Infinite Unknown

You can’t make this stuff up!

- Friday Humor Part Dois – Banco de Portugal “Wink Wink” Edition (ZeroHedge, Feb. 3, 2012):

… the following seminar announcement from the Banco de Portugal, of all places, is truly priceless…

Source: Banco de Portugal

Tags: Banco de Portugal, Banking, Bonds, Debt, Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Portugal

- ‘King Of Bonds‘ Bill Gross Explains Why “We Are Witnessing The Death Of Abundance” And Why Gold Is Becoming The Default “Store Of Value” (ZeroHedge, Feb. 1, 2012):

While sounding just a tad preachy in his February newsletter, Bill Gross’ latest summary piece on the economy, on the Fed’s forray into infinite ZIRP, into maturity transformation, and the lack thereof, on the Fed’s massive blunder in treating the liquidity trap, but most importantly on what the transition from a levering to delevering global economy means, is a must read. First: on the fatal flaw in the Fed’s plan: “when rational or irrational fear persuades an investor to be more concerned about the return of her money than on her money then liquidity can be trapped in a mattress, a bank account or a five basis point Treasury bill. But that commonsensical observation is well known to Fed policymakers, economic historians and certainly citizens on Main Street.” And secondly, here is why the party is over: “Where does credit go when it dies? It goes back to where it came from. It delevers, it slows and inhibits economic growth, and it turns economic theory upside down, ultimately challenging the wisdom of policymakers. We’ll all be making this up as we go along for what may seem like an eternity. A 30-50 year virtuous cycle of credit expansion which has produced outsize paranormal returns for financial assets – bonds, stocks, real estate and commodities alike – is now delevering because of excessive “risk” and the “price” of money at the zero-bound. We are witnessing the death of abundance and the borning of austerity, for what may be a long, long time.” Yet most troubling is that even Gross, a long-time member of the status quo, now sees what has been obvious only to fringe blogs for years: “ Recent central bank behavior, including that of the U.S. Fed, provides assurances that short and intermediate yields will not change, and therefore bond prices are not likely threatened on the downside. Still, zero-bound money may kill as opposed to create credit. Developed economies where these low yields reside may suffer accordingly. It may as well, induce inflationary distortions that give a rise to commodities and gold as store of value alternatives when there is little value left in paper.” Let that sink in for a second, and let it further sink in what happens when $1.3 trillion Pimco decides to open a gold fund. Physical preferably…

From PIMCO’s Bill Gross:

Life – and Death Proposition

• Recent central bank behavior, including that of the U.S. Fed, provides assurances that short and intermediate yields will not change, and therefore bond prices are not likely threatened on the downside.
• Most short to intermediate Treasury yields are dangerously close to the zero-bound which imply limited potential room, if any, for price appreciation.
• We can’t put $100 trillion of credit in a system-wide mattress, but we can move in that direction by delevering and refusing to extend maturities and duration. Continue reading »

Tags: Bill Gross, Bonds, Debt, Economy, Global News, Gold, Government, Obama administration, PIMCO, Politics, U.S.

You can’t make this stuff up!

One of the laments of the uberdoves in the world over the past several years has naturally been the fact that interest rates are bound by Zero on the lower side, and that the lowest possible rate on new paper is, by definition, 0.000%. Which is what led to the advent of QE in the first place: in lieu of negative rates, the Fed was forced to actively purchase securities to catch up to a negative Taylor implied rate. This may be about to change, because as the just released letter from the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, or as we affectionately called the JPMorgan/ Goldman Sachs Chaired committee, the “Supercommittee That Runs America”, simply because it alone makes up Tim Geithner’s mind on what America needs to do funding wise, demand, “It was broadly agreed that flooring interest rates at zero, or capping issuance proceeds at par, was prohibiting proper market function. The Committee unanimously recommended that the Treasury Department allow for negative yield auction results as soon as logistically practical.” And what JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs want, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs get. And once we get the green light on negative yields at auction, next up will be the push for the Fed to impose negative rates on all standing securities, which means that coming soon savers will be literally paying to hold cash. And that will be the final straw.

Not only that, but beginning in just 4 short months, the Treasury may launch a brand new product: a Floating Rate Bond. From the TBAC: Continue reading »

Tags: Barack Obama, Bonds, Debt, Dictatorship, Dollar, Global News, Goldman Sachs, Government, JPMorgan, New World Order, Obama administration, Politics, Timothy Geithner, U.S.

YouTube Added: 17.01.2012

Description:

Press TV interviews Max Keiser, journalist and broadcaster in Paris about the credit rating agency’s role in having nations impose austerity measures on the people of Europe and the damage this is causing to sovereign nations.

