Aug 09

“The future is unknown and we are not dealing with markets that are free markets anymore…now we have government interventions everywhere. [But] in the last say twelve months, I have observed an increasing number of academics who are questioning monetary policies. That’s why I think they will take the gold away and go back to some gold standard by revaluing the gold say from now $1000/oz to say $10,000 dollars. An individual should definitely own some physical gold. The bigger question is where should he store it? because… the failure of monetary policies will not be admitted by the professors that are at central banks, they will then go and blame someone else for it and then an easy target would be to blame it on people that own physical gold because – they can argue – well these are the ones that do take money out of circulation and then the velocity of money goes down – we have to take it away from them… That has happened in 1933 in the US.”

Related info:

What Gold Nationalization Really Means

Roosevelt Gold Confiscation In 1933: ‘No American Could Visit A Safe Deposit Box For Some Time Without A Government Agent Accompanying Him’

On This Day In 1933

The Day The Government Seized Americans’ Gold – April 5th 1933


marc-faber
Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude. Dr Faber publishes a widely read monthly investment newsletter “The Gloom Boom & Doom Report” report which highlights unusual investment opportunities, and is the author of several books including “ TOMORROW’S GOLD – Asia’s Age of Discovery”.

“They’ll Blame Physical Gold Holders For The Failure Of Monetary Policies” Marc Faber Explains Everything (Marcopolis, Aug 7, 2015):

Interview with Marc Faber, Editor and Publisher of “The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’”

In this exclusive interview with Marcopolis.net Marc Faber covers it all: from commodities and China to the outlook on inflation, the Euro and gold. According to him the global economy is not healing. To the contrary, we might find ourselves back into recession within six months or a year. In that case he expects more money printing by central banks, which eventually could lead to high inflation rates and renewed strength in commodity prices.

On the bright side, he sees great economic potential in Vietnam. Also, the Iraqi stock market has good potential now that a deal with Iran has been reached. While mining stocks are extremely depressed we might see defaults before any meaningful recovery.

*  *  *

In your 2002 book “Tomorrow’s gold” you identified two major investment themes: emerging markets along with commodities. That was a great call. As for commodities, they had a great run up until 2008. Then they crashed sharply along with everything else just to recover strongly into 2011. Since then they have acted weakly, and recently commodities even reached a 13-years low. Is this the end of the commodities-super-cycle, as some have claimed, or is it more like a correction? Continue reading »

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Aug 08

Indeed.

And the big reset is coming.

I would protect my assets by owning physical gold and silver (outside the banking system).

This is not about short term gain, this is part of the strategy to survive the coming total financial collapse.

That said, I believe the gold bugs will be proven right and at one point, both gold and silver prices, will jump to unknown heights.


Full interview with Stephen Schork after the jump:

schork_0

Stephen Schork: The Commodity Crash Is “A Canary In The Coal Mine For The Global Economy” (ZeroHedge, Aug 8, 2015):

The best thing about the commodity crash relapse taking place so quickly after the last swoon – recall tha we have had two oil bear markets within 8 months – is that all those hollow chatterboxes and econo-tourists who swore that tumbling oil is “unambiguously good” and “great for the economy” (first and foremost Larry Kudlow and then proceeding with every single sellside strategist and economissed), have been laughed out of even CNBC’s studio, and are nowhere to be found this time around because not only did all those promises of a surge in consumer spending never materialize (for reasons, or rather one reasonwhich we explained extensively before), but the observent public still remembers all too well how countless ‘experts’ confusing cause (a gobal slowdown in the economy) with effect (crashing commodities).

Therefore, we were delighted when someone who actually understands the energy market for a change, The Schork Report’s Stephen Schork, appeared on BBG’s Pimm Fox yesterday to explain not only what the immediate future holds for both oil and gasoline prices, but why, when one actually gets cause and effect right, “this drop in oil prices, this drop industrial metal prices, this is not good. It’s a canary in the coal mine that something is not right in the global economy, and that is a concern for us all.Continue reading »

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Aug 06


“Something Has To Give”: Wall Street Finally Noticed The Epic Divergence Between Stocks And Commodities (ZeroHedge, Aug 6, 2015):

We have shown the following chart, showcasing the unprecedented divergence between commodities and stocks countless times:

Bloomberg Commodity Index

And now the sellside is finally starting to notice, and instead of merely falling back on its traditional “but if you ignore energy…” platitudes aimed squarely at the 5-year-old trader market, is taking it seriously. Here is Credit Agricole’s Valentin Marinov with a note released yesterday, which it seems took the market about 24 hours to read and digest.

