Infinite Unknown

- Is Ron Paul Taleb’s New Black Swan? (ZeroHedge, Mar 13, 2012):

While he does have some new philosophy (at X% off MSRP of course, coming to a Kindle near you) to preach, Nassim Taleb’s re-emergence from the darkness of the media spotlight starts with a bang: “I realized that something wrong is going on, and only one candidate ‘Ron Paul’ seems to have grasped the issues and is offering the right remedies“. He was given quite a lengthy period to proselytize as he outlines the Big Four problems he sees with the USA (and for that matter the world): Deficits (metastatic governments), The Fed, Militarism, and non-Bailouts (what is fragile should break early). As Ron Paul notes, “It’s an illusion that the USD can bailout the world”, Taleb makes many interesting, though a little murmur-some for our liking, points like “you don’t gamble with hyperinflation” and his comparison between the US and the Soviet Union will surely raise some headlines as he rants of the growing divide between public and private employees standards of living, our “need to do something drastic about it” and on Obama/Government and deficit reduction that “the whole thing is rotten“.

Tags: Bailout, Barack Obama, Black Swan, Dollar, Economy, Global News, Government, Nassim Taleb, Obama administration, Politics, Ron Paul, U.S.

- Is The ECB Masking Accelerating Deposit Flight In Italy And Spain? (ZeroHedge, Mar 12, 2012)

- Frontrunning: March 12 (ZeroHedge, Mar 12, 2012):

• Greek Bailout Payment Set to Be Approved by Euro Ministers After Debt Deal (Bloomberg)
• China Trade Deficit Spurs Concern (WSJ)
• Sarkozy Makes Populist Push For Re-Election (FT)
• ECB Calls for Tougher Rules on Budgets (FT)
• As Fed Officials Prepare to Meet, They Await Clearer Economic Signals (NYT)
• PBOC Zhou: In Theory ‘Lots Of Room’ For Further RRR Cuts (WSJ)
• Latest Stress Tests Are Expected to Show Progress at Most Banks (NYT)
• Monti Eyes Labor Plan Amid Jobless Youth, Trapped Firemen (Bloomberg)

Tags: Bailout, Banking, Bonds, China, Debt, ECB, Economy, EU, Europe, France, Global News, Government, Greece, Italy, Mario Monti, Nicolas Sarkozy, Politics, Spain

- Oops: ECB Says Greek PSI Participation May Fall Short, As Troika Expects Third Greek Bailout (ZeroHedge, Mar 4, 2012):

Following up on Peter’s summary of the if-then conditional analyses to be conducted concurrently by various classes of Greek bondholders ahead of Thursday’s PSI deadline (even as Bingham is rapidly organizing a Greek ad hoc ‘holdout’ committee to stop the PSI), here is some news that may obviate pretty much everything, and goes back to our warning from January, namely that despite all the sturm und drang, media fanfare, and threats from former Goldman-cum-JPM bankers, the hedge funds will ‘just say no’ and courtesy of basis packages (yes, the fact that Greek CDS soared to a record 76 pts upfront on Friday indicates more buyers than sellers) hold out for par recoveries in court: they would be idiots (or have a gun at their head) not to do so. To wit from Bloomberg: “Greece may fail to garner enough investors to participate in a voluntary writedown of its debt, Der Spiegel magazine reported, citing unnamed officials at the European Central Bank. A second Greek bailout is partly tied to investors’ agreeing to the writedown by a March 8 deadline.” Remember that Germany has made it very, very, very explicit that if the PSI fails, the bailout is off… just as they have planned from the get go.

We will post the Spiegel article asap. And while we wait, here is something else very special from Spiegel:

Troika expects third rescue package for Greece

The billions from the second bailout did not even have arrived in Greece, since international inspectors already have a third payment required. According to SPIEGEL information is the so-called Troika believes that another 50 billion euros would be needed

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Tags: Bailout, ECB, Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Greece, Politics

- Behold The Greek Debt Slavery “To Do” Checklist Permitting It To Bail Out Europe’s Insolvent Banks (ZeroHedge, Feb. 23, 2012)

Tags: Bailout, Banking, Bonds, Debt, Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Government, Greece, Politics, Society

- Scandal: Greece To Receive “Negative” Cash From “Second Bailout” As It Funds Insolvent European Banks (ZeroHedge, Feb. 22, 2012):

Earlier today, we learned the first stunner of the Greek bailout package, which courtesy of some convoluted transmission mechanisms would result in some, potentially quite many, Greek workers actually paying to retain their jobs: i.e., negative salaries. Now, having looked at the Eurogroup’s statement on the Greek bailout, we find another very creative use of “negative” numbers. And by creative we mean absolutely shocking and scandalous. First, as a reminder, even before the current bailout mechanism was in place, Greece barely saw 20% of any actual funding, with the bulk of the money going to European and Greek banks (of which the former ultimately also ended up funding the ECB and thus European banks). Furthermore, we already know that as part of the latest set of conditions of the second Greek bailout, an ‘Escrow Account” would be established: this is simply a means for Greek creditors to have a senior claims over any “bailout” cash that is actually disbursed for things such as, you know, a Greek bailout, where the money actually trickles down where it is most needed – the Greek citizens. Here is where it just got surreal. It turns out that not only will Greece not see a single penny from the Second Greek bailout, whose entire Use of Proceeds will be limited to funding debt interest and maturity payments, but the country will actually have to fund said escrow! You read that right: the Greek bailout #2 is nothing but a Greek-funded bailout of Europe’s insolvent banks... and the Greek constitution is about to be changed to reflect this!

