Bloomberg’s Handy Guide To Why Falling Prices Are Horrible For You

Bloomberg’s Handy Guide To Why Falling Prices Are Horrible For You (ZeroHedge, Jan 22, 2015):

With almost perfect comedic timing, Bloomberg unleashed the mainstream media’s Draghi-confirming raison d’etre for QE… explainining why – shock horror – deflation is bad for you. No matter that the QE efforts of The Fed (and BoJ) entirely (totally and utterly) failed to spark any increase in inflation expectations, we must try try try again. However, despite the exuberant disgruntlement with deflation that Bloomberg offers, Portuguese economy minister Guindos had something ‘odd’ to say this morning: “European deflation is positive.” We are sure he will issue some clarifying statement soon enough walking back such a dangerous and anti-authority comment.

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Kudos To Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann For Uttering Three Truths In One Speech

Kudos To Herr Weidmann For Uttering Three Truths In One Speech (David Stockman’s Contra Corner, Oct 17, 2014):

Once in a blue moon officials commit truth in public, but the intrepid leader of Germany’s central bank has delivered a speech which let’s loose of three of them in a single go. Speaking at a conference in Riga, Latvia, Jens Weidmann put the kibosh on QE, low-flation and central bank interference in pricing of risky assets.

These days the Keynesian chorus in favor of policy activism is so boisterous that a succinct statement to the contrary rarely gets through – especially at Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street yarn factory. But here’s what penetrated even Brian Blackstone’s filters:

“The biggest bottleneck for growth in the euro area is not monetary policy, nor is it the lack of fiscal stimulus: it is the structural barriers that impede competition, innovation and productivity,” he said.

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Clearly Europe Has A Crushing Deflation Problem… Oh Wait … It Says Rising Prices/Inflation

–  Clearly Europe Has A Crushing Deflation Problem… Oh Wait (ZeroHedge, Oct 4, 2014):

When Mario Draghi set off on his latest quest to slay Europe’s deflation monster, after an endless array of failed alphabet soup programs to inject money into stock markets mysteriously failed to fix Europe’s insolvent economy riddled by record unemployment and trillions in non-performing loans, he clearly was guided by this latest Eurobarometer survey of Public Opinion in the European Union, in which virtually everyone across the board admitted that the most important issue facing the common folk in Europe is plunging prices and crushing deflation.

rising prices

Oh wait… it says rising prices/inflation.

Well, that’s embarrassing. Please ignore everything we just said, because paradoxically to “fix” Europe, Mario Draghi is desperately trying to make Europe’s biggest problem even worse.  Or not: surely this is just a case when the 6 members of the ECB’s executive board “know better” than some 330 million Europeans.

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‘Everything We Are Told About Deflation Is A Lie’

“Everything we are told about deflation is a lie” (The Cobden Center, April 9, 2014):

“The European Central Bank has given its strongest signal yet that it is prepared to embrace quantitative easing to prevent the euro zone from sliding into deflation or even a prolonged period of low inflation.”
– ‘Draghi strengthens QE signal’, Financial Times, April 4, 2014.

Yes, heaven protect Europe’s embattled citizens and savers from a prolonged period of low inflation. How could they possibly survive it ?

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Peter Schiff: Meet ‘LOWFLATION’: Deflation’s Scary Pal

dollar-euro

Meet ‘lowflation’: Deflation’s scary pal (RT, April 7, 2014):

Peter Schiff
By Peter Schiff

In recent years a good part of the monetary debate has become a simple war of words, with much of the conflict focused on the definition for the word “inflation.”

Whereas economists up until the 1960’s or 1970’s mostly defined inflation as an expansion of the money supply, the vast majority now see it as simply rising prices. Since then the “experts” have gone further and devised variations on the word “inflation” (such as “deflation,” “disinflation,” and “stagflation”). And while past central banking policy usually focused on “inflation fighting,” now bankers talk about “inflation ceilings” and more recently “inflation targets”. The latest front in this campaign came this week when Bloomberg News unveiled a brand new word: “lowflation” which it defines as a situation where prices are rising, but not fast enough to offer the economic benefits that are apparently delivered by higher inflation. Although the article was printed on April Fool’s Day, sadly I do not believe it was meant as a joke.

