Aug 29

damian-mcbride-collapse

According to McBride,

We were close enough in 2008 and what’s coming is on 20 times that scale.


We Are All Preppers Now (ZeroHedge, Aug 28, 2015):

Via The Mises Institute,

Damian McBride is the former head of communications at the British treasury and former special adviser to Gordon Brown, erstwhile Prime Minister of the U.K. Yesterday he tweeted some surprising advice in response to the plunge in global equities markets.;

Advice on the looming crash, No. 1: get hard cash in a safe place now; don’t assume banks & cashpoints will be open, or bank cards will work.

Crash advice No. 2: do you have enough bottled water, tinned goods & other essentials at home to live a month indoors? If not, get shopping.

Crash advice No. 3: agree a rally point with your loved ones in case transport and communication gets cut off; somewhere you can all head to.

Evidently, McBride interprets the wipe-out of over $3 trillion in total global market cap during the three-day rout as a prelude to a much broader and deeper financial crash that will precipitate civil unrest. Continue reading »

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Aug 28

The Great Unwind, China Begins Dumping Treasuries (Sprott Money):

US Treasuries-2

charts from: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/americas/united-states/150204/chart-us-foreign-debt

Behind the scenes is an event unfolding that has the market shaking in its boots. Yet you don’t hear this discussed by the mainstream media, let alone investment bankers.

The reason? It is an event that has been talked about throughout China’s rise to prominence. It has been pondered and feared by Western bankers and politicians. The event I am talking about is the dumping of US treasuries by China. Continue reading »

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Aug 28

H/t reader M.G.:

“Here is a voice of sanity in the midst of the happy horseshit about the great revival of the markets:”


China’s economic woes extend far beyond its stock market (Guardian, Aug 27, 2015):

The Chinese government’s heavy handed efforts to contain recent stock market volatility – the latest move prohibits short-selling and sales by major shareholders – have seriously damaged its credibility. But China’s policy failures should come as no surprise. Policymakers there are far from the first to mismanage financial markets, currencies, and trade. Many European governments, for example, suffered humiliating losses defending currencies that were misaligned in the early 1990s.

Still, China’s economy remains a source of significant uncertainty. Indeed, although the performance of China’s stock market and that of its real economy has not been closely correlated, a major slowdown is under way. That is a serious concern, occupying finance ministries, central banks, trading desks, and importers and exporters worldwide.

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Aug 28

H/t reader M.G.:

“If this isn’t a recipe for disaster, I don’t know what is…..”


Six ways China has tried to remedy economic slowdown and shares slide (Guardian, Aug 25, 2015):

Governments can pull many levers to influence the behaviour of households, businesses and investors – Beijing has opted for half a dozen

China has tried to reboot its economy for the last year after it became obvious that a slowdown in early 2014 was turning into a steady decline in growth. Governments can pull many levers to influence the behaviour of households, businesses and investors. Here are the six main ones Beijing has used.

Cutting interest rates

The cut on Tuesday is the fifth since November and brings interest rates in the country down to 4.86% – an all-time low after having averaged 6.36% between 1996 and last year. The People’s Bank of China shaved another 0.25 percentage points off the borrowing and deposit rates to spur bank lending and encourage savers to spend the cash rather than earn a declining return on their money. Continue reading »

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Aug 27

Chinese Wall in the Mist

It’s Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington (ZeroHedge, Aug 27, 2015):

As Bloomberg reports, “China has cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries this month to raise dollars needed to support the yuan in the wake of a shock devaluation two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the matter. Channels for such transactions include China selling directly, as well as through agents in Belgium and Switzerland, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information isn’t public. China has communicated with U.S. authorities about the sales.”

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Aug 27

What China’s Treasury Liquidation Means: $1 Trillion QE In Reverse (ZeroHedge, Aug 27, 2015):

The size of the epic RMB carry trade could be as high as $1.1 trillion. If China were to liquidate $1 trillion in reserves (i.e. USTs) in order to stabilize the yuan in the face of the carry unwind, it would effectively offset 60% of QE3 and put around 200 bps of upward pressure on 10Y yields. So in effect, China’s UST dumping is QE in reverse – and on a massive scale.

