May 11

- The DJIA Stock Market Index Is A Hoax (The Burning Platform, March 29, 2014):

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index is the only stock market index that covers both the second and the third industrial revolution. Calculating share indexes such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and showing this index in a historical graph is a useful way to show which phase the industrial revolution is in. Changes in the DJIA shares basket, changes in the formula and stock splits during the take-off phase and acceleration phase of industrial revolutions are perfect transition-indicators. The similarities of these indicators during the last two revolutions are fascinating, but also a reason for concern. In fact the graph of the DJIA is a classic example of fictional truth, a hoax.

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Feb 12

- Is the Stock Market Repeating the 1929 Run Up to the Great Depression? (ZeroHedge, Feb 12, 2014):

Chart courtesy of Tom McClellan of the McClellan Market Report (via Mark Hulbert)

Hulbert notes that the chart “has been making the rounds on Wall Street.”

On the other hand, Martin Armstrong predicts that a worsening economy – and bank deposit confiscation – in Europe will cause people to flood into American stocks as a “safe haven” for a couple of years.

And the Fed has more or less admitted that propping up the stock market is a top priority.

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Jan 24

- Stocks Suffer Worst Week In 19 Months; Dow Gives Up All “Taper” Gains (ZeroHedge, Jan 24, 2014)

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Dec 07

And now back to reality:

- Are Another 1.3 Million Americans About To Drop Out Of Labor Force (And Send Unemployment Plunging)?

- The Real Unemployment Rate In The U.S. Is At Least 30%

- Fake Employment Numbers – And 5 More Massive Economic Lies The U.S. Government Is Telling You

- Recovery In The US: Widest Gap In Employment Rates Between Rich, Poor Since Records Began

- 80% Of US Adults Are Near Poverty, Rely On Welfare, Or Are Unemployed


- Unemployment rate falls to five-year low of 7% as 203,000 jobs added; Dow soars 199 points (NY Daily News, Dec 6, 2013):

Employers were hard at work hiring in November, signaling the labor market’s gradual healing continues.

U.S. payrolls expanded by 203,000, the Labor Department reported on Friday, a total well above the gain of 180,000 economists had forecast.

The jobless rate, meanwhile, dropped to a five-year low of 7.0%. It had been expected to tick down to 7.2% from 7.3% in October.

The report also showed about 8,000 more jobs were added to payrolls in September and October than previously thought.

Stocks shot sharply higher on the news, snapping a five-session losing streak. The Dow rocketed nearly 200 points, or 1.3% higher, to close at 16,020.

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Oct 03

- Forget The Debt Ceiling, The Dow Just Breached 15,000 (To The Downside)(ZeroHedge, Oct 3, 2013):

The Dow is down for the 9th day of the last 11 since the exuberant Un-Taper spike in stocks. Crucially though, it appears the government’s efforts to fear-monger equity markets into forcing action by the House Republicans is working. The all-important Dow 15,000 level has been breached to the downside and represents a much more important “economic” breach than the debt ceiling to any and every talking head it would seem…

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Jun 20

- FOMC Impact So Far: Nikkei -725 Points, Dow -570 Points (ZeroHedge, June 20, 2013):

But, but, but… the rally was all about earnings and fundamentals… not the Fed, right?

 

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Jun 01

- Dow Dumps 270 Points Intraday To Biggest 2-Week Drop In Six Months (ZeroHedge, June 1, 2013)

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Apr 10

- Dow Jones At New All Time Highs – Here’s Why (ZeroHedge, April 9, 2013):

Curious why the Dow Jones Industrial Average just hit new all time highs? Here’s a partial list of recent economic events:

  • Markit US PMI    Miss
  • ISM Manufacturing    Miss
  • ISM New York    Miss
  • Vehicle Sales    Miss
  • ADP Employment    Miss
  • ISM Services    Miss
  • Challenger Job Cuts     Miss
  • Initial Claims    Miss
  • Trade Balance    Beat
  • Non-Farm Payrolls    Miss
  • Hourly Earnings    Miss
  • NFIB Small Business    Miss
  • Wholesale Inventories    Miss

And that’s ignoring the absolute economic collapse in Europe, the Chinese slowdown, and the Japanese economic basketcase.