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Peter Schiff Destroys The ‘Deflation Is An Ogre’ Myth

Peter Schiff Destroys The “Deflation Is An Ogre” Myth (ZeroHedge, Jan 22, 2014):

Submitted by Peter Schiff via Euro Pacific Capital,

Dedicated readers of The Wall Street Journal have recently been offered many dire warnings about a clear and present danger that is stalking the global economy. They are not referring to a possible looming stock or real estate bubble (which you can find more on in my latest newsletter). Nor are they talking about other usual suspects such as global warming, peak oil, the Arab Spring, sovereign defaults, the breakup of the euro, Miley Cyrus, a nuclear Iran, or Obamacare. Instead they are warning about the horror that could result from falling prices, otherwise known as deflation. Get the kids into the basement Mom… they just marked down Cheerios!

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Nobel Winner Dares To Go There: ‘No Reason To Fear Deflation … Greece May Benefit From Gold Standard’

Nobel Winner Dares To Go There: “No Reason To Fear Deflation… Greece May Benefit From Gold Standard” (ZeroHedge, Nov 16, 2013):

“Historically, there is no reason to fear deflation,” Nobel Laureate Thomas Sargent explains to Germany’s Wiwo.de, “we all benefit from lower prices.” Crucially, he continues, “countries with declining prices, such as Greece, must improve the competitiveness they have lost in recent years,” requiring falling wages and rising productivity (and falling unit labor costs) which will lead to companies cutting prices, “this is not a dangerous deflation, but part of the necessary correction so that these countries are internationally competitive again.” That central banks pursue an inflation rate of around 2%, Sargent blasts, is because they consider it their job to “make bad debt good debt,” adding that inflation is “a major redistribution machine – reducing the real debt burden for the benefit of creditors and devaluing the assets of the creditors.” A return to a gold standard,he concludes, to prevent governments and central banks from limitless money-printing “would not be foolish.”

Thomas Sargent (via Wiwo.de) dares to go there (and is likely about to be stripped of his Nobel)…

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Will It Be Inflation Or Deflation? The Answer May Surprise You

Will It Be Inflation Or Deflation? The Answer May Surprise You (Economic Collapse, May 22, 2013):

Is the coming financial collapse going to be inflationary or deflationary?  Are we headed for rampant inflation or crippling deflation?  This is a subject that is hotly debated by economists all over the country.  Some insist that the wild money printing that the Federal Reserve is doing combined with out of control government spending will eventually result in hyperinflation.  Others point to all of the deflationary factors in our economy and argue that we will experience tremendous deflation when the bubble economy that we are currently living in bursts.  So what is the truth?  Well, for the reasons listed below, I believe that we will see both.  The next major financial panic will cause a substantial deflationary wave first, and after that we will see unprecedented inflation as the central bankers and our politicians respond to the financial crisis.  This will happen so quickly that many will get “financial whiplash” as they try to figure out what to do with their money.  We are moving toward a time of extreme financial instability, and different strategies will be called for at different times.So why will we see deflation first?  The following are some of the major deflationary forces that are affecting our economy right now…

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Ron Paul On Bitcoin: ‘If I Can’t Put It In My Pocket, I Have Reservations’

Ron Paul On Bitcoin: “If I Can’t Put It In My Pocket, I Have Reservations” (ZeroHedge, April 23, 2013):

“You will not see economic growth until you liquidate the debt and liquidate the malinvestment out there,” is the hard truth that former Congressman Ron Paul lays on Bloomberg TV in this wide-ranging interview. Paul is concerned at “the erraticness of the dollar… and its devaluation,” explaining that, “people think the gold price up and down is a reflection of something wrong with gold; no, I say it is something wrong with the dollar.” The topic gravitates to inflation, which Paul explains is far from missing as, “Bond prices go up. Stocks are going up. Housing prices are starting to go back up again. Education costs are going up,” adding that, “CPI is not reliable.” Paul is buying gold, believes “we are in as much trouble as Greece,” and while fascinated by the free market nature of Bitcoin, he notes that while he doesn’t fully understand it, “if I can’t put it in my pocket, I have some reservations about that.”

