Kiev will not pay Russia the $3 billion debt owed to it, unless other conditions of the restructuring are applied. This was stated by Arseniy Yatsenyuk.
“I said to other lenders there are other conditions to be met or you will not receive the debt. The basic condition is reducing debt by 20%, the transfer of all debts of four years. If you do not like this, then you will receive the decision of the government of Ukraine via a moratorium on paying Russia the $3 billion. It is very easy to explain to our neighbours and the aggressor state: we will not pay $3 billion “,— quotes “RIA Novosti” citing the Prime Minister of Ukraine Continue reading »
As we noted previously, for the first time ever, primary dealers’ corporate bond inventories have turned unprecedentedly negative. While in the short-term Goldman believes this inventory drawdown is probably a by-product of strong customer demand, they are far more cautious longer-term, warning that the “usual suspects” are not sufficient to account for the striking magnitude of inventory declines… and are increasingly of the view that “the tide is going out” on corporate bond market liquidity implying wider spreads and thus higher costs of funding to compensate for the reduction is risk-taking capacity.
The U.S. government just increased its credit limit…
On Monday, President Obama signed a budget deal that raised the debt ceiling from $18.5 trillion to $20 trillion.
In theory, the debt ceiling limits how much money the U.S. government can borrow. The debt ceiling is now twice as high as it was when Obama took office in 2008. Continue reading »
What Janet knows, as The Burning Platform’s Jim Quinn exclaims, is that a 1% increase in interest rates would increase the interest on the National Debt from $400 billion per year to $600 billion per year, a 50% increase.
Interest rates back at NORMAL historical rates that we had as recently as 2007 would increase the interest on the National Debt to $1 trillion per year, a 150% increase.
Plus, the National Debt increases by $1.5 billion per day, so our interest bill goes up by $35 million per day already.
Do you really think Yellen is going to be increasing interest rates?
Why won’t the American people listen to the warnings? David Stockman was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives from 1977 to 1981, and he served as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan from 1981 to 1985. These days, he is running a website called “Contra Corner” which I highly recommend that you check out. Stockman believes that a global “debt super-cycle” that has been building for decades is now bursting, and he is convinced that the consequences for the U.S. and for the rest of the planet will be absolutely catastrophic. His findings are very consistent with what I have been writing about on The Economic Collapse Blog, and if Stockman is correct the times ahead of us are going to be exceedingly painful. Continue reading »
“The conditions in the economies of the rest of the world have undoubtedly proved weaker compared with a few months ago, in particular in the emerging economies. Global growth forecasts have been revised downwards. This slowdown is probably not temporary.”
Undoubtedly, the most amusing this about the prospect of more easing from the ECB (as telegraphed by Mario Draghi last week) and the BoJ (where Haruhiko Kuroda just jeopardized his status as monetary madman par excellence by failing to expand stimulus) is that both Europe and Japan both recently slid back into deflation despite trillions in central bank asset purchases.
In other words, the market expects both Draghi and Kuroda to double- and triple- down on policies that clearly aren’t working when it comes to altering inflation expectations and/or boosting aggregate demand. Indeed, both Goldman and BofAML said as much last week. For those who missed it, here’s Goldman’s take Continue reading »
And yes, this will end badly.
Europe has unleashed yet another monetary panic, and nowhere is it more visible than in what happened today across the short end of Europe’s government curve. As the table below shows, more than half of European sovereign issuers just saw the yield on their 2 Year Notes trade not only below zero, but hit never before seen negative yields!
I’ve long-stated that the government of the United States is completely insolvent.
And that is 100% true statement.
Last week, beleaguered Illinois Comptroller Leslie Geissler Munger admitted that, thanks to the bitter budget battle going on in Springfield, the state would miss a $560 million pension payment in November. Now, in a move that shouldn’t exactly surprise anyone, Fitch has cut the state’s GO rating citing the budget impasse. The move affects some $27 billion in debt.
While to many Quantitative Tightening is a novel concept, the reality is that China (+ Euroclear) have been dumping Treasurys and liquidating reserves since January when total holdings peaked at $1.6 trillion last summer, and have since declined to $1.38 trillion. It means that China has sold a quarter trillion dollars worth of Treasurys in the past year, in the process offsetting what would have been about 25% of the Fed’s QE3.
