Jul 26

Jul 25, 2016

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Jul 26

H/t reader squodgy:

“Lies, Damned Lies, Adjusted Lies and DISINFORMATION.

Covering up the reality to hide incompetence. We all know the reality, whether it is Caterpillar, Mercedes, Scania or Boeing. The market is in the doldrums and there is little or no chance of recovery, but the bullshitters who lied about recovery, are now modifying their original predictions to make them more akin to the truth.”


Global Trade Meets Ugly Reality:

Years of painfully slow growth slashed in one fell swoop!

Something funny happened when I didn’t look: the global trade numbers were adjusted down. By a lot. The post-Financial Crisis recovery in trade is suddenly a heck of a lot less vibrant than it looked. And it has completely stalled out over the past two years.

The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a division of the Ministry of Economic Affairs, just released its Merchandise World Trade Monitor for May. It was, in its own right, not very uplifting.

World trade volume shrank 0.4% in May, after shrinking 0.3% in April. The index fell to 133.0, the lowest level since May 2015. It’s back where it had first been in September 2014.

But wait…. Last time we wrote about the World Trade Monitor (WTM) was July a year ago. We’ve kept our eyes on it because it is a valuable and unique tool in trying to gauge global trade. So this time, something jarred us, and we went back to look at the data from a year ago: the entire data series going back to Adam and Eve has been adjusted downward, with the most significant adjustments kicking in after the Financial Crisis. Continue reading »

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Jul 26

Caterpiller Cuts Guidance On “Subdued Global Growth”, Blames Brexit And “Turkey Turmoil”

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Jul 26

Italy Races To Arrange €5 Billion Bailout For Monte Paschi Before Friday’s Stress Test:

Italy is scrambling to secure a privately-backed bailout of Monte dei Paschi di Siena, the most exposed of the country’s troubled lenders, including a plan to raise €5bn of fresh capital so as to avert nationalisation, the FT reports. The bank needs to obtain some €5 bilion in capital ahead of Friday’s stress test, or else a dire “contagion” scenario could unfold that could impair not only all Italian banks, but promptly spread first to France and then to Germany…

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Jul 26

RBS Warns Clients May Face Negative Interest Rates:

In another reminder that monetary unorthodoxy in the face of NIRP is coming to a savings account near you, overnight the RBS banking group warned 1.3 million customers they could be charged negative interest rates if the Bank of England cuts base rates below zero. As seen in the letter posted below, the bank warned that: “Global interest rates remain at very low levels and in some markets are currently negative. Dependent on future market conditions, this could result in us charging on credit balances.”

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Jul 25

Caterpillar Retail Sales Decline For 43 Consecutive Months:

There was a time when Caterpillar was considered a key bellwether for trends in global heavy industries, and thus a proxy for the manufacturing sector. However, over the past 3 years that has not been the case for one simple reason: if one looks only at trends revealed by CAT’s retail sales the global economy has been mired not in a recession but an unprecedented depression, one which has now lasted some 43 months. That’s how long CAT has gone without a single positive month in global retail sales, well over double the duration of the acute collapse in demand following the financial crisis.

CAT LT sales

Since there is little we can add to this story that we haven’t sasid for the past 42 months in our monthly monitoring of demand for CAT products, we will just lay out the breakdown: Continue reading »

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Jul 25

Greece-IMF

IMF’s ‘Competitiveness Drive’ Leaves 127,000 Greeks Earnings Under $110 Per Month:

The dramatic shrinkage of Greek earnings due to recession, the explosion of unemployment and the dominance of flexible forms of employment is exposed in a new document submitted by an experts’ committee to Greek Labor Ministry. As KeepTalkingGreece reports, the document featured details wage inequality during the period 2010-2015 and exposes a new social class of workers: the Neo-Poor Greeks earning wages much less than the unemployment allowance of 360 euro. Continue reading »

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Jul 25

“Game Over” – Nintendo Crashes Most Since 1990 After Admitting “Limited Earnings Impact” From Pokemon Go

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Jul 25

H/t reader squodgy:

“I think not. The parrots were only doing as they were told. I still believe the populace were herded into Brexit under a false ‘identity/immigration’ banner.
For years now, because the core of the Rothschild dynasty is resident in England, logically, they would want it to be the base for the future of their next economic structure.
This article kind of sets off down that road, but also points to israel becoming more entrenched as a major player than certain forecasts predict.”

