Jan 23

Bloomberg’s Handy Guide To Why Falling Prices Are Horrible For You (ZeroHedge, Jan 22, 2015):

With almost perfect comedic timing, Bloomberg unleashed the mainstream media’s Draghi-confirming raison d’etre for QE… explainining why – shock horror – deflation is bad for you. No matter that the QE efforts of The Fed (and BoJ) entirely (totally and utterly) failed to spark any increase in inflation expectations, we must try try try again. However, despite the exuberant disgruntlement with deflation that Bloomberg offers, Portuguese economy minister Guindos had something ‘odd’ to say this morning: “European deflation is positive.” We are sure he will issue some clarifying statement soon enough walking back such a dangerous and anti-authority comment. Continue reading »

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Oct 19

Kudos To Herr Weidmann For Uttering Three Truths In One Speech (David Stockman’s Contra Corner, Oct 17, 2014):

Once in a blue moon officials commit truth in public, but the intrepid leader of Germany’s central bank has delivered a speech which let’s loose of three of them in a single go. Speaking at a conference in Riga, Latvia, Jens Weidmann put the kibosh on QE, low-flation and central bank interference in pricing of risky assets.

These days the Keynesian chorus in favor of policy activism is so boisterous that a succinct statement to the contrary rarely gets through – especially at Rupert Murdoch’s Wall Street yarn factory. But here’s what penetrated even Brian Blackstone’s filters:

“The biggest bottleneck for growth in the euro area is not monetary policy, nor is it the lack of fiscal stimulus: it is the structural barriers that impede competition, innovation and productivity,” he said.

Continue reading »

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Oct 04

–  Clearly Europe Has A Crushing Deflation Problem… Oh Wait (ZeroHedge, Oct 4, 2014):

When Mario Draghi set off on his latest quest to slay Europe’s deflation monster, after an endless array of failed alphabet soup programs to inject money into stock markets mysteriously failed to fix Europe’s insolvent economy riddled by record unemployment and trillions in non-performing loans, he clearly was guided by this latest Eurobarometer survey of Public Opinion in the European Union, in which virtually everyone across the board admitted that the most important issue facing the common folk in Europe is plunging prices and crushing deflation.

rising prices

Oh wait… it says rising prices/inflation.

Well, that’s embarrassing. Please ignore everything we just said, because paradoxically to “fix” Europe, Mario Draghi is desperately trying to make Europe’s biggest problem even worse.  Or not: surely this is just a case when the 6 members of the ECB’s executive board “know better” than some 330 million Europeans. Continue reading »

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Sep 23


Jun 10, 2014

See also:


Sep 24, 2013

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Apr 19

“Everything we are told about deflation is a lie” (The Cobden Center, April 9, 2014):

“The European Central Bank has given its strongest signal yet that it is prepared to embrace quantitative easing to prevent the euro zone from sliding into deflation or even a prolonged period of low inflation.”
– ‘Draghi strengthens QE signal’, Financial Times, April 4, 2014.

Yes, heaven protect Europe’s embattled citizens and savers from a prolonged period of low inflation. How could they possibly survive it ? Continue reading »

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Apr 08

dollar-euro

Meet ‘lowflation’: Deflation’s scary pal (RT, April 7, 2014):

Peter Schiff
By Peter Schiff

In recent years a good part of the monetary debate has become a simple war of words, with much of the conflict focused on the definition for the word “inflation.”

Whereas economists up until the 1960’s or 1970’s mostly defined inflation as an expansion of the money supply, the vast majority now see it as simply rising prices. Since then the “experts” have gone further and devised variations on the word “inflation” (such as “deflation,” “disinflation,” and “stagflation”). And while past central banking policy usually focused on “inflation fighting,” now bankers talk about “inflation ceilings” and more recently “inflation targets”. The latest front in this campaign came this week when Bloomberg News unveiled a brand new word: “lowflation” which it defines as a situation where prices are rising, but not fast enough to offer the economic benefits that are apparently delivered by higher inflation. Although the article was printed on April Fool’s Day, sadly I do not believe it was meant as a joke.