Brazil’s economic recession is likely to be deeper and longer than Fitch’s earlier expectations and its performance has diverged materially from those of its rating peers. Medium-term prospects also look weak compared to peers and most other large emerging markets. Fitch forecasts that Brazil’s economy will contract by 3% and 1%, respectively in 2015 and 2016 before recording modest growth in 2017, with risks skewed largely to the downside.
The Fed has managed to kill two birds with one stone: it no longer provides a simple, one-stop-shop way to reconcile the total US credit stock, and it quietly boosted total US consolidated credit by $2.7 trillion to $62.1 trillion as of June 30, 2015.
“Investors” are so desperate to hold on to short-term paper that they paid $100 for a 3-month Treasury-bill at today’s auction. That is a 0% yield – for the first time ever – lower even than the auction right after Lehman’s bankruptcy in Nov 2008.
Following yesterday’s collapse in the Nikkei, when a 4% drop pushed it red for the year below 17,000, down 20% from a high of 21,000 hit just over a month ago, we had just one question for Japan’s pension fund “fudiciaries” who have been “greatly rotating” out of bonds for the past few years as the primary sources for BOJ debt monetization, dumping trillions in fixed income yen, and promptly buying up equities: equities which have gone nowhere in 2015, and which have posted massive losses in the third quarter. The question was:
What are Japan’s pension fund losses after the Nikkei wipeout from 21k to 17K?
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 29, 2015
Less than 24 hours we got the answer, when moments ago Nikkei reported thatQ3 losses at (at least one) pension funds were just under JPY 10 trillion in the third quarter. Continue reading »
Moving on, but it only gets better because suddenly, out of the blue, a new Treasury bond market analyst emerges: none other than disgraced former CIA head David Petraeus, who somehow avoided treason charges when it was revealed that he had a mistress to whom he had leaked confidential material resulting in his prompt termination from the CIA, only to reemerge several years later…. as a Treasury market expert (as well as being recently hired by KKR, of course, just so the private equity company can scrub all of his formerly confidential knowledge before giving him the boot in the nearest future).
CNN introduces him as follows: “Petraeus is one of America’s brightest minds on matters of national security. He served as a top military commander in charge of troops in Iraq and Afghanistan before becoming director of the CIA in 2011.”
Leaving aside the laughable assertion of the first statement, after reading some of his comments we can only imagine he, as a member of the “intelligence community”, is a devoted subscriber of the abovementioned “Strategic Intelligence” newsletter.
Because here is the one statement from Petraeus that we read, read again, then kept rereading for one simple reason…
“There is no shortage of customers for the purchase of U.S. Treasuries,” said Petraeus…. “Given the relative strength of the U.S. economy and the prospect of the Fed raising interest rates at some point in the months ahead, I suspect there will continue to be very keen interest in U.S. Treasuries,” Petraeus said.
… everything in it is dead wrong. Continue reading »
“And just like that Weimar 2.0 is born.“
Last Friday, we posted what we thought was a watershed report by Australia’s largest investment bank Macquarie, one which openly called for central bank funding of fiscal spending, aka “helicopter money”, by directly monetizing treasuries. Ironically, the bank made the call despite admitting that it would not work in the long run, leading to even more stagflation and deflation. This was the gist:
As velocity of money globally continues to fall, conventional QEs have to become exponentially larger, as marginal benefit declines. If public sector is not prepared to step aside, what other measures can be introduced to support nominal GDP and avoid deflation? Continue reading »
– “Junked” Brazil Is Falling Apart At The Seams; Cancels Bond Auction (ZeroHedge, Sep 10, 2015):
Exactly one month ago, in the aftermath of the Chinese devaluation announcement, we made a simple prediction. “Biggest immediate loser from China’s devaluation: Brazil” Today, following the overdue, long anticipated, and yet “shocking” downgrade of Brazil by the S&P to junk, this prediction is coming true.
