Jun 21

Greek GDP vs forecasts_0

Greek GDP: The Shocking Reality Vs IMF Forecasts; And Who Is To Blame For The Greek Implosion (ZeroHedge, June 21, 2015):

With a Greek default, shortly followed by a Grexit, a collapse of the “irreversible union” (but… but… “political capital“), and ultimately the end of the latest European monetary union experiment (the latest in a long and illustrious series of prior failures) now seemingly imminent, the blame game has begun. As the NYT noted overnight “the recriminations that would then fly would be so bitter that they would inflict a second round of damage.”

But who is really to blame?

Simple: anyone and everyone who willingly and voluntarily was complicit with the great “can kicking” bailout fiction of the past 5 years, and decided to stick their head in the sand when during the first bailout of Greece, followed promptly by the second bailout (and default to private creditors) when despite our (among many others) outcries that these piecemeal rescues do nothing to fix the underlying insolvency of Greece which requires a grand balance sheet reset, one where the Greece revenues and outlays are sustainable in the long-run and not just until the next all time high of the S&P500, everyone – from the top unelected European technocrat to the lowliest IMF and Deutsche Bank analyst peddled a lie that “Greece (and by extension Europe) was fixed.

For those still unconvinced that it was an absolutely epic lie, because while stocks were soaring as the lies piled up higher and higher, this is what happened. From Bruegel which is shocked, shocked to find that Greek GDP fell “much more than was foreseen in the adjustment programmes“:

After 2010 the collapse of the Greek economy accelerated. GDP fell much more than was foreseen in the adjustment programmes. The big question is whether all of this collapse was inevitable given the unsustainable character of the pre-crisis growth model of Greece, or if the two Troika programmes exacerbated the output fall.

Yes, it was inevitable, because just like the Troika pretended to reform the insolvent Greek balance sheet, so Greece pretended to implement structural reforms. Visually:

Greek GDP vs forecasts_0

That this would happen was obvious to all but the most pathological Eurofanatics. They can be excused: they were ideologues and demagogues, whose failed vision will lead to at least one lost Greek generation.

It is all those others, who knew that what was shown above was coming and still pushed for every deal that would delay the inevitable and only benefit Europe’s banks and lead to massive shareholders gains at the expense of one European nation’s terminal collapse, who are truly at fault.

It is those people from whom the Greek population, which now truly has nothing left to lose, should demand an “explanation” if nothing more.

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2 Responses to “Greek GDP: The Shocking Reality Vs IMF Forecasts; And Who Is To Blame For The Greek Implosion”

  1. Marilyn Gjerdrum Says:

    I would venture to say that the GDP chart shown above could be applied to all western nations in the Euro, US and Japan. All our countries have debt to GDP in triple digits. Once debt to GDP extends beyond 100%, it means that every cent that comes in is already owed elsewhere……..and that is the plight of every western nation.

    Greece is simply the first domino to fall, not the only country in trouble.

    History has proved again and again, nations cannot print their way out of financial trouble…………

  2. Marilyn Gjerdrum Says:

    For the fun of it, I went to http://www.USdebtclock.org and took down a few numbers showing debt to GDP of western nations, and that of emerging nations……

    Nation: Public Debt to GDP External debt to GDP
    UK 92.1% 317%
    France 94.8 201
    Germany 80 159.8
    Greece 173 217
    Ireland 127.2 817.1
    Italy 135.8 126.5
    Portugal 129.7 234.7
    Spain 97.3 160
    USA 73.8 98
    Japan 229 58.2
    Canada 86.2 81.6

    France, Germany, Italy and Spain are dictating to Greece while holding nearly all of Greek debt…………….Who are they to tell anyone how to act economically? They are supposedly the strong nations of the Euro?

    Brazil 59.3 22
    India 51.7 19.8
    Mexico 37.5 34.2
    Russia 7.9 39.7
    Saudis 12.1 20.8
    South Korea 35.7 27.2
    China 22.7 6.4

    You might need to straighten the numbers……..but these are today’s from the world page………..

    Who will win this game of economic chicken? History can give the answer to those willing to face the truth………….It isn’t the west.

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