Stocks still up even as commodities are down – something has to give

The persistent selloff in global commodities (and commodity currencies) of late is attributed to mounting growth concerns (centred on China) as well as USDappreciation in the run up to Fed lift-off. Lower commodity prices have already sent gauges of inflation expectations lower and weighed on global bond yields.

Yet, it seems that these developments are in stark contrasts with the apparent resilience of the developed stock market indices. For example, the VIX index is still trading close to its lowest level this year. The question is then, should we view the apparent resilience of the developed stock markets as a sign that investors are overdoing it selling commodity and risk-correlated currencies. Market shorts seem substantial indeed. It took only some adjustments in RBA’s language to send AUD more than 1.5% higher at one point yesterday.

We are far less sanguine and think that the developed stock markets may be lagging behind other asset classes as investors position ahead of Fed tightening while global economic data continues to fuel market worries. We still see risks on the downside for risk-correlated and commodity currencies going into lift-off, which we expect in September. As highlighted in our recent publication, falling central bank reserves should ultimately bring global asset prices (stocks and bonds) more inline with falling commodity prices and slowing global growth (and global trade). In particular, the FX reserves should fall more on the back of weak (commodity and manufacturing) export revenues. In turn, fears about weakening global demand for stocks and bonds should mount, making current valuations difficult to sustain. Risk appetite should remain subdued and continue to undermine risk-correlated, commodity currencies while propping up safe havens like JPY and EUR. USD should do well as well, but mainly against G10 smalls.

Expect the remainder of the sellside penguin crew to finally “notice” and this gaping divergence in the coming days.

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Jul 24

Grid-Stock-Exchange-Economy-Finance

Commodities Collapsed Just Before The Last Stock Market Crash – So Guess What Is Happening Right Now? (Economic Collapse, July 22, 2015):

If we were going to see a stock market crash in the United States in the fall of 2015 (to use a hypothetical example), we would expect to see commodity prices begin to crash a few months ahead of time.  This is precisely what happened just before the great financial crisis of 2008, and we are watching the exact same thing happen again right now.  On Wednesday, commodities got absolutely pummeled, and at this point the Bloomberg Commodity Index is down a whopping 26 percent over the past twelve months.  When global economic activity slows down, demand for raw materials sinks and prices drop.  So important global commodities such as copper, iron ore, aluminum, zinc, nickel, lead, tin and lumber are all considered to be key “leading indicators” that can tell us a lot about where things are heading next.  And what they are telling us right now is that we are rapidly approaching a global economic meltdown.

If the global economy was actually healthy and expanding, the demand for commodities would be increasing and that would tend to drive prices up.  But instead, prices continue to go down. Continue reading »

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Jul 23

11 Economic Crashes That Are Happening RIGHT NOW

Commodities Collapsed Just Before The Last Stock Market Crash – So Guess What Is Happening Right Now? (Economic Collapse, July 23, 2015):

If we were going to see a stock market crash in the United States in the fall of 2015 (to use a hypothetical example), we would expect to see commodity prices begin to crash a few months ahead of time.  This is precisely what happened just before the great financial crisis of 2008, and we are watching the exact same thing happen again right now.  On Wednesday, commodities got absolutely pummeled, and at this point the Bloomberg Commodity Index is down a whopping 26 percent over the past twelve months.  When global economic activity slows down, demand for raw materials sinks and prices drop.  So important global commodities such as copper, iron ore, aluminum, zinc, nickel, lead, tin and lumber are all considered to be key “leading indicators” that can tell us a lot about where things are heading next.  And what they are telling us right now is that we are rapidly approaching a global economic meltdown.

If the global economy was actually healthy and expanding, the demand for commodities would be increasing and that would tend to drive prices up.  But instead, prices continue to go down. Continue reading »

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Jul 20

Last Night’s Gold Slam So Furious It Halted The Market Not Once But Twice, And The Funniest “Explanation” Yet (ZeroHedge, July 20, 2015):

Yesterday, just before the Chinese market opened, precious metals but mostly gold, flash crashed in milliseconds with a violent urgency never before seen. We documented the unprecedented event last night, but for those who missed it, the following chart from Nanex clearly lays out just how sudden the “out of nowhere” selling was, which led to not one but two 20-second halts in the gold futures market spaced out precisely 30 seconds apart as a result of a Velocity Logic (or lack thereof) event.

