Mar 06

broken clock

One Last Look At The Real Economy Before It Implodes – Part 1 (ALT-MARKET, March 4, 2015):

We are only two months into 2015, and it has already proven to be the most volatile year for the economic environment since 2008-2009. We have seen oil markets collapsing by about 50 percent in the span of a few months (just as the Federal Reserve announced the end of QE3, indicating fiat money was used to hide falling demand), the Baltic Dry Index losing 30 percent since the beginning of the year, the Swiss currency surprise, the Greeks threatening EU exit (and now Greek citizens threatening violent protests with the new four-month can-kicking deal), and the effects of the nine-month-long West Coast port strike not yet quantified. This is not just a fleeting expression of a negative first quarter; it is a sign of things to come.

Stock markets are, of course, once again at all-time highs after a shaky start, despite nearly every single fundamental indicator flashing red. But as Zero Hedge recently pointed out in its article on artificial juicing of equities by corporations using massive stock buybacks, this is not going to last much longer, simply because the debt companies are generating is outpacing their ability to prop up the markets. Continue reading »

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Feb 25

14-Signs-Americans-Are-Flat-Broke

14 Signs That Most Americans Are Flat Broke And Totally Unprepared For The Coming Economic Crisis (Economic Collapse, Feb 23, 2015):

When the coming economic crisis strikes, more than half the country is going to be financially wiped out within weeks.  At this point, more than 60 percent of all Americans are living paycheck to paycheck, and a whopping 24 percent of the country has more credit card debt than emergency savings.  One of the primary principles that any of these “financial experts” that you see on television will teach you is to have a cushion to fall back on.  At the very least, you never know when unexpected expenses like major car repairs or medical bills will come along.

And in the event of a major economic collapse, if you do not have any financial cushion at all you will be a sitting duck.  Yes, I know that there are millions upon millions of families out there that are just trying to scrape by from month to month at this point.  I hear from people that are deeply struggling in this economy all the time.  So I don’t blame them for not being able to save lots of money.  But if you are in a position to build up an emergency fund, you need to do so.  We have been experiencing an extended period of relative economic stability, but it will not last.  In fact, the time for getting prepared for the next great economic downturn is rapidly running out, and most Americans are not ready for it at all.

The following are 14 signs that most Americans are flat broke and totally unprepared for the coming economic crisis: Continue reading »

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Feb 23

Record Low Baltic Dry Casualties Emerge: Third Dry-Bulk Shipper Files For Bankruptcy In Past 3 Weeks (ZeroHedge, Feb 23, 2015):

The unintended consequences of a money-printed, credit-fueled, mal-investment-boom in commodities (prices – as opposed to physical demand per se) and the downstream signals that sent to any and all industries are starting to bite. The Baltic Dry Index has plunged once again to new record lows and the collapse of the non-financialized ‘clean’ indicator of the imbalances between global trade demand and freight transport supply has the real-world effects are starting to be felt, as Reuters reports the third dry-bulk shipper this month has filed for bankruptcy… in what shippers call “the worst market conditions since the ’80s.”

Spot the credit-based mal-investment boom

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After 2 brief days of very marginal gains, The Baltic Dry Index dropped again…

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As Reuters reports,

A third dry cargo shipper has filed for bankruptcy this month following a collapse in freight rates to historic lows in what shippers call the worst market conditions since the 1980s. Continue reading »

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Feb 16

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China’s COSCO Dis-Assembles 8 Ships Amid Glut As Baltic Dry Hits Another Record Low (ZeroHedge, Feb 16, 2015):

You know things are bad in the ship-building business when… amid considerably larger than expected losses, China’s COSCO announced that it has dis-assembled 8 vessels in January alone (including 3 bulk carriers) and will be decommissioning and disposing of them as it awaits a “more conducive” environment. It appears that is not coming anytime soon, as The Baltic Dry Index just hit 522 – a new all-time low (down a stunning 53 of the last 55 days).

As COSCO explains in its HKSE Statement:

The board of directors (the “Board”) of the Company wishes to inform the shareholders of the Company (the “Shareholders”) and potential investors that the Group had disassembled eight vessels (collectively, the “Vessels”), including five container vessels (Hutuo He, Xinhui He, Zhaoqing He, Yangjiang He and Yongding He) and three bulk carriers (Peng Jie, Peng Nian and Peng Cai) from 1 January 2015 to 31 January 2015. Continue reading »

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Feb 15

–  World’s Largest Shipbuilder Reports $3 Billion Loss As Baltic Dry Index Hits New Record-er Low (ZeroHedge, Feb 13, 2015):

“Some Shipping Folks Are Sinking…” South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries, the world’s largest shipbuilder, has reported operating loss of KRW 3.25 trillion in 2014, or about USD $2.96 billion. The operating loss in 2014 is compared to a profit of KRW 802 billion in 2013. At 530, The Baltic Dry Index is at fresh record-erer lows…