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Aug 27

Yuan Strengthens Most Since March, China Unveils New Bailout Source After Rescue Fund Runs Out Of Fire-Power (ZeroHedge, Aug 27, 2015):

Update: China readies new bailout mechanism – pooling CNY2 Trillion of Pension funds for “investment”

A busy night in AsiaPac before China even opens. Vietnam had a failed bond auction, Japanese data was mixed (retail sales good, household spending bad, CPI just right), Moody’s downgrades China growth (surprise!), China re-blames US for global market rout, and then the big one hits – China’s bailout fund needs more money (applies for more loans from banks) – in other words – The PBOC just got a margin call. China margin debt balance fell for 8th straight day (although the short-selling balance picked up to 1-week highs). China unveiled some economic reforms – lifting tax exemption and foreign real estate investment rules. PBOC fixesds the Yuan 0.15% stronger – most since March, but even with last night’s epic intervention, SHCOMP looks set for its worst week since Lehman.

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Aug 27

Chinese Man Jumps From 17th Floor In First Stock Market Casualty (ZeroHedge, Aug 27, 2015):

It appears the collapse of China’s stock market has officially taken its first victim. While we have heard from desperate farmers who lost everything after realizing that making money in stocks is not easier than farmwork, RT reports that a 57-year-old man has allegedly committed suicide in Shenyang, the largest city in Liaoning Province, by jumping off the 17th floor of a building with a black briefcase “full of stock-related materials,” local press reported.

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Aug 27

Visual of Global Military Expenditures

Visual of Global Military Expenditures (Washington Post, August 25, 2015)

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Aug 26

CHINA REAL GDP

China Stunner: Real GDP Is Now A Negative -1.1%, Evercore ISI Calculates (ZeroHedge, Aug 26, 2015):

With Chinese data now an official farce even among Wall Street economists, tenured academics, and all others whose job obligation it is to accept and never question the lies they are fed, the biggest question over the past year has been just what is China’s real, and rapidly slowing, GDP – which alongside the Fed, is the primary catalyst of the global risk shakeout experienced in recent weeks.

One thing that everyone knows and can agree on, is that it is not the official 7% number, or whatever goalseeked fabrication the communist party tries to push to a world that has realized China can’t even manipulate its stock market higher, let alone its economy. Continue reading »

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Aug 26

China Loses All Control: Arrests Journalist, Financial Executive Over Market Crash (ZeroHedge, Aug 26, 2015):

With China’s equity bubble now squarely in the rearview and the stock market crash making headlines the world over, Beijing is out for blood in a desperate attempt to find a scapegoat for a market rout that has rattled the country to the core. In what is perhaps a worrying sign of things to come, overnight China arrested a journalist and a top investment banker for “spreading fake trading information” and “illegal trading”, respectively.

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Aug 26

China Devalues Yuan To Fresh 4-Year Lows, Arrests Top Securities Firm Exec As Stocks Slide Despite Rate Cuts (ZeroHedge, Aug 25, 2015):

Update: Chinese Police arrested managing director Xu Gang of China’s No.1 brokerage CITIC Securities

The Asia morning begins mixed in stock markets, The PBOC explains itself “this is not a shift in monetary policy,” – except it is the first such set of measures since 2008, further deleveraging as China margin debt drops CNY1 Trillion from June peak to lowest since March, Regulators begin probing securities firms (and their malicious short sellers), Index futures trading fees will be raised and trading positions restricted. Stocks are limping only modestly higher (after the rate cuts) as Yuan is fixed at 6.4043 – the lowest since August 2011.

 …

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Aug 25

Devaluation Stunner: China Has Dumped $100 Billion In Treasurys In The Past Two Weeks (ZeroHedge, Aug 25, 2015):

On August 11, China devalued its currency, and in the subsequent 3 days the onshore Yuan, the CNY, tumbled by some 4% against the dollar. Then, as if by magic, the CNY stabilized when China started intervening massively, only this time not through the fixing, but in the actual FX market.

This means that while China has previously been dumping reserves as a matter of FX policy, after August 11 it was intervening directly in the FX market, with the intervention said to really pick up after the FOMC Minutes on August 19, the same day the market finally topped out, and has tumbled into a correction since then. The result was the same: massive FX reserve liquidations to defend the currency one way or the other.

And yet something curious emerges when comparing the traditionally tight, and inverse, relationship between the S&P and the Treausry long-end: the tumble in stocks has not been anywhere near as profound as the jump in yields. In fact, the 30 Year is wider now than where it was the day China announced the Yuan devaluation.

20150825_30YSPXWO

Why is that?