– Brazil Cut To Junk By S&P, ETF Falls 5% Post-Mkt (ZeroHedge, Sep 9, 2015):
Brazil, whose economy officially slid into recession in Q2 – a quarter during which Brazilians suffered through the worst inflation-growth outcome (i.e. stagflation) in over a decade – and whose efforts to plug a yawning budget gap are complicated by political infighting and a growing public outcry against embattled President Dilma Rousseff, has been cut to junk by S&P.
– Mystery Buyer Of US Treasurys Revealed (ZeroHedge, Sep 8, 2015):
While we already knew that China was selling – and following the record selling of FX reserves in August, so does everyone else – an even more interesting question emerged: who is buying? Thanks to the WSJ we now know the answer: “A little-known New York hedge fund run by a former Yale University math whiz has been buying tens of billions of dollars of U.S. Treasury debt at recent auctions, drawing attention from the Treasury Department and Wall Street.
But the biggest risk by far is that now that the “mystery buyers” has been exposed, it won’t take long for the other, much bigger players – i.e., all the central banks who have been desperate to push yields lower to “confirm” the self-fulfilling narrative that the economy, and inflation, are growing – to inflict the proverbial “max pain” upon Element. In fact, if Talpins is indeed very long TSYs, and has lot of leverage embedded in the trade, one may expect a concerted shorting effort to find out just how much leverage is incorporate in the trades, and push it to the point of breaking. After all, hedge funds exposed with massive positions rarely survive an onslaught by their peers who seek to do just that – inflict “max pain” (see Ackman and Herbalife). Continue reading »
The data point everyone has been waiting on is out and, just as we tipped weeks ago, China liquidated nearly $100 billion in USD assets during the month of August in support of the yuan.
– The Numbers Are In: China Dumps A Record $94 Billion In US Treasurys In One Month (ZeroHedge, Sep 7, 2015):
Shortly after the PBoC’s move to devalue the yuan, we noted with some alarm that it looked as though China may have drawn down its reserves by more than $100 billion in the space of just two weeks. That, we went on the point out, would represent a stunning increase over the previous pace of the country’s reserve draw down, which we began documenting months ahead of the devaluation (see here, for instance). We went on to estimate, based on the projected size of the RMB carry trade unwind, how large the FX reserve liquidation might need to be to offset capital outflows and finally, late last week, we suggested that China’s official FX reserve data was set to become the new risk-on/off trigger for nervous, erratic markets. In short, the pace at which Beijing is burning through its USD assets in defense of the yuan has serious implications not only for investors’ collective perception of market stability, but for yields on core paper, for global liquidity, and for US monetary policy. Continue reading »
– Is China Dumping German Paper Now? Bund Prices Are Collapsing (ZeroHedge, Aug 31, 2015):
German bonds are under significant pressure again this morning – despite equity weakness and US Treasury strength. This raises the rather interesting question of whether – after decimating Treasuries last week, is China turning to its Bund holdings and liquidating them to raise cash?
– The Great Unwind, China Begins Dumping Treasuries (Sprott Money):
Behind the scenes is an event unfolding that has the market shaking in its boots. Yet you don’t hear this discussed by the mainstream media, let alone investment bankers.
The reason? It is an event that has been talked about throughout China’s rise to prominence. It has been pondered and feared by Western bankers and politicians. The event I am talking about is the dumping of US treasuries by China. Continue reading »
– It’s Official: China Confirms It Has Begun Liquidating Treasuries, Warns Washington (ZeroHedge, Aug 27, 2015):
As Bloomberg reports, “China has cut its holdings of U.S. Treasuries this month to raise dollars needed to support the yuan in the wake of a shock devaluation two weeks ago, according to people familiar with the matter. Channels for such transactions include China selling directly, as well as through agents in Belgium and Switzerland, said one of the people, who declined to be identified as the information isn’t public. China has communicated with U.S. authorities about the sales.”
– What China’s Treasury Liquidation Means: $1 Trillion QE In Reverse (ZeroHedge, Aug 27, 2015):
The size of the epic RMB carry trade could be as high as $1.1 trillion. If China were to liquidate $1 trillion in reserves (i.e. USTs) in order to stabilize the yuan in the face of the carry unwind, it would effectively offset 60% of QE3 and put around 200 bps of upward pressure on 10Y yields. So in effect, China’s UST dumping is QE in reverse – and on a massive scale.