Infinite Unknown

- Cyprus bailout: Deal reached in Eurogroup talks (BBC News, March 25, 2013):

Eurozone finance ministers have agreed a deal on a bailout for Cyprus to prevent its banking system collapsing, officials say.

Reports suggest the deal will include a levy on deposits of more than 100,000 euros in Cyprus’ two biggest banks.

The levy on accounts in Laiki Bank – the country’s second-biggest – could be as high as 40%, correspondents say.

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Tags: Bailout, Banking, Collapse, Cyprus, Economy, EU, Europe, Germany, Global News, Government, Politics

- Rampapalooza As Cyprus-Troika Reach Deal (Updates) (ZeroHedge, March 24, 2013):

UPDATE: It appears the ‘deal’ to default/restructure the banks has been designed to bypass the need for parliamentary votes, since it is theoretically not a tax.

While we have little color on what kind of carnage the President of Cyprus had to accept to his fellow countrymen, the news is that :

• *CYPRUS, TROIKA REACH AGREEMENT IN PRINCIPLE, EU OFFICIAL SAYS
• *DEAL MADE AT DINNER WITH DRAGHI, LAGARDE, VAN ROMPUY, BARROSO

The terms, unsurprisingly what zee Germans wanted, are:

i) Laiki to be wound down;

ii) Bank of Cyprus to survive but with deposit haircuts, and

iii) deal would see secured deposits in Laiki moved to Bank of Cyprus.

In other words, a deal far worse then the original on proposed by the Eurogroup last week – when the banks still existed. The key appears to be the ‘saving’ of the insured depositors (crucial to avoid a pan-European bank run) and the crushing of the ‘whale’ depositors.

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Tags: Bailout, Christine Lagarde, Cyprus, ECB, Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Government, Herman Van Rompuy, IMF, Jose Manuel Barroso, Mario Draghi, Politics Edit

- Cyprus Bailout Needs Rise By €2 Billion As Conditions Deteriorate Rapidly (ZeroHedge, March 24, 2013):

A week of closed banks, depositor angst, and economic malaise is creating an increasingly vicious circle for Cyprus (and implicitly the European Union). As Die Welt notes, because the economic data of the tiny ‘irrelevant’ island could be considerably worse than previously thought (or forecast by Troika) thanks to the distortions created this week by bank closings, several people around the Troika said the exact amount of the bailout remains uncertain and could amount to EUR2bn more than expected. With the Troika capping their handout at EUR10bn of the current EUR17bn needed (and the deposit levy reportedly filling EUR6bn of that EUR7bn hole), the need for a bigger bailout – which seems increasingly likely – will fall on Cyprus banks’ depositors (or taxpayers) leading to a hard-to-beat downward spiral. Simply put, the more deposits are pulled, the more deposits need to be confiscated; and with retailer stocks running low (“will last another 2-3 days”) and cash-on-delivery demanded, the real economy will “have a problem if this is not resolved by next week.”

Via The Guardian,

Retailers, facing cash-on-delivery demands from suppliers, warned stocks were running low. “At the moment, supplies will last another two or three days,” said Adamos Hadijadamou, head of Cyprus’s Association of Supermarkets. “We’ll have a problem if this is not resolved by next week.”

Via Die Welt (and Google Translate),

Cyprus needs a lot more money than expected

A few hours before the emergency meeting of the situation seems to capture from bankruptcy Cyprus to deteriorate: From Troika says that money could not exceed the estimated range.

Cyprus needs for information of the “world” more money to bail out its banks and the stabilization of its national budget. Not initially agreed 17 billion euros were enough states in the field of negotiations. The exact amount is not certain. Several people around the troika said the “world” that the increased demand would amount to around two billion euros.

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Tags: Bailout, Cyprus, ECB, Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Government, IMF, Politics

- Former Cyprus Central Bank Head And Senior Fed Economist: “The European Project Is Crashing To Earth” (ZeroHedge, March 22, 2013):

Back in August 2011, one of the most prescient European (ex) central bankers, Cyprus’ very own Athanasios Orphanides was optimistic, but with a caveat: “I am optimistic that with the right actions and effort by all we will pull through this,” Orphanides told reporters after a meeting with Finance Minister Kikis Kazamias. They were Orphanides’ first public comments since warning authorities in a July 18, 2011 letter that Cyprus ran the risk of requiring an EU bailout unless urgent action was taken to shore up its finances.”