Continue reading »

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Jan 23

Peter Schiff Destroys The “Deflation Is An Ogre” Myth (ZeroHedge, Jan 22, 2014):

Submitted by Peter Schiff via Euro Pacific Capital,

Dedicated readers of The Wall Street Journal have recently been offered many dire warnings about a clear and present danger that is stalking the global economy. They are not referring to a possible looming stock or real estate bubble (which you can find more on in my latest newsletter). Nor are they talking about other usual suspects such as global warming, peak oil, the Arab Spring, sovereign defaults, the breakup of the euro, Miley Cyrus, a nuclear Iran, or Obamacare. Instead they are warning about the horror that could result from falling prices, otherwise known as deflation. Get the kids into the basement Mom… they just marked down Cheerios! Continue reading »

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Nov 17

Nobel Winner Dares To Go There: “No Reason To Fear Deflation… Greece May Benefit From Gold Standard” (ZeroHedge, Nov 16, 2013):

“Historically, there is no reason to fear deflation,” Nobel Laureate Thomas Sargent explains to Germany’s Wiwo.de, “we all benefit from lower prices.” Crucially, he continues, “countries with declining prices, such as Greece, must improve the competitiveness they have lost in recent years,” requiring falling wages and rising productivity (and falling unit labor costs) which will lead to companies cutting prices, “this is not a dangerous deflation, but part of the necessary correction so that these countries are internationally competitive again.” That central banks pursue an inflation rate of around 2%, Sargent blasts, is because they consider it their job to “make bad debt good debt,” adding that inflation is “a major redistribution machine – reducing the real debt burden for the benefit of creditors and devaluing the assets of the creditors.” A return to a gold standard,he concludes, to prevent governments and central banks from limitless money-printing “would not be foolish.”

Thomas Sargent (via Wiwo.de) dares to go there (and is likely about to be stripped of his Nobel)… Continue reading »

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May 23

Will It Be Inflation Or Deflation? The Answer May Surprise You (Economic Collapse, May 22, 2013):

Is the coming financial collapse going to be inflationary or deflationary?  Are we headed for rampant inflation or crippling deflation?  This is a subject that is hotly debated by economists all over the country.  Some insist that the wild money printing that the Federal Reserve is doing combined with out of control government spending will eventually result in hyperinflation.  Others point to all of the deflationary factors in our economy and argue that we will experience tremendous deflation when the bubble economy that we are currently living in bursts.  So what is the truth?  Well, for the reasons listed below, I believe that we will see both.  The next major financial panic will cause a substantial deflationary wave first, and after that we will see unprecedented inflation as the central bankers and our politicians respond to the financial crisis.  This will happen so quickly that many will get “financial whiplash” as they try to figure out what to do with their money.  We are moving toward a time of extreme financial instability, and different strategies will be called for at different times.So why will we see deflation first?  The following are some of the major deflationary forces that are affecting our economy right now… Continue reading »

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Apr 24

Ron Paul On Bitcoin: “If I Can’t Put It In My Pocket, I Have Reservations” (ZeroHedge, April 23, 2013):

“You will not see economic growth until you liquidate the debt and liquidate the malinvestment out there,” is the hard truth that former Congressman Ron Paul lays on Bloomberg TV in this wide-ranging interview. Paul is concerned at “the erraticness of the dollar… and its devaluation,” explaining that, “people think the gold price up and down is a reflection of something wrong with gold; no, I say it is something wrong with the dollar.” The topic gravitates to inflation, which Paul explains is far from missing as, “Bond prices go up. Stocks are going up. Housing prices are starting to go back up again. Education costs are going up,” adding that, “CPI is not reliable.” Paul is buying gold, believes “we are in as much trouble as Greece,” and while fascinated by the free market nature of Bitcoin, he notes that while he doesn’t fully understand it, “if I can’t put it in my pocket, I have some reservations about that.”

Paul on whether he’s concerned about the drop in gold: Continue reading »

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Apr 17


Added: 31.03.2013

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Dec 10

Inflationary Deflation: Creating A New Bubble In Money (ZeroHedge, Dec 10, 2012):

Excessive monetary stimulus and low interest rates create financial bubbles.Seymour Pierce’s Thunder Road report notes that:

Central banks are creating the ultimate bubble in money itself, as they fight the downward leg in this Long Wave cycle. This is the biggest debt bubble in history. Each time deflationary forces re-assert themselves, offsetting inflationary forces (monetary stimulus in some form) have to be correspondingly more aggressive to keep systemic failure at bay. The avoidance of a typical deflationary resolution of this Long Wave is incubating a coming wave of inflation. This will not be the conventional “demand pull” inflation understood by most economists. The end game is an inflationary/currency crisis, dislocation across credit and derivative markets, and the transition to a new monetary system , with a new reserve currency replacing the dollar. This makes gold and silver the “go-to” assets for capital preservation.