I believe London, as well as Frankfurt (former Rothschild residence), will be destroyed.


London vs. Wall Street: The Other Side Of The Brexit

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Jul 25

Portugal-flag

First Italy, Now Portuguese Banks “Unexpectedly” Need A Taxpayer Bailout:

Portuguese banks, already undercapitalised and loaded with bad debt, are bracing for heavy losses from Lisbon’s so far unsuccessful attempts to sell Novo Banco, the lender salvaged from the collapse of Banco Espírito Santo.

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Jul 25

It’s Official: Verizon To Acquire Yahoo Core Assets For $4.8 Billion:

Almost a decade after Microsoft made an unsolicited bid to acquire Yahoo for $50 billion, moments ago Verizon confirmed recent rumors that it would acquire Yahoo operating business for approximately $4.83 billion in cash, far below initial estimates floated several months ago that the segment could sell for as much as $10 billion. So how much does Marissa Meyer collect for “creating value” at the company during her 5 year tenure? Somewhere around $300 million.

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Jul 24

Kmart workers believe all the stores are going to be imminently shut down

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Jul 23

H/t reader squodgy:

“The vultures gather….”


Look Who’s Frantically Demanding that Taxpayers Stop Italy’s Bank Meltdown:

It was a perfect gift to a desperate market. All that was needed was a gentle hint that Italy’s troubled banks and their bondholders might not be hung out to dry. A “public backstop” for Italy’s weakest lenders would be a “very useful” measure in these “exceptional times,” ECB President Mario Draghi said.

Most Italian and European bank stocks surged.

The ECB is the second member of the institutional triad formerly known as the Troika to have called for a taxpayer funded bailout of Italy’s banking system. Earlier this month the IMF used its article IV consultation – an annual economic and financial health check – to warn of “global spillovers” from a full-blown Italian banking crisis, “given Italy’s systemic weight.” Continue reading »

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Jul 23

What One Million Recently Fired Chinese Coal And Steel Workers Are Doing Now:

Having followed China’s biggest risk with great interest for the past year,  which incidentally is not its $36 trillion in debt, nor its defaults, its zombie companies, its ponzi “wealth products”, its currency, its capital outflows, its crony capitalism and corruption, nor its gargantuan capital misallocation, but the threat of a social revolution as a result of a surge in unemployment as entire zombie industries fail, that has always been true biggest risk for Beijing (something the Politburo knows very well),  we found it less than surprising when last September a Chinese coal company announced it would fires 100,000.

That was just the tip of the iceberg for China’s insolvent commodity sector, which just happens to employs tens of millions of no longer needed workers. Continue reading »

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Jul 23

“Policymakers Have Been Calling A ‘Depression’ A ‘Recovery’ For Nearly A Decade”:

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider via Alhambra Investment Partners,

Some people have impeccable timing. Even if by accident, there are occasions when what they say or write comes out in almost perfect sequence. At the end of August 2014, UC Berkeley economist J. Bradford DeLong wrote an article for Project Syndicate that argued in favor of proper categorization. The lack of recovery was so drastic that the economist community and indeed the world at large needed to come to terms with what was actually taking place; and that was not anything like what was being described especially at that time.

To have such a Keynesian of prominence make such an indictment like that may seem somewhat surprising, as it has been they who have most objected to classifying this economy as anything but robust. Some of it is surely political, or at least loyalty to the good standing monetarist/Keynesians (neo-Keynesian, saltwater-ists, or whatever they call themselves these days) at the Federal Reserve, where no economist shall direct any disparaging comments toward the palace. But to DeLong, the issue had never been about recession at all: Continue reading »

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Jul 22

Crushing Debt Has Taken the Economy Hostage: “Going to Implode. It’s a Certainty”:

This article was written by Joshua Krause and originally published at The Daily Sheeple.