What is there to even say anymore: Stalingrad 4 Eva! Remember: central planning works.

and if pictures are better than words…

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Apr 02

- So Much For The Stability Of The Centrally-Banked “Fiat” Era (ZeroHedge, April 1, 2013):

According to some economist PhDs, the end of the gold standard era marked by the arrival of the Federal Reserve one century ago ushered in the era of stability, prosperity and virtually unlimited growth (just ignore the two world wars and millions of casualties immediately following). While that is an amusing way of describing a financial system that is now daily on the brink of a financial apocalypse courtesy of a few good central banks propping up a $1 quadrillion house of derivatives cards, whose collapse would mean an immediate “game over”, and where (rapidly evaporating) confidence in a failing status quo, must be preserved at all costs, the question of post-Fed induced stability is an interesting one, especially when measured in terms of intangible value (in this case the most basic of indicators – the Dow Jones), compared to thousands of years of a real tangible, store of wealth: gold. In the chart below, courtesy of Cambridge House, we ask readers: in which period was there a more stable relationship between tangible and intangible values, and a less exuberant irrationality vis-a-vis that which is purely based on confidence, if not so much reality.

A second logical follow up question is: where is this ratio of intangible to tangible value going next? The chart below attempts to provide some log-based perspective on precisely this.

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Mar 14

- 1936 Redux – It’s Really Never Different This Time (ZeroHedge, March 14, 2013):

While chart analogs provide optically pleasing (and often far too shockingly correct) indications of the human herd tendencies towards fear and greed, a glance through the headlines and reporting of prior periods can provide just as much of a concerning ‘analog’ as any chart. In this case, while a picture can paint a thousand words; a thousand words may also paint the biggest picture of all. It seems, socially and empirically, it is never different this time as these 1936 Wall Street Journal archives read only too wellfrom devaluations lifting stocks to inflationary side-effects of money flow and from short-covering, money-on-the-sidelines, Jobs, Europe, low-volume ramps, BTFD, and profit-taking, to brokers advising stocks for the long-run before a 40% decline.Things look eerily similar eh?

But when we look at the headlines in the Wall Street Journal from mid 1936 to mid 1937 as the market topped out (orange oval), dipped, was bought back, then collapsed 40% in 3 months, nothing ever changes…

Government Bailouts Repaid – Bullish Implications…

N.Y. Central Has Repaid All Government Loans
The Wall Street Journal, 978 words
Dec 1, 1936
WASHINGTON Numerous railroad developments here yesterday were climaxed by the announcement of RFC Chairman Jesse H. Jones that New York Central had repaid all of its government loans, totaling $16,858,950, most of which was not due until 1941. Continue reading »

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Mar 11

- Foodstamp Recipients Hit Record, Alongside Record Dow Jones And Record Debt: 20% Of Eligible Americans On EBT (ZeroHedge, March 11, 2013):

Record Dow Jones, record US debt ($16,701,846,937,879.74), and now, once more, record number of Americans on foodstamps. According to the USDA, an all time high of 47,791,966 Americans closed 2012 in possession of the highly desired Electronic Benefits Transfer (EBT) card, managed by who else but JPMorgan. And with a civilian non-institutional population of 244.4 million in December, this means that a record 19.56% of eligible Americans are on Foodstamps. In December an additional 109,924 Americans became reliant on foodstamps for their poverty-level needs, bringing the total to 47.8 million.

Number of US households on foodstamps: also a record of 23.1 million, with the average monthly benefit of $277.09. Continue reading »

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Mar 09

- Reality Check: The Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. Bananas (Sovereign Man, March 8, 2013):

Reporting from Santiago, Chile

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the key benchmarks of the US stock market, has soundly surpassed its all-time high. And most of the investing world is toasting their collective success and celebrating the recovery.

It’s a funny thing, really. Most investors only think in terms of ‘nominal’ numbers, i.e. Dow 14,000+ is 40% higher than Dow 10,000 (back in November 2009). But few think in terms of ‘real’ numbers… inflation-adjusted averages.

Everyone knows that inflation exists. We can all look back on prices from the past and realize instantly how much more expensive things have become. Conversely, though, most people don’t think about the stock market like this.

The reality is, though, that when you adjust for inflation, the Dow is well below its highs from over a decade ago. Continue reading »

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Mar 05

- The Last Time The Dow Was Here… (ZeroHedge, March 5, 2013):

“Mission Accomplished” - With CNBC now lost for countdown-able targets (though 20,000 is so close), we leave it to none other than Jim Cramer to sum up where we stand (oh and the following list of remarkable then-and-now macro, micro, and market variables):  “we all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money” – ZH translation: “just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else.”

