Dec 04

Related info:

- PIMCO Paid Bill Gross & Mohamed El-Erian Over $500 MILLION Dollars In 2013 Bonuses


It’s All Coming To An End, Bill Gross Warns (ZeroHedge, Dec 4, 2014):

Say what you want about Bill Gross, but the legendary bond investor is absolutely spot on in the following paragraph from his latest, December, investment outlook:

How could they? How could policymakers have allowed so much debt to be created in the first place, and then failed to regulate their own system accordingly? How could they have thought that money printing and debt creation could create wealth instead of just more and more debt? How could fiscal authorities have stood by and attempted to balance budgets as opposed to borrowing cheaply and investing the proceeds in infrastructure and innovation? It has been a nursery rhyme experience for sure, but more than likely without a fairytale ending.

Here is the full letter (link): Continue reading »

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Nov 15

- Italy’s Grillo Rages “We Are Not At War With ISIS Or Russia, We Are At War With The ECB” (ZeroHedge, Nov 14,  2014):

Next week, Italy’s Beppe Grillo – the leader of the Italian Five Star Movement – will start collecting signatures with the aim of getting a referendum in Italy on leaving the euro “as soon as possible,” just as was done in 1989. As Grillo tells The BBC in this brief but stunning clip, “we will leave the Euro and bring down this system of bankers, of scum.” With two-thirds of Parliament apparently behind the plan, Grillo exclaims “we are dying, we need a Plan B to this Europe that has become a nightmare –  and we are implementing it,” raging that “we are not at war with ISIS or Russia! We are at war with the European Central Bank,” that has stripped us of our sovereignty.

 

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Nov 03

- WHeN MoNeY DiES… (ZeroHedge, Nov 2, 2014):

Japan - When Money Dies

ECB- When Money Dies1

Fed - When Money Dies

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Oct 31

- The Wrath of Draghi: First German Bank Hits Savers with ‘Negative Interest Rates’ (Wolf Street, Oct 30, 2014):

Deutsche Skatbank, a division of VR-Bank Altenburger Land, which was founded in 1859, is not the biggest bank in Germany, but it’s the first bank to confirm what German savers have been dreading for a while: the wrath of Draghi.

Retail and business customers with over €500,000 on deposit as of November 1 will earn a “negative interest rate” of 0.25%. In less euphemistic terms, they have to pay 0.25% per annum to the bank for the privilege of handing the bank their hard-earned money or their business cash. Continue reading »

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Oct 28

- When Stress Tests Fail – Italian Banks Are Collapsing (ZeroHedge, Oct 27, 2014):

Despite the ban on short-sales – which has never worked in the past to do anything but instil fear in traders’ holding long positions – Italian banks are in free-fall following the utter failure of Draghi’s stress tests to encourage confidence in the European banking system.

  • INTESA, UBI, UNICREDIT, MONTE PASCHI SUSPENDED IN MILAN, LIMIT DOWN

Given the post-“whatever-it-takes” world of domestic sovereign bond-buying, it is no surprise that Italian govvie risk is jumping higher and the FTSEMIB is plunging.

“A relief rally would not be justified,” said Michael Woischneck, a portfolio manager at Lampe Asset Management in Dusseldorf, Germany. “There are still a lot of problems to fix, and Italian banks still have a lot of work to do. Even for the banks that passed, what is there to be relieved about? They still have to find a business model and figure out how to get unanswered questions that a stress test just cannot answer.”

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Oct 27

One can’t make this up:

The scenario of deflation is not there because indeed we don’t consider that deflation is going to happen.”
- Vítor Constâncio, Vice-President of the ECB


- The Chart That Crushes All Credibility Of The ECB’s Latest Stress Test (ZeroHedge, Oct 26, 2014):

While we would be the last to comment on the ECB’s laughable forecasting capabilities, we do have to note that there is a bit of a disconnect between the ECB’s projections of Eurozone inflation for 2014, 2015 and 2016 as presented in its March, June and September meetings

ECB inflation forecast history

… and what the market is currently anticipating based on 5Y5Y forwards which as we noted two weeks ago, recently hit an all time low.