gold halted twice

For those following the gold market, last night’s event was not surprising: after all just on this website we have documented at least three occasions when furious algorithmic gold selling broke the gold futures market for at least 10 seconds, to wit: Continue reading »

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Jul 20

Related info:

China Increases Gold Holdings By 57% ‘In One Month’ In First Official Update Since 2009


 

gold smash_0

Gold, Precious Metals Flash Crash Following $2.7 Billion Notional Dump (ZeroHedge, July 19, 2015):

The last time gold plummeted by just over $30 per ounce (dragging down silver and bitcoin with it) and resulted in a crash so furious it led to a “Velocity Logic” market halt for 10 seconds, was on January 6, 2014. Many said this was just perfectly normal selling, although we explicitly said (and showed) that it was a clear case of an HFT algo gone wild (following an order to do just that and slam all sell stops) when someone manipulated the market and repriced gold substantially lower.

Precisely one month ago, some 18 months after the incident, the Comex admitted as much, when it blamed the collapse on “unusually large and atypical trading activity by several of the Firm’s customers and caused the mass entry of order messages by Zenfire, which resulted in a disruptive and rapid price movement in the February 2014 Gold Futures market and prompted a Velocity Logic event.” Curiously despite the “errant” order, gold did not rebound because the entire purpose of the selling slam was to reset the prevailing price far lower. This is what the Comex said in Disciplinary action 14-9807-BC: Continue reading »

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Jul 06

Welcome to the recovery!

Prepare for collapse …


–  Copper Crashes, In Danger Of Breaching 15-Year Support Level (ZeroHedge, July 6, 2015):

While the PBOC was literally everything in its power to keep the SHCOMP green (it was too late to save the Shenzhen, the Chinext or most Chinese stocks as the PBOC’s firepower was limited to just the largest companies), it forgot about that other proxy of overall Chinese health: copper which, as the chart below shows, plunged by 4% to the lowest price since February when the oil commodity crash left everyone speechless and was threatening to destroy the entire junk bond space.

copper 2015-07-06_6-15-31

But while in this centrally-planned world, in which nobody even denies anymore that all markets have become central banker playthings, fundamentals are irrelevant and few have a clue what this latest crash in copper may signify (some do, and it isn’t pretty) an even more disturbing clue for the fate of this erstwhile “market doctor” is revealed when looking at the long-term price chart. Here, as SocGen notes, copper is in danger of breaching a huge 15 year support line… after which it is free fall for a long, long time.

From SocGen

Copper is probing again the 15-year trend line support (5550 levels). Continue reading »

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Jul 04

What JPMorgan is doing to the “Other” commodities space, Citigroup has just done to the “Precious Metals” derivative market.


Citigroup Just Cornered The “Precious Metals” Derivatives Market (ZeroHedge, July 4, 2015)

 

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Feb 24

Commodities Crushed: WTI Plunges To $48 Handle, Copper Breaks Key Support (ZeroHedge, Feb 23, 2015):

Perhaps the world is beginning to realize that “it’s the demand, stupid” as crude oil prices are collapsing this morning (not helped by “all out production” news from Oman). While ‘markets’ rallied peculiarly after last week’s epic surge in inventories and production data, that has all been given back as one trader noted “the market got ahead of itself, even though the rig count has been falling it is not until mid-yr that we are going to see some impact on supply.” WTI is back under $49.  To complete the gloom, Copper is probing lower, breaking key support with projections to 222.50 if this move takes shape.

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Dec 25

COMEX-Silver-Futures

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury during President Reagan’s first term. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal. He has held numerous academic appointments, including the William E. Simon Chair, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Georgetown University, and Senior Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

The Lawless Manipulation of Bullion Markets by Public Authorities (Paul Craig Roberts and Dave Kranzler, Dec 22, 2014):

Note: In this article the times given are Eastern Standard Time. The software that generated
the graph uses Mountain Standard Time. Therefore, read the x-axis two hours later than the axis indicates.

