“Not for Distribution, Internal Use Only”: US Energy Dept. estimated Fukushima release up to 10,000 times larger than nuclear regulators predicted — ‘Supercore’ scenario an underestimate?

NFD

Tokyo-supercore-redact

“Not for Distribution, Internal Use Only”: US Energy Dept. estimated Fukushima release up to 10,000 times larger than nuclear regulators predicted — ‘Supercore’ scenario an underestimate? (ENENews, Sep 9, 2014):

Ocean Plume Modeling for the Fukushima Daiichi Event (pdf) — US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, National Weather Service, Sept. 2013:

> Estimates of contamination

  • “Coastal releases ignored. According to TEPCO estimates, coastal releases are 1% of atmospheric… Not important for far-field estimates (i.e., exposure for US territories)”
  • “Scenarios used [are] NRC source scenario [and] DOE Supercore source scenario”
  • Regarding Cs-137 release estimates, “NRC and DOE differ by three orders of magnitude” [i.e. DOE estimate is 1,000 to 9,999 times more than NRC]
  • “Enormous uncertainty in total amount of contamination released at FDNPP”
  • “Differences between NRC &  DOE sources are crippling from a scientific perspective”
  • “DOE much too high at… JAMSTEC observation line 30km offshore [and] overestimates Cs-137 by order of magnitude [predicting a] maxima of around 100 Bq/L for Cs-137… JAMSTEC realistic contamination levels would be factor 10 smaller (10 Bq/L).”

Is DOE’s 100 Bq/L an ‘Overestimate’?

  • The above report by the federal government claims to use ‘realistic’ data from the JAMSTEC line (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology) of 10 Bq/L for Cs-137. However, JAMSTEC measured a maxima of 186 Bq/L for Cs137 at 30km off the Fukushima coast — nearly double the DOE ‘overestimate’.
  • The Science Council of Japan: “Oceanic monitoring… identified that 100 Bq/L or more of 137Cs had been diffused to the north and south.”

DOE’s estimate based on the ‘supercore’ scenario came rather close to predicting actual Cs-137 levels observed in samples from the Pacific Ocean — if anything, it appears to be an underestimate.

The reactor conditions assumed in DOE’s ‘supercore’ scenario have been redacted from FOIA documents. However it’s likely that the ‘supercore’ was among the worst-case scenarios discussed by the US government. As reported by Echo News,  around 5 different worst-cases were in play — “I still won’t let anybody use the word ‘worst case’ in the room here because there’s about five worst cases.” –NRC’s Director of Nuclear Security & Incident Response

See also: “There is spent fuel and pellets and whatever all over the place around the plant” -NRC’s Top Man in Japan — Trying to clean it up, but dose still going to be incredible

1 thought on ““Not for Distribution, Internal Use Only”: US Energy Dept. estimated Fukushima release up to 10,000 times larger than nuclear regulators predicted — ‘Supercore’ scenario an underestimate?

  1. This disaster is going to throw a monkey wrench into the high tech totalitarian plans for our world……..it will kill billions…..and send the entire planet into a nightmare scenario such as Hollywood futuristic horror movies never envisioned……
    It is happening already. Look at the poor sea lions, their internal organs are falling down inside of them……..fish are dead…….soon, all of us will follow.
    This isn’t a problem for our descendants, it is happening right now….

Leave a Comment