20141009_infl

The reason we bring this up, is because just after the latest “most serious, most confidence inspiring” stress test was revealed, that perpetual troublemaker, the head of Germany’s IFO Institute, Hans-Werner Sinn, who relentlessly refuses to drink the European Kool Aid, pointed out something rather stunning. According to Bloomberg, in an emailed statement, Sinn said that “ECB avoided modelling a deflation scenario for southern Europe which explains why the capital shortfall was so small for many banks.” Continue reading »

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Oct 27

- ECB Announces Stress Test Results: Here Are The 25 Banks That Failed (ZeroHedge, Oct 26, 2014):

As was leaked on Friday, when the market surged on news that some 25 banks would fail the ECB’s third stress test (because in the New Normal more bank failures means more bailouts, means the richer get richest, means more wealth inequality), so moments ago the ECB reported that, indeed, some 25 banks failed the European Central Bank’s third attempt at collective confidence building and redrawing of a reality in which there is about €1 trillion in European NPLs, also known as the stress test.

The ECB’s results as summarized by the central bank: Continue reading »

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Oct 24

- Central Banker Admits Central Bank Policy Leads To Wealth Inequality (ZeroHedge, Oct 22, 2014):

Six years after QE started, and just about the time when we for the first time said that the primary consequence of QE would be unprecedented wealth and class inequality (in addition to fiat collapse, even if that particular bridge has not yet been crossed), even the central banks themselves – the very institutions that unleashed QE – are now admitting that the record wealth disparity in the world – surpassing that of the Great Depression and even pre-French revolution France - is caused by “monetary policy”, i.e., QE.

Case in point, during the Keynote speech by Yves Mersch, ECB executive board member, in Zurich on 17 October 2014 titled “Monetary policy and economic inequality” he said: Continue reading »

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Oct 23

 – Equity Levitation Stumbles After Second ECB Denial Of Corporate Bond Buying, Report Of 11 Stress Test Failures (ZeroHedge, Oct 22, 2014):

A day after a Reuters headline blast proclaimed that, in a stunning turn of events, the ECB which has barely started buying covered bond (of countries like Germany today for example, because the record low yielding Bunds clearly need help from the ECB) will also buy corporate bonds, sending the stock market soaring the most in 2014, it has now backtracked for the second time, and following a report from the FT yesterday which denied the report, the second denial came straight from Reuters itself which hours ago said that the ECB “has no concrete plans to buy corporate bonds, but this could be a way to prevent the bank from paying too much for just covered bonds and asset backed securities, ECB governing council member Luc Coene told Belgian media.” Continue reading »

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Oct 23

- Someone Didn’t Do The Math On The ECB’s Corporate Bond Purchasing “Trial Balloon” (ZeroHedge, Oct 22, 2014):

In other words, the “mega-leak” from the ECB will hardly scratch the surface in terms of the required liquidity injections, and certainly will be insufficient if at some point in the coming year, the BOJ finds it too has run out of collateral and is forced to wind down its own QE.

So after actually doing the math we wonder: how long before the market realizes Draghi’s latest bazooka was another water pistol, and how long until Reuters is forced to go with the nuclear leak – that the ECB is now considering monetizing ETFs and, gasp, stocks.

Because that, ladies and gentlemen, is the endgame here.

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Oct 20

euro-collapse

- Europe’s Fatal Flaw Laid Bare For All To See. Again. (The Automatic Earth, Oct , Oct 17, 2014):

markets, at the end of last week, sort of refound their – shaky – feet, oil up a dollar, EU exchanges up 3% or so, Greece even up over 7%, while interestingly gold didn’t move much at all during the wild week (no safe haven), and most movement was perhaps, through all the see-saw, in bonds. To sum up the week: panic followed by plunge protection teams. And now the ‘leaders’ hope plunge protection will save another day too.

And they may. Germany sinks a bit, but Germany is strong. US housing is at least not falling further, but US consumer spending stalls and drops. The deep dark weakness has not yet hit the big economies. But the nerves are back. Volatility is back with a vengeance. As it should. And that will paint the picture going forward, plunge protection or not. Da markets will come again and again and dare central banks to plunge protect. Continue reading »

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Oct 19

- Kudos To Herr Weidmann For Uttering Three Truths In One Speech (David Stockman’s Contra Corner, Oct 17, 2014):

Once in a blue moon officials commit truth in public, but the intrepid leader of Germany’s central bank has delivered a speech which let’s loose of three of them in a single go. Speaking at a conference in Riga, Latvia, Jens Weidmann put the kibosh on QE, low-flation and central bank interference in pricing of risky assets.

These days the Keynesian chorus in favor of policy activism is so boisterous that a succinct statement to the contrary rarely gets through – especially at Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street yarn factory. But here’s what penetrated even Brian Blackstone’s filters:

“The biggest bottleneck for growth in the euro area is not monetary policy, nor is it the lack of fiscal stimulus: it is the structural barriers that impede competition, innovation and productivity,” he said.

