s commodity sector will undergo a wave on unprecedented business failures, which should (but may not) be accompanied by a default wave unlike anything China has seen before (quite literally: until last year, China had never seen an actual corporate default, as the government would always step in and bail out the debtor) a scarier prospect emerges when looking at what has been the biggest risk factor for China since day one, and the reason why China’s economy has to keep growing at 7% every year just to absorb the millions of new workers every year: an angry population, and millions of workers who suddenly see their wages plunge – or are left without a job – and turn violent on short notice. Continue reading »