Tags: Banking, Bonds, Debt, Dollar, Economy, EU, Euro, Europe, Germany, Global News, Gold, Government, Max Keiser, Politics, Quantitative Easing, Rating, U.S.

- No One Knows Truth About $300 Billion Bonds From Alleged ’34 Plane Crash (Bloomberg, Jan. 18, 2012):

Chris Estrella, a Filipino social worker, says he led a troop of five porters out of a Mindanao jungle in January 2000 with a weather-beaten iron and leather box crammed with $25 billion of U.S. government bearer bonds.

“The elders of the Umayamnon tribe told me an American plane crashed in their river in the 1930s,” Estrella, 47, says by mobile phone from a footpath between the tribal village and Davao, the largest city on the Philippine island. “The river dried up in the 1990s, and the natives went into the plane and found 12 boxes that contained $300 billion in bonds.”

Each box, emblazoned with the Great Seal of the United States and the words “Federal Reserved Bond,” held five gold coins struck with a portrait of George Washington on one side, Estrella says. They rested atop stacks of certificates purporting to have been issued by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in 1934 and redeemable in gold bullion. The notes bore the signature of then Treasury Secretary Henry Morgenthau Jr.

Such fixed-income instruments, also known as coupon bonds, belong to whoever holds them, rather than to a registered owner. Vouchers representing interest payments were attached to the 30- year bonds that were denominated in amounts of as much as $100 million. Estrella says he later brought three other similarly filled chests out of the jungle. Continue reading »

Tags: Bonds, Debt, Economy, Fed, Federal Reserve, Global News, Government, Philippines, Politics, U.S.

- Egan Jones Downgrades Germany From AA To AA- (ZeroHedge, Jan. 18, 2012):

Sean Egan strikes again, this time downgrading Germany from AA to AA-.

Germany maintains its position as the European Union’s top economy. However, Germany has been shouldering the burdens of other EU countries via its exposure to the EFSF and indirectly via the ECB’s hefty exposure to the weaker banks and the weaker sovereign credits. The country’s debt to GDP of 83% as of 2010 (expect near 86% for 2011) and a deficit to GDP of 4.6% is weak (and getting weaker) for a top-tier country. On the positive side, unemployment was only 6.8% but will probably increase as many EU countries implement austerity measures. Other positives were the positive (EUR133B) balance of trade and the positive (EUR193B) current account as of the end of 2010. Inflation has been fairly moderate at 2%, but we expect an increase as a result of the decline in the euro relative to the dollar.

German chancellor Angela Merkel continues to create tension with EU member states by pushing for ratification of changes to the Lisbon Treaty. The government insists that private investors bear more of the costs of further European bailouts. Note, the cost of the bailouts is likely to be absorbed via increased support for the EFSF, the ESM, the ECB and a rise in the number of euros. The fallout from a likely Greek default needs to be monitored.

via Egan-Jones

- Time To Cut Germany’s Credit Rating? Egan-Jones Downgrades To AA- (Forbes, Jan. 18, 2012):

Prone to controversial actions, ratings agency Egan-Jones axed Germany’s sovereign rating from AA to AA- and kept it on negative credit watch. While remaining the Eurozone’s strongest economy, German tax payers will be footing a significant portion of the bill for the different bailout mechanisms in place, from the EFSF to the ECB and even the IMF’s funding facilities.

Speaking with Forbes, Egan-Jones co-founder Sean Egan said “[Germany’s] credit quality has slipped and its debt-to-GDP ratio is increasing.” In the report, the analysts noted the Eurozone’s top dog has debt exceeding €2 trillion ($2.6 trillion) and cash of about €235 billion ($301 billion). Debt-to-GDP levels hit 83% in 2010, will probably hit 92% in 2011 and could reach 116.7% by 2013.

“Germany does benefit from flight to quality flows,” explained Egan, adding that mathematics doesn’t lie, and eventually, someone will have to pay the bill. “The major positive German has realized over the past year has been the significant decline in its funding costs, […] the two-year debt yield has declined from 2% to near 0 while the 10-year has declined from above 3% to below 2%,” read the report.

Continue reading »

Tags: Bonds, Debt, Economy, Egan-Jones, EU, Europe, GDP, Germany, Global News, Government, Politics, Rating

- Hilarity of the Day: Japan’s PM Noda “Japan Must Heed Lessons of Europe” (EX-SKF, Jan. 16, 2012):

According to Bloomberg News, that’s what Noda said on January 14 after reshuffling his increasingly unpopular cabinet.