Strategically, we are far more bullish on equities versus bonds. Tactically, equities face a volatile period – buffeted by alternating cycles of deflationary and re-flationary forces until they overcome bonds as the inflationary endgame unfolds. In that scenario, equity investments should (over time) be aligned with the growing share of real disposable income directed towards essential expenditures, including energy, food/agriculture, personal & household care, mobile telephony and defense (for governments).

The “Inflationary Deflation” paradox refers to the rise in price of almost everything in conventional money and simultaneous fall in terms of gold.

Full report below…

Thunder Road – December

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Sep 01

The Monetary Endgame Score To Date: Hyperinflations: 56; Hyperdeflations: 0 (ZeroHedge, Sep 1, 2012):

We won’t waste our readers’ time with the details of all the 56 documented instances of hyperinflation in the modern, and not so modern, world. They can do so on their own by reading the attached CATO working paper by Hanke and Krus titled simply enough “World Hyperinflations.” Those who do read it will discover the details of how it happened to be that in post World War 2 Hungary the equivalent daily inflation rate of 207%, the highest ever recorded, led to a price doubling every 15 hours, certainly one upping such well-known instance of CTRL-P abandon as Zimbabwe (24.7 hours) and Weimar Germany (a tortoise-like 3.70 days). This and much more. What we will point is that at no time in recorded history did a monetary regime end in “hyperdeflation.” In fact there is not one hyperdeflationary episode of note. Although, we are quite certain, that virtually all of the 56 and counting hyperinflations in the world, were at one point borderline hyperdeflationary. All it took was central planner stupidity to get the table below, and a paper with the abovementioned title instead of “World Hyperdeflations.”Full table:

The full working paper by Steve Hanke and Nicholas Krus below (pdf)

Hyperinflation s

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Jul 21

FYI.

Part 1: These Banksters Are Involved In Every Imaginable CRIME (Video)



YouTube Added: 21.07.2012

Description:

Here’s Part 2 of my dramatic interview with precious metals pundits Andy Hoffman and Bill Holter. We discuss the clear evidence of the international banking crimes, debate inflation VS deflation and conclude with this FACT: The collapse is happening, and once the Banksters lose what little control they have left, the world in which we live will change forever.

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Feb 18

Gold: 1980 vs Today (ZeroHedge, Feb. 17, 2012):

When gold was undergoing its latest (and certainly not greatest) near-parabolic move last year, there were those pundits consistently calling for comparisons to 1980, and the subsequent gold crash. Yet even a simplistic analysis indicates that while in the 1980s gold was a hedge to runaway inflation, in the current deflationary regime, it is a hedge to central planner stupidity that will result as a response to runaway deflation. In other words, it is a hedge to what happens when the trillions in central bank reserves (at last check approaching 30% of world GDP). There is much more, and we have explained the nuances extensively previously, but for those who are only now contemplating the topic of gold for the first time, the following brief summary from futuremoneytrends.com captures the salient points. Far more importantly, it also focuses on a topic that so far has not seen much media focus: the quiet and pervasive expansion in bilateral currency agreements which are nothing short of a precursor to dropping the dollar entirely once enough backup linkages are in place: a situation which will likely crescendo soon courtesy of upcoming developments in Iran, discussed here previously.


YouTube Added: 17.02.2012

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Feb 09

Gold Increased In Value In Both Extreme Inflationary And Deflationary Scenarios – Credit Suisse & LBS Research (ZeroHedge, Feb. 8, 2012)

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Aug 13

Recessionspotting: “You Are Here” (ZeroHedge, Aug 13, 2011):