Two years later, following endless dithering and pretense that just because the ECB has stabilized the markets, all is well, and “action was being taken” when none was (because in the New Normal the lack of market collapse is somehow supposed to represent structural changes are taking place, which never actually happen), Cyprus is beyond the bailout stage – it is now quite literally on the verge of total collapse. This is also why Orphanides, who recently (and perhaps prudently) quit as Central Banker of Cyprus following a clash with the new communist government (and was replaced by a guy named Panicos), no longer is optimistic. “The European project is crashing to earth,” Athanasios Orphanides told the Financial Times in an interview. “This is a fundamental change in the dynamics of Europe towards disintegration and I don’t see how this can be reversed.”

It can’t. Which is what we have been saying all along. But it apparently takes a former Federal Reserve senior economist to say the perfectly obvious, and for reality to finally hit front and center.

More from the FT’s interview with Orphanides:

This week’s events had made “a mockery” of EU treaties, he added. “It suggests that in Europe not all people are equal under the law.”

“We have seen other eurozone countries, the Netherlands, for instance, put national interests ahead of the European interest by trying to bring down the economic model of countries such as Cyprus or Luxembourg.”

Continue reading »

Tags: Anthanasios Orphanides, Bailout, ECB, Economy, EU, Europe, Food, Global News, Government, IMF, Politics

- Troika Hikes Cyprus Bailout Demands, Says “Conditions Worsened” (ZeroHedge, March 22, 2013):

Just when you thought you knew the rules, the Troika has changed them… (via MNI)

• TROIKA SAID CONDITIONS WORSENED, WANTS BILL TO REFLECT
• TROIKA HIKED CYPRUS CONTRIBUTION TO E6.7 BN VS E5.8 BN:
  SOURCE

Moar Bigger Haircuts for the rich please – and following Schaeuble’s veiled threat (leave – we can handle it)…

• *SCHAEUBLE: MARKET SEES EURO-ZONE BETTER PREPARED FOR TURBULENCE

Tags: Bailout, Banking, Bonds, Collapse, Cyprus, Debt, ECB, Economy, Europe, Global News, Government, IMF, Society

- National planning Cyprus-style solution for New Zealand (Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand, March 19, 2013):

The National Government is pushing a Cyprus-style solution to bank failure in New Zealand which will see small depositors lose some of their savings to fund big bank bailouts, the Green Party said today.

Open Bank Resolution (OBR) is Finance Minister Bill English’s favoured option dealing with a major bank failure. If a bank fails under OBR, all depositors will have their savings reduced overnight to fund the bank’s bail out.

“Bill English is proposing a Cyprus-style solution for managing bank failure here in New Zealand – a solution that will see small depositors lose some of their savings to fund big bank bailouts,” said Green Party Co-leader Dr Russel Norman.

“If a bank fails under National’s plan, all depositors will have their savings reduced overnight to fund the bank’s bail out.”

“The Reserve Bank is in the final stages of implementing a system of managing bank failure called Open Bank Resolution. The scheme will put all bank depositors on the hook for bailing out their bank.

“Depositors will overnight have their savings shaved by the amount needed to keep the bank afloat.

Continue reading »

Tags: Bailout, Cyprus, Economy, Global News, Government, New Zealand, Politics, Society

- New Zealand Government Now Planning a Cyprus-Style Confiscation to Fund Bank Bail Out (IntelliHub, march 20, 2013):

Many people around the world were relieved to learn yesterday that a proposed measure to fund a bailout in Cyprus was not approved by the local government.

The proposed plan would tax every single person in the country with a bank account, forcing them to fund a bank bailout that shouldnt even be happening in the first place.

However, fears that other governments may take similar measures have now been proven to be well founded, as the New Zealand government is considering a similar approach.