We hinted at the answer on two occasions earlier (here and here) and yet the point is so critical, and was missed by virtually all readers, that it deserves to be repeated once again: as part of China’s devaluation and subsequent attempts to contain said devaluation, it has been purging foreign reserves at an epic pace. Said otherwise, China has sold an epic amount of Treasurys in the past two weeks.

How epic? We turn it over to SocGen once again: Continue reading »

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Aug 24

Chinese Stocks Are Crashing; Yuan Devalues, Deposit Rate Spikes To Record High, Japan Denies “G7 Response” Planned (ZeroHedge, Aug 24, 2015):

Following yesterday’s bloodbath (and the continued carnage around the world), AsiaPac stocks are lower with Japan unable to mount any sustained bounce despite every effort to lift JPY. The propaganda-fest is in full swing as Amari claims JPY is safe-haven asset and Aso denies any coordinated G7 response is being planned (which means they are all feverishly trying to figure out how to ‘save’ the world again from a 4-day stock drop). China is ugly with stocks down hard in the pre-open (CSI-300 -4.3%) as offshore Yuan depo rates spike to 22.9% – a record high – as liquidity outflows must be accelerating (as PBOC adds another CBNY150bn liquidity). China devalues Yuan 0.2% – most in 11 days.

Carnage –

  • *CHINA SHANGHAI COMPOSITE SET TO OPEN DOWN 6.4% TO 3,004.13
  • *CHINA’S CSI 300 INDEX SET TO OPEN DOWN 6.3% TO 3,070.01

This is the 5th day of crashing Chinese stocks in a row…

20150824_yuan4

Chinese Stocks are down 14% since Friday!! Continue reading »

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Aug 24

Coming To America? China Censors Bad Market Talk Amid Meltdown (ZeroHedge, Aug 24, 2015):

Back in July, after a dramatic unwind in the half dozen or so backdoor margin lending channels that had helped drive Chinese stocks to nosebleed levels triggered a terrifying 30% decline (vaporizing billions in paper profits in the process), the Politburo predictably stepped in to rescue the market.

However, when it started to become clear that a succession of declarations, directives, policy rate cuts, and even threats weren’t going to be enough to alleviate the pressure on equities, Beijing looked to take back the narrative by banning the use of certain undesirable phrases.

ChinaHandOnMouth

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Aug 24

Deer

All the charts you need here:

“Black Monday” Brings Global Market Rout, Investors Mourn The Death Of Central Bank Omnipotence (ZeroHedge, Aug 24, 2015)

 

 

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Aug 24

Bloodbath: Emerging Market Assets Collapse As China Selloff Triggers Panic (ZeroHedge, Aug 24, 2015):

On the heels of China’s “failure” to send the PBoC to the rescue with an RRR cut over the weekend, battered EM assets were hit hard again on Monday as stocks, bonds, and currencies all went into panic mode as the global meltdown gathers pace.

 

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Aug 23

H/t reader M.G.:

“China is using pension funds to try and shore up their failing markets. How would you like your pension funds used by the government to stop the implosion? This tells me they are in deeper trouble than they have admitted…..”

And it is the Chinese people that are in real trouble.

A polluted environment, toxic food and a failing illusion of economic growth & prosperity.

And you don’t want to live in Shanghai when the greatest financial collapse in world history will happen.

Surprise! 260 million people live in just 15 Chinese cities (CNN Money, April 21, 2015)


china-crash

China share slide: Pension fund to invest in stock market BBC News, Aug 23, 2015):

China plans to let its main state pension fund invest in the stock market for the first time, the country’s official news agency, Xinhua, has reported.

Under the new rules, the fund will be allowed to invest up to 30% of its net assets in domestically-listed shares.

China’s main pension fund holds 3.5tn yuan ($548bn; £349bn), Xinhua said. Continue reading »

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Aug 23

currency wars

– China chooses her weapons (Gold Money Aug 20, 2015):

China’s recent mini-devaluations had less to do with her mounting economic challenges, and more to do with a statement from the IMF on 4 August, that it was proposing to defer the decision to include the yuan in the SDR until next October

The IMF’s excuse was to avoid changes at the calendar year-end and to allow users of the SDR time to “adjust to a potential changed basket composition”. It was a poor explanation that was hardly credible, given that SDR users have already had five years to prepare; but the decision confirming the delay was finally released by the IMF in a statement on Wednesday 19th. Continue reading »

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Aug 22

ExplosionTeaser_0

Caught On Tape: Another Huge Chemical Warehouse Explosion Rocks China (ZeroHedge, Aug 22, 2015)

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