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
  • GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
  • Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
  • Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
  • Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
  • Size of Fed’s Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
  • US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
  • US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
  • Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
  • US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
  • Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
  • S&P Rating: Then AAA; Now AA+
  • VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
  • 10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
  • EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
  • Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
  • NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares

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Jan 28

- JPM’s Tom Lee Announces His Dow Jones Industrial Average Price Target: 20,000 (ZeroHedge, Jan 28, 2013):

Back in July 2008, just before all hell broke loose and the S&P was trading in the upper 1,200s, everyone’s favorite permabull, JPM strategist famously reiterated his S&P 500 price target for the end of 2012: 1450. Two months later Lehman filed for bankruptcy, and 4 months later the S&P closed 2008 some 40% lower than said price target. Another two months later and anyone who had listened to Tom Lee lost 50% of their investment.

Today, as the Fed’s balance sheet crosses $3 trillion, and the global central banks have pumped a total of some $15 trillion into the markets, Tom Lee ws back on CNBC with what is his most permabullish prediction ever: he now expects the S&P to generate some 150 in earnings to which he applies a 17x multiple. His conclusion “If you put a 17 multiple on $150, the S&P really sort of peaks around 2,400 or 2,500.” In Dow terms, this means a Dow Jones Industrial Average of, drumroll, 20000. He does, caveat it, however: “that’s obviously 4 years away.” And if Tom Lee was off by 40% in 4 months, we can’t help but wonder what the hit rate on his 4 year prediction will be, and if, by using the same ruler extrapolation mechanism he applies to corporate earnings nand multiples one extrapolates the Fed’s balance sheet at some $7 trillion in 4 years, what a loaf of bread will cost just as the DJIA crosses 20,000. For future humor purposes, it may be useful to bookmark this post.

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Nov 07

- Dow Jones Industrial Average Celebrates “Four More Years” With Biggest Drop In A Year (ZeroHedge, Nov 7, 2012):

It seems like only last night everyone was celebrating more hope, if not much change. Now comes the hangover. The Dow Jones intraday drop is now 2.23% (and rising), greater than the biggest drop so far in 2012 record on June 1. The last time the market plunged as much: literally one year ago, or November 9, 2011. Sadly, it appears that one can’t have their Dow Jones Industrial Average and redistribute it too.

And if the surge in vol the last time we had moves of this magnitude is any indication, we can solmenly say that the world’s most overrated job for the next 2 months (and 4 years) will be the Chief Redemption Officer, at any hedge fund.

and the S&P futures are at a critical level…below Draghi’s Elbow… Continue reading »

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Oct 15

- Mike Krieger Topples The Last Domino (ZeroHedge, Oct 12, 2012):

Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.
- Mark Twain

I think we’re being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I’m liable to be put away as insane for expressing that.
- John Lennon (watch the video of Lennon actually saying it here)

We the people are the rightful masters of both Congress and the courts, not to overthrow the Constitution but to overthrow the men who pervert the Constitution.
- Abraham Lincoln

The Last Domino
With the U.S. Presidential election less than one month away, I think it’s a good time to take stock on what has occurred in 2012 so far and look forward to the period ahead, which I think will be one of increasing social and economic chaos in the United States. Continue reading »

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May 16

- Next Stop: Dow 100,000 (ZeroHedge, May 15, 2012):

We thought that Jeremy Siegel, Laszlo “the Ruler” Birinyi and Jim Altucher were optimistic with their stock market targets. Sadly, with their equal to or less than 20,000 Dow Jones predictions, the three merely come off as rank amateurs, especially when compared to the forecast of BNP’s head of fixed income Philippe Gijesels, who sees the stock market at 100,000 at some point over the next 25 years. However, unlike the previous trio who bases its forecasts on misguided expectations of economic growth, Gijesels may actually end up being right, because his estimate is predicated on one simple thing: hyperinflation, or specifically 12.2% inflation each year, which for a country like America is tantamount to the dreaded H-word. The other premise used by Gijesels: too much debt which has to be inflated. And actually, he is spot on. The only problem is that when the Dow hits 100,000 due to money printing, which is his underlying thesis, one will needed scientific notation to express the price of any hard asset (and most certainly gold), because if America falls in a two-decade long Weimar republic phase, the Dow may well be 100,000 or 100 googol – the truth is it won’t matter as the money this number translated to would be absolutely meaningless. Just ask the Weimar Germans, who may have had some tremendous monthly increases in their 401(k) statements, but all they really cared about is whether they had the latest and most fashionable wheelbarrow model.