According to Scoop:

“The National Government are pushing a Cyprus-style solution to bank failure in New Zealand which will see small depositors lose some of their savings to fund big bank bailouts, the Green Party said today.  Open Bank Resolution (OBR) is Finance Minister Bill English’s favoured option dealing with a major bank failure. If a bank fails under OBR, all depositors will have their savings reduced overnight to fund the bank’s bail out.”

Continue reading »

Tags: Bailout, Cyprus, Economy, Global News, Government, New Zealand, Politics, Society

- Cyprus Parliament Rejects European Bailout Proposal: Calls Germany’s Bluff (ZeroHedge, March 19, 2013):

Just as we predicted yesterday, the Cyprus bailout vote has not passed parliament in a move that was merely there to force Germany’s bluff.

• CYPRUS BANK LEVY BILL DEFEATED WITH 36 VOTES AGAINST
• CYPRUS BANK LEVY BILL DEFEATED WITH 19 ABSTENTIONS
• CYPRUS PARLIAMENT VOTED IN SHOW OF HANDS IN NICOSIA
• ANASTASIADES FAILS TO SECURE VOTES FOR DEPOSIT LOSS BILL

What happens now, nobody knows. Prepare for a litany of very angry headlines out of the inner sanctum of Europe’s despotic chambers. Hopefully Pisani can explain it all.

Tags: Bailout, Banking, Cyprus, Economy, EU, Europe, Germany, Global News, Government, Politics

- Europe’s Final Gambit: 20%-30% Haircut For Oligarchs To Force A Russian Bailout (ZeroHedge, March 19, 2013):

It now seems sure that the ongoing discussion in Cyprus’ government will see a “no” vote as the WSJ is reporting a rather stunning gamble by the Cypriots (and by Cypriots we mean European leaders) to force the Russians to bear the brunt of the cost of the bailout. The non-resigned Cypriot FinMin is heading to Russia to propose a deal that includes imposing a 20% to 30% levy on Russian-held deposits in Cypriot banks, which could cost them billions of euros. In exchange, Russia will be given equity in Cyprus’s future national gas company and some additional strategic benefits in the sector, while Russian investors would be given control of the board of directors at Cyprus’s banks. The apparent quid pro quo in this deal does nothing to hide the fact that private property was stolen and while pointing fingers just at the Russians may play well for PR purposes, it is described as “a long shot” as the Kremlin notes, “it’s practically impossible to talk without knowing details.”

Via WSJ,

…

The official said that Michalis Sarris, who is being accompanied by a delegation of businessmen, is going to propose a deal that includes imposing a 20% to 30% levy on Russian-held deposits in Cypriot banks, which could cost them billions of euros. In exchange, Russia will be given equity in Cyprus’s future national gas company and some additional strategic benefits in the sector, while Russian investors would be given control of the board of directors at Cyprus’s banks.

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Tags: Bailout, Banking, Cyprus, Economy, EU, Europe, Global News, Government, Politics, Russia, Society

- UK Bankruptcy Tzar On Verge Of Bankruptcy (ZeroHedge, March 13, 2013):

Despite around $135 million in bailouts, the UK government’s Insolvency Service disputes its own insolvency. The FT reports that one British MP summed it up – “it is fair to say that if this was a company it would be in deep trouble.” The group, which polices bankrupt companies, liquidates failed businesses and disqualifies unfit directors, would be bankrupt were it not for the government’s cash injection. Dependent on fees and recoveries from bankrupt companies, the agency over-estimated its ability to recover assets from collapsed businesses. It dismisses the insolvency claims against itself however, noting the service is “living within its means” and expects to be deficit-free by 2015 (though it is unclear how unless they expect recoveries to rise dramatically or bankruptcies to increase significantly) as it is forced to provide services even when there is no prospect of recovering fees from bankrupt people or companies. Their rate of prosecution has dropped from 40% to 21% and even the creditor community has lost faith arguing that the agency’s model was “unreliable in the current economic climate” and required urgent reform.

Via The FT,

The UK government’s Insolvency Service is all but insolvent.

Experts suggest the group, which polices bankrupt companies, liquidates failed businesses and disqualifies unfit directors, would be broke had it not received an emergency injection of cash from the government. Continue reading »

Tags: Bailout, Bankruptcy, Economy, Global News, Government, Politics, U.K.