Mr. Noda, it is Europe and the rest of the world trying their best to avoid being like Japan, after having heeded the lessons of Japan, the one and only country in the whole world whose deficit to GDP ratio well exceeds 200%.

Noda’s lessons learned from Europe? Raise taxes.

From Bloomberg (1/15/2012):

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said containing Japan’s public debt load, the world’s largest, is critical after Standard & Poor’s downgraded credit ratings on France, Austria and seven other European nations.

Continue reading »

Tags: Bonds, Debt, Economy, Government, Japan, Politics

- S&P Says Greek Default Imminent (ZeroHedge, Jan. 16, 2012):

Time for the dominos to fall where they may: head of sovereign ratings at S&P Kraemer spoke on Bloomberg TV, and said the following:

• KRAEMER: GREECE, CREDITORS `RUNNING OUT OF TIME’ IN DEBT TALKS -BBG
• KRAEMER: EURO LEADERS HAVEN’T TACKLED CORE UNDERLYING PROBLEMS -BBG
• KRAEMER SAYS EUROPE MUST DEAL WITH IMBALANCES, COMPETITIVENESS -BBG

And the punchline:

• KRAEMER SAYS HE BELIEVES GREECE WILL DEFAULT SHORTLY – RTRS

The only thing he did not add is that the default will be Coercive. What happens next is anyone’s guess, but whatever it is it is certainly priced in. Also, let’s not forget that the inability of the market to react to any news ever again is most certainly priced in.

Tags: Bonds, Debt, Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Government, Greece, Politics, Standard & Poor's

- Just Say Nein – Bundesbank On European QE: “Abandon The Idea Once And For All”

While it will hardly come as a surprise to many that after making it abundantly clear that Germany is in total disagreement with ECB monetary policies, culminating in the departure of Jurgen Stark from the European central printing authority, Germany will not permit irresponsible, Bernanke-esque monetary policies, it probably should be noted that even following the most recent escalation of adverse developments in Europe, which are now on the verge of unwinding the entire Eurozone and with it the affiliated fake currency, that the German central bank just said that any European QE could only come over its dead body. Today channeling the inscription to the gates of hell from Dante’s inferno is none other than yet another Bundesbank board member, Carl-Ludwig Thiele, who said that “Europe must abandon the idea that printing money, or quantitative easing, can be used to address the euro zone debt crisis…One idea should be brushed aside once and for all – namely the idea of printing the required money. Because that would threaten the most important foundation for a stable currency: the independence of a price stability orientated central bank.”

In other words, the best Europe can hope for is massive liquidity provisioning as has been the case in recent months, when the ECB’s balance sheet has soared by almost $1 trillion in 6 months (perhaps someone should ask the Bundesbank just what they think of that). However, for that to happen, banks have to continue to be on the brink, even more than now one could add, which simply means that the ECB will reactively provide liquidity to insolvent banks (at cheap rates) which will immediately turn around and redeposit the cash back at the ECB, but unlike the US, will not inject the monetary system with unsterilized cash. Which means one thing: Bernanke is and will continue to be stuck as the only source of marginal “Austrian” cash (i.e., market moving) in the world, and once the current episode of EUR-hatred passes, and it will, the revulsion will once again turn to where the next imminent money printing episode will come from – the 3rd subbasement of the Marriner Eccles building.

Reuters explains why the Bundesbank Just Said Nein:

Continue reading »

Tags: Banking, Bonds, Bundesbank, Debt, ECB, Economy, EU, Europe, Germany, Government, Politics, Quantitative Easing

- Has The ECB Given Up On Portugal? (ZeroHedge, Jan. 16, 2012):

Despite disappointing auction results in France, the downgrade hangovers (sell the rumor, buy the news?), and increasingly likely Greek PSI talk epic-fail, most European sovereigns are rallying modestly on the day. Given the expected shift in the AAA benchmark used for margining (dropping higher yielding France ‘AAA’s as they are downgraded will lower AAA benchmark significantly and implicitly widen the yield differential for other sovereigns), it is perhaps no surprise that TPTB are active in BTPs (Italian bonds) but it appears that Portugal (admittedly illiquid) has been left to its own devices. Portuguese 10Y bond spreads to bunds just broke 1250bps, +180bps on the day and at record wides. Given the subordination concerns as ESM is accelerated, it is perhaps no surprise that the ECB’s SMP has seemingly decided that Portugal has crossed the Rubicon into Greece territory.

Tags: Bonds, Debt, ECB, Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Government, Politics, Portugal