Now that even the likes of Joe LaSagna are starting to throw out the R-word about as casually as they did a 4% 2011 GDP target as recently as 2 months ago, it is becoming increasingly clear that the market is pricing in the fact that post a few more historical BEA revisions, the prior two real GDP reads will end up having been, shockingly enough, negative, i.e., your garden variety recession. So where does that put us on a market performance continuum, for those wishing to extrapolate how much further stocks and, yes, bonds (because credit is and always has been a far better indicator of objective market reality) have to drop before we hit the proverbial floor. Well, according to Morgan Stanley, quite a bit lower: “Despite the recent decline in risk assets, we do not believe that recession is in the price. Exhibits 3 and 4 show the typical declines in developed market risk assets in recession. Compared to corrections in past recessions, S&P prices and corporate credit spreads would have more to go, though spreads are starting from a higher level than typically precedes recessions.” What is startling is that should central planners lose all control (and with central bank intervention upon intervention, one can argue that should all artificial props be removed, the market really ought to plunge in a Great Depression-style tailspin), the drop from the April 29 peak to the bottom will be roughly 4 times greater… which means the S&P would hit the proverbial “S&P 400” which is the long-term target of the likes of some more popular skeptics such as Albert Edwards and Russell Napier. As for credit: watch out below.

Equities:

and Credit:

And completing the pain, again from Morgan Stanley:

Continue reading »

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Dec 13

Must-see!

“When a country embarks on deficit financing (Obamanomics) and inflationism (QE) you wipe out the middle class and wealth is transferred from the middle class and the poor to the rich.”
– Ron Paul



Added: 11. November 2010



Added: 19. November 2010

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Oct 25


A statue of Albert Gallatin, a long-serving U.S. secretary of the Treasury, stands in front of he U.S. Treasury Building in Washington, D.C. Photographer: David Rogowski/Bloomberg

The Treasury sold $10 billion of five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities at a negative yield for the first time at a U.S. debt auction as investors bet the Federal Reserve will be successful in halting deflation.

The securities drew a yield of negative 0.55 percent, the same as the average forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 7 of the Federal Reserve’s 18 primary dealers. The sale was a reopening of an $11 billion offering in April. Conventional Treasuries rallied amid speculation about the amount of debt the Fed may purchase to spur the economy in a strategy called quantitative easing.

“It signals people’s expectation of the Fed being able to create some inflation with the QE program,” said Alex Li, an interest-rate strategist in New York at Deutsche Bank AG, one of 18 primary dealers required to bid at Treasury auctions. “With nominal rates so low, in order have high TIPS breakevens you’ve got to have negative real yields on the five-year.”

Holders of TIPS receive an adjustment to the principal value of their securities equal to the change in the consumer price index, in addition to a fixed rate of interest that is smaller than the interest paid to a holder of conventional debt. The difference between is known as the breakeven rate.

Continue reading »

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Jul 19

See also:

Japan bribes small nations with cash and prostitutes to gain support for the mass slaughter of whales

Japan Mulls Monetisation of Public Debt And Yen Devaluation By 30 Percent

Analysts: Risk of Japan Going Bankrupt is Real


My $80,000 Says Deflation Will Only Get Worse

mt-fuji_risk-of-japan-going-bankrupt-is-real

Naoto Kan may get the state dinners and the motorcades, but he no longer runs Japan. Economist Masaaki Shirakawa does.

If anything is clear since the drubbing that Prime Minister Kan’s Democratic Party of Japan took earlier this week, it’s that politicians are passing the buck to the central bank. Expect Bank of Japan Governor Shirakawa to feel more pressure to boost economic growth than ever before.

You may think you have seen this movie before. You haven’t. Increased reliance on the BOJ will end badly for the world economy.

It’s now entirely possible that, come September, Japan will have its sixth leader in four years. Speculation is growing that a power struggle could nudge Kan out of a job he assumed just five weeks ago. That would be a blow to investors. Kan is the only leader in 20 years who has talked seriously about ending Japan’s debt-fueled-growth insanity. Continue reading »

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Jun 24

EUROCOLLAPSECOULD DRAG EUROPE INTO CONFLICT (Express):

THE euro is on the verge of a collapse that could drag Europe into conflict, billionaire financier George Soros warned yesterday.

The veteran investor said massive budget cuts proposed by Germany could destabilise the European Union by dragging down its neighbours’ economies.

He said: “German policy is a danger for Europe. Unfortunately, a collapse of the euro and the European project cannot be ruled out.

“That would be tragic because then Europe would be threatened by the sort of conflicts between states that have shaped European history.”