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Mar 14

FYI.


- Biderman on Dow 6000 (ZeroHedge, Mar 14, 2012):

The storm clouds gathering behind Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs, are a perfect analogy for his fascinating treatise on the key to long term bull markets and why the Dow will be cut in half. Bringing together the critical fundamental driver of P/E multiples – income growth in his view – and the historically most critical secular shift of this fundamental driver – communications breakthroughs, Biderman remains calm (for once) in his explanation for why the current low levels of income growth mean that should a new reality of less Fed exuberance (or a belief in less Fed exuberance) occur, the Dow will go to 6000 as he sees little evidence of technological innovations of the scale needed to lead the next 25 years secular bull market.


YouTube

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Dec 10

- Surviving The Rollercoaster – UBS Charts The Global Secular And Cyclical Shifts (ZeroHedge, Dec. 9, 2011)

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Nov 01

See also:

- The European (Non-)Bailout Explained (Video) … And Why Europe ‘Is Screwed’: ‘Dumb Money’ Refuses To Play Along: China State Media Says It Won’t Rescue Europe

- Jim Rogers Says New Greece Deal Can’t Save Europe

- Nigel Farage On Freedom Watch: Eventually Events Will Be Too Big For Any Bailout (Video – Oct. 26, 2011)

- Bilderberg Merkel Warns Of War In Europe If Euro Fails – EU Summit Seals 1 Trillion Euro Deal – Banks Agree On 50% Write-Off Of Greek Debt


- Eurozone debt crisis: Markets dive on Greek referendum (BBC News,Nov. 1, 2011):

US and European markets have fallen following Monday’s announcement of a Greek referendum on the latest aid package to solve its debt crisis.

Eurozone leaders agreed a 50% debt write-off for Greece last week as well as strengthening Europe’s bailout fund.

But the Greek move has cast doubt on whether the deal can go ahead.

New York’s Dow Jones ended the day 2.5% lower, after a mid-afternoon rally on hope that Greek MPs may block the referendum proved short-lived.

One of Mr Papandreou’s MPs, Milena Apostolaki, resigned from the ruling Pasok parliamentary group on Tuesday, leaving the government with a two-seat majority in parliament.

Six other party members have called for Mr Papandreou to resign, according to the state news agency.

There are doubts whether the government will last long enough to hold the referendum, pencilled in for January.

A confidence vote is due to take place in the Greek parliament on Friday.

Banks down

Earlier in the day, London’s FTSE 100 had ended trading down 2.2%, while the Frankfurt Dax fell 5% and the Paris Cac 40 some 5.4%.

Shares in French banks saw the biggest falls, with Societe Generale down 16.2%, BNP Paribas 13.1% and Credit Agricole 12.5%.

Other European banks also fared badly for the second day, with Germany’s Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank and the UK’s Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland all 8% to 10% lower.

In the US, Bank of America fell 6.3%, while Morgan Stanley was down 8% at the close of trading.

Continue reading »

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Aug 21


YouTube Added: 20.08.2011

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Aug 08

- EPIC PLUNGE: -633.78, 6th Largest Drop In Dow Jones History (ZeroHedge, Aug 8, 2011):

And there you have it: following last Thursday’s massive 500 point drop which so many said was a buying opportunity, here comes a -633.78 plunge in the DJIA, which is the 6th largest absolute point drop in Dow Jones Industrial Average history, following 4 larger drops in 2008 following the Lehman bankruptcy, and one back in 2002. We just made history. If the DJIA can drop more than 800 points tomorrow, which it probably will if Bernanke does not announce QE3 in some form, 2011 will be #1!

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Aug 04

- Dow falls 512 in steepest decline since ’08 crisis (AP, Aug 4, 2011):

NEW YORK (AP) — Gripped by fear of another recession, the financial markets suffered their worst day Thursday since the crisis of 2008. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 500 points, its ninth-steepest decline ever.

The sell-off wiped out the Dow’s gains for 2011. It put the Dow and broader stock indexes into what investors call a correction — down 10 percent from the highs of this spring.

“We are continuing to be bombarded by worries about the global economy,” said Bill Stone, the chief investment strategist for PNC Financial.