Editor’s Comment: Few things are more reassuring than certainty. And one certainty you can bet on is that this house of cards won’t last. How much farther can things be stretched thin? How much more can the world take? The looming implosion of the global economy is a question of when, not if.

There is a great deal of anxiety about when and how things will go down, and how the world will react. But no one can really doubt whether or not the system is sound… in fact, it is entirely certain that it isn’t. Too many have taken on way more than they can handle, and the future looks simply disastrous. Beware and be forewarned.

It Looks Like the Global Debt Bomb Is Ready to Blow

by Joshua Krause

In recent years we’ve seen global debts soar to heights never before seen in human history. Before the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008, public and private debts were already out of control, but when the governments of the world tried to keep the global economy together with all their might, they did so by going into debt, to the tune of over $200 trillion. And that’s just what the numbers looked like the last time anyone checked back in 2014. Who knows how much debt the world is in now. Continue reading »

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Jul 22

The Real Numbers Behind GE’s “Beat”: Organic Orders -16%; Power -27%; Equipment Orders -30%; Aviation -37%:

How did a company which saw an unprecedented 16% plunge in organic orders not only report a 65% surge in earnings, but smashed Wall Street expectations? Read on for the 1 minute explanation.

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Jul 21

The Global Financial System Is Here - Collapse

Could This Rally Be a Head-Fake?:

If there’s nothing supporting this rally but euphoric sentiment arising from orchestrated buying, any eruption of reality will reveal the rally as a head-fake.

Let’s say you wanted to engineer a stock market rally that triggered every technical “buy” signal and wiped out those who are short the market–what would you do? First, you’d engineer a new all-time high to signal “all clear for further advances.” Continue reading »

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Jul 21

Energy Giant Schlumberger Fires Another 8,000 As “Market Conditions Worsened” In Q2:

“As a result of the weakness in activity that will persist through 2016 as expected, we have made another significant adjustment to our cost and resource base, including the release of more than 16,000 employees during the first half of 2016 and a further streamlining of our overhead, infrastructure, and asset base.”

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Jul 21

Soros

George Soros Doubles Down: Accept 300k Refugees Costing $30Bn, Or Risk EU Collapse:

Seemingly doubling down on his comments in April (following what he called Europe’s “flawed asylum policy”), George Soros has expanded his demands from four to seven fundamental pillars on how to prevent the collapse of the European Union. In an article penned for Foreign Policy titled “This Is Europe’s Last Chance to Fix Its Refugee Policy,” Soros details his plan (over-riding the current “piecemeal approach”) for rescuing Europe before it is too late. Simply put, the billionaire says the EU must take in hundreds of thousands of refugees a year, spend at least 30 billion euros (a minor sum, since he believes it can all be financed by debt and taxes) or Europe faces an “existential threat.”

Soros begins ominously: The EU’s piecemeal solutions are coming apart. Only a surge of financial and political creativity can avoid a catastrophe. Continue reading »

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Jul 21

Arrested HSBC FX Trader Had Been Cleared In Bank’s Own Internal Probe

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Jul 21

Jul 17, 2016

Description:

On the economy crashing this year, investment banker and former Assistant Secretary of Housing, Catherine Austin Fitts says, “Could we turn into a bear market? I think given the commitment to equity markets and given the willingness to debase the currency, I think the chances of that are relatively small this year. Next year, depending on what happens in the election, the gloves are going to come off globally about what’s been going on in the U.S. Anything could happen. That’s the danger if you are an investment advisor or an investor. The swings here is we could be up 30%, or we could be down 50%. A black swan could happen, so if you are an investor, you need to be prepared for very, very wide swings both up and down in prices in the equity markets. Here’s the important thing to remember. . . . We now have $12 trillion sitting in negative interest rates. Where’s all that money going to go? It can’t sit there getting nothing. It will have to go into real estate. It’s going to have to go into equity. It’s going to have to go to precious metals because it can’t sit there getting no or negative yields forever. . . . The debt game is over.”

