Feb 18

Draghi Satan

- “In The End Capital Controls Will Probably Have To Be Imposed” – Eurogroup Official (ZeroHedge, Feb 17, 2015):

With less than 24 hours until the ECB’s meeting at which Mario Draghi and company are set to decide if i) they will increase the current Greek emergency liquidity allotment from €65 billion as a result of the ongoing bank deposit run or ii) reduce – or even outright cancel it – to send Tsipras a message that the time for negotiations is over, Europe is no longer playing Mr. nice guy. In fact, judging by the latest report in Reuters, which may well be nothing but another planted trial balloon (in the aftermath of today’s latest Telegraph revelations one should read everything presented in the media, here certainly included, with a cape-size ship full of salt) Greece can kiss goodbye not only any a loan extension without a bailout “programme” resumption, but also any hope that tomorrow’s its ELA will be increased.  Continue reading »

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Feb 17

From the article:

“In short: anyone betting that tomorrow the ECB will extend the Greek last-ditch source of liquidity no questions asked, may want to not hold their breath. And once Greek ELA access is withdrawn, well… Cyprus was called a “blueprint” for a reason.”


Mario-Draghi-laughing

- As Bank Run Accelerates, Greek Depositors Pray To Saint Mario (ZeroHedge, Feb 17, 2015):

As we have consistently shown over the past month, the battle between Greece and the Eurozone is all about leverage, and specifically who has more of it. Furthermore, as we laid it out previously, the best way to quantify this duel of leverage is through two easily observable metrics: the level of Eurozone risk asset prices (if Greek contagion fears were dominant, the Eurostoxx would be tumbling), and the pace of deposit outflows from Greek banks (if the Greeks fear the ECB is about to yank all money they would pull their cash from the bank, in the process forcing Tsipras and Varoufakis to the negotiating table willing to sign anything Europe throws at them).

Which is why in a Eurozone in which all price levels are now controlled by the ECB, it is not surprising that no amount of huffing and puffing has managed to derail the Stoxx or the Dax even briefly from their relentless surge to all-time highs. Continue reading »

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Feb 16

- David Stockman: The Global Economy Has Entered The Crack-Up Phase (PeakProsperity, Feb 15, 2015):

Few people understand the global economy and its (mis)management better than David Stockman — former director of the OMB under President Reagan, former US Representative, best-selling author of The Great Deformation, and veteran financier.

David is now loudly warning that events have entered the crack-up phase, which he predicts will be defined by the following 4 developments: Continue reading »

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Feb 13

- Stealth Greek Bank Run Continues: ECB Hikes Emergency Lending To EUR 65 Billion (ZeroHedge, Feb 12, 2015):

It would appear the un-sourced rumors of Greek banks having used up their Emergency line of credit with the ECB are true. Following a hastily put together conference calls this morning:

  • *ECB RAISES GREECE ELA ALLOWANCE TO EU65BN: FAZ

Up from the previous EUR59.5 Billion. It appears the stealth bank run in Greece is showing no signs of slowing.

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Feb 10

Yanis Varoufakis Sums Up Europe In One Sentence

Varoufakis Blasts ECB “Has Lost Control Of Monetary Policy” As Germany Tells Greece: “There Is No Way Out” (ZeroHedge, Feb 9, 2015):

“There is no way out” for Greece from its treaty obligations warns German lawmaker Michael Fuchs (Angela Merkel’s deputy caucus chairman) telling Bloomberg TV that conditions set for Greece by The Troika (EU, ECB, IMF) for bailout funds “have to be fulfilled…. That’s it, very simple.” The Greeks remain adamant that they will not ask for an extension to the bailout mechanism with both Tsipras and Varoufakis confirming that a bridge agreement is required and the latter adding “the ECB has lost control of monetary policy,” demanding the Troika structure come to an end. Then German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble exclaimed at the G-20 meeting that “Greece either has to find a way to get bridge financing, or, if they want to do it with us, they need a program,” seeming to push the door open to possible Russian financial aid for Greece as Europe’s pivot to Putin appears to be rising. Continue reading »

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Feb 09

Flashback:

Here Is What Happens After Greece Defaults (ZeroHedge, May 21, 2011):

What happens when Greece defaults. Here are a few things:

  • Every bank in Greece will instantly go insolvent.
  • The Greek government will nationalise every bank in Greece.
  • The Greek government will forbid withdrawals from Greek banks.

- Greek Euro Exit: 60% Currency Devaluation, Default, Banking Sector Collapse (Forbes, Sep. 06, 2011)

How can the Greek people protect themselves?