Paul on whether he’s concerned about the drop in gold:

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Inflationary Deflation: Creating A New Bubble In Money

Inflationary Deflation: Creating A New Bubble In Money (ZeroHedge, Dec 10, 2012):

Excessive monetary stimulus and low interest rates create financial bubbles.Seymour Pierce’s Thunder Road report notes that:

Central banks are creating the ultimate bubble in money itself, as they fight the downward leg in this Long Wave cycle. This is the biggest debt bubble in history. Each time deflationary forces re-assert themselves, offsetting inflationary forces (monetary stimulus in some form) have to be correspondingly more aggressive to keep systemic failure at bay. The avoidance of a typical deflationary resolution of this Long Wave is incubating a coming wave of inflation. This will not be the conventional “demand pull” inflation understood by most economists. The end game is an inflationary/currency crisis, dislocation across credit and derivative markets, and the transition to a new monetary system , with a new reserve currency replacing the dollar. This makes gold and silver the “go-to” assets for capital preservation.

Strategically, we are far more bullish on equities versus bonds. Tactically, equities face a volatile period – buffeted by alternating cycles of deflationary and re-flationary forces until they overcome bonds as the inflationary endgame unfolds. In that scenario, equity investments should (over time) be aligned with the growing share of real disposable income directed towards essential expenditures, including energy, food/agriculture, personal & household care, mobile telephony and defense (for governments).

The “Inflationary Deflation” paradox refers to the rise in price of almost everything in conventional money and simultaneous fall in terms of gold.

Full report below…

Thunder Road – December

The Monetary Endgame Score To Date: Hyperinflations: 56; Hyperdeflations: 0

The Monetary Endgame Score To Date: Hyperinflations: 56; Hyperdeflations: 0 (ZeroHedge, Sep 1, 2012):

We won’t waste our readers’ time with the details of all the 56 documented instances of hyperinflation in the modern, and not so modern, world. They can do so on their own by reading the attached CATO working paper by Hanke and Krus titled simply enough “World Hyperinflations.” Those who do read it will discover the details of how it happened to be that in post World War 2 Hungary the equivalent daily inflation rate of 207%, the highest ever recorded, led to a price doubling every 15 hours, certainly one upping such well-known instance of CTRL-P abandon as Zimbabwe (24.7 hours) and Weimar Germany (a tortoise-like 3.70 days). This and much more. What we will point is that at no time in recorded history did a monetary regime end in “hyperdeflation.” In fact there is not one hyperdeflationary episode of note. Although, we are quite certain, that virtually all of the 56 and counting hyperinflations in the world, were at one point borderline hyperdeflationary. All it took was central planner stupidity to get the table below, and a paper with the abovementioned title instead of “World Hyperdeflations.”Full table:

The full working paper by Steve Hanke and Nicholas Krus below (pdf)

Hyperinflation s

Once The Banksters Lose CONTROL, We’ll Live In A Different World (Video)

FYI.

Part 1: These Banksters Are Involved In Every Imaginable CRIME (Video)



YouTube Added: 21.07.2012

Description:

Here’s Part 2 of my dramatic interview with precious metals pundits Andy Hoffman and Bill Holter. We discuss the clear evidence of the international banking crimes, debate inflation VS deflation and conclude with this FACT: The collapse is happening, and once the Banksters lose what little control they have left, the world in which we live will change forever.

Gold: 1980 vs Today (Video)

Gold: 1980 vs Today (ZeroHedge, Feb. 17, 2012):

When gold was undergoing its latest (and certainly not greatest) near-parabolic move last year, there were those pundits consistently calling for comparisons to 1980, and the subsequent gold crash. Yet even a simplistic analysis indicates that while in the 1980s gold was a hedge to runaway inflation, in the current deflationary regime, it is a hedge to central planner stupidity that will result as a response to runaway deflation. In other words, it is a hedge to what happens when the trillions in central bank reserves (at last check approaching 30% of world GDP). There is much more, and we have explained the nuances extensively previously, but for those who are only now contemplating the topic of gold for the first time, the following brief summary from futuremoneytrends.com captures the salient points. Far more importantly, it also focuses on a topic that so far has not seen much media focus: the quiet and pervasive expansion in bilateral currency agreements which are nothing short of a precursor to dropping the dollar entirely once enough backup linkages are in place: a situation which will likely crescendo soon courtesy of upcoming developments in Iran, discussed here previously.