On gold and silver, Fitts says, “Interest rates coming down makes gold and silver more attractive. I think the number one thing driving precious metals is you’ve still got growth going on in Asia, and they are buyers. People are afraid, and they are looking at what is going on with the leadership, and they are getting scared. They want to hedge their bets, and gold and silver is where you go when you don’t trust the system.”

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Jul 21

Apple Watch Sales Tumble 55%:

Tim Cook’s first major, standalone product is a flop. According to the latest IDC data, sales of the Apple Watch plunged by 55%, from 3.6 million a year ago to just 1.6 million in Q2. 

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Jul 21

US To Seize $1 Billion In Embezzled Malaysian Assets Which Goldman Sachs Helped Buy:

Today we got the first official confirmation of just how vast the 1MDB money-laundering scheme was and that it stretched to the very top. What is now also confirmed, is that at the heart of the fundraising operation was none other than Goldman Sachs.

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Jul 20

IMF Called “Clowns” After Admitting They Fabricated Brexit Doom And Gloom:

“The IMF has serious credibility problems. It has been seriously wrong for years. I hope that one of the things that the new government does is push to have some credible people running this institution… rather than the clowns currently running it,” exclaimed UKIP MP Douglas Carswell, pointing out Lagarde’s legion of fools flip-flop that the British economy will grow faster than Germany and France in the next two years – only weeks after its doom-laden warnings about Brexit.

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Jul 20

S&P Downgrades Turkey To BB, Outlook Negative; Lira Tumbles To New All Time Low:

“Following the attempted coup on July 15, Turkey’s political landscape has fragmented further. We believe this will undermine Turkey’s investment environment, growth, and capital inflows into its externally leveraged economy. In the aftermath of the failed coup, we believe that the risks to Turkey’s ability to roll over its external debt have increased.”

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Jul 20

Federal Agents Went Undercover To Spy on Anti-Fracking Movement, Emails Reveal:

Source: The Intercept

When more than 300 protesters assembled in May at the Holiday Inn in Lakewood, Colorado — the venue chosen by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) for an auction of oil and gas leases on public lands — several of the demonstrators were in fact undercover agents sent by law enforcement to keep tabs on the demonstration, according to emails obtained by The Intercept.

The “Keep it in the Ground” movement, a broad effort to block the development of drilling projects, has rapidly gained traction over the last year, raising pressure on the Obama administration to curtail hydraulic fracturing, known as fracking, and coal mining on federal public lands. In response, government agencies and industry groups have sharply criticized the activists in public, while quietly moving to track their activities. Continue reading »

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Jul 20

Art Sales Tumble: Christie’s Reports 38% Plunge In First Half Sales:

There is yet another confirmation that the slowdown in luxury spending continues, nowhere more so than in the world of “luxury” art. As the WSJ reports, Christie said it sold $3 billion in art during the first half of the year, down a third from the same period last year. Contemporary art, long the engine of Christie’s market dominance, was hardest hit, its $788 million in auction sales down 45% from a year earlier. Sotheby’s didn’t fare better: the New York-based auction house said first half sales dropped a quarter from the year before

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Jul 20

rome

Decline of Empire: Parallels Between the U.S. and Rome, Part I:

By Doug Casey of Casey Research.

As some of you know, I’m an aficionado of ancient history. I thought it might be worthwhile to discuss what happened to Rome and based on that, what’s likely to happen to the U.S. Spoiler alert: There are some similarities between the U.S. and Rome.

But before continuing, please seat yourself comfortably. This article will necessarily cover exactly those things you’re never supposed to talk about—religion and politics—and do what you’re never supposed to do, namely, bad-mouth the military.

Continue reading »

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Jul 20

Deutsche Bank-2

Deutsche Bank to close almost 200 branches:

The closures are set to take place over the next few months , with 188 of Deutsche Bank’s 723 branches nationwide due to close their doors.

On Sunday, Deutsche Bank published a list of the affected branches.

North Rhine-Westphalia is to be hit hardest, with 51 branches in Germany’s most populous state listed for the chopping board. In Bavaria eleven will close, eight of which are in Munich. Continue reading »

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