- Belarus Devalues Its Currency By 56% Overnight, Against Every Currency Out There (ZeroHedge, May 23, 2011):

Luckily for those who held their “money” in the form of gold and silver, they just got an instantaneous 56% value preservation and a relative boost in their purchasing power with just one central bank announcement.


grexit-3

- If Greece Exits, Here Is What Happens (Redux) (ZeroHedge, Feb 8, 2015):

Now that the possibility of a Greek exit from the euro is back to being topic #1 of discussion, just as it was back in the summer of 2012 and the fall of 2011, and investors are propagandized by groundless speculation posited by journalists who have never used excel in their lives and are merely paid mouthpieces of bigger bank interests, it is time to rewind to a step by step analysis of precisely what will happen in the moments before Greece announces the EMU exit, how the transition from pre- to post- occurs, and the aftermath of what said transition would entail, courtesy of one of the smarter minds out there at the time (before his transition to a more status quo supportive tone), Citi’s Willem Buiter, who pontificated precisely on this topic previously. Three words: “not unequivocally good.” Continue reading »

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Feb 06

GReeCe 2015...

- Greece: The Big Picture Update, And Why Deutsche Bank Thinks Europe Will Fold (ZeroHedge, Feb 5, 2015):

The Greek situation summaries Greece by Deutsche Bank’s George Saravelos have consistently been among the best in the entire sellside. His latest Greek update, which is a must read for anyone who hasn’t been following the fluid developments out of southeast Europe, which fluctuate not on an hourly but on a minute basis, does not disappoint.

But while his summary of events is great, what is of far greater significance is his conclusion, namely that ultimately Europe will fold: “we consider the most likely outcome to be a Eurogroup offer of a new Third program” and “given that the current program expires this February the offer to negotiate a new Third program may provide political room for the government to sit on the negotiating table. At the same time such an offer is very likely to be attached to strict conditions, with the willingness to accommodate t-bill issuance an open question. Developments overnight suggest that this has become less likely, imposing maximum pressure on the government to reach agreement within a matter of weeks.” Continue reading »

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Feb 04

Mario-Draghi-laughing

- ECB Pulls The Trigger: Blocks Funding To Greece Via Debt Collateral – Full Statement (ZeroHedge, Feb 4, 2015):

Just what the market had hoped would not happen…

  • *ECB SAYS IT LIFTS WAIVER ON GREEK GOVERNMENT DEBT AS COLLATERAL
  • *ECB SAYS IT CAN’T ASSUME SUCCESSFUL CONCLUSION OF GREECE REVIEW

What this means simply is that since Greek banks are now unable to pledge Greek bonds as collateral and fund themselves, and liquidity is about to evaporate, the ECB has effectively just given a green light for Greek bank runs, as suddenly it has removed, both mathematically but worse politically, a key support pillar from underneath the already bailed out Greek banking system, (or merely a negotiating move to let Greece see just what kind of chaos this will create ahead of the big D-Day on Feb 25th when ELA could be withdrawn). Continue reading »

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Feb 04

Mario-Draghi-laughing

First Germany, Now ECB Rejects “Latest Greek Bailout Plan” (ZeroHedge, Feb 3, 2015):

So much for the Greek “conciliatory proposal” story in which Greece was said to “drop” its debt writedown request, driven by yesterday’s FT article, and the catalyst for Monday’s late day market surge.

As reported earlier today, first it was Germany’s turn when it “threw up all over Varoufakis proposal, calling Greek plan “Half-Baked.” And now, somewhat poetically, is the FT’s turn to yank the other stool from underneath those who saw yesterday’s development as even remotely meaningful as opposed to merely attempts by Greece’s restructuring advisor Lazard to thrown anything at the wall and see what sticks, following a report that “the European Central Bank is resisting a key element of the Greek government’s new rescue plan, potentially leaving Athens with no source of outside funding when its international bailout expires at the end of the month.”

Continue reading »

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Jan 31

varr8

- Caught On Tape: Dijsselbloem To Varoufakis: “You Just Killed Troika” (ZeroHedge, Jan 31, 2015):

Amid ‘turmoiling’ stock markets on Friday, CNBC’s Simon Hobbs summed up the status quo’s thinking on the new Greek leadership when he noted, somewhat angrily and shocked, “The Greeks are not even trying to reassure the markets,” seeming to have entirely forgotten (and who can blame him in this new normal the world has been force-fed for 6 years) that political leaders are elected for the good of the people (by the people) not for the markets. Yesterday saw the clearest example yet of Europe’s anger that the Greeks may choose their own path as opposed to following the EU’s non-sovereign leadership’s demands when the most uncomfortable moment ever caught on tape – the moment when Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem (he of the “template” foot in mouth disease) stood up at the end of the EU-Greece press conference, awkwardly shook hands with Greece’s new finance minister, and whispered…”you have just killed the Troika,” to which Varoufakis responded… “wow!”