The day was reminiscent of the wild swings that defined the markets during the crisis three years ago. Gold prices briefly hit a record high, oil fell an extraordinary $5 a barrel, and frightened investors were so desperate to get into some government bonds that they were willing accept almost no return on their money.

It was the most alarming day yet in the almost uninterrupted selling that has swept Wall Street for two weeks. Since July 21, the Dow has lost more than 1,300 points, or 10.5 percent of its value. It has closed lower nine of the 10 trading days since then.

For the day, the Dow closed down 512.76 points, at 11,383.68. It was the steepest point decline since Dec. 1, 2008.

Continue reading »

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Mar 09

King World News interviewed James Turk out of London.

James Turk:

“Eric I have really been focusing a lot on what central banks are doing and how their actions might be impacting my long-standing forecast for the price of gold. You probably know back in 2003 I stated in a Barron’s interview that the Dow/Gold ratio would be 1 to 1 again sometime between 2013 and 2015. My thinking had been that gold would be $8,000 and the Dow would be 8,000, but now my thinking has changed.”

“I think that my gold forecast was too conservative. Given the way central banks are printing money when they are buying government debt, I think the 1 to 1 ratio is going to be reached at a much higher price.

People don’t understand how much wealth destruction has yet to occur as this financial bust that we are in works to its inevitable conclusion. In effect, the Dow has to lose 90% vs gold. This wealth destruction is going to devastate a great many investors, in fact most of them will never recover from this event.

As I said earlier Eric, my thinking has changed as we have been going through this cycle. This time around is not going to be like the gold bull market of the 1970’s. The dollar is going to lose its status as the world’s reserve currency. This is fundamentally different than what occurred in the 1970’s.

…..

The dollar collapse will be like a thief in the night for most people.

…..

Full article: KingWorldNews

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Mar 07

Apres Nous, Le Deluge

Happy days are here again! Stock markets are strong, company profits are up, bankers are making record profits and bonuses, unemployment is declining, and inflation is non-existent. Obama and Bernanke are the dream team making the US into the Superpower it once was.

Yes, it is amazing the castles in the air that can be built with paper money and deceitful manipulation of all economic data.  And Madame Bernanke de Pompadour will do anything to keep King Louis XV Obama happy, including flooding markets with unlimited amounts of printed money. They both know that, in their holy alliance, they are committing a cardinal sin. But clinging to power is more important than the good of the country.  An economic and social disaster is imminent for the US and a major part of the world and Bernanke de Pompadour and Louis XV Obama are praying that it won’t happen during their reign: “Après nous le déluge”. (Warm thanks to my good friend the artist Leo Lein).

Moral and financial decadence

A deluge of an unprecedented magnitude is both inevitable and imminent. The consequences of the economic and political mismanagement will have a devastating impact on the world for a very long time. And the consequences will touch most corners of the world in so many different areas; economic, financial, social, political and geopolitical. The adjustment that the world will undergo in the next decade or longer, will be of such colossal magnitude that life will be very different for coming generations compared to the current social, financial and moral decadence. But history always gives us lessons and the one that is coming will be necessary and eventually good for the world. But the transition and adjustment will be extremely traumatic for most of us.

Continue reading »

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May 19


Added: 13. Mai 2010

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May 07

“I Have 80% Of My Assets In GOLD.”


Added: 7. Mai 2010

If Nostradamus were alive today, he’d have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente.
– New York Post

When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente.
– CNN Headline News

There’s not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he’s talking about.
- CNBC

Those who take their predictions seriously … consider the Trends Research Institute.
– The Wall Street Journal

A network of 25 experts whose range of specialties would rival many university faculties.
– The Economist

More from Gerald Celente:

- Gerald Celente: Obama’s Financial Reform Is Just A Show

- The No.1 Trend Forecaster Gerald Celente on ObamaCare, Dollar Devaluation And Gold

- Gerald Celente: This time they will close the Banks & Wall Street (03/27/10)

- Gerald Celente: ‘It’s the greatest bank robbery in world history and the banks are doing the robbing.’

- Gerald Celente: ‘The Crash is Coming in 2010.’

- The No.1 Trend Forecaster Gerald Celente: Financial Mafia Controlling US and Wall Street

- Survivor, America: ‘It’s Only Going to Get Worse,’ Gerald Celente Says

- The No.1 Trend Forecaster Gerald Celente: The Terror And The Crash of 2010

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Nov 21

WTF?!



LONDON (MarketWatch) — The IntercontinentalExchange is probing trades in U.S. dollar index futures that briefly showed a massive 9% jump on Friday morning.