And of course the Germans would be to blame for this!

So step up Germany and follow the plans of the elitists to loot the taxpayers (everywhere) until there is nothing left with unconstitutional bailouts and quantitative easing.


Legendary investor George Soros has called on Germany to leave the euro unless it is willing to embrace a growth strategy, describing Berlin’s austerity doctrine as a threat to democracy and political stability in Europe.

George Soros tells Germany to step up to its responsibilities, or leave EMU
George Soros tells Germany to step up to its responsibilities, or leave EMU

“German policy is becoming a danger that could destroy the European Project. A collapse of the euro cannot be excluded,” he told the German weekly Die Zeit.

“Unless Germany changes policy, its withdrawal from the currency union would be helpful for the rest of Europe. At the moment Germany is pushing its neighbours into deflation: this threatens a long phase of stagnation, leading to nationalism, social unrest, and zenophobia. It endangers democracy,” he said.

Mr Soros saw the political effects of wage cuts first-hand during the Great Depression, and narrowly survived the Holocaust as a Jewish boy in Nazi-controlled Budapest. He has since dedicated much of his wealth to philanthropic works promoting freedom and pluralism (ROFL!) across the globe, mostly through Open Society institutes.

Philanthropic works: Top billionaire club in bid to curb overpopulation (Times)

His comments reflect growing alarm in influential circles on both sides of the Atlantic over the 1930s-style policies of wage cuts and debt-deflation being imposed up the Club Med bloc, Ireland, and parts of Eastern Europe by the EU authorities, at the behest of Berlin. Continue reading »

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May 25

Renaissance 2.0: Lesson 1 – Revisiting American History – Financial Empire

Renaissance 2.0: Lesson 2 – Revisiting Economics 101 – Debt

Renaissance 2.0: Lesson 3 – Revisiting Civics 101 – Ownership

Renaissance 2.0: Lesson 5 – The Emerging Global Empire – The New World Order


1 of 4:

Added: 26. March 2010

Lesson 4 (part 1) – The Culture of Empire moves into a deeper dialogue about the empire system we’re caught in. Part 1 addresses our wealth illusion, freedom illusion, exponential growth, inflation/deflation, and bankruptcies.

2 of 4:

Added: 26. March 2010

Lesson 4 (part 2) – Part 2 focuses exclusively on the issue of scale. As the debt-based empire grows, the scale of our system grows causing all sorts of problems related to the loss of meaning, community, freedom, and agency.

3 of 4:

Added: 27. March 2010

Lesson 4 (part 3) – Part 3 focuses on the issue of velocity. The velocity of money is a standard economic concept, but economists ignore the issue of human velocity caused by the system, which results in the loss of rest, joy, delight, and deeper issues.

4 of 4:

Added: 27. March 2010

Lesson 4 (part 4) – Part 4 focuses on the rise of narcissism, increasing pathology and oppression, and how the financial empire eventually replaces government

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Apr 30

See also:

Mike Krieger: Goodbye Disneyland! – The Neo-Feudalistic, Gulag Casino Economy Has Already Begun


Presenting the latest terrific analysis by Michael Krieger, formerly a macro analyst at Bernstein, and currently running his own fund, KAM LP, who joins Willem Buiter and everyone else left with a gram of prudence, in realizing that this is nothing more than the “last dance.”

“History is a set of lies agreed upon.”
– Napoleon Bonaparte

Most people prefer to believe their leaders are just and fair even in the face of evidence to the contrary, because most people do not want to admit they do not have the courage to do anything about it.  Most propaganda is not designed to fool the critical thinker, but only to give moral cowards an excuse not to think at all”
–  Michael Rivero

Every man gotta right to decide his own destiny, And in this judgment there is no partiality. So arm in arms, with arms, we’ll fight this little struggle, ‘Cause that’s the only way we can overcome our little trouble. –  Bob Marley, Zimbabwe

A Thousand Words On Conventional Wisdom

Conventional wisdom.  Many market analysts define conventional wisdom in relation to what direction the market is going to head in the future, but I think this is an utter mischaracterization of the concept.  For example, someone that is bullish on the market right now is likely to see conventional wisdom on stocks and the economy as overly bearish after ten years of no returns for U.S. equities.  In contrast, someone that expects a market collapse will say that everyone is a cheerleader and that the “conventional wisdom” after such a huge rally is for stocks to continue to go up.  This is not how I would describe conventional wisdom and all is does is drag the debate into the intellectual gutter.  Rather, to me conventional wisdom is more the “zeitgeist” of the financial and economic community at any given time.  Zeitgeist is defined by the Merriam-Webster dictionary as:  the general intellectual, moral, and cultural climate of an era.  In this sense an “era” will generally mean a lengthy period of time, several decades or perhaps even more extended periods.  That said, what is interesting is that every cycle in the global economy seems to bring forward distinct “mini-zeitgeists” that the experts create to justify market movements or give credence to economic dogma.