The Federal Reserve and its bullion bank agents are actively using uncovered futures contracts to illegally manipulate the prices of precious metals in order to keep interest rates below the market rate. The purpose of manipulation is to support the U.S. dollar’s reserve status at a time when the dollar should be in decline from the over-supply created by QE and from trade and budget deficits. Continue reading »

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Dec 22

Commodity Index Bloomberg

Bloomberg’s Commodity Index Drops To Lowest Since 2009: What Does It Mean? (ZeroHedge, Dec 22, 2014):

Moments ago we learned that for all talk of a commodity “bottom”, the “energetic” dead cat has resumed its inverse bounce. To wit:

  • BLOOMBERG COMMODITY INDEX EXTENDS DROP TO LOWEST SINCE 2009

So what does that mean? The answer: it all depends on whose narrative one chooses to believe and/or which narrative the US Ministry of truth is promoting on any given day in order to boost confidence.

The main plotline now is simple: plunging commodity prices (just don’t call them deflation, “negative inflation” is much better) are a huge tax cut on the US consumer the pundits will have you know. And why not: so simple a Jonahtan Gruber could have come up with it.

The only problem is that you learn all this from the same pundits who told you just a few months ago, that soaring commodity prices are great for the economy, for jobs, and, drumroll, for the consumer. Continue reading »

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Dec 17

Gold-Vault

Commodity Trading Giant Exits Physical Gold Due To “Lack Of Physical With A Documented Origin” (ZeroHedge, Dec 16, 2014):

Back in March, otherwise very under-the-radar Swiss commodities trading giant Gunvor and the fifth largest oil trader in the world, made headlines in the press when one of its then-Russian owners, billionaire Gennady Timchenko (estimated net worth of $8.5 billion), sold his entire 44% stake in the company to his partner in the firm, Torbjorn Tonqvist, just a day before the US revealed its first round of sanctions against individuals affiliated with the Putin regime. Timchenko was among them. As a result of the sale, however, Gunvor avoided falling on the US sanctions list and a Treasury official said that “Gunvor Group Ltd. isn’t subject to automatic blocking from dealing with U.S. persons under Russian sanctions because co-founder Gennady Timchenko owns less than 50 percent of the company.”

Since then the Geneva-based company rarely appeared in the media which is how the nondescript company lliked it. Until last week, that is, when Bloomberg reported that the company was giving up trading physical precious metals, read gold, less than a year after the commodity house started a business dedicated to buying and selling gold. Gunvor is, or rather was, one of the few large commodity firms that handles precious metals. The move into gold was part of an expansion into non-oil businesses that now include iron ore, industrial metals and natural gas. Gold trading was done by a handful of people in Singapore and Geneva.

Gunvor’s move away from physical commodities trading in itself is not surprising: recall that first it was Germany banking titan Deutsche Bank which announced it would no longer trade physical precious metals last month. Continue reading »

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Dec 11

The silent crash in commodities—a warning sign (CNBC, Dec 9, 2014):

If the commodity markets were followed as widely as the stock market, the financial world would be buzzing with the news of a crash that has taken place in the value of “stuff.”

While the plunging prices of oil, natural gas and gasoline are making headlines every day, thanks to the benefits accruing to consumers of energy products, the message of the commodity markets, in many ways, is hardly a reassuring one when it comes to the outlook for global economic growth. Continue reading »

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Nov 06

Global Commodity Prices Are Collapsing At The Fastest Pace Since Lehman (Zerohedge, Nov 5, 2014):

Nothing to see here, move along…

We are sure it’s nothing to worry about, and in now way indicative of any global aggregate economic weakness, but global commodity prices (that would be the ‘stuff’ that is used to make the ‘stuff’ we all buy every day) are collapsing at the fastest rate since Lehman…

Global Commodity Prices Are Collapsing At The Fastest Pace Since Lehman

Of course, it’s all about over-supply, not under-demand… just like the Baltic Dry was not low because of shitty trade volumes but because of too many ships… but it’s just the other side of an uncomfortably real mal-investment-driven fiasco…

As the chart below shows… maybe it is the economy stupid and with US GDP expectations being ratcheted down after construction spending and trade deficit data, maybe the US is not decoupling after all. Continue reading »

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Jul 02

Gold & Silver Hit Multi-Month Highs As ETF Inflows Surge Most In 21 Months (ZeroHedge, July 2, 2014):

The last 2 days have seen something ‘odd’ happen in gold markets. As the China commodity finance deals are unwound and massive futures positions squeezed, Gold ETFs have seen the biggest inflows since September 2012 (and are their highest in 2 months). Whether this is the start of trend is unclear (as perhaps the conspiracy ‘fact’ proof of manipulation and rigging in the gold markets stalled the hollowing out of the gold complex). Ironic that this considerable rise should occur shortly after rumors of Germany’s end to repatriation calls. Gold (and silver) has broken out once again this morning after the early dump on ADP ‘good’ news is well bid to 3-month highs.