Continue reading »

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Oct 18

- Handelsblatt: “Four German Banks On The Brink” (ZeroHedge, Oct 17, 2014):

Several days ago we were confused why, out of the blue, a €1 billion loan BWIC appeared that was dumping German non-performing loans. After all, the whole point of the European “recovery” fable to date has been to deflect all the attention from the “pristine” German banks, up to an including world-record derivatives juggernaut Deutsche Bank,  and to focus on Greece and other insolvent peripheral European nation. Earlier today, German Handelsblatt provided an answer, when it reported that “four German banks are on the brink”, i.e., four banks of which three are known, HSH Nordbank, IKB and MunchenerHyp, will likely fail the ECB’s stress test whose results are due to be announced next Friday.

Keep in mind that this is a significant fraction of the 24 German banks that are undergoing the ECB’s Stress farce test. So one wonders: if one in six German banks is so unsafe even the ECB (which kept Cypriot banks going well past their insolvency) will give them a black stamp (because in Europe failing a bank stress test is first of all impossible since both Bankia and Dexia passed theirs with flying cololrs, but more importantly a death sentence), what does that leave for the rest of Europe’s banks, all of which are in far more dire shape than sleepy Germany?

In any case, here is Handlesblatt’s warning: Continue reading »

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Oct 13

- Why Tomorrow It Could Get Even Worse (ZeroHedge, Oct 13, 2014):

While today’s market dump was certainly dramatic, it was a function of the scant liquidity in the market (as we warned would be the case first thing) and outsized moves following last week’s mauling, not the result of any fundamental (or not so fundamental) news.

That could change tomorrow, and change for the worse, because as Barclays reminds us, tomorrow is when the European Court of Justice (ECJ) is scheduled to hear testimony on the ECB’s non-existent Outright Monetary Transactions program (OMT). Recall that the OMT is the imaginary (again: non-existent) byproduct of Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech: a byproduct that was supposed to exist purely in the imaginary realm (as it was merely a verbal bluff, one which was never meant to be actually activated), and never actually take practical shape (hence, why the OMT’s legal term sheet still does not exist, over two years later).

Sadly for Draghi, and the entire Deus Ex theater that managed to send European peripheral bonds from record wides yields to record low, tomorrow it will attain some much dreaded shape.

And while a ruling on the legal questions forwarded by Germany’s Constitutional Court is not expected this year, the hearing and questions posed by EU judges may give some early insights into their views and to what extent they might share the view of the German court that, unless several restrictions are imposed, the OMT should be considered illegal under European law. Continue reading »

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Oct 13

- Draghi The Dictator: “Working With The Germans Is Impossible” (ZeroHedge, Oct 12, 2014):

The war of words between Europe’s unelected monetary-policy dictator Mario Draghi and Germany’s “but it’s us that pays for all this” Bundesbank has been gaining momentum since Jens Weidmann penned his Op-Ed slamming Draghi’s OMT ‘whatever it takes’ as “too close to state financing” in 2012. A week ago, Weidmann stepped up the rhetoric by claiming ECB policy is “hostage to politics” and has lost its indepdendence – warning Draghi’s dictatorial policies were leading Europe down a “dangerous path.” But now, as pressure grows from the Spanish (record unemployment, record bad debt, record low yields), Italian (record unemployment, record debt-to-GDP, record low yields) and French (record unemployment, treaty-busting-deficits, record low yields) for Draghi to monetize more assets, he has struck back in Focus magazine, blasting Weidmann is “impossible” to work with because the Germans “say no to everything.” Dis-union… Continue reading »

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Oct 04

Clearly Europe Has A Crushing Deflation Problem… Oh Wait (ZeroHedge, Oct 4, 2014):

When Mario Draghi set off on his latest quest to slay Europe’s deflation monster, after an endless array of failed alphabet soup programs to inject money into stock markets mysteriously failed to fix Europe’s insolvent economy riddled by record unemployment and trillions in non-performing loans, he clearly was guided by this latest Eurobarometer survey of Public Opinion in the European Union, in which virtually everyone across the board admitted that the most important issue facing the common folk in Europe is plunging prices and crushing deflation.

rising prices

Oh wait… it says rising prices/inflation.