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Feb 11

Baltic Dry Index Hits New Record Low (ZeroHedge, Feb 11, 2015): 

“It’s like a tax-cut for the world’s freight shippers…” oh wait…

New Record Low at 553…

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Consequences:

Not unequivocally good

 

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Feb 09

The World’s Best Known Global Shipping Index has Crashed To Its Lowest Level Ever (ZeroHedge, Feb 9, 2015):

Having fallen for 47 of the last 51 days, The Baltic Dry Index (tracking the cost of shipping dry bulk from iron ore to grains) has been collapsing in a well-documented manner by Zero Hedge (though not the mainstream media). With Cramer having told investors of its importance previously, it will be hard to ignore the fact that, as of this morning, the index of global shipping costs has never (ever) been lower at 554. We leave it to readers to decide what they think this means (but we already know what it means for shippers and ship-building companies).

Bullish?

BDIY-Baltic-Dry-Index-Collapse

On the back of the total collapse in Chinese imports and exports, is this any surprise?

Charts: Bloomberg

Related info:

Chinese Imports Crash & Worst January Export Plunge Since 2009 Sends Trade Surplus To Record High

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Feb 07

The Baltic Dry Index Has Only Been Lower Than This 8 Days In 30 Years (ZeroHedge, Feb 6, 2015):

At 559, The Baltic Dry Index (having now dropped 46 of the last 50 days and 12 days in a row) is just 5 points above its all-time record low from 1986. In fact, the global freight index has only been lower for 8 days during the July/August period of 1986 in its 30 year history…

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We are sure this is nothing to worry about and merely “transitory.”

 

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Feb 05

Bulk Shipping Bankruptices Begin As Baltic Dry Collapse Continues (ZeroHedge, Feb 5, 2015):

With one of the world’s leading dry bulk shipping companies, Copenhagen-based D/S Norden, having made huge losses for the last 2 years and expected to report dramatic losses in 2014 also, it is hardly surprising that the smaller bulk shipping firms are struggling as The Baltic Dry Index collapses ever closer to record all-time lows. As Reuters reports, privately-owned shipping company Copenship has filed for bankruptcy in Copenhagen after losses in the dry bulk market, with the CEO exclaiming, “we have reached a point where there is not more to do.” We suspect, given the crash in shipping fees, that this is the first of many…

On Thursday the index stood at 564, close to the historic low level of 554 set in July 1986.

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As Reuters reports,

Privately-owned shipping company Copenship has filed for bankruptcy in Copenhagen after losses in the dry bulk market, its Chief Executive Michael Fenger told Reuters. Continue reading »

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Feb 05

Baltic Dry Down 90% Of Days Since Cramer “Stressed Its Importance”; Crashes To New 29-Year Low (ZeroHedge, Feb 4, 2015):

And the collapse just keeps going… since Thanksgiving, The Baltic Dry has fallen on 43 or the 47 days, down over 60% from the “China growth is back and all-is-well” hope-filled days of late October (when Jim Cramer “stressed the importance of watching the Baltic Dry Freight Index,” as his bullish thesis confirmation). At 569, The Baltic Dry is inching ever closer to what will be the lowest level ever (554 on 7/31/1986) for the global shipping cost indicator…

One or two more days like this and it will be the all-time low…

BDIY-Collapse Continue reading »

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Feb 02

Baltic Dry Plunges At Fastest Pace Since Lehman, Hits New 29 Year Low (ZeroHedge, Feb 2, 2015):

The Baltic Dry Index dropped another 3% today to 590 – its first time below 600 since 1986 and not far from the all-time record low of 554 in July 1986. Of course, the absolute level is shrugged off by the over-supply-ists and the ‘well fuel prices are down’-ists but the velocity of collapse (now over 60% in the last 3 months) suggests this far more than some ‘blip’ discrepancy between supply and demand – this is a structural convergence of massive mal-investment meets economic reality.

The Baltic Dry Index drops even more… new 29 year lows…

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The fastest 3-month plunge since Lehman…

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Over-supply… Continue reading »

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Jan 29

WTF Chart Of The Day: Baltic Dry Index Crashes To Lowest In 29 Years (ZeroHedge, Jan 29, 2015):

Quietly behind the scenes – and not at all reflective of a collapsing global economy (because that would break the narrative of over-supply and pent-up demand) – The Baltic Dry Index plunged over 5% today to 632… That is the lowest absolute level for the global shipping rates indicator since August 1986

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“Transitory”

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Dec 20

The Baltic Dry Index Has Never Crashed This Fast Post-Thanksgiving (ZeroHedge, Dec 19, 2014):

We are sure it’s nothing – since stock markets in China and The US are soaring – but deep, deep down in the heart of the real economies, there is a problem. The Baltic Dry Index has fallen for 21 straight days, tumbling around 40% since Thanksgiving Day.  