20140702_gold

Bloomberg has some color from analysts… Continue reading »

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May 14

Gold fix teaser_0

–  From Rothschild To Koch Industries: Meet The People Who “Fix” The Price Of Gold (ZeroHedge, May 14, 2014):

Earlier today many were stunned when the historic, 117-year old, London Silver Fix announced that in three months it would no longer exist. However, silver is only one half of the world’s two best known precious metals. Which is why we decided to take a long, hard look at that other fix: gold.

The reason for this particular inquiry is because in the aftermath of the rapid and dramatic departure of the world’s largest bank by outstanding notional derivatives, and Europe’s biggest bank by any metric, Deutsche Bank, from the precious metal fix, something felt out of place: almost as if the participants of the “fixing” process which for so many years took place in the office of none other than Rothschild on St. Swithin’s Lane in London, were suddenly scrambling to disappear without a trace.

In conducting our research we hope to not only memorialize just who are these particular individuals who “fix” gold using nothing but publicly available information of course – because after all it is not as if they have anything to hide or fear – but to connect some of the very peculiar dots behind the scenes of what to some, is the original, and most manipulated market in history – that of gold. Continue reading »

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May 14

silver-coins

The Beginning Of The End Of Precious Metals Manipulation: The London Silver Fix Is Officially Dead (ZeroHedge, May 13, 2014):

Following a crackdown on precious metal manipulation by various European regulators (mostly Germany’s BaFin, recall “Precious Metals Manipulation Worse Than Libor Scandal, German Regulator Says“), which led to the shocking outcome that Deutsche Bank would pull out of the London gold and silver fixing committees, the London Silver Market Fixing company ended up with a most curious outcome: it would have just two members: HSBC and Bank of Nova Scotia. And, as an even more shocking result, overnight the London Silver Fix announced that after August 14, 2014 it will no longer exist – the first of many victories for all those who have fought for fair and unmanipulated precious metal markets.

From the press release:

The London Silver Market Fixing Limited (the ‘Company’) announces that it will cease to administer the London Silver Fixing with effect from close of business on 14 August 2014. Until then, Deutsche Bank AG, HSBC Bank USA N.A. and The Bank of Nova Scotia will remain members of the Company and the Company will administer the London Silver Fixing and continue to liaise with the FCA and other stakeholders.

The period to 14 August 2014 will provide an opportunity for market-led adjustment with consultation between clients and market participants. Continue reading »

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Apr 23

Goldman Sachs Stands Firm as Banks Exit Commodity Trading (Blomberg, April 23, 2014):

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), whose three top executives began their careers at the firm in the commodity-trading unit, is poised to gain market share as pressure from regulators drives competitors to scale back.

Barclays Plc (BARC), the U.K.’s second-largest bank, said that it’s exiting commodities businesses other than trading precious metals and derivatives tied to oil, U.S. gas and commodity indexes. In January, the London-based bank cut jobs in the group that traded raw materials and in February shut power-trading desks in the U.S. and Europe.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) last month announced the $3.5 billion sale of its raw-materials trading unit to Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. and Morgan Stanley (MS) plans to sell its physical oil business to Russia’s OAO Rosneft. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Barclays and JPMorgan were the biggest traders of commodity derivatives among banks, according to a Greenwich Associates survey last year.

“The more banks that exit commodities trading, the less competitive it becomes for the banks which stick with it,” Jeffery Harte, an analyst at Sandler O’Neill & Partners LP, said in a phone interview. Goldman Sachs has “the bigger franchise to be a winner. It now has a much bigger piece of a much smaller pie.” Continue reading »

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Apr 20

Barclays

Barclays Latest To Exit Commodity Trading, Layoff Several Thousand Staff (ZeroHedge, April 20, 2014):

 With JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank having exited the commodities business (and numerous other banks discussing it ahead of the Fed and regulators’ decisions over banking rules of ownership), it appears a few short months of regulatory scrutiny is enough to warrant more broad-based cuts across bulge-bracket banks historically most manipulated and profitable business units. As The FT reports, Barclays, one of the world’s biggest commodities traders, is planning to exit large parts of its metals, agricultural and energy business in a move expected to be announced this week. This comes on the heels of Barclays shuttering its power-trading operations (after refusing to pay $470mm in fines) with CEO Jenkins expected to announce several thousand layoffs.

Continue reading »

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