As Keep Talking Greece reports,

Continue reading »

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Jan 31

You can’t make this stuff up!


mortgage

- In Denmark You Are Now Paid To Take Out A Mortgage (ZeroHedge, Jan 30, 2015):

With NIRP raging in the Eurozone and over €1.5 trillion in European government bonds trading with negative yields, many were wondering when any of this perverted bond generosity will spill over to other debtors, not just Europe’s insolvent governments (who can only print negative interest debt because of the ECB’s backstop that it will buy any piece of garbage for sale in the doomed monetary union). In fact just earlier today we, rhetorically, asked a logical – in as much as nothing is logical in the new normal – question:

Little did we know that just minutes after our tweet, we would learn that at least one place is already paying homeowners to take out a mortgage. That’s right – the negative rate mortgage is now a reality.

Thanks of Mario Draghi’s generosity with “other generations’ slavery”, and following 3 consecutive rate cuts by the Danish Central Bank, a local bank – Nordea Credit – is now offering a mortgage with a negative interest rate! This means, according to DR.dk, that Nordea have had to pay instead of charging interest to to a handful of customers, says housing economist at Nordea Kredit, Lise Nytoft Bergmann for Finance. Continue reading »

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Jan 30

Mario-Draghi-Just-Evil

- AXA Investment Managaer Explains Why The ECB’s QE Has Already Failed Using “Widget Makers” (Zerohedge, Jan 29, 2015):

“People say, ‘Sell government bonds and lend money to widget manufacturers.’ It doesn’t really work like that.” Hayes says, adding that “Low yields don’t necessarily mean more lending to the real economy; time and confidence are key elements and last 6 years have shown QE can’t control those.” In short: it hasn’t even started and QE is already a complete failure. Good job central-planners.

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Jan 26

- Get Ready For Negative Interest Rates In The US (ZeroHedge, Jan 24, 2015):

With Fed mouthpiece Jon Hilsenrath warning - in no lesser status-quo narrative-deliverer than The Wall Street Journal - that The ECB’s actions (and pre-emptive collapse in the EUR) means the U.S. economy must deal with a rapidly strengthening dollar that will make American goods more expensive abroad, potentially slowing both U.S. growth and inflation; and Treasury Secretary Lew coming out his crypt to mention “unfair FX moves,” it appears The Fed (and powers that be) are worrying about King Dollar. This suggests, as Mises Canada’s Patrick Barron predicts, the Fed will start charging negative interest rates on bank reserve accounts as the final tool in the war on savings and wealth in order to spur the Keynesian goal of increasing “aggregate demand”. If savers won’t spend their money, the government will take it from them.

As The Wall Street Journal explains,

The European Central Bank’s launch of an aggressive program this week to buy more than €1 trillion in bonds poses important tests for the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve.

Europe’s new program of money printing—and the resulting fall in the euro—means the U.S. economy must deal with a rapidly strengthening dollar that will make American goods more expensive abroad. Continue reading »

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Jan 25

mario-draghi
ECB president Mario Draghi is presented with the Prussian spiked helment at Bild’s offices

- Bunch of Criminals! (The Automatic Earth, Jan 23, 2015):

I was going to start out saying Thursday was the saddest day in Europe in 50 years, or something like that, because of the insane and completely nonsensical largesse the ECB permits itself to launch, aimed at once again saving a banking system, but which will not only not help the European people, it will make things even much worse than they already are.

I’ve said many times that the EU in its present form should be dismantled tomorrow morning (even though it’s not the same tomorrow morning anymore), and if Draghi’s $1.1 million x million ‘stimulus’ should make anything clear, it’s that the dismantling gets more urgent by the day. Continue reading »

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Jan 25

Bazooka man Draghi, taking aim at the euro

- Bouncing Rubble (Alhambra Investment Partners, Jan 23, 2015):

The Keynesian revival that is currently underway in the backrooms and hallways of assorted world governments is being somewhat replicated in Europe this week. It is all predicated on the position that all previous forms of “stimulus” from the fiscal side were not the right size, composition or color for that matter and thus the lack of recovery can be attributed to the impurity of the Keynesian solutions. That is further augmented in especially the Krugman view of “austerity” which has supposedly undercut all the good deeds done by central banks.