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This is the biggest collapse in the ‘trade’ indicator (which we should ignore unless it is rising) since records began 28 years ago… Continue reading »

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Jul 23

The Baltic Dry Index Collapses To 18-Month Lows; Worst July Since 1986 (ZeroHedge, July 22, 2014):

The bulls will ignore it, shrugging that it’s merely over-supply of ships that the resurgent world economy will quickly soak up as it ‘recovers’… However, World GDP growth expectations are collapsing, trade volumes are slowing, and the Baltic Dry Index has continued to slump to its lowest since the start of January 2013 (a holiday period). For some context, this is the lowest July level for the Baltic Dry since 1986… “noise”

There’s this…

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and then there’s this…

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Which is the worst July level for the global shipping index since 1986… Continue reading »

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Jun 13

The Baltic Dry Index Is Having Its Worst Year Ever (ZeroHedge, June 13, 2014):

At 906, the Baltic Dry Index slumped to 12-month lows showing absolutely no signs whatsoever of the Q2 renaissance in global growth that has been heralded by all the highly-paid meteoroconomists.

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In fact, thanks to increasing fears over China’s commodity financing ponzi scheme, this is the worst year for the Baltic Dry on record. Continue reading »

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May 14

–  Here’s Why The Baltic Dry Index Is Collapsing (In 1 Image) (ZeroHedge, May 14, 2014):

If ever there was a better indication of the mal-investment boom created by an interfering Fed, this is it. As demand for shipping collapses on real slowing in the global economy – markets have “told” shipbuilders to “build it and they will come”here is a ship-shipping ship, shipping shipping ships…

Here's Why The Baltic Dry Index Is Collapsing

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Apr 15

Baltic Dry Drops For 15th Day To Lowest In 9 Months (Back Below $1000) (ZeroHedge, April 14, 2014):

And still the mainstream media’s discussion of the collapse in the Baltic Dry shipping index is entirely absent. As we have been pointing out for weeks now, something extreme is occurring in the cost of shipping dry bulk around the world. 2014 is now witnessing the biggest drop in price (a typical seasonal pattern) to start the year since records began. Today’s drop to $989 (the first time below $1000 since June 2013) is the 15th drop in a row and it’s not just this index that is fading: Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax rates are all falling. As we noted previously, the shipbuilding industry is already feeling the pain.

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Apr 12

The Baltic Dry is down 14 days in a row at $1002 – its lowest in 8 months (and worst start to a year on record)

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Shipbuilding Orders Evaporate As Baltic Dry Collapses (Zerohedge, April 11, 2014):

The silence is deafening still about the ongoing collapse in the Baltic Dry Index among mainstream media types (as it just might challenge the hope/hype that growth is coming back). At the dismal level of 1002, BDIY is at 8-month lows and has fallen 14 days in a row… but now it is having a real world impact. As Sea News reports, Korean shipping companies are failing to place orders for large vessels and anxiety over the future is forcing some local companies to dispose of their assets despite the relatively low shipbuilding costs as of late. Continue reading »

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Apr 09

Prepare for the greatest financial/economic collapse in (known) world history.


Baltic Dry Collapses To Worst Start To A Year On Record (ZeroHedge, April 9, 2014):

If you listen very carefully, you will still hear absolutely nothing from any talking-heads of the utter collapse that the last few weeks have witnessed in the Baltic Dry shipping index. The Baltic Dry has dropped 12 days in a row and plunged back to $1061 – its lowest since August 2013. This is the worst start to a year on record… must be the weather.

The Baltic Dry has dropped 12 days in a row and is now back to its lowest levels since August 2013… and almost post-crisis lows…

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Which is the worst start to a year since records began 30 years ago…

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The last time we saw a year start like this was 2012 which saw massive concerted co-ordinated central bank easing in Q3 to save us all… it seems that is not coming anytime soon this time…

Data: Bloomberg

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Apr 05

Baltic Dry Drops 9th Day In A Row; Worst Q1 In Over 10 Years (Zerohedge, April 5, 2014):

For a few weeks there, as the Baltic Dry Index rose, talking-heads were ignominous in their praise of the shipping index as a leading indicator of an awesome future ahead for the world economy. The last 9 days have smashed that ‘hope’ to smithereens (and yet the talking-heads have gone awkwardly silent, having moved on to some other bias-confirming meme). The Baltic Dry is down 25% in the last 2 weeks, back near post-crisis lows, and has just suffered the worst start to a year in over a decade. But apart from that, seems global trade is all-good and about to take off any minute now…

The worst start to a year in over a decade… Continue reading »

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