Within 40 years, given current demographic trends, the white population in France and the rest of old Europe will recede, creating a Muslim majority, a French researcher says.
Charles Gave, an economist, fund manager and political commentator, published his conclusions this month on the webpage of his think tank, Institute des Libertes. He writes of the “disappearance of the European populations” as native populations shrink and Muslims continue to exhibit a robust fertility rate.
Mr. Gave, president of Gavekal Research, acknowledges that his decidedly unpolitically correct view may bring him scorn and possibly censorship. The political left generally protects Islam from criticism. In the U.S., President Obama consistently defended Islam and mocked Christians for their criticism.
The paper, titled “The White Plague,” is dangerous, Mr. Gave said, “for my personal respectability and my chance to be heard in our beautiful democracy.”
The financier draws his conclusion from demographics. He assesses France’s white, or native, birthrate at 1.4 children per woman, compared with a Muslim rate of 3.4 to 4 children. France’s population today is 67 million. Unlike the U.S., France does not conduct a census on ethnic origin, but based on outside polling, some researchers, including Mr. Gave, believe the French population is already 10 percent Muslim, with 6.7 million people.
France’s official birthrate is 1.9 per woman, but Mr. Gave’s calculations put the native rate at 1.4. Overall, the European birthrate is a low 1.6 per woman.
Mr. Gave extrapolates those numbers, a declining white population and a growing Muslim population, and concludes that France will have a Muslim majority by 2057.
“And so, within 40 years at the latest, it is almost certain that the majority of the population will be Muslim in Austria, Germany, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Holland,” he writes. “Again, these are not predictions but calculations, and I do not even call for new immigrants.”
* * *