YouTube Added: 17.02.2012

Recessionspotting: ‘You Are Here’ (Translation: we are on the verge of the biggest deflationary market collapse since the 1930s, which will, inevitably, be followed by the most powerful (read fiat dilutive) central bank response in history.)

Recessionspotting: “You Are Here” (ZeroHedge, Aug 13, 2011):

Now that even the likes of Joe LaSagna are starting to throw out the R-word about as casually as they did a 4% 2011 GDP target as recently as 2 months ago, it is becoming increasingly clear that the market is pricing in the fact that post a few more historical BEA revisions, the prior two real GDP reads will end up having been, shockingly enough, negative, i.e., your garden variety recession. So where does that put us on a market performance continuum, for those wishing to extrapolate how much further stocks and, yes, bonds (because credit is and always has been a far better indicator of objective market reality) have to drop before we hit the proverbial floor. Well, according to Morgan Stanley, quite a bit lower: “Despite the recent decline in risk assets, we do not believe that recession is in the price. Exhibits 3 and 4 show the typical declines in developed market risk assets in recession. Compared to corrections in past recessions, S&P prices and corporate credit spreads would have more to go, though spreads are starting from a higher level than typically precedes recessions.” What is startling is that should central planners lose all control (and with central bank intervention upon intervention, one can argue that should all artificial props be removed, the market really ought to plunge in a Great Depression-style tailspin), the drop from the April 29 peak to the bottom will be roughly 4 times greater… which means the S&P would hit the proverbial “S&P 400” which is the long-term target of the likes of some more popular skeptics such as Albert Edwards and Russell Napier. As for credit: watch out below.

Equities:

and Credit:

And completing the pain, again from Morgan Stanley:

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Quantitative Easing Explained

Must-see!

“When a country embarks on deficit financing (Obamanomics) and inflationism (QE) you wipe out the middle class and wealth is transferred from the middle class and the poor to the rich.”
– Ron Paul



Added: 11. November 2010



Added: 19. November 2010

US: Treasury Draws NEGATIVE YIELD For The First Time


A statue of Albert Gallatin, a long-serving U.S. secretary of the Treasury, stands in front of he U.S. Treasury Building in Washington, D.C. Photographer: David Rogowski/Bloomberg

The Treasury sold $10 billion of five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities at a negative yield for the first time at a U.S. debt auction as investors bet the Federal Reserve will be successful in halting deflation.

The securities drew a yield of negative 0.55 percent, the same as the average forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 7 of the Federal Reserve’s 18 primary dealers. The sale was a reopening of an $11 billion offering in April. Conventional Treasuries rallied amid speculation about the amount of debt the Fed may purchase to spur the economy in a strategy called quantitative easing.

“It signals people’s expectation of the Fed being able to create some inflation with the QE program,” said Alex Li, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Deutsche Bank AG, one of 18 primary dealers required to bid at Treasury auctions. “With nominal rates so low, in order have high TIPS breakevens you’ve got to have negative real yields on the five-year.”

Holders of TIPS receive an adjustment to the principal value of their securities equal to the change in the consumer price index, in addition to a fixed rate of interest that is smaller than the interest paid to a holder of conventional debt. The difference between is known as the breakeven rate.

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Japan’s Debt: $80.000 Per Person

See also:

Japan bribes small nations with cash and prostitutes to gain support for the mass slaughter of whales

Japan Mulls Monetisation of Public Debt And Yen Devaluation By 30 Percent

Analysts: Risk of Japan Going Bankrupt is Real


My $80,000 Says Deflation Will Only Get Worse

mt-fuji_risk-of-japan-going-bankrupt-is-real

Naoto Kan may get the state dinners and the motorcades, but he no longer runs Japan. Economist Masaaki Shirakawa does.

If anything is clear since the drubbing that Prime Minister Kan’s Democratic Party of Japan took earlier this week, it’s that politicians are passing the buck to the central bank. Expect Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa to feel more pressure to boost economic growth than ever before.

You may think you have seen this movie before. You haven’t. Increased reliance on the BOJ will end badly for the world economy.

It’s now entirely possible that, come September, Japan will have its sixth leader in four years. Speculation is growing that a power struggle could nudge Kan out of a job he assumed just five weeks ago. That would be a blow to investors. Kan is the only leader in 20 years who has talked seriously about ending Japan’s debt-fueled-growth insanity.

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