When I define conventional wisdom in this manner what I have found is that I almost always disagree with conventional wisdom.  Two very interesting recent periods were fall 2007-July 2008 and then mid-2008-early 2009 period.  In the first period, it was clear to me that decoupling was impossible because the U.S. was too large and it was clearly on the verge of collapse and, more importantly, that China and the U.S. were joined at the hip in a Keynesian economic Frankenstein that would not be easily severed.  Despite what I thought was pretty obvious at the time, conventional wisdom was that the BRICS had decoupled and all would be well.  Rather than seeing the commodity surge as the flight out of the dollar due to the distinct money policies of the U.S. Fed and everyone else, the rally was seen as evidence of decoupling.  This is mainly because conventional wisdom tends to view rising assets as a signal of prosperity.  I believe this was and is generally due to a misunderstanding of economics (we are all taught mostly rubbish in schools) and a shocking ignorance of the global financial system, how it really works and who/what is pulling the levers.

Continue reading »

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Dec 15

“The US Has No Way of Avoiding a Financial Armageddon,” Says John Williams.

us-hyperinflationary-great-depression

John Williams, who runs the popular counter government data manipulation site Shadowstats, has thrown down the gauntlet to deflationists, and in an extensive report concludes that the probability of a hyperinflationary episode in America over the next year has reached critical levels. While the debate between deflationists and (hyper)inflationists has been a long and painful one, numerous events set off in motion by the Bernanke Fed (as a direct legacy of the Greenspan multi-decade period of cheap and boundless credit) may have well cast America as the unwilling protagonist in the sequel of the failed monetary policy economic experiment better known as Zimbabwe.

Williams does not mince his words:

The U.S. economic and systemic solvency crises of the last two years are just precursors to a Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great depression. Such will reflect a complete collapse in the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, a collapse in the normal stream of U.S. commercial and economic activity, a collapse in the U.S. financial system as we know it, and a likely realignment of the U.S. political environment. The current U.S. financial markets, financial system and economy remain highly unstable and vulnerable to unexpected shocks. The Federal Reserve is dedicated to preventing deflation, to debasing the U.S. dollar. The results of those efforts are being seen in tentative selling pressures against the U.S. currency and in the rallying price of gold.

And even as Bernanke continues existing in a factless vacuum where he sees no asset bubbles, Williams takes aim at the one party almost exclusively responsible for the economic carnage that will soon transpire:

The crises have been generated out of and are centered on the United States financial system, triggered by the collapse of debt excesses actively encouraged by the Greenspan Federal Reserve. Recognizing that the U.S. economy was sagging under the weight of structural changes created by government trade, regulatory and social policies — policies that limited real consumer income growth — Mr. Greenspan played along with the political and banking systems. He made policy decisions to steal economic activity from the future, fueling economic growth of the last decade largely through debt expansion.

The Greenspan Fed pushed for ever-greater systemic leverage, including the happy acceptance of new financial products, which included instruments of mis-packaged lending risks, designed for consumption by global entities that openly did not understand the nature of the risks being taken. Complicit in this broad malfeasance was the U.S. government, including both major political parties in successive Administrations and Congresses.
As with consumers, the federal government could not make ends meet while appeasing that portion of the electorate that could be kept docile by ever-expanding government programs and increasing government spending. The solution was ever-expanding federal debt and deficits.

Purportedly, it was Arthur Burns, Fed Chairman under Richard Nixon, who first offered the advice that helped to guide Alan Greenspan and a number of Administrations. The gist of the wisdom imparted was that if you ran into problems, you could ignore the budget deficit and the dollar. Ignoring them did not matter, because doing so would not cost you any votes.
Back in 2005, I raised the issue of a then-inevitable U.S. hyperinflation with an advisor to both the Bush Administration and Fed Chairman Greenspan. I was told simply that “It’s too far into the future to worry about.”