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Tags: Bailout, Banking, ECB, Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Government, Greece, Politics, Society, U.S.

For your information.

YouTube Added: 14.02.2012

Tags: Bailout, Banking, Barack Obama, Economy, Global News, Government, Obama administration, Politics, U.S.

- Shame on Europe for betraying Greece (Guardian, Feb. 14, 2012):

The behaviour of the EU states towards Greece is inexplicable in the terms in which the EU defines itself. It is, first and foremost, a failure of solidarity.

The “austerity package”, as the newspapers like to call it, seeks to impose on Greece terms that no people can accept. Even now the schools are running out of books. There were 40% cuts in the public health budget in 2010 – I can’t find the present figure. Greece’s EU “partners” are demanding a 32% cut in the minimum wage for those under 25, a 22% cut for the over 25s. Already unemployment for 15-24-year-olds is 48% – it will have risen considerably since then. Overall unemployment has increased to over 20%. The sacking of public sector workers will add to it. The recession predicted to follow the imposition of the package will cause unbearable levels of unemployment at every level.

In addition the “package” demands cuts to pensions and public service pay, wholesale privatisation of state assets – a fire-sale, since the global market is close to rock bottom – and cuts to public services including health, social welfare and education. The whole to be supervised by people other than the Greeks. An entire disciplinary and punishment system.

When we casually use a term like “bailout”, it is important to remember that it is not people who are being bailed out, or at least not the Greek people. The bailout will not save a single Greek life. The opposite is the case. What is being “bailed out” is the global financial system, including the banks, hedge funds and pension funds of the other EU member states, and it is the Greek people who are being ordered to pay – in money, time, physical pain, hopelessness and missed educational opportunities. The relatively neutral, even stoic, term “austerity”, is a gross insult to the Greek people. This is not austerity; at best it is callousness.

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Tags: Bailout, Banking, Bonds, Debt, Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Government, Greece, Politics, Society

- Greece spiralling into catastrophic depression (Independent, Feb. 15, 2012):

Greece is expecting to agree the terms of European leaders for a rescue package this evening as the country seeks to avoid a default on its international debts. But Greeks fear that the cuts, imposed on them in return for a €130bn bailout, is sending the country spiralling into a catastrophic depression.

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Tags: Bailout, Banking, Bonds, Debt, Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Government, Greece, Politics, Society

- Greece won’t see a cent of the great bail-out (Telegraph, Feb.13, 2012):

Over the weekend, the Greek parliament voted to accept Europe’s latest demands for spending cuts and tax rises and other reforms and retrenchments. The aim was to make it marginally less implausible that Greece will pay back the hundreds of billions of euros that its neighbours are lending it. The alternative, we were told, was that it would become “ground zero” for a new financial meltdown, with its exit from the euro leading to social chaos within the country and economic chaos outside.

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Tags: Bailout, Banking, Bonds, Debt, Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Government, Greece, Politics, Society

- The Cost Of The Combined Greek Bailout Just Rose To €320 Billion In Secured Debt, Or 136% Of Greek GDP (ZeroHedge, Feb. 2, 2012):

Some of our German readers may be laboring under the impression that following the €110 billion first Greek bailout agreed upon and executed in May 2010, the second Greek bailout would cost a “mere” €130 billion. Alas we have news for you – as of this morning, the formal cost of rescuing Greece for the adjusted adjusted adjusted second time has just risen to €145 billion, €175 billion, a whopping €210 billion, bringing the total explicit cost of all Greek bailout funds to date (and many more in store) to €320 billion. Which incidentally is a little more than Greek GDP (which however is declining rapidly) at 310 billion, only in dollars. So as of today, merely the ratio of the Greek DIP loan (Debtor In Possession, because Greece is after all broke) has reached a whopping ratio of 136% Debt to GDP. This excludes any standing debt which is for all intents and purposes worthless. This is secured debt, which means that if every dollar in assets generating one dollar in GDP were to be liquidated and Greece sold off entirely in part or whole to Goldman Sachs et al, there would still be a 36% shortfall to the Troika, EFSF, ECB and whoever else funds the DIP loan (i.e., European and US taxpayers)! Another way of putting this disturbing fact is that global bankers now have a priming lien on 136% of Greek GDP - the entire country and then some now officially belongs to the world banking syndicate. Consider that when evaluating Greek promises of reducing total debt to GDP to 120% in 2020, as it would mean wiping all existing “pre-petition debt” and paying off some of the DIP. Also keep in mind that Greece has roughly €240 billion in existing pre-petition debt, of which much will remain untouched as it is not held in Private hands (this is the debt which will see a major “haircut” – or not: all depends on the holdout lawsuits, the local vs non-local bonds and various other nuances discussed here). If you said this is beyond idiotic, you are right. It is not the impairment on the Greek “pre-petition’ debt that the market should be worried about – that clearly is 100% wiped out. It is how much the Troika DIP will have to charge off when the Greek 363 asset sale finally comes. This is also what Angela Merkel will say tomorrow when Greece shows up on its doorstep with the latest “revised” agreement from its parliament to take Europe’s money ahead of the March 20 D-Day. Because finally, after months (and to think we did the math for Die Frau back in July) Germany has done the math, and has reached the conclusion that letting Greece go is now the cheaper option.

So how do we get to the €210 billion number? Well, there is the €130 billion already “agreed” upon. Continue reading »

Tags: Bailout, Debt, ECB, Economy, EFSF, EU, Europe, Germany, Global News, Government, Greece, Politics