Thursday’s press conference with Mario Draghi announcing the QE program ran dangerously into interfering with that Krugman view, while also keeping within the spirit of the “purity” argument. Toward the end of the question and answer session, the ECB’s chief was asked about hyperinflation, as if this latest balance sheet expansion might nudge Europe closer to Weimar. Continue reading »

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Jan 24

Bazooka man Draghi, taking aim at the euro

- The Lunatics Are Running the Asylum: Draghi’s Money Printing Bazooka (Acting-Man, Jan 22, 2015):

Conclusion:

Given that already surging money supply growth rates in the euro area are now bound to increase at an even stronger rate, economic activity as measured by aggregate statistics is bound to pick up eventually. It is always important to keep in mind though that quantitatively measurable “activity” as such is not telling us anything about its quality. The boom prior to the 2008 crisis was also characterized by a measurable increase in “activity”, but as it turned out, most of it was merely a complete waste of scarce capital.

There is no reason to assume that this time will be different. These boom-bust sequences will continue until the economy is structurally undermined to such an extent that monetary intervention cannot even create the illusory prosperity of a capital-consuming boom anymore.

The bankers applauding Draghi’s actions today will come to rue them tomorrow.

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Jan 24

- Mario Draghi: Charlatan Of The Apparatchiks (David Stockman’s Contra Corner, Jan 22, 2015):

Well, he finally launched “whatever it takes” and that marks an inflection point. Mario Draghi has just proved that the servile apparatchiks who run the world’s major central banks will stop at nothing to appease the truculent gamblers they have unleashed in the casino. And that means there will eventually be a monumental crash landing because the bubble beneficiaries are now commanding the bubble makers.

There is not one rational reason why the ECB should be purchasing $1.24 trillion of existing sovereign bonds and other debt securities during the next 18 months. Forget all the ritual incantation emanating from the central bankers about fighting deflation and stimulating growth. The ECB has launched into a massive bond buying campaign for the sole purpose of redeeming Mario Draghi’s utterly foolish promise to make speculators stupendously rich by the simple act of buying now (and on huge repo leverage, too) what he guaranteed the ECB would be buying latter.

So today’s program amounts to a giant bailout in the form of a big fat central bank “bid” designed to prop up prices in the immense parking lot of French, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese etc. debt that has been accumulated by hedge funds, prop traders and other rank speculators since mid-2012. Never before have so few—-perhaps several thousand banks and funds—-been pleasured with so many hundreds of billions of ill-gotten gain. Robin Hood is spinning madly in his grave.

Continue reading »

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Jan 23

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Jan 23

- What ECB QE Will Do For The World (In 1 Word & 1 Simple Chart) (ZeroHedge, Jan 22, 2015):

Nothing…

  • *DRAGHI SAYS TODAY’S MEASURES WILL BE EFFECTIVE
  • *DRAGHI SAYS TODAY’S MEASURES WILL BOLSTER INFLATION
  • *DRAGHI CITES SIGNALING EFFECT ON INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

Signal This!!

20150122_ECBQE

“Different this time?” or “Einsteinian Insanity”?

With The ECB set to announce a QE4EVA-esque bond-buying initiative within the next hour or two, we thought it worth looking at just what The Fed’s balance-sheet experiment did for inflation expectations (the key narrative that is driving Draghi’s decision) and economic growth (what every politician is demanding Draghi help with)…

The answer… Nothing!!

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Jan 22

Super Mario The Magician
Source


Mario-Draghi-Just-Evil

- Mario Draghi Unveils €60 Billion Per Month QE Through September 2016 With Partial Risk-Sharing: Live Conference Webcast (ZeroHedge, Jan 22, 2015):

From “whatever it takes” to OMT to “discussing” bond purchases, with European interest rates at record (incomprehensible) lows (apart from Greece) and EURUSD at 11-year lows (down 25 handles in the last 8 months), Mario Draghi looks set to unleash interventionist ‘hell’ on the investing public in Europe with EUR50 billion (plus plus) of ECB QE per month for as long as it takes.

Priced-in?

20150122_ECB

And then there’s this:

  • *MERKEL SAYS DEBT CRISIS ‘MORE OR LESS UNDER CONTROL,’ NOT OVER
  • *MERKEL SAYS ECB IS MAKING AN INDEPENDENT DECISION TODAY

Live Feed below (in case of error, here is a link to the source webcast): Continue reading »

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