Indeed, pushing the big problems into the future appears to have been the working strategy for both the Fed and recent Administrations. Yet, the U.S. dollar and the budget deficit do matter, and the future is at hand. The day of ultimate financial reckoning has arrived, and it is playing out.

Looking at the events over the past year demonstrates that Williams is not just being a drama queen.

Effective financial impairments and at least partial nationalizations or orchestrated bailouts/takeovers resulted for institutions such as Bear Stearns, Citigroup, Washington Mutual, AIG, General Motors, Chrysler, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, along with a number of further troubled financial institutions. The Fed moved to provide whatever systemic liquidity would be needed, while the federal government moved to finance corporate bailouts and to introduce significant stimulus spending.

Curiously, though, the Fed and the Treasury let Lehman Brothers fail outright, which triggered a foreseeable run on the system and markedly intensified the systemic solvency crisis in September 2008. Whether someone was trying to play political games, with the public and Congress increasingly raising questions of moral hazard issues, or whether the U.S. financial wizards missed what would happen or simply moved to bring the crisis to a head, remains to be seen.

More on the impending timing of the complete economic collapse of the US financial system: Continue reading »

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Oct 11

“If the Fed continues to apply monetary stimulus and subsidy into this system, without a significant reform, the dollar will eventually “break” and the real economy will temporarily collapse. This will result in the mother of all stagflation.”

In my opinion the US dollar will collapse, the real economy will collapse, the stock market will collapse, but not only temporarily, unless you see time from the perspective of an oak tree.

Stagflation would be great. It rather looks like a hyperinflationary depression to me.

Let’s see.

German miracle in the US?!:

“The traditional solution has been a military conflict, which stifles dissent against the government while generating artificial demand sufficient to energize the productive economy. It is a means of exporting your social misery, official corruption, and fiscal irresponsibility to another, weaker people.”

“One only has to look at the “German miracle” of the 1930’s to see this progression from artificial stimulus, to domestic seizure of assets, to scapegoating and aggressive wars of acquisition, as described above. But this progress out of economic depression had made Hitler and Mussolini the darlings of Wall Street and the international financiers. Indeed, Time Magazine had even named Hitler their “Man of the Year” for this economic miracle, even though it was a fraudulent house of cards.”

Maybe that is what Obama’s  ‘change’ is all about.

We are living in interesting times. That’s for sure.


As part of their program of ‘quantitative easing’ which is another name for currency devaluation through extraordinary expansion of the monetary base, the Fed has very obviously created an inflationary bubble in the US equity market.

(Click on images to enlarge them)

monetarybase

Why has this happened? Because with a monetary expansion intended to help cure an credit bubble crisis that is not accompanied by significant financial market reform, systemic rebalancing, and government programs to cure and correct past abuses of the productive economy through financial engineering, the hot money given by the Fed and Treasury to the banking system will NOT flow into the real economy, but instead will seek high beta returns in financial assets.

price-earnings-ratio

Why lend to the real economy when one can achieve guaranteed returns from the Fed, and much greater returns in the speculative markets if one has the right ‘connections?’

bankcredit

The monetary stimulus of the Fed and the Treasury to help the economy is similar to relief aid sent to a suffering Third World country. It is intercepted and seized by a despotic regime and allocated to its local warlords, with very little going to help the people.

price-earnings-ratio-2

By far this presents the most compelling case for a deflationary episode. As the money that is created flows into financial assets, it is ‘taxed’ by Wall Street which takes a disproportionately large share in the form of fees and bonuses, and what are likely to be extra-legal trading profits.

If the monetary stimulus is subsequently dissipated as the asset bubble collapses, except that which remains in the hands of the few, it leaves the real economy in a relatively poorer condition to produce real savings and wealth than it had been before. This is because the outsized financial sector continues to sap the vitality from the productive economy, to drag it down, to drain it of needed attention and policy focus.

At the heart of it, quantitative easing that is not part of an overall program to reform, regulate, and renew the system to change and correct the elements that caused the crisis in the first place, is nothing more than a Ponzi scheme. The optimal time to reform the system was with the collapse of LTCM, and prior to the final repeal of Glass-Steagall, and the raging FIRE sector creating serial bubbles.