Well, that’s embarrassing. Please ignore everything we just said, because paradoxically to “fix” Europe, Mario Draghi is desperately trying to make Europe’s biggest problem even worse.  Or not: surely this is just a case when the 6 members of the ECB’s executive board “know better” than some 330 million Europeans. Continue reading »

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Sep 09

- JPMorgan Stunner: “The Current Episode Of Excess Liquidity Is The Most Extreme Ever” (ZeroHedge, Sep 8, 2014):

“The ECB’s quantitative expansion is hitting the financial system at a time when broad liquidity is also very high. The rise in excess liquidity, i.e. the residual in the model of Figure 3, is supportive of all assets outside cash, i.e. bonds, equities and real estate. The current episode of excess liquidity, which began in May 2012, appears to have been the most extreme ever in terms of its magnitude and the ECB actions have the potential to make it even more extreme, in our view…. These liquidity boosts are not without risks. We note that they risk creating asset bubbles which when they burst can destroy wealth leading to adverse economic outcomes. Asset yields are mean reverting over long periods of time and thus historically low levels of yields in bonds, equities and real estate are unlikely to be sustained forever.”
– JPMorgan

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Sep 05

Related info:

- Making $400,000 PER HOUR, The Best Paid Hedge Fund Manager In 2013 Was …


David-Tepper

- David Tepper Is Back, Sees “Beginning Of The End” Of Bond Bubble (ZeroHedge, Sep 4, 2014):

It has been a while since Tepper warned of “nervous time” and told his hedge fund pals “don’t be too freakin’ long.”

Since then the manipulated equity market bubble has gone straight up with every single dip bought massively by the algos, in the process surely eliminating any nervous thoughts Tepper may have had. So in a world starved for pundit philosophy, Bloomberg just reported that the bond market bubble is about to pop, at least according to the folicularly challenged billionaire. The reason, paradoxically enough, the ECB’s decision to monetize private assets and cut rates.

Continue reading »

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Jul 12

Wile_E_Coyote-Dont_Look_Down

CEO Of Europe’s Largest Insurer Pops The Utopia Bubble: “Nothing Is Solved And Everybody Knows It” (ZeroHedge, July 11, 2014):

It’s one thing for a tinfoil fringe blog to repeat, month after month, that nothing in Europe has been fixed, that Draghi’s disastrous policies are merely concentraing and stockpiling even more unresolved problems – for now ignored courtesy of the gentle sprinkle of ZIRP, or rather NIRP “fairy dust” – and that just like Portugal showed panic can grip the entire continent literally overnight because everyone knows this. It is something entirely different for the CEO of Europe’s largest insurer to make the same statement.

From Bloomberg:

When asking Allianz SE’s chief investment officer about the euro area’s sovereign debt woes, be prepared for an emphatic response.

The fundamental problems are not solved and everybody knows it,” Maximilian Zimmerer said at Bloomberg LP’s London office. The “euro crisis is not over,” he said.

While extraordinary stimulus from the European Central Bank has encouraged investors to pile into the region’s government bonds this year, that’s not a sufficient remedy for Zimmerer, who oversees 556 billion euros ($757 billion) at Europe’s largest insurer. Countries are still building up their debt piles, and that’s storing up trouble for the future, he said.

Continue reading »

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Jul 04

- By “Punishing” France, The US Just Accelerated The Demise Of The Dollar (ZeroHedge, July 4, 2014):

Not even we anticipated this particular “unintended consequence” as a result of the US multi-billion dollar fine on BNP (which France took very much to heart). Moments ago, in a lengthy interview given to French magazine Investir, none other than the governor of the French National Bank Christian Noyer and member of the ECB’s governing board, said this stunner at the very end, via Bloomberg:

  • NOYER: BNP CASE WILL ENCOURAGE ‘DIVERSIFICATION’ FROM DOLLAR

Here is the full google translated segment:

Q. Doesn’t the role of the dollar as an international currency create systemic risk?

Noyer: Beyond [the BNP] case, increased legal risks from the application of U.S. rules to all dollar transactions around the world will encourage a diversification from the dollar. BNP Paribas was the occasion for many observers to remember that there has been a number of sanctions and that there would certainly be others in the future. A movement to diversify the currencies used in international trade is inevitable. Trade between Europe and China does not need to use the dollar and may be read and fully paid in euros or renminbi. Walking towards a multipolar world is the natural monetary policy, since there are several major economic and monetary powerful ensembles. China has decided to develop the renminbi as a settlement currency. The Bank of France was behind the popular ECB-PBOC swap and we have just concluded a memorandum on the creation of a system of offshore renminbi clearing in Paris. We have very strong cooperation with the PBOC in this field. But these changes take time. We must not forget that it took decades after the United States became the world’s largest economy for the dollar to replace the British pound as the first international currency. But the phenomenon of U.S. rules expanding to all USD-denominated transactions around the world can have an accelerating effect.

In other words, the head of the French central bank, and ECB member, Christian Noyer, just issued a direct threat to the world’s reserve currency (for now), the US Dollar. Continue reading »

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