The lead contract surged as high as 82.18, up from a 75.38 close on Thursday. Such a move was improbable given that in spot markets, the dollar’s moves against major currencies such as the euro were limited to about 1%. 

The ICE agreed, and according to an exchange official, all trades above 76.50 were being cancelled. The ICE was still investigating the cause of the incident, the official said.

Dollar index futures were still elevated after the incident, up a more modest 0.7% to 75.91.

The move briefly had an impact on other markets, as futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 99 points.

Continue reading »

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Nov 12

(Click on image to enlarge.)
dow-jones-priced-in-gold

November 11th, 2009

Source: Reuters

Related article:

- World’s Largest Gold Mining Company Barrick: World Gold Supply Runs Out, Global Gold Production in Terminal Decline

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Nov 01

Red alert:

Get out of the stock market. This is a trap. Take a close look at the P/E ratio. The ‘real’ next leg down in the stock market will be a bloodbath.

- Gerald Celente: ‘Their is no recovery; It’s a coverup. We are already in the Greatest Depression.’

- CIT Bankruptcy Filing Expected in Days; $2.3 Billion Taxpayer Money to Be Wiped Out; Goldman Sachs Receives $285 Million In Termination Fees:
“With $71 billion in assets, CIT would have the fifth-largest bankruptcy filing in U.S. history.”

(Every investor is fully responsible for his/her own actions, actually for his/her entire life. Blaming others is a sign of weakness. It is giving your power away to others and leaves oneself in the position of a pathetic, powerless victim.)


bear-market

By Bob Chapman

Insiders at corporations are selling with glee. Thirty times more sell orders than buy orders.

During September and October we still saw short covering. We also see that 73% of NYSE trading was of the black box variety, program trading. There are 16 firms front-running all market trades and the SEC refuses to do anything about it, so that Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan chase can further enrich themselves, illegally. The SEC calls it flash-trading not what it really is, stealing. And, yes, the SEC still refuses to stop naked shorting, which is also illegal – another trove of riches for the anointed insiders at Illuminati run brokerage firms. The remainder of the market strength comes from banks, brokerage firms and insurance companies who are leveraging funds received from the Treasury and the Fed, some $12.7 trillion. That is what this really is all about.

This is the first time ever that the S&P 500 has ever rallied 60% in six months. The Dow reached 10,000, when it should not have exceeded 8,500. That shows you the distortion and manipulation going on and points up the now blatant activities of the President’s “Working Group on Financial Markets,” which, of course, operates in secret. As a tribute to this phony rally we have lost 2.5 million jobs over its tenure, when two million are normally created. Are there no professionals out there that get it? They cannot all be that dumb, and they are not that dumb. They are engaging in a conspiracy of silence. They want to be thought well by their peers at the club. They do not want to be ostracized in the Wall Street click. We know we were there for 28 years, of course, always on the outside looking in, permanently known as goldie. If you want to see where the US stock market is eventually going take a look at Japan from 1992 to today. 70% losses and still unable to get out of its own way with an economy still in depression. Incidentally, if the US market copies Japan, which we believe it will, we could easily fall to 3,800 to 4,200 on the Dow and we’ll be very lucky if it holds there. Others whose opinion we respect are looking for 2,800. Wall Street is pricing into the market earnings not only for 2010 but 2011 as well, which is very dangerous in such an environment. We are still in the worst credit crisis since the 1930s.

Trailing P/E on operating earnings is 27 times. When the Dow was 14,168 in 2007, it was 18.8 times. Reported trailing earnings are 180 times, whereas in 10/07, it was 23.4 times. In 10/87, it was 20.3 times. That should give you something to think about if you are in the market. Normally P/E’s should be 14.5 times.
Instead of chasing an overpriced goose you should be participating in the bull markets in gold, silver and commodities. That is where safety, preservation of capital and possible large gains are to be found, both short and long term. Why fiddle with an overextended bear market rally when you can gain in relative safety. Get rid of those bonds, stocks, CDs, cash value life insurance policies and annuities, which are really uninsured and in the stock market waiting to again fall 40% to 70% in value. The crisis is not over; it is still in the beginning.

The Fed and Wall Street tell us the recession is over and soon policy actions will continue to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth. They see no inflation ahead, only the 1.2% presently. Needless to say, they are well aware that real inflation is 6.11%.

Continue reading »

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