These injections of monetary stimulus to maintain a false equilibrium is in reality creating an increasingly unsustainable and unstable monetary disequilibrium within the productive economy. As the real economy contracts, the amount of money supply that the economy can sustain without triggering a monetary inflation decreases, and in a nonlinear manner. This is because the money multiplier does not ‘work’ the same in reverse, owing to the ability of private individuals and corporations to default on debt.

Ironically, with each iteration of this stimulus and seizure of wealth, the dollar becomes progressively weaker because there is a smaller productive economy to support it, even if there are less dollars, despite the nominal gains in GDP which are an accounting illusion. This has been further enabled by the dollar’s status as reserve currency backed by nothing since 1971, which has created an enormous overhang of dollars in the hands of other nations.

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Sep 12


September 12, 2009

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Aug 11

The Crony Capitalist Bailout Nation

The starting point for all analysis of the ongoing bailout orgy that is currently being used in crony capitalist fashion to transfer wealth from our middle class to the Illuminati and their transnational conglomerates is whether these bailouts are authorized by the US Constitution. The answer is a resounding NO!!!

Nothing in the Constitution could ever be interpreted in any manner that would in any way allow the conversion of our quasi-capitalist republic into a Marxist-fascistic police state, which is the last thing our Founding Fathers had in mind.

How can our government simply hand over fiat money created out of thin air, which in itself totally violates the provisions in our Constitution dealing with the issuance of money, to whoever they deem to be too-big-to-fail?

The very idea of such targeted bailouts violates every precept upon which our nation was founded, and our Constitution in no way allows the bailout of any private person or business entity, especially where this creates special privileges to be given to a chosen few “anointed” entities at the expense of our citizens in general.

Regulation of interstate commerce does not mean doling out crony capitalist bailouts, which amount to nothing short of the implementation of feudalism under the Puppet Master oligarchs of our Shadow Government.

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Jul 31

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Jul 04

Special guest, Paul Craig Roberts.

1 of 4:

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Jul 03

“…, punishing savers with negative deposit rates is the height of stupidity.”

“It would be fitting if there was an immediate run on deposits. And if that happens what will Sweden do? Halt deposits? Sweden risks (and deserves) a currency collapse and bank runs for this insane effort. Look for capital flight in Sweden.”


There has been a lot of ludicrous recommendations recently to combat deflation by making deposit rates negative. I did not think any central bank would be dumb enough to try it. I thought wrong.

Today, Riksbank, Sweeden’s central bank cut the deposit rate to -0.25% effectively charging savers interest on deposited money.

DATE 2/07/2009
The weak development of the economy requires a somewhat more expansionary monetary policy. The Executive Board of the Riksbank has therefore decided to cut the repo rate by 0.25 of a percentage point to 0.25 per cent.

Deep economic downturn

Economic activity abroad is very weak and this hits Sweden hard. Exports have fallen substantially and the situation on the labour market is continuing to deteriorate rapidly. The information received in recent months points to the economic downturn in 2009 being somewhat deeper than the Riksbank forecast in April.

Deposit Rate

The decision on the repo rate will apply with effect from Wednesday, 8 July. The deposit rate is at the same time cut to -0.25 per cent and the lending rate to 0.75 per cent.

Sweden Attempts To Boost Lending

Please consider Sweden cuts rates to new low, offers banks loans.

Sweden’s Riksbank cut interest rates to a fresh record low on Thursday and offered banks 100 billion crowns ($13.2 billion) to boost lending as it strives to reverse the country’s worst recession since the 1940s.

The central bank lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.25 percent in a surprise move, putting official rates at their lowest since records began in 1907, and said it expected rates to remain at that level until late 2010.

“It’s a double whammy, or even a triple whammy,” said Roger Josefsson at Danske Markets.

“The deposit rates are actually negative now. In some sense they are creating a money machine for banks. You can lend all you want, but don’t put that back into the central bank.”

Sweden was plunged into recession late last year as the global financial crisis pulled the plug on market demand, leaving firms such as world number two truck firm Volvo scrambling to cut costs and shed jobs.

The central bank forecast the economy will contract 5.4 percent this year and return to tepid growth of 1.4 percent next year.

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