France’s CEREA Simulation Map Shows US More Contaminated Than Western Japan

Map of Cesium-137 Deposition Across the Pacific by CEREA Shows the US More Contaminated Than Western Japan (EX-SKF, August 31, 2011):

France’s CEREA has the simulation map of ground deposition of cesium-137 from the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant accident on its “Fukushima” page. It not only shows Japan but also the entire northern Pacific Rim, from Russian Siberia to Alaska to the West Coast of the US to the entire US.

According to the map, the US, particularly the West Coast and particularly California, may be more contaminated with radioactive cesium than the western half of Japan or Hokkaido. It looks more contaminated than South Korea or China. Canada doesn’t look too well either, particularly along the border with US on the western half.

From CEREA’s Fukushima page:

Atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from the Fukushima-Daichii nuclear power plant

CEREA, joint laboratory École des Ponts ParisTech and EdF R&D
Victor Winiarek, Marc Bocquet, Yelva Roustan, Camille Birman, Pierre Tran

Map of ground deposition of caesium-137 for the Fukushima-Daichii accident.

The simulation was performed with a specific version of the numerical atmospheric chemistry and transport model Polyphemus/Polair3D. The parametrisations used for the transport and physical removal of the radionuclides are described in [1,2,3,4].

The magnitude of the deposition field is uncertain and the simulated values of deposited radionuclides could be significantly different from the actual deposition. In particular, the source term remains uncertain. Therefore, these results should be seen as preliminary and they are likely to be revised as new information become available to better constrain the source term and when radionuclides data can be used to evaluate the model simulation results.

The page also has the animated simulation of cesium-137 dispersion from March 11 to April 6, 2011. If the Japanese think they are the only ones who have the radiation and radioactive fallout from the accident, they are very much mistaken, if the simulation is accurate. (Meteorological institutes and bureaus in Austria, Germany, and Norway all had similar simulation maps.)

Radioactive materials spewed out of Fukushima I Nuke Plant went up and away on the jet stream, reaching the other side of the Pacific. When the fallout from explosions (March 14, 15) reached the US West Coast, it came with an unusually heavy rainfall in California.

CEREA’s description of the animation (To view the animation visit:  CEREA’s page):

Movie of the Fukushima-Daichii activity in the air (caesium-137, ground level)

The simulation was performed with a specific version of the numerical atmospheric chemistry and transport model Polyphemus/Polair3D. The parametrisations used for the transport and physical removal of the radionuclides are described in [1,2,3,4].

The magnitude of activity concentration field is uncertain and could be significantly different from the actual one. In particular, the source term remains uncertain. Therefore, these results should be seen as preliminary and they are likely to be revised as new information become available to better constrain the source term and when radionuclides data can be used to evaluate the model simulation results.

Atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from the Fukushima-Daichii nuclear power plant

CEREA, joint laboratory École des Ponts ParisTech and EdF R&D

Victor Winiarek, Marc Bocquet

Yelva Roustan, Camille Birman, Pierre Tran

Map of ground deposition of caesium-137 for the Fukushima-Daichii accident.

The simulation was performed with a specific version of the numerical atmospheric chemistry and transport model Polyphemus/Polair3D. The parametrisations used for the transport and physical removal of the radionuclides are described in [1,2,3,4].

The magnitude of the deposition field is uncertain and the simulated values of deposited radionuclides could be significantly different from the actual deposition. In particular, the source term remains uncertain. Therefore, these results should be seen as preliminary and they are likely to be revised as new information become available to better constrain the source term and when radionuclides data can be used to evaluate the model simulation results.

Map of ground deposition of caesium-137 for the Chernobyl accident

The simulation was performed with a specific version of the numerical atmospheric chemistry and transport model Polyphemus/Polair3D. The parametrisation used for the transport and physical removal of the radionuclides are described in [1,2,3,4].

The magnitude of the deposition field is uncertain and the simulated value of deposited radionuclides could be different from the actual from the actual deposition. However the source term is much better known than for Fukushima-Daichii. A comparison with deposition measurements will be conducted to evaluate the simulation.

Movie of the Fukushima-Daichii activity in the air (caesium-137, ground level)

The simulation was performed with a specific version of the numerical atmospheric chemistry and transport model Polyphemus/Polair3D. The parametrisations used for the transport and physical removal of the radionuclides are described in [1,2,3,4].

The magnitude of activity concentration field is uncertain and could be significantly different from the actual one. In particular, the source term remains uncertain. Therefore, these results should be seen as preliminary and they are likely to be revised as new information become available to better constrain the source term and when radionuclides data can be used to evaluate the model simulation results.

Dispersion of radionuclides in the ocean: see the coastal simulations of the Sirocco team here.

References:

  1. Towards the operational estimation of a radiological plume using data assimilation after a radiological accidental atmospheric release

    Victor Winiarek, Julius Vira, Marc Bocquet, Mikhail Sofiev and Olivier Saunier. Atmos. Env., 45, 2944-2955, 2011.

  2. Targeting of observations for accidental atmospheric release monitoring

    Rachid Abida and Marc Bocquet. Atmos. Env., 43, 6312-6327, 2009.

  3. Inverse modelling-based reconstruction of the Chernobyl source term available for long-range transport

    Xavier Davoine and Marc Bocquet, Atmo. Chem. Phys., 7, 1549-1564, 2007.

  4. Validation of the Polyphemus platform on the ETEX, Chernobyl and Algeciras cases

    Denis Quélo, Monika Krysta, Marc Bocquet, Olivier Isnard, Yannick Minier and Bruno Sportisse, Atmos. Env., 41, 5300-5315, 2007.

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